the 2023 speaker of the house voting thread of implosion

[SydneyCarton 48081]

1 minute ago, hayden_horn said:

could you imagine a democratic speaker of a republican house for even one hour?

jesus mary

Don't threaten me with a good time, motherfucker. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26447]

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Walk me through how

212-203-19

turns into a majority for the 212 if the only change is that the 212 gets smaller. 

That would not need to be the only change. That’s what I was saying earlier. You would need a massive democrat cushion at the end of the alphabet while also ahead as a result of some GOP members voting “present” or not voting altogether. For example, if 11 of the 19 GOP holdouts (or 11 other GOP members) get frustrated and bail, Jeffries has 212/223

 

[WBT 20562]

2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

LOL Fox Co-anchor was just talking about the possibility of the Democrats getting Jeffries to be the Speaker of the House if a few unhappy Republicans go that way.

I’m not sure how many boomer cardiac events that just caused.

In non-fairyland some Ds could vote McCarthy in as the lesser of two evils over Jordan.  Or some other compromise R.

[hayden_horn 11362]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I don't think there are any more demands, dude. He's given in on everything we know that has been asked. He agreed to vote the threshold to oust the speaker to 5 votes, he agreed to investigate Biden(s), he agreed to investigate the DOJ, FBI, etc. They're not voting for him because they don't fucking like him. What else could he give in on that he hasn't already?

that's the whole fucking deal. like recognizes like. he caved to them spinelessly, ergo, they don't respect him for being spineless and they don't like him, and they are doing it because they can. that's the most important thing to understand about trump hardliners. they are fucking with shit because they can.

[Beau Vine 54213]

And Fox News has given up and is covering the Idaho murder suspect now.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

No, it still doesn't. Moving votes around between the 203 and 19 doesn't change the total. You can't turn a minority into a majority only by lowering the minority.

crazypills.gif

Ok--I see your point.  

Sorry for the derail.  This is what happens when a lawyer tries to do math on one screen while trying to write a brief and return emails on two others.

[hayden_horn 11362]

remember this: it's never about what they can accomplish. it's about what they can prevent from being accomplished. 

it's really that simple. if they are in a position to obstruct something, anything, they will, because fuck you.

usually i respect that kind of fuck you equanimity, but in this case it's pretty destructive in a non-constructive way. 

[henrygandorf 29189]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I don't think there are any more demands, dude. He's given in on everything we know that has been asked. He agreed to vote the threshold to oust the speaker to 5 votes, he agreed to investigate Biden(s), he agreed to investigate the DOJ, FBI, etc. They're not voting for him because they don't fucking like him. What else could he give in on that he hasn't already?

i mentioned it earlier but it bears repeating - per cnn, the resisters, when asked what they wanted from mccarthy, their response was, "for him not to be speaker".  so yeah, that's not really a negotiating chip.

also worth mentioning that mtg has been voting mccarthy this whole time, so she already has what she wants, and i am already horrified at whatever it is.  if she's smart (lol) she's already worked the same deal with scalise or whomever steps in.

if not, she will 100% gum up the works on the later ballots.

[hayden_horn 11362]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Ok--I see your point.  

Sorry for the derail.  This is what happens when a lawyer tries to do math on one screen while trying to write a brief and return emails on two others.

a determined, never wrong, yet distracted lawyer vs a flabbergasted, never wrong, "the math is right, though" statistician? who would've predicted this could happen?

[SydneyCarton 48081]

2 minutes ago, WBT said:

In non-fairyland some Ds could vote McCarthy in as the lesser of two evils over Jordan.  Or some other compromise R.

McCarthy agreed to a 5 vote threshold to remove the speaker and have him replaced to this nutjobs. He gest elected and he's basically their puppet for 2 years regardless. In that situation, you tell me how that fucktard is any better than Gym Jordan would be? Because to me they're fucking both spiderman pointing to each other. 

I'm hoping we see an actually reasonable Republican show up and get the democratics behind him to vote for an actual moderate fucking Speaker. 

[DDD Dad 14335]

15 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Is there any chance that we're in a perpetual 212-203-19 voting hell for months and shit like the debt ceiling expires because the House can't vote to extend it?

Asking for a friend on the ledge...

I'm in Dry January so I really don't want to be on the ledge right now.

[Beau Vine 54213]

12 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

No, it still doesn't. Moving votes around between the 203 and 19 doesn't change the total. You can't turn a minority into a majority only by lowering the minority.

crazypills.gif

[Huckleberry 32856]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

That would not need to be the only change. That’s what I was saying earlier. You would need a massive democrat cushion at the end of the alphabet while also ahead as a result of some GOP members voting “present” or not voting altogether. For example, if 11 of the 19 GOP holdouts (or 11 other GOP members) get frustrated and bail, Jeffries has 212/223

 

But it still doesn't help Jeffries for even a single Democrat not to vote for him. It would never help him. Even in your example he wins by keeping all 212. But I think this has been proven now so let's stick to stuff that might happen. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26447]

The DEMOCRATS!

 

[SydneyCarton 48081]

1 minute ago, hayden_horn said:

a determined, never wrong, yet distracted lawyer vs a flabbergasted, never wrong, "the math is right, though" statistician? who would've predicted this could happen?

I know that we all were praying that it never would happen, regardless. 

[DDD Dad 14335]

1 minute ago, hayden_horn said:

a determined, never wrong, yet distracted lawyer vs a flabbergasted, never wrong, "the math is right, though" statistician? who would've predicted this could happen?

Anastasis.  

[Ghost of LL 15531]

8 minutes ago, pacman said:

I'd say it might be worth it to negotiate with McCarthy but he isn't worth trusting. The alternative, him giving in to MAGA demands or allowing Jordan to be elected is pretty sickening though.

That's the problem both the Lunatics and the Democrats have--they can't vote for McCarthy because they can't trust him to fulfill any of his promises.

[hayden_horn 11362]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I know that we all were praying that it never would happen, regardless. 

problem is, we all knew one thing: one of them was going to be goddamned right in the end, that's for sure.

[pacman 7355]

Quote

Conservatives will vote for Jim Jordan on third ballot too, GOP Rep. Bob Good says

From CNN's Manu Raju

Conservatives will vote for Rep. Jim Jordan on the third ballot too, according to GOP Rep. Bob Good.

Good told CNN that he expects Jordan’s support to grow.

He said the fact that Jordan doesn’t want the gavel is “exactly” why they want him.

 

[Pig Bellmont 8715]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm hoping we see an actually reasonable Republican show up and get the democratics behind him to vote for an actual moderate fucking Speaker.

[Ted Lange 16084]

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26447]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

But it still doesn't help Jeffries for even a single Democrat not to vote for him. It would never help him. Even in your example he wins by keeping all 212. But I think this has been proven now so let's stick to stuff that might happen. 

Yeah, agreed. That’s kinda what I was saying earlier. There’s no realistic scenario where it would matter.

[TexasHooch 5122]

 

[henrygandorf 29189]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The DEMOCRATS!

 

mccarthy's ceiling looks like 203 so far, so it would take a lot of dems bailing for it to matter.  again, mccarthy is not close.

the more this goes on, the worse the gop house leadership looks.  the dems should sit back and let it go on for weeks.  there's no upside to voting for mccarthy right now.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The DEMOCRATS!

 

This sounds like a gambit to try to get Republicans to be absent (or to give them an excuse for their absence).

[Beau Vine 54213]

13 minutes ago, pacman said:

I'd say it might be worth it to negotiate with McCarthy but he isn't worth trusting.

That would also be a death sentence for KMc.

[Bateshorn 9927]

12 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Is there any chance that we're in a perpetual 212-203-19 voting hell for months and shit like the debt ceiling expires because the House can't vote to extend it?

Asking for a friend on the ledge...

I honestly don’t know.  In theory, if the Senate were to pass a debt limit increase, a member could introduce a discharge petition on the Senate bill that if it garnered enough signatures (218) would eventually ripen on to the action calendar and force the House to vote on the measure.  It takes 30-ish days for that to occur if a special dispensation is not given by Rules.

Ive been advising my client to expect an extended government shut down in 2024.

 

[RDCanecutter 26413]

10 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

And Fox News has given up and is covering the Idaho murder suspect now.

Local Raht-Wang radio has switched to talking about tornado warnings.

I mean, we do have tornado warnings. But they seem somewhat relieved about it.

[hayden_horn 11362]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's the problem both the Lunatics and the Democrats have--they can't vote for McCarthy because they can't trust him to fulfill any of his promises.

nobody can, and they all know it.

problem is that mccarthy has promised everything to everyone and the minority knows his acquiescence is bullshit, because he is bullshit. that's why this is so entertaining. he sold his soul for this, so much so that principles don't really matter any longer.

well, promises made, fucker. there are a hell of a lot more than 19 republicans that don't believe him. this will be interesting.

[C-Man 27218]

38 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Jim Jordan, at least he’ll help cover up sex abuse scandals around the capitol ! 
 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/06/politics/jordan-osu-wrestlers-strauss-invs/index.html

Not quick enough to save Madison Cawthorn's career.

 

27 minutes ago, 'stache said:

So what's the import here? Either way a shitheel is gonna get the job, right? They're basically all the fucking same at this point.

Correct. While I love seeing McCarthy not win this, if the alternative is fucking Gym Jordan -- uh, not good, buddy.

[YGIFS 19450]

18 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

LOL Fox Co-anchor was just talking about the possibility of the Democrats getting Jeffries to be the Speaker of the House if a few unhappy Republicans go that way.

I’m not sure how many boomer cardiac events that just caused.

That would explain why FoxNews just ran an ad between segments for "Oops, I Crapped my Pants."

"To our viewers at home, it seems through some voting technicalities...the new GOP-led Speaker of the House is a black Democrat named Hakeem."

"Do 'Oops, I Crapped my Pants really work?"

"They certainly do.  And I just did."  

 

---and truly remarkable---most significant Speaker race in our country in over a century.  And it involves the Republicans.  And FoxNews has decided to do their 137th background story on the Idaho murders.  I wonder much adderal Tucker is doing right now in anticipation of his show tonight?  

Edited January 3, 2023 by YGIFS

[hayden_horn 11362]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

mccarthy's ceiling looks like 203 so far, so it would take a lot of dems bailing for it to matter.  again, mccarthy is not close.

the more this goes on, the worse the gop house leadership looks.  the dems should sit back and let it go on for weeks.  there's no upside to voting for mccarthy right now.

that's the thing most folks are missing. it's not close. these votes are supposed to be bespoke deals. they are done before they are called. 

this is a major fuck up in the republican party that they themselves have stoked. it's kind of incredible. i wouldn't believe it written in a novel. it's too bullshit. 

[hornmpa96 2618]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

I honestly don’t know.  In theory, if the Senate were to pass a debt limit increase, a member could introduce a discharge petition on the Senate bill that if it garnered enough signatures (218) would eventually ripen on to the action calendar and force the House to vote on the measure.  It takes 30-ish days for that to occur if a special dispensation is not given by Rules.

Ive been advising my client to expect an extended government shut down in 2024.

 

Would McCarthy rely on D votes to extend the debt ceiling and fund the government?

They can’t even elect a Speaker. We are so fucked.

[hobbes2702 13032]

14 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

That would not need to be the only change. That’s what I was saying earlier. You would need a massive democrat cushion at the end of the alphabet while also ahead as a result of some GOP members voting “present” or not voting altogether. For example, if 11 of the 19 GOP holdouts (or 11 other GOP members) get frustrated and bail, Jeffries has 212/223

 

I was under the impression that if members don’t vote or vote present that you would no longer need the full majority, just majority of those who cast a ballot for a person.

So if only 420 cast votes for a person you would only need the majority of that 420, not the majority of 435

[henrygandorf 29189]

4 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Correct. While I love seeing McCarthy not win this, if the alternative is fucking Gym Jordan -- uh, not good, buddy.

jordan is not a realistic option.  even jordan didn't vote for jordan.

[YGIFS 19450]

^

True, Hobbes.  But what makes it tricky is some people are voting present/abstain in one round, then going back in to vote for a person in another round.  Not many, but enough to tip the scales in aggregate.  It's human behavior and/or pouting that will  swing this thing, not mathematical division.  

Edited January 3, 2023 by YGIFS

[Bozo_Casanova 26447]

19 minutes ago, WBT said:

In non-fairyland some Ds could vote McCarthy in as the lesser of two evils over Jordan.  Or some other compromise R.

 

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This sounds like a gambit to try to get Republicans to be absent (or to give them an excuse for their absence).

Or, 16 D’s vote present/leave and pull the Great Motherfucker of all Ratfuckery to make McCarthy speaker.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Bozo_Casanova

[DDD Dad 14335]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Or, 16 D’s vote present and pull the Great Motherfucker of all Ratfuckery to make McCarthy speaker.

Is there a way we can turn this discussion towards a certain menu option in Miami?

[hobbes2702 13032]

1 minute ago, YGIFS said:

^

True, Hobbes.  But what makes it tricky is some people are voting present/abstain in one round, then going back in to vote for a person in another round.  Not many, but enough to tip the scales in aggregate.  It's human behavior and/or pouting that will  swing this thing, not mathematical division.  

Got it got it that makes sense now. Thanks for the clarity 

[hayden_horn 11362]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Or, 16 D’s vote present/leave and pull the Great Motherfucker of all Ratfuckery to make McCarthy speaker.

now this...i don't know. i might overdose already, it's not a done thing, but i'm close. this would do it.

[hobbes2702 13032]

Dems shouldn’t do anything that can potentially speed up this process. They should continue voting for Jeffries and watching the republicans squirm for days if need be

[Hefeweizen 5311]

3 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Is there a way we can turn this discussion towards a certain menu option in Miami?

Don’t derail the shitshow, please.

[DDD Dad 14335]

3 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Don’t derail the shitshow, please.

 

[Beau Vine 54213]

At what point does Lindell burst into chambers and claim that these votes are rigged?

[Bateshorn 9927]

12 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Would McCarthy rely on D votes to extend the debt ceiling and fund the government?

They can’t even elect a Speaker. We are so fucked.

I was under the impression he had to accept a reintroduction of the Hastert Rule to appease the loons. Which means a majority of the majority. 
 

So no.  I suspect the mod R’s would not allow the debt to default and do a discharge.  But I do envision a stoppage of agency funding at some point.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Bateshorn

[YGIFS 19450]

Just now, hobbes2702 said:

Got it got it that makes sense now. Thanks for the clarity 

Yeah, the strategy isn't 218 or 210 or whatever.  That's a futile exercise.  And I think we all understand ratios and algebra.  

The big unknown here is who will decide to vote present/abstain for the rest of the day?  McCarthy's worry isn't 218, that ship sailed.  It's now about getting certain back to the floor to vote or just vote present and not fucking the denominator up or down.

Remember that these are very old people.  Sure there's the occasion all-nighter for some big bill or war declaration.  But once you make that one vote, you're done.  And you can even sneak off for a nap or meal or bowel movement while the speeches are going on.  But for a Speaker vote, these folks will just go on a continual loop through the alphabet over and over again.  Longer into the night/morning this goes, the higher the chances this whole thing is settled by the fact that some 88 year old Congressman went to lie down or somebody had explosive sharts or somebody needed to go have a few drinks.  It'll be the people not on the floor when there name is called.  This is about the biggest cat-herding disaster in quite awhile.  You're gonna have pages and interns chasing down people in bathrooms 'n shit.  Or encouraging older members to "grab a nap, we'll come get you when it's getting closer to your name", and then not show back up. \

Herding cats, only the cats have dementia and the herder is mescaline.    

[jimmyjazz 45903]

 

[WBT 20562]

1 minute ago, YGIFS said:

And I think we all understand ratios and algebra.  

strong disagree

[Gatorubet 30219]

Scalise running for Speaker bashing Biden on the guise of supporting McCarthy.   Interdasting. 

[hayden_horn 11362]

the democrats are openly laughing at the republicans.

seriously, if that isn't enough to shame the trumpies, i'm not sure anything can. were they just chanting "be strong?"