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the 2023 speaker of the house voting thread of implosion

henrygandorf

By henrygandorf
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jim got all dressed up for his big day...

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Macanudo

Macanudo 12926

Posted
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17 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Unfortunately this needs to be painful so that the country continues to see the ineptitude and indifference this party has towards legislating. 

You forget that 30-35% of this country is incapable of that.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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As I see it, there's 5 ways out:
  1. McCarthy stands aside willingly
  2. McCarthy makes a deal with the Dems
  3. McCarthy makes a deal with the holdouts
  4. Plurality vote
  5. McCarthy voters get sick of this and move en masse to a backup choice (Scalise?)



I think #1 would appear to happen before #5. In other words, I could see a bunch of Republicans telling McCarthy to stand aside “willingly” or they would pull their votes. As bad as it looks for McCarthy now, if he starts losing by 30 or 40 votes it would be colossally ugly. If he were to withdraw now, maybe he has a shot in two months after the next revolt. If he publicly loses a bigger chunk of the caucus, I don’t see that ever happening, especially since his unwillingness to stand aside would certainly be remembered.
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Bullneck

Bullneck 18987

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2 hours ago, bolverk said:

I was just checking some bipartisanship scoresheet for House members from the last congress, and Brian Fitzpatrick-PA looks like he would be a Republican that could pull Democratic votes. I didn't anything about him until reading his wiki page, and he seems like he'd work from my liberal/progressive standpoint. He's probably too liberal for the majority of Republicans, but it's still interesting to work down the left hand column rankings to see who all fit the "bipartisan" bill.

https://www.thelugarcenter.org/assets/htmldocuments/117_BPI_House.pdf

My company has an office in his district (south Bucks County) and his signs are all about how "independent" he is and there's never a mention of his party, so I always figured he was a Republican who was ashamed to say so.  

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

Posted
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31 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Unfortunately this needs to be painful so that the country continues to see the ineptitude and indifference this party has towards legislating. 

The majority of the country sees it.  The rest of the country could watch the party gun people down on Fifth Avenue, and they'd believe it was the Dems fault because Fox News told them so.

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Js1

Js1 85108

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1 minute ago, pacman said:

Agree, shutting down American government is exactly what they want the Rs to do.

They seem to forget that they almost always get blamed for government shutdowns too 

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SmokeyTheBear

SmokeyTheBear 5562

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

The majority of the country sees it.  The rest of the country could watch the party gun people down on Fifth Avenue, and they'd believe it was the Dems fault because Fox News told them so.

Oh I'm aware we still have 30-35% of the country that is lost, but up to now theyve been largely unified. What we are seeing is a complete breakdown of commonality within that party. Their direct attack on the left is now going inward, and even against Trump. We need those who have been on the fence regarding moving back to the GOP post-Trump to see that the party has no order, and no actual legislating ethos. If they can't figure this shit out and it ends up with military not getting paid, VA not getting served, reaction to world events being hampered; that's when real real change happens in people's minds regarding the political dynamics at play and how it relates to their day to day. Not the typical virtual reality of fear they've been pumped by the Far Right infosphere. Real pain. 

Edited by SmokeyTheBear
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47876

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12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They seem to forget that they almost always get blamed for government shutdowns too 

That memory doesn’t seem to last long, the tickets keep getting elected. 
 

that being said, if they shut the government down this time for an extended period, I actually feel like they will be slaughtered in 2024. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9899

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2 hours ago, C-Man said:

Sure but aren't there 400+ reps who are sick of the 20 lunatics -- you only need 218 of those to pass the rules package?

You need 218 if 430-ish are voting. If less vote, you need less of “a majority of the majority “ I don’t want to summon our resident math demon, so I won’t mention his name. 

But the Rules is where the basic operating procedure of  the House for the 218th Congress is established. Motions to recommit, membership of committees, subpoena rules, amendment rules, delays to read bills before floor action, blah, etc. 

The GOP Holdouts want something in writing so McCarthy can’t cut a deal with the Dems.  Because everyone knows McCarthy is a first class liar.

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Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8691

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1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

"Chip Roy is going to bring 10 votes THIS MORNING" was the scuttlebutt last night, so forgive me for ignoring the McCarthy-is-negotiating rumors.  It's like Scott Boras talking about all the offers his .212-hitting first baseman client is getting. 

Exactly. This seems more like a leak from McCarthy’s camp trying to speak “momentum” into existence. It didn’t result in anything yesterday and I see no reason to believe any differently 

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Js1

Js1 85108

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Exactly. This seems more like a leak from McCarthy’s camp trying to speak “momentum” into existence. It didn’t result in anything yesterday and I see no reason to believe any differently 

F98C0A13-FE9A-45B3-81EC-8503F655799C.thumb.jpeg.7aff71d86cdf6c263f92a6f6c01d1624.jpeg

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15489

Posted
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20 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

You need 218 if 430-ish are voting. If less vote, you need less of “a majority of the majority “ I don’t want to summon our resident math demon, so I won’t mention his name. 

But the Rules is where the basic operating procedure of  the House for the 218th Congress is established. Motions to recommit, membership of committees, subpoena rules, amendment rules, delays to read bills before floor action, blah, etc. 

The GOP Holdouts want something in writing so McCarthy can’t cut a deal with the Dems.  Because everyone knows McCarthy is a first class liar.

What's the enforcement mechanism for anything that Kevin McCarthy puts into writing?  

It just seems to me that the written promise is just as meaningless as any other McCarthy promise.  He'll say, "yeah, I put it in writing, but it was under duress and I agreed to something I never intended to deliver for the good of the country."  And you know what--enough people would go along with that.

Either Kevin McCarthy's word is good, or it isn't.  And his word isn't worth shit.

 

 

*** By the way, I do think there's value in having a written agreement if the agreement is so complicated that you don't want to rely on anyone's individual memory.  But that doesn't seem to be the situation here.  They want it in writing so that they could hold him to it because nobody trusts McCarthy's word.  But that's pointless.

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