2023 Houston Texans Offseason - A Huge #2

[Rip76 4,891]

Someone posted this on a Texans FB page.  Not happening, but just an idea.

 

[Murfdogg21 4,398]

18 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Is this your first draft?

Consensus “ratings” are absolutely meaningless after the first like 20 picks.

Sure, and consensus ratings might not mean much in the first 20 either. But a consensus top 30 player probably has better odds of success than a consensus #100 player. 
 

My default position is that Caserio is an idiot who thinks he’s smarter or more analytics driven than other GMs. The 2 first round picks last year are still TBD but aren’t looking good. His 2021 draft didn’t have a first or second round pick, but he reached on every player that draft (Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan can be below average contributors. Congrats?). This year he bet the farm on Anderson (who they should’ve taken #2 sans trade), either to appease Demeco or more likely in a win-now panic over his own job plus convince Cal it will excite the fan base and sell tickets. He stayed put and didn’t trade up to get the C Schmitz, which is fine, except as soon as Schmitz went off the board, then Caserio spent picks to trade up and get his next highest rated C. Did he have to trade up to get Juice? If he was willing to trade up, why not a couple picks earlier to get Schmitz? Hopefully Tank does great at WR and PR, but Hyatt is a Will Fuller type homerun threat that would’ve paired well on the outside with Metchie in slot. Now we have Metchie and Tank…who plays outside? In the 4th, he traded twice when players like Ringo, Utah CB, Roschon, and the other Ohio St. OT on the board. 
 

Even prior to Caserio, the Texans have a history of taking very long shots in rounds 5-7 (maybe 4th too) that hang out on the practice squad for a year then get cut. Before you say most 5-7th picks are long shots, teams that draft guys that have slipped for whatever reason, or take guys with blue chip pasts from P5 programs have better odds of late blooming and making a roster than the DT from Eastern Kinnesaw St. or the TE from Pontius Pilate Plilates D3.

Last year the Jets were the post draft darlings, and it turned out correct. This year it’s the Eagles followed by the Giants, and neither team had to make trades to get good players lower than their perceived value. You look at Houston’s draft and if Stroud and Anderson aren’t both stars, it was a fuckup. If Juice and Tank can’t be a contributors, it was a fail. Is anyone seriously expected regular season contributions from anyone taken after Tank? They might as well have traded their 4ths, 5th, 6ths, and 7th for another good 3rd round pick if that’s how Caserio drafts/evaluates. 

[Murfdogg21 4,398]

15 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Someone posted this on a Texans FB page.  Not happening, but just an idea.

This is awesome and about 7 years old. I think JJ Watt shared it when it first circulated. 
 

I understand Adams having trademark rights on the “Houston Oilers” name and logo, but I don’t know how they have rights to color schemes when so many teams have shared color palettes. The Oilers name would do more for the fans than Columbia blue, but the colors would go a long way. And if Adams has some claim on “Columbia blue”, why couldn’t the Texans say they will use Carolina or some other pastel blue with the “battle red” and “Liberty white” they already claim? Are the other owners really pro-Amy Adams over McNair+generally doing the right thing by NFL fans?

[Texzilla58 4,697]

Sure, and consensus ratings might not mean much in the first 20 either. But a consensus top 30 player probably has better odds of success than a consensus #100 player. 
 
My default position is that Caserio is an idiot who thinks he’s smarter or more analytics driven than other GMs. The 2 first round picks last year are still TBD but aren’t looking good. His 2021 draft didn’t have a first or second round pick, but he reached on every player that draft (Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan can be below average contributors. Congrats?). This year he bet the farm on Anderson (who they should’ve taken #2 sans trade), either to appease Demeco or more likely in a win-now panic over his own job plus convince Cal it will excite the fan base and sell tickets. He stayed put and didn’t trade up to get the C Schmitz, which is fine, except as soon as Schmitz went off the board, then Caserio spent picks to trade up and get his next highest rated C. Did he have to trade up to get Juice? If he was willing to trade up, why not a couple picks earlier to get Schmitz? Hopefully Tank does great at WR and PR, but Hyatt is a Will Fuller type homerun threat that would’ve paired well on the outside with Metchie in slot. Now we have Metchie and Tank…who plays outside? In the 4th, he traded twice when players like Ringo, Utah CB, Roschon, and the other Ohio St. OT on the board. 
 
Even prior to Caserio, the Texans have a history of taking very long shots in rounds 5-7 (maybe 4th too) that hang out on the practice squad for a year then get cut. Before you say most 5-7th picks are long shots, teams that draft guys that have slipped for whatever reason, or take guys with blue chip pasts from P5 programs have better odds of late blooming and making a roster than the DT from Eastern Kinnesaw St. or the TE from Pontius Pilate Plilates D3.
Last year the Jets were the post draft darlings, and it turned out correct. This year it’s the Eagles followed by the Giants, and neither team had to make trades to get good players lower than their perceived value. You look at Houston’s draft and if Stroud and Anderson aren’t both stars, it was a fuckup. If Juice and Tank can’t be a contributors, it was a fail. Is anyone seriously expected regular season contributions from anyone taken after Tank? They might as well have traded their 4ths, 5th, 6ths, and 7th for another good 3rd round pick if that’s how Caserio drafts/evaluates. 

Trading up rarely pays off it seems unless you’re going in Round 1 to get an impact player at a impact position. Trading down is usually more beneficial to the team trading down. Why? In those rounds the number of picks increases the odds of finding a player.

[Murfdogg21 4,398]

Fuck Amy Seaskunk Adams, her dad Bud, and the dead raccoon who lived on his head. 

[Harvdog 2,266]

15 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

So, we drafted two interior guys to replace our shitty OC, and we are looking for more interior OL since our 1st round OG from aggy is also shitty and we want to replace him. Great. Seems like we got this shit figured out. This franchise is so fucked with McNair and Caserio.

I completely disagree. In the past the Texans always made a safe pick. They did it in 2006 when Kubiag talked the owner into taking Mario Williams. The draft received an F for passing on Vince and Reggie.  Years later it was considered a A for all the great players. 
 

This year was different.  They got their QB.  They dropped their balls on the table and got their DE.  They added depth and players with a certain mindset.  Caserio was masterful. We have all our picks next year and we drafted 8 players that will compete to make this team better. This is the first draft where Caserio didn’t have Jack Easterby there to fuck things up.  Cal grew a set and made moves.  I am happy with the results and I give it an A-

[Rip76 4,891]

1 hour ago, Murfdogg21 said:

This is awesome and about 7 years old. I think JJ Watt shared it when it first circulated. 

Damn I never saw it.

Oh well, it’s pretty clean.

[Bevo 13,465]

1 hour ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Sure, and consensus ratings might not mean much in the first 20 either. But a consensus top 30 player probably has better odds of success than a consensus #100 player. 

Number of years in the NFL, pro bowls, or both? I'm curious to see the stats - I don't follow the NFL much anymore, but when I did, it seemed like the first round had more busts but more pro bowlers than the second round. The second round was filled with guys who performed at an elite level but didn't have the elite measurements of the first rounders. And the first round was filled with guys who were judged mainly on their potential (like Tyree Wilson, Myles Murphy) because of elite measurements. Looking at the draft this year, though, I'm not sure how accurate my take is anymore.

[tokamak 6,331]

1 hour ago, Murfdogg21 said:

This is awesome and about 7 years old. I think JJ Watt shared it when it first circulated. 
 

I understand Adams having trademark rights on the “Houston Oilers” name and logo, but I don’t know how they have rights to color schemes when so many teams have shared color palettes. The Oilers name would do more for the fans than Columbia blue, but the colors would go a long way. And if Adams has some claim on “Columbia blue”, why couldn’t the Texans say they will use Carolina or some other pastel blue with the “battle red” and “Liberty white” they already claim? Are the other owners really pro-Amy Adams over McNair+generally doing the right thing by NFL fans?

I’ve always been pro-Amy Adams, myself. 
 

Spoiler

 

[billfromlaketravis 11,301]

I find it ironic that the two NFL owners we hate the most are both Texas Exes. Cal and Amy Adams Strunk. 

[Saint Tacky 1,609]

16 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Antonio Johnson  #160 pick to Jags (5th Rd)

this is why they get the big bucks and I’m a couch potato

[tx ind 6,949]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I find it ironic that the two NFL owners we hate the most are both Texas Exes. Cal and Amy Adams Strunk. 

Neither of them did shit to be able to earn the right to own a team, was passed down to them.

[billfromlaketravis 11,301]

1 minute ago, tx ind said:

Neither of them did shit to be able to earn the right to own a team, was passed down to them.

Yep. NFL ownership is an impossibly exclusive club to get in to, so I doubt either will ever sell. 

[The Earl of Texas 3,129]

 

[tx 3 putt 75,850]

47 minutes ago, tx ind said:

Neither of them did shit to be able to earn the right to own a team, was passed down to them.

Cal is proof that a ut degree and rice mba can be bought and paid for. Also a letterman 

Cal’s mom owns the team 

Edited April 30, 2023 by tx 3 putt

[tx 3 putt 75,850]

48 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Yep. NFL ownership is an impossibly exclusive club to get in to, so I doubt either will ever sell. 

cal is selling when his mom passes. They’re getting $6bil + 

[tx 3 putt 75,850]

2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I find it ironic that the two NFL owners we hate the most are both Texas Exes. Cal and Amy Adams Strunk. 

amy Adams is a borderline Bond villain, she’s huuuge into fox hunting. Who the fuck fox hunts anymore ?

She’s not worth much for an nfl owner. If she doesn’t cash out, her kids will. The redskins sold for 6bil, cash. Hard to walk away from that type of money 

Edited April 30, 2023 by tx 3 putt

[TonyTexas 10,458]

12 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

cal is selling when his mom passes. They’re getting $6bil + 

Idk. An NFL club is a damn good investment. The McNairs have made 10X on the original $600M investment in 1999, not counting the $100M+ in annual operating income. Plus, that capital gains tax bill on a sale would be painful. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by TonyTexas

[tx 3 putt 75,850]

2 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Idk. An NFL club is a damn good investment. The McNairs have made 10X on the original $600M investment in 1999, not counting the $100M+ in annual operating income. Plus, that capital gains tax bill on a sale would be painful. 

Id guess it’s all set up as a trust 

all itlll take is Hanna to get hammered / humiliated in the press (over a period of time) and the fan base openly hating her 

[Park Gothic 4,915]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Yep. NFL ownership is an impossibly exclusive club to get in to, so I doubt either will ever sell. 

I know Ken Adams. He’s pretty active in the management of the team, he was basically raised with the understanding that he would run the show eventually. I doubt he would ever sell. 

[Gourmand 7,773]

48 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

cal is selling when his mom passes. They’re getting $6bil + 

Not a chance. What would ever motivate him to sell? 

Owning an NFL franchise is owning a money printer and I can't imagine the guy does much day-to-day work. He gets the fruits of others labors in a highly protected business environment with no outside competition. 

He doesn't need the liquid assets from selling the team, and if he wants money to buy expensive yachts, airplanes, and houses across the world, any bank will give him whatever he wants at zero percent interest. 

[Saint Tacky 1,609]

All of this because Bud Adams got shitfaced on a layover in Houston and missed his connection to New Orleans. 
 

[David Dennison 18,344]

5 hours ago, tx ind said:

Neither of them did shit to be able to earn the right to own a team, was passed down to them.

The old fashioned way.

[Frank Drebin 5,542]

8 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Idk. An NFL club is a damn good investment. The McNairs have made 10X on the original $600M investment in 1999, not counting the $100M+ in annual operating income. Plus, that capital gains tax bill on a sale would be painful. 

You get a stepped up basis at death.  
 

Issue would be estate taxes 

[Texzilla58 4,697]

Number of years in the NFL, pro bowls, or both? I'm curious to see the stats - I don't follow the NFL much anymore, but when I did, it seemed like the first round had more busts but more pro bowlers than the second round. The second round was filled with guys who performed at an elite level but didn't have the elite measurements of the first rounders. And the first round was filled with guys who were judged mainly on their potential (like Tyree Wilson, Myles Murphy) because of elite measurements. Looking at the draft this year, though, I'm not sure how accurate my take is anymore.

In general you are correct, and the numbers continue to move more to the 50/50 mean. In the past the numbers were skewed by draft bias, in that GMs were reluctant to admit failure and players were retained that would have been cut were they 6th round picks.

The harder measurable is how many of the top players aren’t busts but overdrafted but solid contributors. They can be solid pieces of your team but they aren’t pro bowlers.

[Murfdogg21 4,398]

9 hours ago, Park Gothic said:

I know Ken Adams. He’s pretty active in the management of the team, he was basically raised with the understanding that he would run the show eventually. I doubt he would ever sell. 

Can you have him tell his Aunt Amy to stop being such a stupid, vindictive bitch and return the Oilers name to the fans of Houston? Who is she spiting at this point? Most City of Houston and Harris County politicians from that 1990s era are either relocated and/or dead. 

[Park Gothic 4,915]

18 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Can you have him tell his Aunt Amy to stop being such a stupid, vindictive bitch and return the Oilers name to the fans of Houston? Who is she spiting at this point? Most City of Houston and Harris County politicians from that 1990s era are either relocated and/or dead. 

[The Earl of Texas 3,129]

Coming back to this thread under current topic:

[Brothahorn 10,081]

Id guess it’s all set up as a trust 
all itlll take is Hanna to get hammered / humiliated in the press (over a period of time) and the fan base openly hating her 

Hanna is too classy for that. Now, Cal on the other hand will get shitfaced and pull a Jerry Jones.

[TexasGolf 4,835]

21 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

cal is selling when his mom passes. They’re getting $6bil + 

nah he's the only one fighting for keeping it together...  his siblings on the other hand...

[tx ind 6,949]

23 hours ago, Saint Tacky said:

All of this because Bud Adams got shitfaced on a layover in Houston and missed his connection to New Orleans. 
 

What’s this story?

[Slacks 6,773]

So...  if CJ Stroud does well, how much does the S2 cognition testing industry stand to lose?  Or do they just say, "ha, he didn't score an 18%, silly... it was 81%."

[Slacks 6,773]

15 minutes ago, Slacks said:

So...  if CJ Stroud does well, how much does the S2 cognition testing industry stand to lose?  Or do they just say, "ha, he didn't score an 18%, silly... it was 81%."

Disregard... they already did the thing:

"What I will say is that the list of scores that I have seen, two of those scores are not accurate," Ally said during the appearance. "They're not accurate at all."

[Saint Tacky 1,609]

4 hours ago, tx ind said:

What’s this story?

Legend has it that Bud's dad staked him to some money and told Bud he had to get out of Oklahoma and make his own way in the world. Bud decided to try New Orleans, but he had a layover in Houston on his way there. During the layover, he met a bunch of wildcatters in the airport lounge and before long he was tanked up and had missed his connection. He decided to stick around for a few days and then to financially back the folks that had pitched a deal to him in the airport lounge. He never left. 

[Rip76 4,891]

33 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

Legend has it that Bud's dad staked him to some money and told Bud he had to get out of Oklahoma and make his own way in the world. Bud decided to try New Orleans, but he had a layover in Houston on his way there. During the layover, he met a bunch of wildcatters in the airport lounge and before long he was tanked up and had missed his connection. He decided to stick around for a few days and then to financially back the folks that had pitched a deal to him in the airport lounge. He never left. 

This is all I can picture.

 

[TonyTexas 10,458]

59 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

This is all I can picture.

This was the first thing that came to my mind

 

[tx 3 putt 75,850]

 

[tx 3 putt 75,850]

Pitiful ….

 

[Ignatius 3,987]

Better her than Jack Easterby. If Hannah had been in charge of Tommy Boy’s balls instead of Osteen Lite we’d have gotten more than a 2nd round pick and David fucking Johnson for De’Andre Hopkins….

[LTtxfan 48,761]

 

[Rip76 4,891]

Damn.

 

[Hate 20,081]

Yeah, their offensive line could be pretty decent next year.  At the very least, it isn't the worst unit on the team anymore. 

[billfromlaketravis 11,301]

53 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

Kind of psycho. But good psycho(?). 

[HtownHorn 14,365]

15 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Damn.

 

Brady was the QB, Brady's average time in pocket was 2.2 seconds which was tied for the quickest in the NFL. I think Mason is a huge upgrade, but he's likely going to give up more sacks with a rookie QB holding the ball.

[Hate 20,081]

They are going to move the pocket to help protect him.  His first year, he is likely to make a lot of plays with his legs as they will use play action bootlegs a big part of their offense.  He will have the options options at 2 different levels to throw to or run the ball if nobody is open.  I'd bet he is sacked fewer than 20 times this year.

[APMP 684]

Plenty of posts from me and other longtime posters demanding Stroud as the guy at #2. And plenty of posts from other longtime posters labeling him a bust before the draft.

Gonna be fun when receipts are shown.

[Murfdogg21 4,398]

8 hours ago, APMP said:

Plenty of posts from me and other longtime posters demanding Stroud as the guy at #2. And plenty of posts from other longtime posters labeling him a bust before the draft.

Gonna be fun when receipts are shown.

The receipts will have to include Paris Johnson and whoever else Arizona gets with a top 10 pick next year. I was team Draft Will Anderson or trade down, take a QB in 2024.

It will be interesting nonetheless to see if S2 scores are complete horseshit or not based on how Young and Stroud perform after a couple seasons, or if the Ohio State effect is real. 
Edit: Actually I was Team Fire Caserio for allowing Lovie enough serviceable players in Week 18 to win and lose the #1 pick. Bryce Young would’ve been a player most Texans fans could agree on. The difference between #1 and #2 pick was apparently a second, if not first, round pick. They gave away that value for nothing. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Murfdogg21

[APMP 684]

The receipts will have to include Paris Johnson and whoever else Arizona gets with a top 10 pick next year. I was team Draft Will Anderson or trade down, take a QB in 2024.
It will be interesting nonetheless to see if S2 scores are complete horseshit or not based on how Young and Stroud perform after a couple seasons, or if the Ohio State effect is real. 
Edit: Actually I was Team Fire Caserio for allowing Lovie enough serviceable players in Week 18 to win and lose the #1 pick. Bryce Young would’ve been a player most Texans fans could agree on. The difference between #1 and #2 pick was apparently a second, if not first, round pick. They gave away that value for nothing. 

Sure, that makes sense.

I believe the Texans draft board had Will Anderson at the top, and he was followed by Young/Stroud in some order, with not much of a gap between the two QBs.

So, I look at the trade capital to move up to #3 as basically the cost we were willing to pay to move up from 12 and draft a franchise QB, with the order in which Stroud/Anderson being drafted intended to avoid competing with others (including division rival Tennessee) for Stroud via Arizona's pick. If Stroud is indeed a franchise QB, I'm good with the cost being a LT and, say, a WR1 (Marvin Jr. ).

Lot of football to be played before we can assess, though.

[Brothahorn 10,081]

Plenty of posts from me and other longtime posters demanding Stroud as the guy at #2. And plenty of posts from other longtime posters labeling him a bust before the draft.

Gonna be fun when receipts are shown.

I didn't want him. But I would happily be wrong.

[Bevo 13,465]

10 minutes ago, Brothahorn said:

11 hours ago, APMP said:

Plenty of posts from me and other longtime posters demanding Stroud as the guy at #2. And plenty of posts from other longtime posters labeling him a bust before the draft.

Gonna be fun when receipts are shown.

I didn't want him. But I would happily be wrong.

I was fine with it. Kind of like the girl you meet at 2:00 at the bar. It's possible that she ends up being the one you marry but if not at least you gave it a try.