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Joe Biden 2023: The Dark Brandon Rises

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elfenix

elfenix 34,752

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10 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

so basically things are better for the middle class and the upper class is losing wealth? am I reading that correctly? if so, then good.

very well could be.  sucks if you need to buy a house or car after prices have gone way up (fueled in part by dirt cheap money, but there is also lack of supply involved in both) to suddenly be facing more historically 'normal' rates while still paying jacked-up prices. 

 

also, fewer union workers means fewer union contracts with COLA in them.  the ownership class never liked unions but liked them even less after the 70s averaged 6.8%. 

Edited by elfenix
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Longhorn_Fan68
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Joe drops in to lay his old wrinkly nuts on Marge's ape-like chin. x-post from her dumb thread  

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Just want to give a shout out to Dark Brandon The remainder of my wife's student loans were forgiven today She/we have been paying on them for 20 plus years We are now 100% debt free

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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I think a lot of it is demographics / overpopulation. The baby boomers and millennials are both massive generations. Boomers have been retiring  en masse for awhile now, but these people are still around buying cars and houses. Millennials got off to a slow start in life compared to earlier generations due to the Great Recession. Many of them are marrying later and looking for housing later.

both these generations are fighting over a limited supply of cars and housing. We need more to go around, but we just don’t make as much housing and cars as we did years ago. 

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HamsterHookah

HamsterHookah 112

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On 4/8/2023 at 11:06 AM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

so basically things are better for the middle class and the upper class is losing wealth? am I reading that correctly? if so, then good.

I don't think that is accurate.

The upper class is losing wealth, that much seems to be true, but I don't think it's making things better for the middle class. At least from what I've seen and experienced as a surly middle-classer (not a top 1% like most of you) is that interest rates sucks for mortgage payments, cars are more expensive, car insurance has spiked, groceries feel like they cost double, gas is high-ish, and the ole 401k was doing diddly squat most of 2022 (to be fair, it's up like 10% since January).

If you work in or adjacent to Tech, you can add the stress of lay-offs/losing your job because while unemployment is low, it's because a ton of low-class wage job growth in hospitality/service.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,458

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I don't know about a landslide, but he should be able to pull it off.  Too much voter suppression efforts in too many key states.  I think it'll be reflected more in the popular vote though than in the Elector College.  

No offense to a capable Biden, but for the first time in my lifetime---it's gonna be of dire fucking importance who the bottom of the ticket is going to be.  I have no issues with Harris, at all.  If there's going to be a change, or no change, time the announcement and the handling of it to be spot-fucking-on.  Shit, have some fun with it...make it Mike Pence.  

"Biden/Pence.  Old and Grey.  But at least one of 'em won't hang the other one."  

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gmr548

gmr548 16,701

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Biden vs Trump running on a platform of vendettas, Jan 6 being heroes, and forcing 10 year olds to give birth.
Biden is a landslide.

I agree Biden wins again if it’s held today. Elections since then, especially post Dobbs, have borne that out. Anti-democratic positions and abortion are losers for the GOP in competitive states.

That said, if unemployment increases into the 5-6% range a year and a half from now I think that’s an equalizer.
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elfenix

elfenix 34,752

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Also I think it's ironic that the people shouting about building a wall to keep out immigrants who often justified their position by stating that immigrants are holding down americans' wages are now shouting about inflation after 3 years of remain in Mexico, COVID, and title 42 dropped the number of immigrants coming in, helping fuel increasing wages.

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4,640

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Biden will win his second term without issue, barring some kind of major financial collapse.  I mean if people have time to be pissed about bud light cans, they don’t have real issues.  The ‘28 election is where it gets dicey. I don’t know if a threepeat happens for the D’s. I think it’ll swing very hard the other direction at that point. Maybe not Trump hard, but who knows.  

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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15 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Biden will win his second term without issue, barring some kind of major financial collapse.  I mean if people have time to be pissed about bud light cans, they don’t have real issues.  The ‘28 election is where it gets dicey. I don’t know if a threepeat happens for the D’s. I think it’ll swing very hard the other direction at that point. Maybe not Trump hard, but who knows.  

If Desantis or Trump is all the GOP can come up with, I’m not too worried about losing.

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DaysOff

DaysOff 8,209

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I agree Biden wins again if it’s held today. Elections since then, especially post Dobbs, have borne that out. Anti-democratic positions and abortion are losers for the GOP in competitive states.

That said, if unemployment increases into the 5-6% range a year and a half from now I think that’s an equalizer.

The margin last time was 43,000 in 3 key states, not 7 or 8 million. Don't get cocky yet, people.
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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4,640

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19 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

If Desantis or Trump is all the GOP can come up with, I’m not too worried about losing.

Did you read my first sentence?  Trump won’t be alive for ‘28.  DeSantis likely won’t be in politics then either, after this failed run.   It’ll be a host of shittier names. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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7 hours ago, DaysOff said:


The margin last time was 43,000 in 3 key states, not 7 or 8 million. Don't get cocky yet, people.

That election had unusual circumstances that will probably never be replicated. People voted while they were locked down and nothing else was going on at the time to distract them. The election was the only game in town, the country really. I don’t think the turnout will ever be that high because during normal times we have so many different things going on in our daily lives to distract people from voting.

people weren’t really going to work. Kids weren’t really going to school. No extra curriculars. Minimal sports. No new movies or shows.

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4,640

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27 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

That election had unusual circumstances that will probably never be replicated. People voted while they were locked down and nothing else was going on at the time to distract them. The election was the only game in town, the country really. I don’t think the turnout will ever be that high because during normal times we have so many different things going on in our daily lives to distract people from voting.

people weren’t really going to work. Kids weren’t really going to school. No extra curriculars. Minimal sports. No new movies or shows.

True. Women also still had reproductive rights, tho. 

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HamsterHookah

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10 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Biden will win his second term without issue, barring some kind of major financial collapse.  I mean if people have time to be pissed about bud light cans, they don’t have real issues.  The ‘28 election is where it gets dicey. I don’t know if a threepeat happens for the D’s. I think it’ll swing very hard the other direction at that point. Maybe not Trump hard, but who knows.  

Agreed. I read today that Bud Light has lost $5bh due to the whole rigmarole, which I found surprising. 

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4,640

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9 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

Agreed. I read today that Bud Light has lost $5bh due to the whole rigmarole, which I found surprising. 

Yeah i heard the same.  Had it on my to do list to check out how BUD was doing.  Looks like it's down 4% this week.  Might be able to make a quick buck. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16,701

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That election had unusual circumstances that will probably never be replicated. People voted while they were locked down and nothing else was going on at the time to distract them. The election was the only game in town, the country really. I don’t think the turnout will ever be that high because during normal times we have so many different things going on in our daily lives to distract people from voting.
people weren’t really going to work. Kids weren’t really going to school. No extra curriculars. Minimal sports. No new movies or shows.

It was also pre Dobbs, pre Jan 6 and election denying fallout (I mean, they were telegraphing it, but it hasn’t actually happened).

How many people wanted Trump out in 2020 and then look back on the past couple years and say, “actually I fucked up, that guy should totally be president”?

The number won’t be literally zero, but confident it wouldn’t swing an election today. 2022 midterms are proof of concept on that. But again, long way to go and negative economic developments could flip the script.
Yeah i heard the same.  Had it on my to do list to check out how BUD was doing.  Looks like it's down 4% this week.  Might be able to make a quick buck. 

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'stache

'stache 22,143

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13 hours ago, gmr548 said:


That was pre Dobbs. Agree with the general sentiment though.

Who exactly is changing their minds over Dobbs? Anyone who voted for trump or refused to vote Biden aren’t going to be swayed by Dobbs. Either they support it or will be swayed by the next wedge issue. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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48 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Who exactly is changing their minds over Dobbs? Anyone who voted for trump or refused to vote Biden aren’t going to be swayed by Dobbs. Either they support it or will be swayed by the next wedge issue. 

Wisconsin Supreme Court race and Kansas ballot initiative show the power and staying power of dobbs.

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gmr548

gmr548 16,701

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Who exactly is changing their minds over Dobbs? Anyone who voted for trump or refused to vote Biden aren’t going to be swayed by Dobbs. Either they support it or will be swayed by the next wedge issue. 

I don’t think many people are, but it’s very clearly and consistently gotten Democratic voters to the bottom polls in competitive states. My point is basically the same as yours but the other way around. Who showed up to vote against Trump in 2020 and wouldn’t do so now?
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Foosters

Foosters 18,280

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10 hours ago, TheRealRonWeaver? said:

I think it's just precious how you suckers think those who vote in the presidential election will decide who becomes president.

Hard to tell if this is an anti-electoral college rant, or a classic example of MAGA brainworms. 

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29,579

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10 hours ago, TheRealRonWeaver? said:

I think it's just precious how you suckers think those who vote in the presidential election will decide who becomes president.

The immense disparity between how smart you actually are and how smart you think you are is much more precious.

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1,658

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21 hours ago, Red Five said:

Must be nice to not worry about getting the most votes. Like a football team knowing they'll "win" if they're outscored 37-24.

The rule of the game is whoever wins the electoral college, not whoever gets the most votes.  A more accurate analogy would be if a football team outgained its opponent but still lost.  Sure you did better in a metric that should have gotten you more points, but ultimately, you didn't score more points.

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Js1

Js1 87,185

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On 4/10/2023 at 12:52 PM, gmr548 said:


I agree Biden wins again if it’s held today. Elections since then, especially post Dobbs, have borne that out. Anti-democratic positions and abortion are losers for the GOP in competitive states.

That said, if unemployment increases into the 5-6% range a year and a half from now I think that’s an equalizer.

These are not winning numbers for republicans. Indies are not happy with them

 

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Js1

Js1 87,185

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11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I mean, 35% congressional approval is pretty good relative to where that number usually is.

Indies win or lose you elections though, especially in swing states. 

-48 overall
-33 on abortion
-31 on SS/Medicare
-17 on the economy
-27 on inflation

Edited by Js1
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