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Joe Biden 2023: The Dark Brandon Rises

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
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Longhorn_Fan68
Longhorn_Fan68

Joe drops in to lay his old wrinkly nuts on Marge's ape-like chin. x-post from her dumb thread  

mooseoutfront
mooseoutfront

Just want to give a shout out to Dark Brandon The remainder of my wife's student loans were forgiven today She/we have been paying on them for 20 plus years We are now 100% debt free

elguapo
elguapo

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26901

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12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

No.

Well, uh... go around to bars in quiet parts of towns in France and (twenty+ years ago) you would regularly encounter conspiracy nuts who could go toe-to-toe with our Qtards. And tons of "normal" people who, yes, may be walking past historical sites every day, but their knowledge of the world came from one or two tv shows. Also a bit of cynicism of the "You may fool ze ozzairs but you weel not fool ME!" Very Franch.

Mexico runs in the same groove as France, with an extra scoop of knee-jerk cinicismo. 

I don't know about other countries but these two are where I lived, worked, and had byzantine theories trotted out to me. I don't think we've ever been non-dumb, but with conspiracies it's just now catching up to France.

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South Austin

South Austin 53232

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3 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 

This is how it happened in my head:

[Biden on the phone] "Mitch, it's Joe. I wanted to reach out to see how you're doing.  Yeah, okay.  Good that you're well and back at work.  Jill and I are keeping you in our prayers.  Take care, bye now." [Hangs up phone.]  "Fuck that piece of shit."  [Calls White House Executive Chef] "Hey, Cristeta, it's the President.  Can you please make sure we have plenty of Dom chilled and ready to go in case that son of a bitch McConnell croaks in the next few days?  Thanks a bunch."

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Horn Under a Bad Sign

Horn Under a Bad Sign 20932

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GDP growth so strong even Maria Bartiromo said "WOW!"  when she announced it on Fox News.

What's amazing to me is that this expansion is taking place in the face of rising interest rates and falling inflation rates. It seems like, usually, when the Fed raises interest rates, it kills GDP growth because of the impact those monetary policy decisions have on financing, which leads to demand destruction and a decline in GDP growth, if not an outright contraction.

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gmr548

gmr548 16702

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34 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

GDP growth so strong even Maria Bartiromo said "WOW!"  when she announced it on Fox News.

What's amazing to me is that this expansion is taking place in the face of rising interest rates and falling inflation rates. It seems like, usually, when the Fed raises interest rates, it kills GDP growth because of the impact those monetary policy decisions have on financing, which leads to demand destruction and a decline in GDP growth, if not an outright contraction.

There is typically a lag between the actual raising of rates and the impact on the economy. Like a year plus. I expect we will continue to see a gradual cooling of job numbers and GDP. On the consumer side, which is most of the economy, excess savings built up during COVID is dwindling and credit card balances are increasing. If consumer spending falls off that may be the end of the line on strong economic data.

I'm of the opinion that we may skirt a recession, whatever that means now a days, because demographics are naturally going to prop up the housing and labor markets to an extent. We do not have enough housing units and we do not have enough workers. But I do expect the economy to really start showing the impacts of rate increases toward the end of this year and into next year.

Edited by gmr548
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47238

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15 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

But I do expect the economy to really start showing the impacts of rate increases toward the end of this year and into next year.

That's exactly what people said one year ago.

Let's face it, "the economy" is a massive beast, complicated by nature and further complicated by human nature, and at any one time at least half and often most economists are wrong.

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Js1

Js1 87214

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The media will have you believe that recession is coming any day now. Inflation down, GDP doing well, consumer confidence is high. Recession chances by the “experts” continue to be downgraded. Fed staff don’t see one coming either. 

It’s the “two weeks” of recession. Just wait! 

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gmr548

gmr548 16702

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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's exactly what people said one year ago.

Let's face it, "the economy" is a massive beast, complicated by nature and further complicated by human nature, and at any one time at least half and often most economists are wrong.

I don't disagree. It always makes me laugh that the field of economics assumes a marketplace of "rational actors." Like, have you guys ever met a human being before?

I could definitely be wrong. It could crater badly; or in ten years we could be referring to the early 2020's as the Biden Boom. That's just my best guess; but it is true that it does take a significant amount of time for interest rates to really impact the economy (and it's not like they aren't now).

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gmr548

gmr548 16702

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Also one thing I should have added that just as rates take time to impact the economy, so does government investment. Projects funded by the infrastructure bill, CHIPS act, or the IRA don't take off immediately. With some of those things starting to come on line that's another factor in the "maybe this can be propped up" column.

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Js1

Js1 87214

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I have clients starting new construction or research projects solely because of BBB and IRA. A lot of hiring for construction projects for infrastructure and research projects for renewable energy 

Edited by Js1
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Guest

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Posted
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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

The media Daily Texan forum will have you believe that recession is coming any day now. Inflation down, GDP doing well, consumer confidence is high. Recession chances by the “experts” continue to be downgraded. Fed staff don’t see one coming either. 

It’s the “two weeks” of recession. Just wait! 

 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11879

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18 hours ago, Js1 said:

6th Street Journal thread is so quiet. Incredulity, 52-80, whatever Sack and GRUHorn socks are around these days have gone missing. 

ORLY?

What specifically would you like to discuss?

My opinion:

We actually had a recession with the two quarters ending mid-year.  Fed-Ex and other shipping companies have indicated May was a trough in volumes.  Recently, major retailers have stated they are taking foot off brakes on inventories.


I am very surprised current interest rates have not had greater drag on macro numbers.  But, the RE/Mortgage thread indicates serious stress in that market.  

 

Who fucking knows where we go from here.  Same as it ever was.  


I heard a comment from a talking head on CNBC in the last year or so that I think is pretty spot on. “For the last 3 years we have done a series of unprecedented economic programs, so why would we think the near term result would be consistent with historical averages?”

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29595

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27 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I heard a comment from a talking head on CNBC in the last year or so that I think is pretty spot on. “For the last 3 years we have done a series of unprecedented economic programs, so why would we think the near term result would be consistent with historical averages?”

I do always love when you champion progressive governmental policies.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11879

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Which year?

Not arguing a technical definition of recession.

More precisely there has been a good’s recession over the last year.  Services has picked up the slack.

My livelihood isn’t in services so my perspective is certainly more influenced by the goods segment of the economy.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47238

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32 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Yes, since March of 20.

yes, “But, Trump” was still President then.

My point was that there were previous economic actions that were similarly extreme, like trade tariffs.  (Personally, I don't know why Biden hasn't rolled those back as of yet.  Apparently they are "still under review".)

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11879

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43 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

My point was that there were previous economic actions that were similarly extreme, like trade tariffs.  (Personally, I don't know why Biden hasn't rolled those back as of yet.  Apparently they are "still under review".)

Because the tariffs are favored by Unions.

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Js1

Js1 87214

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47 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I seriously do not know enough about economics to know whether that is sarcasm. that's sarcasm, right?

Q2 was 2.4%, for reference. Bidenomics works 

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Bullneck

Bullneck 19543

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7 hours ago, Incredulity said:

ORLY?

What specifically would you like to discuss?

My opinion:

We actually had a recession with the two quarters ending mid-year.  Fed-Ex and other shipping companies have indicated May was a trough in volumes.  Recently, major retailers have stated they are taking foot off brakes on inventories.


I am very surprised current interest rates have not had greater drag on macro numbers.  But, the RE/Mortgage thread indicates serious stress in that market.  

 

Who fucking knows where we go from here.  Same as it ever was.  


I heard a comment from a talking head on CNBC in the last year or so that I think is pretty spot on. “For the last 3 years we have done a series of unprecedented economic programs, so why would we think the near term result would be consistent with historical averages?”

GOD FUCKING DAMMIT.  IT FUCKING SUCKS WHEN YOU WANT ECONOMIC PAIN AND CAN'T GET IT!!!!!!!!

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26874

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55 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I seriously do not know enough about economics to know whether that is sarcasm. that's sarcasm, right?

 

26 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

yes.  +3.5% is quite good.

Yes it is, and that's not to say it's super high, because in this context that wouldn't be good. Negative growth is recession, low is stagnation, high can exacerbate inflation. 

For context, the aggregate GDP growth rate from WWII to the present is around 3.2%. 3%-4% is Goldilocks territory. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46175

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1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Yes it is, and that's not to say it's super high, because in this context that wouldn't be good. Negative growth is recession, low is stagnation, high can exacerbate inflation. 

For context, the aggregate GDP growth rate from WWII to the present is around 3.2%. 3%-4% is Goldilocks territory. 

Important.  Yeah, +10% would be...unsustainable.

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