Joe Biden 2023: The Dark Brandon Rises

[YGIFS 19458]

Well, in a twisted way...it's almost comforting to know that stupidity on all sides will be the prologue to the stories I tell my daughters around the campfire that i have to quickly snuff out before the cannibalistic marauders see it from the distance.  

But please, by all means folks...tell us the great travails of Cornell West, Jill Stein, and the Kennedy Royalty.   I don't know what the DNC has planned but hurry the fuck up about it.  Because the only, and I mean the only fucking thing, you should be concerned with, is not your bullshit "Rock the vote", turn out the bast, energize the youth or whatever dumb fucking electoral college loser you in your back pocket this time around.  It's simply dampen the ability or desire for about 5-10mm MAGA voters in 11 months time.  You do that...and this thing is done for good and he dies shortly afterwards.  That's it.  You can worry about the other branches and other caselaw and all the rest.  First, keep just a few of them home so he loses, then he dies, and then we reshuffle history.  There will be an uprising.  And it'll get ugly for a hot minute.  But you'd be surprised how conveniently you can rewrite history.  "How'd the United States lose 10mm people so quickly after Trump lost/died, you ask?  Um well (sweeps foot over mass grave)...a lotta people said if he didn't win, they'd leave the country.  I guess they must have.  We have the ticket stubs to prove it." 

[956 Worldwide 35594]

4 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

On a macro level, the discontent from the far left/progressive group, and the centrists, and the far right just creates this general malaise. I think it's why we see such low approval ratings, low polling. It irritates the fuck out of me. Biden might have accomplished more than any other president of our lifetime, and in the worst environment possible. But man, we sure can find reasons to be disappointed with him. And we have to stop it, on some level. 

 

The far left and the far right are both committed ideologues who are going to express extreme dissatisfaction with anything that happens within our current framework of liberal secular democracy. They want to dismantle that system and replace it with a cheap facsimile but gut the underlying principles. Their voices are amplified to 11 through social media and captured institutions which makes the centrists believe that the center is not holding, everyone is angry, and thus Biden is not doing a good job. 
 

This, fundamentally, is the problem with social media and new journalism, it gives equal time to voices that do not deserve equal time. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by 956 Worldwide

[Biff Tannen 46168]

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The far left and the far right are both committed ideologues who are going to express extreme dissatisfaction with anything that happens within our current framework of liberal secular democracy. They want to dismantle that system and replace it with a cheap facsimile but gut the underlying principles. Their voices are amplified to 11 through social media and captured institutions which makes the centrists believe that the center is not holding, everyone is angry, and thus Biden is not doing a good job. 
 

This, fundamentally, is the problem with social media and new journalism, it gives equal time to voices that do not deserve equal time. 

I would say it gives far more time to those who do not deserve it, but the point is made. 

[C-Man 27783]

Someone want to talk me off the ledge on this one: https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2023/marquette-law-school-national-survey-finds-biden-trailing-three-gop-opponents.php

Marquette Law School poll shows Nikki Haley 10 points ahead of Biden, Trump four points ahead of Biden and DeSantis two points ahead at this point.

Of course, we all know Trump is getting the GQP nom barring some stunning occurrence AND I know there's a long way to go until Election Day 2024 but sheesh ...

[Js1 87187]

I’m not reposting my thing about polling 

[jimmyjazz 47219]

Yeah, the Haley & DeSantis results should lead one to believe there is zero value in that poll.

[Underdog 29196]

1 hour ago, C-Man said:

Someone want to talk me off the ledge on this one: https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2023/marquette-law-school-national-survey-finds-biden-trailing-three-gop-opponents.php

Marquette Law School poll shows Nikki Haley 10 points ahead of Biden, Trump four points ahead of Biden and DeSantis two points ahead at this point.

Of course, we all know Trump is getting the GQP nom barring some stunning occurrence AND I know there's a long way to go until Election Day 2024 but sheesh ...

In Shaka y'all trust. 

[Incredulity 11876]

21 minutes ago, Underdog said:

In Shaka y'all trust. 

Khan, Zulu or Smart?

[Js1 87187]

23 minutes ago, Underdog said:

In Shaka y'all trust. 

[StassneyHorn 6775]

ECONOMISTS STRUGGLE TO COME TO TERMS WITH “IMMACULATE DISINFLATION”

My guest article was printed in the New Yorker

 

Spoiler

A little more than a year ago, the Wall Street Journal surveyed economists about their forecasts for 2023. The respondents, who included more than seventy experts from academia, business, and Wall Street, said that a recession was the likeliest outcome, as the Federal Reserve was keeping interest rates high to bring down inflation. They predicted that G.D.P. would shrink slightly in the first half of the year and that job growth would turn negative. In other words, the cost of bringing down inflation would be an economic slump. “Soft landing will likely remain a mythical outcome that never actually comes to pass,” one respondent said.

In January of this year, when the Journal carried out its next survey, economists were still predicting a recession and job cuts. “For 2023 as a whole, economists expect that payrolls will decline by 7,000 a month on average,” the paper reported. These predictions couldn’t have been more wrong. About the only thing the economists got right was that inflation would continue to fall, but even there they underestimated the pace of decline. Earlier this week, the Labor Department reported that the consumer-price inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in October, reversing a slight pickup over the summer. And with gas prices still falling, it seems perfectly possible that the the November figure for consumer-price inflation could begin with a two.

The great inflation spike, which has dominated economic news for the past couple of years, appears to be over. The rate of price increases is still a bit higher than the Fed would like; its target is two per cent. But since reaching a peak of 9.1 per cent, in June of last year, inflation has fallen by almost two-thirds. And this big decline has been accompanied not by the predicted recession but, rather, by a pickup in G.D.P. growth and sustained job creation: the opposite of what economists predicted.

In 2022, G.D.P., which is the broadest measure of the economy’s output, grew at an annual rate of 1.9 per cent, according to the Commerce Department. In the first three quarters of this year, the annualized growth rate has clocked in at 2.2 per cent, 2.1 per cent, and 4.9 per cent, respectively. With the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model pointing to growth of two per cent in the final quarter, it looks like G.D.P. growth for 2023 as a whole will be above two per cent. As for jobs, in the first ten months of the year, non-farm employers created about 2.4 million of them, and the unemployment rate is still below four per cent. So much for the forecasts of negative job growth.

It’s conceivable that between now and the New Year, the economy could still fall off a cliff. Over-all retail sales dipped slightly last month, and just this week Target and Home Depot reported that some consumers are holding off on big-ticket purchases. But barring some sort of financial calamity or a dramatic escalation of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, it seems unlikely that this weakness will turn into a broader free fall. The October decline in retail spending followed a surge during the summer, and other indicators remain positive. On Friday, housing stats came in stronger than expected.

Taken together, these figures show that the American economy has greatly outperformed expectations over the past year, shocking some of those who argued that a big slowdown and higher unemployment would be required to break the back of inflation. “The US combination of strong growth, low unemployment and falling inflation looks rather like the ‘immaculate disinflation,’ in which I, for one, disbelieved,” Martin Wolf, the Financial Times’ chief economics commentator, wrote last week. Even the former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who is now a professor at Harvard and said last year that it would likely take an unemployment rate of six per cent to “significantly restrain inflation,” has rowed back a bit. “Given how strong the economy has been, there’s still a surprise in what’s happened to inflation,” Summers told Bloomberg earlier this week.

To be fair to the inflation hawks, the immaculate disinflation that Wolf referred to has no precedent in recent history, and it has also surprised policymakers at the Fed. At their December, 2022, meeting, Jerome Powell and his colleagues predicted G.D.P. growth of just 0.5 per cent in 2023 and an unemployment rate of 4.6 per cent in the October-to-December quarter. Both of these predictions were way off, but in a good way.

How could economic forecasters have got things so wrong? One possibility is that their dire predictions were not inaccurate but premature, and that higher interest rates will eventually take their toll and bring on a recession. Another possibility is that many economists misinterpreted the nature of the inflation spike to begin with, viewing it primarily as a product of excessive demand rather than of pandemic-era supply disruptions, which have now largely disappeared. If that’s true, economists need to rewrite their textbooks.

The debate will go on, as will the parallel discussion about why, according to opinion polls, most ordinary Americans think that the U.S. economy is doing badly, and give Joe Biden negative ratings on this front. But the fact that many people are still bummed about the price of groceries and the level of mortgage rates shouldn’t be allowed to obscure what is shaping up as a historic victory over inflation. That’s where we are, and it’s worth a holiday toast. 

 

[elfenix 34752]

Another possibility is that many economists misinterpreted the nature of the inflation spike to begin with, viewing it primarily as a product of excessive demand rather than of pandemic-era supply disruptions, which have now largely disappeared.

there's non-trivial chance that the fed has been rate-hiking for nothing.  "we're going to ease inflation pressures by making it more expensive for suppliers to supply" is ... some kind of logic.

[linux 1787]

On 11/16/2023 at 1:16 PM, Biff Tannen said:

I think the "Rs are good at the economy and Ds are not" may be the most enraging thing about all of politics, pre-2016.

Before 2016 Something you need to understand this is that it is a single issue nonsense. When someone screams that their number one issue is the economy it generally signals that they are a republican to begin with hence it is always the Ds fault, the thing is all of these single issues never really propel someone past 50%+1.

At the end of the day there is a monstrous 45% of the country that would butcher us all if they got real power, we all need to vote and volunteer to help people vote, fixing the economy is imporant but it is no longer "it's the economy stupid" .

This is my litmus test for navigating the modern political landscape, always look at polls that are over 51% of all respondents. (and Likely voters) Republicans winning on the economy 45% R to 1% D is fucking meaningless, they still lost the election.

[Biff Tannen 46168]

6 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Another possibility is that many economists misinterpreted the nature of the inflation spike to begin with, viewing it primarily as a product of excessive demand rather than of pandemic-era supply disruptions, which have now largely disappeared. If that’s true, economists need to rewrite their textbooks.

Not to mention that corporations kept prices jacked up because they fucking felt like it. Chicken wings went from $13 for 10 pieces to $20 and never came back down, despite wholesale costs going down. Fuck em all. 

[Underdog 29196]

That’d be a lot of fucking. 

[Homercles 10206]

On 11/16/2023 at 8:57 AM, Snake Diggity said:

NO ONE under 40 answers their phone, not even for people they know.  And they don’t respond to spam texts.  I am not sure how you accurately poll people under 40 but it isn’t over the phone or via email.  Most people in their 40s are the same way.  Polling via phone is only going to accurately gauge the over 50 vote.

I spent five years across two companies talking on the phone for a living (tech support)…I absolutely hate talking on the phone.  Pisses my wife off when a simple call is needed to schedule something, and I sulk simply because they don’t have a website where I can do it without the ‘our menu items have changed’ bullshit.  

[fattyflattie 4640]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Not to mention that corporations kept prices jacked up because they fucking felt like it. Chicken wings went from $13 for 10 pieces to $20 and never came back down, despite wholesale costs going down. Fuck em all. 

Capt sock?  

[jimmyjazz 47219]

2 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Capt sock?  

No, just correct.

[StassneyHorn 6775]

“We’re sorry for these unprecedented times, we are gouging you and it’s the new normal”

[fattyflattie 4640]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

No, just correct.

What margins should businesses be allowed to make?  Where should they be capped?  And do you believe they pay enough in taxes?

[jimmyjazz 47219]

34 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

What margins should businesses be allowed to make?  

0%.  Remember, I'm a Marxist libtard.

[Biff Tannen 46168]

Ignore him.  He's a moron.

[Incredulity 11876]

4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

0%.  Remember, I'm a Marxist libtard.

[Bozo_Casanova 26853]

5 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

What margins should businesses be allowed to make?  Where should they be capped?  And do you believe they pay enough in taxes?

A better question (and one that boards should and do ask) is;

1. are these higher margins coming at the cost of market share, growth, or profit per share?
   1. And if they are, why should you keep your job?
   2. And if they aren't, why weren't we able to access them before?
   3. And if we were, why should you keep your job?

Edited November 19, 2023 by Bozo_Casanova

[Captainant 28555]

18 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

What margins should businesses be allowed to make?  Where should they be capped?  And do you believe they pay enough in taxes?

There's a difference between earning a profit as a business, and stealing wages from workers to pass onto investors as """record profits""". I appreciate that you can't discuss this in good faith and so need to continually lie and misrepresent my position, so I look forward to explaining this to you again soon, farty. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Captainant

[Goofyboy 3434]

There's a difference between earning a profit as a business, and stealing wages from workers to pass onto investors as """record profits""". I appreciate that you can't discuss this in good faith and so need to continually lie and misrepresent my position, so I look forward to explaining this to you again soon, farty. 

I’d love to see profits confiscated from companies that have too many employees on government assistance. You should not be allowed to be a welfare company and have record profits.

[Guest]

In completely anecdotal junk food shopping stuff, the price of Doritos before all this was $2.50 for a bag at HEB. Now it's $4.48 -- an 80% increase. I'm sorry, I just don't see how the cost to get a bag into a consumer's hands has popped 80%. Same thing with 20 ounce bottles of Coke, which is now $2.25 (in my mind, they are still priced at $0.50).

Meanwhile, frozen pizzas seem like they've maybe gone up $1 in all of this? So now you're paying $6-7 instead of $5-6.

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by FirstTimeCaller

[fattyflattie 4640]

It’s like y’all don’t understand why your 401k’s are where they are.  

17 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

A better question (and one that boards should and do ask) is;

1. are these higher margins coming at the cost of market share, growth, or profit per share?
   1. And if they are, why should you keep your job?
   2. And if they aren't, why weren't we able to access them before?
   3. And if we were, why should you keep your job?

Agree. But I’m pretty sure Tysons has that figured out.  They don’t hold any duty to provide Biff with a price he finds reasonable, until the point he switches brands.  And at that point, the boards questions become legitimate.  Without seeing a drop in sales, they should be asking why have we not reached our peak margin. And why should you keep your job, since you can’t identify efficient margins. 

[Bullneck 19536]

On 11/16/2023 at 3:22 PM, SydneyCarton said:

We're on the same side on most shit man. Every time I have a slight disagreement doesn't mean I'm over here hyperventilating. 

I do think that the position you initially put forth is a very easy one we see often, and it supports a really bad narrative that we see everywhere in regards to the Democrats. Hell, there's not many groups of people that are more critical of the Democratic party than this group of posters here (outside of dumb MAGA dipshits), but the criticism of Biden and dems is pervasive, and everyone is so happy to just shit on them while in no way recognizing the actual, real, great fucking shit they've accomplished.

On a macro level, the discontent from the far left/progressive group, and the centrists, and the far right just creates this general malaise. I think it's why we see such low approval ratings, low polling. It irritates the fuck out of me. Biden might have accomplished more than any other president of our lifetime, and in the worst environment possible. But man, we sure can find reasons to be disappointed with him. And we have to stop it, on some level. 

 

I'm with you on this, especially the bolded part.  

1 minute ago, fattyflattie said:

It’s like y’all don’t understand why your 401k’s are where they are.  

Agree. But I’m pretty sure Tysons has that figured out.  They don’t hold any duty to provide Biff with a price he finds reasonable, until the point he switches brands.  And at that point, the boards questions become legitimate.  Without seeing a drop in sales, they should be asking why have we not reached our peak margin. And why should you keep your job, since you can’t identify efficient margins. 

Just out of curiosity, how many economics classes did you actually take?  Or do you just watch a lot of Fox news?

Edited November 19, 2023 by Bullneck

[fattyflattie 4640]

1 minute ago, Bullneck said:

I'm with you on this, especially the bolded part.  

Just out of curiosity, how many economics classes did you actually take?  Or do you just watch a lot of Fox news?

Enough to get a finance degree? 

[Bullneck 19536]

1 minute ago, fattyflattie said:

Enough to get a finance degree? 

How many is that?  From UT?

Edited November 19, 2023 by Bullneck

[fattyflattie 4640]

1 minute ago, Bullneck said:

How many is that?  From UT?

Enough to understand how businesses make money.  And enough to know it’s lol to listen to people complain about what drives stock prices higher, while the only means of retirement for 95%+ of the country depends on it.  But oh no, my chicken nuggy costs a .40 more than it did a couple years ago!!1!   Just how in the fuck are we going to live thru that kind of gouge?

I graduated from a UT@ school. I’ve posted as much dozens of times in the last decade on these boards.  

[elfenix 34752]

22 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

It’s like y’all don’t understand why your 401k’s are where they are.  

 

because baby boomers have gotten the government to transfer 100+ trillion dollars of wealth to them since the early 1980s by voting in favor of policies that impoverish the following generations (that thing  you guys are constantly worried about but don't understand the cause of or the solution to)?

Quote

Boomers have quite simply been the biggest beneficiary of a “massive wealth transfer,” wrote the BofA team led by Ohsung Kwon, echoing Dalio’s observation that trillions of wealth flowed from the public to the private sector thanks to government policy since the 1980s, when boomers were in their prime working years. BofA pointed to the ballooning government debt—from 31% of GDP to 120% during that period—and the 10-year Treasury yield shrinking from 12% to 4.6% today (it’s actually 4.9% as of press time).

So how many trillions? Over this period, BofA calculates, U.S. household net worth has skyrocketed from $17 trillion to $150 trillion. Boomers, alongside “traditionalists,” hold two-thirds ($146 trillion) of that total net worth. This means that government policy has resulted in a $129 trillion wealth transfer into the pockets of those boomers and older Americans, BofA said (it didn't clarify the exact apportionment of wealth between these two groups).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/great-wealth-transfer-isn-t-100000946.html

Edited November 19, 2023 by elfenix

[fattyflattie 4640]

10 minutes ago, elfenix said:

because baby boomers have gotten the government to transfer 100+ trillion dollars of wealth to them since the early 1980s by voting in favor of policies that impoverish the following generations (that thing  you guys are constantly worried about but don't understand the cause of or the solution to)?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/great-wealth-transfer-isn-t-100000946.html

It’s true. And all that money is trickling down where when they die off?  To every Gen Xr on this board.  Will probably even be able to continue to afford those nuggies at these exorbitant prices.  
 

A board full of people with solid portfolios bitching about the investor class and how the same co’s their invested in are killing it, will never not be funny.  Enjoy your XOM divs  while bitching about gas prices and the climate. Fuck outta here.   

[Goofyboy 3434]

It’s true. And all that money is trickling down where when they die off?  To every Gen Xr on this board.  Will probably even be able to continue to afford those nuggies at these exorbitant prices.  
 
A board full of people with solid portfolios bitching about the investor class and how the same co’s their invested in are killing it, will never not be funny.  Enjoy your XOM divs  while bitching about gas prices and the climate. Fuck outta here.   

But it’s not. All of that money is going to end of life care. Thats the next massive wealth transfer is boomers to retirement homes / communities/ companies.

[jimmyjazz 47219]

Why would a consumer switch brands when prices are going up a similar amount across all brands?  It almost sounds like there's . . . what's the word?  dammit, can't remember . . . going on.

[Captainant 28555]

7 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

It’s true. And all that money is trickling down where when they die off?  To every Gen Xr on this board.  Will probably even be able to continue to afford those nuggies at these exorbitant prices.  

Tell me you've never dealt with elder care in this country without telling me. 

[fattyflattie 4640]

1 minute ago, Goofyboy said:

But it’s not. All of that money is going to end of life care. Thats the next massive wealth transfer is boomers to retirement homes / communities/ companies.

A lot of it, true. Got a bit of that coming down the road myself.  But a lot of it are going to guys in new King ranch 250s, their ski boats, and newfound hobby of collecting timepieces.  Source, the last 10 neighbors and coworkers of mine who’s parents died, which allowed them immediate entry into 7 figure houses up the road a few months later.  

[fattyflattie 4640]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Why would a consumer switch brands when prices are going up a similar amount across all brands?  It almost sounds like there's . . . what's the word?  dammit, can't remember . . . going on.

Strong economy?  

[jimmyjazz 47219]

Just now, fattyflattie said:

Strong economy?  

No, that's not it.  I'm pretty sure it starts with a "c".

[elfenix 34752]

20 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

trickling down

 

the vast majority of people ain't going to see shit in inheritance but still have to pay bigly for college and housing.

Edited November 19, 2023 by elfenix

[Willfully Horn 8266]

Is this the thread where we talk about the H Mart coming to town? Foodie types are going nuts over the news. Thanks, Joe!

[Guest]

What are y'all arguing about? I wanna know whose side I'm on...

 

Seriously, I can't figure out exactly what's being argued.

 

[Bullneck 19536]

50 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Enough to understand how businesses make money.  

OK.

50 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

 And enough to know it’s lol to listen to people complain about what drives stock prices higher

Supply & demand for a particular stock?

50 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

while the only means of retirement for 95%+ of the country depends on it

Social security?  Couldn't be a 401k or IRA (see below)

Quote

Among working-age individuals (ages 15 to 64), the most common type of retirement accounts in 2020 were 401(k)-style accounts (34.6%). About 18% of working-age individuals had an IRA or Keogh account, and 13.5% had a defined-benefit or cash balance plan.

50 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

 But oh no, my chicken nuggy costs a .40 more than it did a couple years ago!!1!   Just how in the fuck are we going to live thru that kind of gouge?

What caused this $.40 increase?  Was it good (bigger executive bonuses) or bad (living wages for employees)?  Do tell!

 

50 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

I graduated from a UT@ school. I’ve posted as much dozens of times in the last decade on these boards.  

UT Tyler, I'd guess.  They have a 65% acceptance rate. 

[fattyflattie 4640]

59 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

What caused this $.40 increase?  Was it good (bigger executive bonuses) or bad (living wages for employees)?  Do tell!

Probably a myriad of things including the C-suite bonus’ offset by their ability to manage nonessential personnel. 

1 hour ago, Bullneck said:

UT Tyler, I'd guess.  They have a 65% acceptance rate. 

Close.  Acceptance rate likely similar. Then again, I’m planting you firmly in the lucky to get into UT when ya did group, no offense. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26853]

4 hours ago, Goofyboy said:

You should not be allowed to be a welfare company and have record profits.

This is an underrated point - the taxpayers are subsidizing every dollar between wages and the standard of living and it distorts prices at the point of sale. In other words, we're socializing the cost of consumption and if we are going to do that we should have eyes wide open. 

[Captainant 28555]

4 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Probably a myriad of things including the C-suite bonus’ offset by their ability to manage nonessential personnel. 

Lmao what a nice way to say "layoffs and pay cuts for workers". Did you learn that doublespeak phrase in your finance course work?

[Aqua Buddha 14807]

Good thread there.  The pollsters are still literally calling people and talking to whoever answers.  The media then waves their arms in the air and screams "LOOK AT THIS!!!"

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Aqua Buddha

[Biff Tannen 46168]

8 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Why would a consumer switch brands when prices are going up a similar amount across all brands?  It almost sounds like there's . . . what's the word?  dammit, can't remember . . . going on.

Wait, wait.  I know this one.

[Bozo_Casanova 26853]

Research indicates that 82% of 18-29 year old single men reached by phone at their mom’s house would like somebody to pick up a bag of cool ranch Doritos if they are already going to be at the store. 

[DixonHur 11961]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Good thread there.  The pollsters are still literally calling people and talking to whoever answers.  The media then waves their arms in the air and screams "LOOK AT THIS!!!"

 

Even if the polling is flawed, I'd rather the Dems take this shit serious and up their campaign game.  

I check at least 3 news sites multiple times a day, and I can't name one recent Biden accomplishment.  Part of that is obvious news bias chasing clicks, but the Dem party knows that too, so they need to find other ways to get the info out there.  This election is too important.