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Joe Biden 2023: The Dark Brandon Rises


StassneyHorn

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It's concerning despite the data that most businesses and citizens don't feel positively about the economy. The admin can't solve biases and stupididity but they really need a plan/action to manage this. 
Yeah but a quarter pounder with cheese is $15.23! Trying to fill an entire formal dining room at the white house would now cost as much as an F-35!

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12 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

It’s because, while it’s a good economy, it doesn’t feel like a good economy to us average-earning blokes. How is that hard for people to understand? You can be right, because of the data, but continuously saying you are right because the “data says the economy is good so stop complaining”, that doesn’t make people racking up debt to keep the same quality of life warm at night. 

If you decide to rack up the debt, instead of changing your consumption, you have decided that yes it’s a good economy and I can pay it back.

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On 11/18/2023 at 7:36 AM, Biff Tannen said:

Not to mention that corporations kept prices jacked up because they fucking felt like it. Chicken wings went from $13 for 10 pieces to $20 and never came back down, despite wholesale costs going down. Fuck em all. 

 

On 11/18/2023 at 8:09 AM, Underdog said:

That’d be a lot of chicken fucking. 

 

fixy

 

 

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3 hours ago, BeardIP said:

It’s because, while it’s a good economy, it doesn’t feel like a good economy to us average-earning blokes. How is that hard for people to understand? You can be right, because of the data, but continuously saying you are right because the “data says the economy is good so stop complaining”, that doesn’t make people racking up debt to keep the same quality of life warm at night. 

You need to explain this to me, because I don't understand it.

For the average-earning bloke, this isn't just a good economy; it's a great economy.  The average-earning bloke has no worries about unemployment.  Even if he lost his job, he'd be able to find a new one in very short order.

The average-earning bloke's purchasing power has never been higher.  And as a result of that, the average-earning bloke's debt has increased consistent with the pattern seen during economic expansions (consumer debt only decreases during recessions).  People are taking on more debt because they can afford it and are secure in their income streams.  Consequently, the number of houses in active foreclosure is at its lowest point in years, and the number of mortgages that are delinquent is running well below pre-pandemic levels.

So the average-earning bloke has a job, is secure in that job, has plenty of money to spend, and is paying his mortgage and credit cards.  So yeah--it's pretty fucking hard for me to understand why it doesn't feel like a good economy to said bloke.

1 hour ago, BeardIP said:

I spent $36 today for an unsweet tea, 13 wings, and a side salad at Pluckers today (including tip). It's crazy and reminded me why I almost never eat out for lunch.

Pluckers has that effect on people.

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I once had a lobster roll and 4 tito's & soda at Liberty for $78, so this hits close to home.  I ended up almost late for my flight so had to 'the Fall Guy' off of that moving walkway in the United terminal with my roller bag and sprint to the gate.  I dropped the greasy receipt during my sad rush to the jetway so I never did recoup that expense from work.  Just as well, nobody wants to turn in a $78 single meal in Jersey.  Little did I know, I coulda gone viral.  Discretion being the better part of Newark.  

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5 hours ago, BeardIP said:

I spent $36 today for an unsweet tea, 13 wings, and a side salad at Pluckers today (including tip). It's crazy and reminded me why I almost never eat out for lunch.

Wat 

Pluckers has an 8 wing lunch combo with a side for like $15 and a drink is, what, $3? You couldn’t eat 5 less wings and spend ~$25?

13 isn’t even one of their combo sizes?

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8 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Did the lunch special (8) and added 5 wings a la carte. 5 wings is $8.50. https://pluckersweb.com/drink-menus/Pickup-delivery-online-menu.pdf

I guess I could have stopped at 8 wings, because apparently anything more is gluttonous. Crazy because when I was younger I easily at 15-20 and had all those free coupons for the Pluckers in West Campus from games.

Also TIL that Pluckers is considered gross and not respected on the level of BWW and Wingstop.

 

When drinking I put away wings hardcore, 13 at Pluckers is kind of nuts. What a weird number first and for lunch wtf? 

8 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Did the lunch special (8) and added 5 wings a la carte. 5 wings is $8.50. https://pluckersweb.com/drink-menus/Pickup-delivery-online-menu.pdf

I guess I could have stopped at 8 wings, because apparently anything more is gluttonous. Crazy because when I was younger I easily at 15-20 and had all those free coupons for the Pluckers in West Campus from games.

Also TIL that Pluckers is considered gross and not respected on the level of BWW and Wingstop.

 

When drinking I put away wings hardcore, 13 at Pluckers is kind of nuts. What a weird number first and for lunch wtf? 

8 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Did the lunch special (8) and added 5 wings a la carte. 5 wings is $8.50. https://pluckersweb.com/drink-menus/Pickup-delivery-online-menu.pdf

I guess I could have stopped at 8 wings, because apparently anything more is gluttonous. Crazy because when I was younger I easily at 15-20 and had all those free coupons for the Pluckers in West Campus from games.

Also TIL that Pluckers is considered gross and not respected on the level of BWW and Wingstop.

 

When drinking I put away wings hardcore, 13 at Pluckers is kind of nuts. What a weird number first and for lunch wtf? 

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3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

For the average-earning bloke, this isn't just a good economy; it's a great economy.  The average-earning bloke has no worries about unemployment.  Even if he lost his job, he'd be able to find a new one in very short order.

The average-earning bloke's purchasing power has never been higher.  And as a result of that, the average-earning bloke's debt has increased consistent with the pattern seen during economic expansions (consumer debt only decreases during recessions).  People are taking on more debt because they can afford it and are secure in their income streams.  Consequently, the number of houses in active foreclosure is at its lowest point in years, and the number of mortgages that are delinquent is running well below pre-pandemic levels.

So the average-earning bloke has a job, is secure in that job, has plenty of money to spend, and is paying his mortgage and credit cards.  So yeah--it's pretty fucking hard for me to understand why it doesn't feel like a good economy to said bloke.

I think you're mixing signals here. Average/median wage earners haven't really gotten a pay bump AND inflation continues to eat away at savings. """The economy""" doing well means the stock market is doing well, which means top earners are doing well. There's a whole shitload of folks left behind in those statistics, and most don't have the stability to jump between jobs and hope for better wages without worry of getting evicted because they can't pay rent because they're waiting for a management job. 

 

On that note, id betcha a dollar the reason mortgage delinquency rates are down is because of the massive growth of investment home loans. Investors aren't gonna welch on their principal payments - it's mostly homeowners at the end of their rope going delinquent. 

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40 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Wat 

Pluckers has an 8 wing lunch combo with a side for like $15 and a drink is, what, $3? You couldn’t eat 5 less wings and spend ~$25?

13 isn’t even one of their combo sizes?

you forgot the two motherpluckers.

37 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Also TIL that Pluckers is considered gross and not respected on the level of BWW and Wingstop.

 

bw3 is terrible and only useful for passing time when you're getting your tires rotated at the costco in greenway plaza.  wingstop is pretty decent takeout wings (5 atomic 5 cajun 5 lemon pepper, fries cajun seasoned, blue cheese dressing and a raspberry vanilla coke from the freestyle). 

 

pluckers was pretty good when it first came to houston but as the years have passed it seems to have just ratcheted downhill.  partly i blame the weird service system where your waiter isn't the person responsible for getting the food on the table, and who basically isn't empowered to do anything or make sure anything is right because god forbid someone go to the back and get a dressing without it getting into the POS. 

 

also last time i was there it was like $60 for dinner for me.  two motherpluckers will do that.

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5 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

I don't know that I believe you story. 15 wings (plus fries) seems like Joey Chestnut tier of eating if 13 wings is considered gluttony around here.

iirc wingstop wings are a bit smaller than pluckers wings, but i also didn't say i ate them all in one sitting.  usually eat 7-9 of them, save the rest and some fries for the next day or so. 

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32 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I think you're mixing signals here. Average/median wage earners haven't really gotten a pay bump AND inflation continues to eat away at savings. """The economy""" doing well means the stock market is doing well, which means top earners are doing well. There's a whole shitload of folks left behind in those statistics, and most don't have the stability to jump between jobs and hope for better wages without worry of getting evicted because they can't pay rent because they're waiting for a management job. 

 

On that note, id betcha a dollar the reason mortgage delinquency rates are down is because of the massive growth of investment home loans. Investors aren't gonna welch on their principal payments - it's mostly homeowners at the end of their rope going delinquent. 

i'd think investors are far more likely to consider strategic defaults than owner-occupied.  as to low-wage workers:

Quote

Labor costs are part of the equation, and low-wage workers such as those that work in fast-food establishments have seen a rapid growth in pay, substantially eroding wage inequality, notes Josh Bivens, chief economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank. 

"Consider one metric of inequality — the ratio of the 90th-percentile wage (the wage earned by the worker who has higher pay than 90% of the workforce) to the 10th-percentile wage. Between 1980 and 2019, this ratio rose enormously by about 34%. But a full third of this 39-year increase has been erased in less than three years after 2019," Bivens recently wrote in a blog post. 

The 10th-percentile hourly wage was $12.57 in 2022, up 9% during that three-year period, he noted. "If this inequality reduction sticks, it could well be the single most important development in the economy in decades," Bivens said.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fast-food-inflation-2023-why-it-is-high-mcdonalds-prices/

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10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is how you do the economy/inflation

 

That awkward moment when Spirit Airlines execs rethink their Pewter Lounge pre-flight offering of "All-you-can-drink-before-boarding" policy.

Thanks a lot, Biden's FAA! 

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11 hours ago, Captainant said:

I think you're mixing signals here. Average/median wage earners haven't really gotten a pay bump AND inflation continues to eat away at savings. """The economy""" doing well means the stock market is doing well, which means top earners are doing well. There's a whole shitload of folks left behind in those statistics, and most don't have the stability to jump between jobs and hope for better wages without worry of getting evicted because they can't pay rent because they're waiting for a management job. 

 

On that note, id betcha a dollar the reason mortgage delinquency rates are down is because of the massive growth of investment home loans. Investors aren't gonna welch on their principal payments - it's mostly homeowners at the end of their rope going delinquent. 

The statistics don't bear that out.  Wages are increasing at a >5% clip this year; inflation is at 3.2%.  Wage growth has exceeded inflation throughout 2023.

I'm sorry, man, but this is entirely a case of "feels" and misinformation.  The truth is that the economy is great.  For everyone.  And particularly for those at the bottom of the wage scale.  Arguing otherwise is to ignore every measure of objective reality.

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14 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

The statistics don't bear that out.  Wages are increasing at a >5% clip this year; inflation is at 3.2%.  Wage growth has exceeded inflation throughout 2023.

I'm sorry, man, but this is entirely a case of "feels" and misinformation.  The truth is that the economy is great.  For everyone.  And particularly for those at the bottom of the wage scale.  Arguing otherwise is to ignore every measure of objective reality.

Real median household income in the US is just about at $75k/yr

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html

Knock off a third of that to cover taxes if you're looking at around $53k left in take home pay. Median mortgage payment is right around $2k/mo right now. That's at least $24k gone before you even get to insurance, PMI, HOA costs, and utility costs. Count in a car or transportation costs for work, and you're looking at way south of $20k/yr left over for food, clothing, kids, and everything else.

 

That's not much money these days my man. Sure if you zoom out far enough and look at enough sythnetic metrics it looks peachy - and it definitely us in a top income bracket! - but the reality isn't so nice for most of everyone else.

Edited by Captainant
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2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Real median household income in the US is just about at $75k/yr

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html

Knock off a third of that to cover taxes if you're looking at around $53k left in take home pay. Median mortgage payment is right around $2k/mo right now. That's at least $24k gone before you even get to insurance, PMI, HOA costs, and utility costs. Count in a car or transportation costs for work, and you're looking at way south of $20k/yr left over for food, clothing, kids, and everything else.

 

That's not much money these days my man. Sure if you zoom out far enough and look at enough sythnetic metrics it looks peachy - and it definitely us in a top income bracket! - but the reality isn't so nice for most of everyone else.

And what I'm saying is that that's still better than it was five years ago.  Or ten years ago.  Or certainly 20 years ago.  The economy is performing well for everyone.  

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7 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Real median household income in the US is just about at $75k/yr

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html

Knock off a third of that to cover taxes if you're looking at around $53k left in take home pay. Median mortgage payment is right around $2k/mo right now. That's at least $24k gone before you even get to insurance, PMI, HOA costs, and utility costs. Count in a car or transportation costs for work, and you're looking at way south of $20k/yr left over for food, clothing, kids, and everything else.

 

That's not much money these days my man. Sure if you zoom out far enough and look at enough sythnetic metrics it looks peachy - and it definitely us in a top income bracket! - but the reality isn't so nice for most of everyone else.

I'll chime in with my anecdote as a white male that just went through the job hunting process for several months.  I have been unemployed (by choice) since this past April and started job hunting again in September.  I was looking for white collar jobs on a similar level to what I have had for the past several years.  With close to a decade of experience, I was barely able to even get a nibble for jobs that pre-pandemic I would have been a shoe-in for.  Luckily, I got back in at my old company and even got a 20% raise because of "the market", which is ridiculous for many other reasons that I won't get into here.

Could I have gone out and gotten a service job in one day?  Sure.  But my income would have been 1/3 or less of what I was accustomed to.  When I look at the low unemployment rate, I take that into consideration.  Sure there are jobs out there.  Do a lot of them pay anything that would allow me to live a decent life in Austin, Texas?  Doubtful.

Now, we made some changes in our spending habits to combat this situation and our savings were more than enough to cover everything, but I am in a very fortunate situation that allows me to do these things.

For the "average joe", I can see why the "economy" feels like it's not great.  There are so many factors at play here.  I think the "economy" in general is probably doing fine, but Americans suck at finances and consume WAY too much, so anything that upsets the apple cart even just a bit feels like the world is ending for many.  

This could and should be a thread unto its own.

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The vast majority of people are already locked into mortgages with much lower rates on homes that were much cheaper than they are now. Assuming all median income earners are looking to buy homes right now/or blocked from the process is a rather large assumption being made.


Other than that, PCE came in as expected today and the Euro zone inflation numbers have had their back blown out and is all the way down to 2.4%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/pce-inflation-report-october-2023-.html
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-inflation-tumbles-pitting-ecb-against-markets-2023-11-30/

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25 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

It's fucking insane to me that leftists are refusing to acknowledge this simply because they don't like Biden. He adopted a ton of progressive economic policies that they championed and those policies fucking worked! More income is going to those on the lower economic rungs than we've seen in my fucking lifetime. Unions are bouncing back, even despite SCOTUS' efforts to destroy them. Workers have more bargaining power and a better labor market than they've had since the 1960s, if not even earlier.  And it's pretty clear now that inflation was primarily supply-chain driven, as a lot of progressive economists argued, and now that supply chain problems have generally been worked out (with help from Biden admin policy) inflation has been beaten. This is all proof that progressive economic policies work.

Yeah, shit is far from perfect. Prices for most goods won't actually come back down (absent a recession), because that's not how it works. Housing prices are still too high in most places people want to live, but that's not really something that can easily be addressed at the federal level.  And healthcare costs are their own monster. But for fuck's sake, the left's position should be "look at us, we were right about this shit! Yes, there's much more to do, and we have answers for those problems too!"  

As recently as five years ago, the idea that we'd ever see an American labor market that was this good for workers again was unthinkable. It absolutely infuriates me how many so-called progressives are ready to throw away the progress they've made because they can't even recognize it.

Bad Teammate’s screen name checks out. 

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2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

It's fucking insane to me that leftists are refusing to acknowledge this simply because they don't like Biden. He adopted a ton of progressive economic policies that they championed and those policies fucking worked! More income is going to those on the lower economic rungs than we've seen in my fucking lifetime. Unions are bouncing back, even despite SCOTUS' efforts to destroy them. Workers have more bargaining power and a better labor market than they've had since the 1960s, if not even earlier.  And it's pretty clear now that inflation was primarily supply-chain driven, as a lot of progressive economists argued, and now that supply chain problems have generally been worked out (with help from Biden admin policy) inflation has been beaten. This is all proof that progressive economic policies work.

Yeah, shit is far from perfect. Prices for most goods won't actually come back down (absent a recession), because that's not how it works. Housing prices are still too high in most places people want to live, but that's not really something that can easily be addressed at the federal level.  And healthcare costs are their own monster. But for fuck's sake, the left's position should be "look at us, we were right about this shit! Yes, there's much more to do, and we have answers for those problems too!"  

As recently as five years ago, the idea that we'd ever see an American labor market that was this good for workers again was unthinkable. It absolutely infuriates me how many so-called progressives are ready to throw away the progress they've made because they can't even recognize it.

I think it comes down to a simple problem with progress/change: those who want it most (the marginalized) can't get it fast enough and those who oppose it (those in power) stall it at every turn because reasons. It's that last part I still don't understand. We've been our best when progress met expectations (see: space race). Everyone in between is comfortable enough that they can afford to let the marginalized fight with the powerful for a seat at the table. The difference today is the middle is actually starting to wake up and realize it's in their best interest to support the marginalized. And the powerful certainly don't want that to happen. So sure, you have those who cry that change isn't happening fast enough or in a way that they recognize as good for them. The task now is knock enough of them on the head and tell them to quit their shit and recognize both the strides that have been made since the last admin and the existential threat that exists if they choose to sit out, or worse, vote another way. Gonna be an interesting next ~11 months.

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3 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

It's fucking insane to me that leftists are refusing to acknowledge this simply because they don't like Biden. He adopted a ton of progressive economic policies that they championed and those policies fucking worked! More income is going to those on the lower economic rungs than we've seen in my fucking lifetime. Unions are bouncing back, even despite SCOTUS' efforts to destroy them. Workers have more bargaining power and a better labor market than they've had since the 1960s, if not even earlier.  And it's pretty clear now that inflation was primarily supply-chain driven, as a lot of progressive economists argued, and now that supply chain problems have generally been worked out (with help from Biden admin policy) inflation has been beaten. This is all proof that progressive economic policies work.

Yeah, shit is far from perfect. Prices for most goods won't actually come back down (absent a recession), because that's not how it works. Housing prices are still too high in most places people want to live, but that's not really something that can easily be addressed at the federal level.  And healthcare costs are their own monster. But for fuck's sake, the left's position should be "look at us, we were right about this shit! Yes, there's much more to do, and we have answers for those problems too!"  

As recently as five years ago, the idea that we'd ever see an American labor market that was this good for workers again was unthinkable. It absolutely infuriates me how many so-called progressives are ready to throw away the progress they've made because they can't even recognize it.

One of my first Antifa rallies I experienced was a “Fight for 15” rally in Chicago in 2015. Seemed like such an outrageous number at the time and I didnt think they’d ever get it done. Liz Warren was putting out releases how it should be $20 to keep up with inflation and it seemed so far away. I, myself, felt nothing but condescension at them for requesting such a high number, I was college educated and making less than $25/hr at the time. For awhile I resented the movement because I kept comparing their wage to mine, rather than expecting more out of C level officers and management for pay. I think it’s a fairly common mistake detractor's make in their assessment.

Now it’s widespread and even expected at most fast food places. I think Chicago McDonalds start at $16.25 now. Inaction by our favorite libertarians and talk radio to say there shouldn’t be a minimum wage at all backfired. States had referendums on their own minimum wage, and like all librul policies up for votes, they pass overwhelmingly because they’re popular, like Medicaid expansion.

Spike the fucking football, dance in the end zone, and let people know who support it.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

The task now is knock enough of them on the head and tell them to quit their shit and recognize both the strides that have been made since the last admin and the existential threat that exists if they choose to sit out, or worse, vote another way

This. 

They may think progress is slow, but the speed at which regressiveness would fly through a GOP House, Senate and White House will happen so fast, they'll wake up with no rights and being herded into camps. 

And that is not some hyperbole, we know what they'll do. 

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37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They may think progress is slow, but the speed at which regressiveness would fly through a GOP House, Senate and White House will happen so fast, they'll wake up with no rights and being herded into camps. 

And that is not some hyperbole, we know what they'll do. 

“And let me tell you why GOP run gulags are great news for democrats!”

-Paul Begala/Donna Brazile braintrust probably 

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Ran into this article today about NC and Medicaid expansion going live Dec 1. Estimated to be around 600k. Feds will go from paying 67% to 90% as usual. Reps didn’t trust the 90% number it seemed like and needed to see it play out.

Expansion adds hundreds of thousands of North Carolinians to Medicaid

https://www.wunc.org/health/2023-12-01/north-carolina-medicaid-expansion-live-first-southeast

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