88th Texas Legislature

[Evil Bill Obrien 3195]

InB4 Jeff Leach realizes maybe state representatives shouldn't be posting bare asses of people in the House gallery on Twitter...
 

[tx 3 putt 76421]

Coming soon to Texas ….

 

[tx 3 putt 76421]

16 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

InB4 Jeff Leach realizes maybe state representatives shouldn't be posting bare asses of people in the House gallery on Twitter...
 

 

[royiv 9172]

8 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Look at those heroes. They'll step right up and neutralize the threat of an unarmed person that's half their size, but put them in a situation where a shooter is slaughtering children....

[TexEx15 17487]

8 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

 

 

I will be the last to defend the Texas GQP but it should be noted I think most of these rambling “dumb” questions came during local and consent when freshmen legislators were passing their first bills and being “hazed” by their peers. Not to mention that at least one clip was a democrat on the back mic. I’m sure there have been folks drunk on the floor before but not sure using L&C hazing is the best evidence.

[MissingInAction 24828]

56 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

I will be the last to defend the Texas GQP but it should be noted I think most of these rambling “dumb” questions came during local and consent when freshmen legislators were passing their first bills and being “hazed” by their peers. Not to mention that at least one clip was a democrat on the back mic. I’m sure there have been folks drunk on the floor before but not sure using L&C hazing is the best evidence.

Are you drunk?

[scottsins 1953]

Texas House passed HB 218, Marijuana decriminalization bill, which I'm sure will die in the Senate. It does give me a little hope that Hemp THC will survive the session. 
Texas House passes Marijuana decriminalization bill 

Lol. They are going to ban Delta 8 this session and no one will do shit to stop it.

[atomheartbevo 89457]

From that link @tx 3 putt posted, she's right, but nothing will happen for now, but I think this stuff is going to start stirring a lot of people up, including the moves against Harris County's elections. 

This is today's Texas GQP - they are fucking scared of the people.

 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

I’m sure the House Sergeant at Arms will get right on this. Right after he’s done messing with the clocks.

[safe sex 11686]

If any Dems make an actual scene about this (not just posting on Twitter), they'll just get banned from speaking or booted from their seats like in Montana (where a court today declined to intervene for Ms. Zephyr) or in Tennessee.

[atomheartbevo 89457]

1 hour ago, safe sex said:

If any Dems make an actual scene about this (not just posting on Twitter), they'll just get banned from speaking or booted from their seats like in Montana (where a court today declined to intervene for Ms. Zephyr) or in Tennessee.

I'm probably wrong, but I feel like the Republicans are starting to enter the fuck around and find out phase of things, because they are getting challenged more, and the Uvalde stuff is not going away, and Abbott pissed a fuckton of people off over the comments about the 5 folks who were killed, and Houston/Harris County now know that the Texas GQP has openly declared a political war of sorts (it was a Cold War of sorts, but it's now firmly in the open), and there's plenty of other smaller stories that may seem like they are lost in the shuffle, but they are pissing off people/groups here and there.  

Friend that works at an analytics/polling company here in Austin that monitors social media, etc. (and farms out the occasional phone polls that we all ignore) has not given me any specific info (else he'd be violating his contract), but has pointed to some things here and there on social media, etc., that are clearly showing a growing sense of anger/resentment at the state leadership.  And when you factor in the smarminess of people like Abbott, Ted Cruz, Patrick, etc., and their open joy/enthusiasm in fucking over Texans they don't like...

It just is starting to feel a bit eerie.  If we start seeing more and more clashes over the coming days and weeks, both as the legislature winds down, but also just a "fuck you" towards the state leadership....the Republicans I know and talk to, they don't see a lot of the anger or resentment that is out there outside of a few video highlights, and while they admit that the whole "small government Republicans" is clearly a bunch of bullshit, they don't seem to understand what a lot of people are feeling about Abbott wanting to take over Harris County's elections.

[Gengs1 2583]

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm probably wrong, but I feel like the Republicans are starting to enter the fuck around and find out phase of things, because they are getting challenged more, and the Uvalde stuff is not going away, and Abbott pissed a fuckton of people off over the comments about the 5 folks who were killed, and Houston/Harris County now know that the Texas GQP has openly declared a political war of sorts (it was a Cold War of sorts, but it's now firmly in the open), and there's plenty of other smaller stories that may seem like they are lost in the shuffle, but they are pissing off people/groups here and there.  

Friend that works at an analytics/polling company here in Austin that monitors social media, etc. (and farms out the occasional phone polls that we all ignore) has not given me any specific info (else he'd be violating his contract), but has pointed to some things here and there on social media, etc., that are clearly showing a growing sense of anger/resentment at the state leadership.  And when you factor in the smarminess of people like Abbott, Ted Cruz, Patrick, etc., and their open joy/enthusiasm in fucking over Texans they don't like...

It just is starting to feel a bit eerie.  If we start seeing more and more clashes over the coming days and weeks, both as the legislature winds down, but also just a "fuck you" towards the state leadership....the Republicans I know and talk to, they don't see a lot of the anger or resentment that is out there outside of a few video highlights, and while they admit that the whole "small government Republicans" is clearly a bunch of bullshit, they don't seem to understand what a lot of people are feeling about Abbott wanting to take over Harris County's elections.

 

they will forget about it by end of week. A caravan will be showing on fox/onn and they will get back in line. If Uvalde didn’t change anything, this won’t. What you actually think ppl will not vote R on the next election, they will just say, this sure beats voting D

[troph 24575]

14 hours ago, royiv said:

Look at those heroes. They'll step right up and neutralize the threat of an unarmed person that's half their size, but put them in a situation where a shooter is slaughtering children....

We can have insurrections, now peaceful protests and unguided tours by patriots no big deal. 

[atomheartbevo 89457]

3 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

they will forget about it by end of week. A caravan will be showing on fox/onn and they will get back in line. If Uvalde didn’t change anything, this won’t. What you actually think ppl will not vote R on the next election, they will just say, this sure beats voting D

I 100% agree about Republicans in Texas - they are fucking snowflakes who will fall in line and do what Abbott, Patrick, etc. tell them to do, and will pull the (R) lever no matter who is on the ballot.

But everybody else? The Republicans are pushing through this legislation to take over Harris County's elections, because they fully intend on taking over those elections, because something has them spooked.  When they try to throw out the votes of the third largest county in the US,  you think those voters living in Houston/Harris County are going to take that laying down?  And you don't think people elsewhere won't start shit?

I'm not on Brisket's ledge, but Abbott, Patrick, etc. fully intend to take control of the Harris County elections. 

[Gengs1 2583]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

But everybody else? The Republicans are pushing through this legislation to take over Harris County's elections, because they fully intend on taking over those elections, because something has them spooked.  When they try to throw out the votes of the third largest county in the US,  you think those voters living in Houston/Harris County are going to take that laying down?  And you don't think people elsewhere won't start shit?

 

Yes they are going to take it laying down. If the ppl from Houston/Harris county protest, wheels will send in the nations guard to put them down and say, see they are trying to disrupt this election and we need to stop them. The rabbit Rs can’t wait to take their guns and shot at the protesters because they are itching for it (the latest example is a guy wanting to shoot a 5/6 year old who was looking for her kitten). Any clash will result in these WOKE Antifa Ds are lawless and need to be stopped and independents will nod and agree. 
 

Maybe I am too pessimistic but they are getting away with too much shit and keeping their Power. I just lost fait when the district that the school shooting happened voted 60% in favor of the ppl who say we need more guns and less restrictions on them to shoot your kids. 

[Macanudo 12928]

44 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

  When they try to throw out the votes of the third largest county in the US,  you think those voters living in Houston/Harris County are going to take that laying down?  And you don't think people elsewhere won't start shit?

 

If Dancing with the Stars or The Voice is on when they announce the votes are getting thrown out, nothing will happen.

[TexEx15 17487]

We are a few years away from arming high school students so they can fight back against school shooters. 
 

https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=88R&Bill=HB2976

[kevwun 15662]

You mean so they can shoot teachers who mention anything on the banned list.

Edited May 3, 2023 by kevwun

[Evil Bill Obrien 3195]

45 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

We are a few years away from arming high school students so they can fight back against school shooters. 
 

https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=88R&Bill=HB2976

Got a friend who has been keeping tabs on the Lege and usually will send a text in the group chat when outrageous shit is going down in the House/Senate. Every time he does it just raises my blood pressure to the moon and today is no different, these chuds in the House rejected an amendment that would add de-escelation techniques to the curriculum of this class...so maybe kids will try to solve their problems without blasting people away first. 

[Woland 729]

Got a friend who has been keeping tabs on the Lege and usually will send a text in the group chat when outrageous shit is going down in the House/Senate. Every time he does it just raises my blood pressure to the moon and today is no different, these chuds in the House rejected an amendment that would add de-escelation techniques to the curriculum of this class...so maybe kids will try to solve their problems without blasting people away first. 

De-escalation is so woke.

[TexEx15 17487]

1 hour ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Got a friend who has been keeping tabs on the Lege and usually will send a text in the group chat when outrageous shit is going down in the House/Senate. Every time he does it just raises my blood pressure to the moon and today is no different, these chuds in the House rejected an amendment that would add de-escelation techniques to the curriculum of this class...so maybe kids will try to solve their problems without blasting people away first. 

Some of the amendments blocked include:

Requiring including teaching on safe storage in the course

Teaching about suicide prevention in the course

Requiring that the course cannot use live firearms 

Requiring districts to work with Texas School Safety Center when developing curriculum 

[Beau Vine 54008]

2 hours ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Got a friend who has been keeping tabs on the Lege and usually will send a text in the group chat when outrageous shit is going down in the House/Senate. Every time he does it just raises my blood pressure to the moon and today is no different, these chuds in the House rejected an amendment that would add de-escelation techniques to the curriculum of this class...so maybe kids will try to solve their problems without blasting people away first. 

That would require hiring thousands of librool, Marxist indoctrinated De-Escalation Experts.

[royiv 9172]

26 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Some of the amendments blocked include:

Requiring including teaching on safe storage in the course

Teaching about suicide prevention in the course

Requiring that the course cannot use live firearms 

Requiring districts to work with Texas School Safety Center when developing curriculum 

Surprised that it doesn't require that the curriculum be developed by the NRA.

[Woland 729]

Surprised that it doesn't require that the curriculum be developed by the NRA.

That will be the TEA, so there is plenty of time.

[atomheartbevo 89457]

6 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

Yes they are going to take it laying down. If the ppl from Houston/Harris county protest, wheels will send in the nations guard to put them down and say, see they are trying to disrupt this election and we need to stop them.

The Texas National Guard is not what you think it is.  There's around 19,000 Texas National Guard from 100 communities around the state, 4,500 of them or so are already currently deployed to the border, and the rest of the 14,000 are scattered around a state of 24 million people, and most of them are not going to be ready, equipped, or trained to deal with large-scale riots - they are mechanics, medical, admin, drivers, armored, aviation, etc. and the state is already struggling to keep paychecks coming because of Abbott's border stunt.

Keep in mind plenty are pissed at having their lives/college education/etc. disrupted so Abbott can have them babysit the border - a big chunk are in the NG paying off their college/attending college (Texas National Guard provides up to $9,000 a year for 5 years and they sell the shit out of that), plus plenty were active-duty and switched to Guard to continue benefits/retirement, etc.  They aren't there to gun down fellow Texans because Abbott throws a temper tantrum, they are there for college or benefits, or believe it's good to do some military service but active-duty is not for them.

But let's go back to that 19,000 or so number.  There's 4.7 million people in Harris County.  2.6 million in Dallas County.  2 million people in Bexar County.  1. 3 million in Travis County.   If shit starts going down, Abbott may have 5,000 at most out of the 19,000, and I'm being extremely generous here (because I remember my "riot training"), who could actually handle riots, and that's not enough for Harris County by itself.  Shit, 10,000 ain't enough.  And if Abbott does this, it's going to look like he's trying to steal the election, so I have a feeling plenty of members will slow-roll answering any call-ups to help keep some Republican in office (didn't work for Trump, won't work for Republicans in Texas).

6 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

The rabbit Rs can’t wait to take their guns and shot at the protesters because they are itching for it (the latest example is a guy wanting to shoot a 5/6 year old who was looking for her kitten). Any clash will result in these WOKE Antifa Ds are lawless and need to be stopped and independents will nod and agree. 

If MAGA starts gunning down people in Houston because they don't like how they vote, it's already too late for the Rs in Texas (and some of the areas we are talking about, people will shoot back, and that scares MAGA).  And it's going to get a shitload of Texans who were on the fence/in the middle to get off that fence, out of that middle, and they aren't going to side with people gunning down innocent Texans who voted differently, because if they were cool with that, they wouldn't be on the fence or in the middle, they'd be wearing red hats.

6 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

Maybe I am too pessimistic but they are getting away with too much shit and keeping their Power. I just lost fait when the district that the school shooting happened voted 60% in favor of the ppl who say we need more guns and less restrictions on them to shoot your kids. 

The Republicans are doing this because they are losing power - they are seeing internal polling numbers that are scaring the shit out of them.  They wouldn't be taking these measures if they felt secure in their future.

And yeah, the Uvalde thing is shit, but it's rural West Texas.  Still, plenty spoke out and are continuing to speak out.

Edited May 3, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[Satchel 6908]

Why would the GOP bill give the SOS the authority to undo the will of Harris County voters while leaving Dallas County alone? Makes no sense.

[Brisketexan 104663]

I'm not on Brisket's ledge, but Abbott, Patrick, etc. fully intend to take control of the Harris County elections. 

Of course they do. It’s what fascists do. They’re not being shy about it, not even a little bit.

Also, we are no longer “ledge dwellers.” I stumbled across a Swedish restaurant chain (yep, they have locations in multiple cities), and I’m stealing the HELL out of their logo for our new club. Remember, we serve scotch out here:



Join now, get a free seat to watch the end of the Republic!

[atomheartbevo 89457]

1 hour ago, Satchel said:

Why would the GOP bill give the SOS the authority to undo the will of Harris County voters while leaving Dallas County alone? Makes no sense.

Harris County can flip the state on its own, if there was enough voter turnout.  Biden had the largest percentage of a Democrat since Jimmy Carter carried the state in 1976. If Trump makes it to 2024 and it's Trump vs Biden, and any Republicans stay home because of everything that happens to/with Trump between now and Nov 2024, it gets interesting.  Look at 2020 for Texas as a whole, and then Harris County vote totals as a whole.

2020:

• Trump: 5.9 million in Texas
• Biden: 5.25 million in Texas
• Difference: 650,000 votes

Harris County Voters (2020):

• 2.48 million registered voters
• 1.6 million voted
• Difference: 880 thousand didn't vote. 

Obviously you won't get 100% of registered voter turnout,

Harry County Registered Voter / Actually Voted Totals: (Bold/red lines are non-Presidential)

• 2004: 1,937,072 registered voters / 1,067,968 voted (55.1% of voters)

• 2006: 1,918,652 registered voters / 589,348 voted ( 30.7% of voters)

• 2008: 1,959,284 registered voters / 1,171,472 voted ( 59.8% of voters)

• 2010: 1,937,850 registered voters / 788,234 voted (  40.7% of voters)

• 2012: 2,000,011 registered voters / 1,185,722 voted ( 59.3%  of voters)

• 2014: 2,062,792 registered voters / 678,805 voted ( 32.9% of voters)

• 2016: 2,234,671 registered voters / 1,304,480 voted ( 58.4% of voters)

• 2018: 2,357,199 registered voters / 1,219,209 voted ( 52%  of voters)

• 2020: 2,480,522 registered voters / 1,633,557 voted ( 65.9% of voters)

• 2022: 2,568,463 registered voters / 1,102,418 voted ( 42.9%  of voters)

• 2024: ????

In the off (non-Presidential) years from 2004 on, actual voted was 31%, 41%, 33%, and then 52%, and 43%.  2018 and 2022 brought it on really fucking hard for Harris County voters.

From 2016 - 2020, there were 329,000 additional votes in Harris County, in the Presidential election, even though registered voters only jumped by 246,000.

From 2014 - 2022 in Harris County, 506,000 newly registered voters, and just from the 2016 election to the 2022 election, 333,000 new registered voters. 

And in 2016:

• Trump: 4.69 million
• Hillary: 3.88 million
• Difference: 810,000

And from the top of this post, 2020:

• Trump: 5.9 million in Texas (+ 1.2 million)
• Biden: 5.25 million in Texas (+1.37 million)
• Difference: 650,000 votes

In case you're wondering, the numbers are from official Texas numbers: https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/harris.shtml

Sure, Trump pulled in over 1.2 million that didn't vote in 2016, but Biden pulled in 1.37 million voters that didn't vote in 2016.  Whether it's the population increase, voter enthusiasm, voter registration drives, social media, the fact is that the Democrats found a helluva lot of votes between 2016 - 2020.

I had not really looked at the numbers going back nearly 20 years before tonight, but I absolutely see why the Republicans feel like they have to have the ability to take over Harris County voting.  The votes are there, especially as the Harris County area continues to grow.  If Democrats can crank up the registered voter turnout as well as increase voter registration, and Trump does his part to depress voter turnout on the (R) side (because they think he'll win Texas and lose the national so why waste time voting) it gets interesting, because you can see why Republicans are scared.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89457]

1 hour ago, Satchel said:

Why would the GOP bill give the SOS the authority to undo the will of Harris County voters while leaving Dallas County alone? Makes no sense.

TLDR: They only need to knock Harris County out of the voting to stay in power.

Oh, and I'd add that Abbott and Co. will be doing good just to try and micromanage Harris County's election.  I don't think they are competent enough to handle more than one large county and if shit goes down and people get pissed, there's not enough DPS and National Guard to handle Dallas and Harris Counties (not even enough to really handle Harris as I said, but definitely not two large metroplexes 3 hours apart).

[pyrohornIII 4809]

And Bettencourt is from Harris Co and has an axe to grind.  I'm guessing they feel he has enough goods on Harris Co voting issues of the past to hold up as justification for this power grab.

[Captainant 27472]

53 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

And Bettencourt is from Harris Co and has an axe to grind.  I'm guessing they feel he has enough goods on Harris Co voting issues of the past to hold up as justification for this power grab.

They have "goods on Harris Co voting issues" like trump and cruz had goods on the election being stolen. Which is to say: they have zero fucking evidence and are using the circular logic of "well enough people are concerned about it after I made it sound terrible on Fox/OANN so it must be real!"

For this bill in particular, I've posted several times how the state has yet to produce a shred of evidence to support their claims of elections being improperly run. They've been asked directly about it, and they always whatabout or weasel their way out of being truthful. 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13416]

7 minutes ago, Captainant said:

They have "goods on Harris Co voting issues" like trump and cruz had goods on the election being stolen. Which is to say: they have zero fucking evidence and are using the circular logic of "well enough people are concerned about it after I made it sound terrible on Fox/OANN so it must be real!"

For this bill in particular, I've posted several times how the state has yet to produce a shred of evidence to support their claims of elections being improperly run. They've been asked directly about it, and they always whatabout or weasel their way out of being truthful. 

 

Yep. Harris county did mistakenly run out of some paper (stupid f-ing system) in a few precincts that were corrected asap. The chronicle investigated and blue and red precincts experienced the same outages.

I find it incredible that it’s legal that citizens can be treated differently just because they live in a large county. Especially in terms of voting rights. Why not just eliminate Harris county voting altogether and let Abbott appoint the city and county officials.

[Captainant 27472]

15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I find it incredible that it’s legal that citizens can be treated differently just because they live in a large county. Especially in terms of voting rights. Why not just eliminate Harris county voting altogether and let Abbott appoint the city and county officials.

Well fortunately the wise John Roberts declared that there was no more voting discrimination happening, and gutted the voting rights act! Now the republicans don't have to worry about those silly little rights. And better yet, the republican courts will just simply say we deny standing to bring legal recourse! God bless the free market justice system. 

[Macanudo 12928]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I find it incredible that it’s legal that citizens can be treated differently just because they live in a large county municipality/special district. 

The residents of the northern Marianas, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Washington, D.C. beg to differ.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3195]

16 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

Some of the amendments blocked include:

Requiring including teaching on safe storage in the course

Teaching about suicide prevention in the course

Requiring that the course cannot use live firearms 

Requiring districts to work with Texas School Safety Center when developing curriculum 

Will admit I'm probably a bigger 2A/gun guy that the average Surly Cloak Room denizen but all of these seem like perfectly reasonable amendments to me. The fact that these all got shot down on pretty strict party line votes just further shows that the system and more specifically the Republican Party is totally broken/lost. 

Every once in a while when I have the TXLege house video feed on in the background some Rep goes on and on about how each of them are representing the will of aprox. 200,000 Texans and every time shit like this happens I just imagine these Reps must think they are all prince/princess of their own little fiefdoms doing whatever the big man above them wants, not what us peasants want.

[Js1 85131]

10 hours ago, Satchel said:

Why would the GOP bill give the SOS the authority to undo the will of Harris County voters while leaving Dallas County alone? Makes no sense.

Dallas County doesn’t a young, popular, charismatic future star Latina female immigrant running the county. Lina keeps pushing back and sniping at the Harris County GOP and state leadership and Abbott’s gotta assert his tiny little shriveled mouse balls 

[atomheartbevo 89457]

40 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

The residents of the northern Marianas, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Washington, D.C. beg to differ.

And the residents of Harris County, Texas, can join them.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13416]

Unfortunately Harris County has a pesky problem in that the Constitution does not recognize any power with counties or cities. Any county power is derived from what the state govt gives them. Hopefully there are enough non-Federalist judges out there that would finally put a stop to Texas disenfranchising Harris County residents.

Dems are getting too powerful that even gerrymandering is reaching it's limits and creating power risk for state reps and senators, which indirectly impacts statewide races too. The remaining option is making it more difficult if not illegal to vote Dem.

[Js1 85131]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Unfortunately Harris County has a pesky problem in that the Constitution does not recognize any power with counties or cities. Any county power is derived from what the state govt gives them. Hopefully there are enough non-Federalist judges out there that would finally put a stop to Texas disenfranchising Harris County residents.

Dems are getting too powerful that even gerrymandering is reaching it's limits and creating power risk for state reps and senators, which indirectly impacts statewide races too. The remaining option is making it more difficult if not illegal to vote Dem.

Lmao as if they care what the constitution says even if it did recognize cities and counties 

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2659]

I was confused because the bill I saw allowed the SOS to hold a new election in a county of 1 million or more with "good cause" blah blah, but I see the "engrossed" version now says 2.7 million. LOL so transparent with their targeting

[pacman 7331]

Business as usual, the party of pretending to care about sexual predators

 

[Smax 3800]

So how does this get challenged?

[Dahobbs 17450]

How would the mechanics of this work? If it is a presidential election, I don't see anyway that a new election could be held in time. And, even if a new election was held, it seems like the sort of thing that could actually back fire horribly for the GOP given that you may have a very motivated dem voter base if an entire election gets thrown out. I imagine the GOP voters might not be as pumped to go and do the process twice. 

[TwiceHorn 31304]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

How would the mechanics of this work? If it is a presidential election, I don't see anyway that a new election could be held in time. And, even if a new election was held, it seems like the sort of thing that could actually back fire horribly for the GOP given that you may have a very motivated dem voter base if an entire election gets thrown out. I imagine the GOP voters might not be as pumped to go and do the process twice. 

Yep, the fact that it purports to have an election do-over instead of just letting the House or Senate or Governor or SoS decide the election is somewhat gratifying.

But it makes it all but certain that if triggered in a presidential election, Harris County will be effectively erased because it can't hold another election fast enough.

[Paper_jam 831]

If the votes of two-three million people get thrown out to prop up a corrupt fascist kleptocracy, I want to see shit burn,

 

[troph 24575]

9 hours ago, Js1 said:

Dallas County doesn’t a young, popular, charismatic future star Latina female immigrant running the county. Lina keeps pushing back and sniping at the Harris County GOP and state leadership and Abbott’s gotta assert his tiny little shriveled mouse balls 

Acceptable use of genitalia as an insult. Approved. 

[atomheartbevo 89457]

5 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yep, the fact that it purports to have an election do-over instead of just letting the House or Senate or Governor or SoS decide the election is somewhat gratifying.

But it makes it all but certain that if triggered in a presidential election, Harris County will be effectively erased because it can't hold another election fast enough.

4 hours ago, Paper_jam said:

If the votes of two-three million people get thrown out to prop up a corrupt fascist kleptocracy, I want to see shit burn,

I think shit will burn if they try and erase Harris County's votes, and it won't be just in Harris County either - you'll see shit start up around the state. Republicans are really headed down the FAFO Highway with this, and they are going to get the DOJ in here in a big way.

With that said, they will only try and throw out Harris County's votes if the state is going to flip.  I am on the fence about it happening in 2024, but 2028?  Absolutely - look at the numbers that have been slowly building over the last 20 years (and it's not just Harris County, but they are big enough to carry the state over the finish line), and you know they won't have anybody with any kind of charisma in 2028 - DeSantis, Cruz, etc. are just walking sacks of shit that nobody cares about as long as they have an (R) next to their names.  Abbott will come in at most third in Republican primaries in 2028 in Texas, regardless of who else is running.

This legislation is the political equivalent of Chekhov's gun. It's being put in place to be used in the third act.

[tchookem 3900]

Got a friend who has been keeping tabs on the Lege and usually will send a text in the group chat when outrageous shit is going down in the House/Senate. Every time he does it just raises my blood pressure to the moon and today is no different, these chuds in the House rejected an amendment that would add de-escelation techniques to the curriculum of this class...so maybe kids will try to solve their problems without blasting people away first. 

If a cop can't handle de-escalation, how is a sophomore supposed to?

[Voldemort86 2259]

On 5/4/2023 at 12:46 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Harris County can flip the state on its own, if there was enough voter turnout.  Biden had the largest percentage of a Democrat since Jimmy Carter carried the state in 1976. If Trump makes it to 2024 and it's Trump vs Biden, and any Republicans stay home because of everything that happens to/with Trump between now and Nov 2024, it gets interesting.  Look at 2020 for Texas as a whole, and then Harris County vote totals as a whole.

2020:

• Trump: 5.9 million in Texas
• Biden: 5.25 million in Texas
• Difference: 650,000 votes

Harris County Voters (2020):

• 2.48 million registered voters
• 1.6 million voted
• Difference: 880 thousand didn't vote. 

Obviously you won't get 100% of registered voter turnout,

Harry County Registered Voter / Actually Voted Totals: (Bold/red lines are non-Presidential)

• 2004: 1,937,072 registered voters / 1,067,968 voted (55.1% of voters)

• 2006: 1,918,652 registered voters / 589,348 voted ( 30.7% of voters)

• 2008: 1,959,284 registered voters / 1,171,472 voted ( 59.8% of voters)

• 2010: 1,937,850 registered voters / 788,234 voted (  40.7% of voters)

• 2012: 2,000,011 registered voters / 1,185,722 voted ( 59.3%  of voters)

• 2014: 2,062,792 registered voters / 678,805 voted ( 32.9% of voters)

• 2016: 2,234,671 registered voters / 1,304,480 voted ( 58.4% of voters)

• 2018: 2,357,199 registered voters / 1,219,209 voted ( 52%  of voters)

• 2020: 2,480,522 registered voters / 1,633,557 voted ( 65.9% of voters)

• 2022: 2,568,463 registered voters / 1,102,418 voted ( 42.9%  of voters)

• 2024: ????

In the off (non-Presidential) years from 2004 on, actual voted was 31%, 41%, 33%, and then 52%, and 43%.  2018 and 2022 brought it on really fucking hard for Harris County voters.

From 2016 - 2020, there were 329,000 additional votes in Harris County, in the Presidential election, even though registered voters only jumped by 246,000.

From 2014 - 2022 in Harris County, 506,000 newly registered voters, and just from the 2016 election to the 2022 election, 333,000 new registered voters. 

And in 2016:

• Trump: 4.69 million
• Hillary: 3.88 million
• Difference: 810,000

And from the top of this post, 2020:

• Trump: 5.9 million in Texas (+ 1.2 million)
• Biden: 5.25 million in Texas (+1.37 million)
• Difference: 650,000 votes

In case you're wondering, the numbers are from official Texas numbers: https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/harris.shtml

Sure, Trump pulled in over 1.2 million that didn't vote in 2016, but Biden pulled in 1.37 million voters that didn't vote in 2016.  Whether it's the population increase, voter enthusiasm, voter registration drives, social media, the fact is that the Democrats found a helluva lot of votes between 2016 - 2020.

I had not really looked at the numbers going back nearly 20 years before tonight, but I absolutely see why the Republicans feel like they have to have the ability to take over Harris County voting.  The votes are there, especially as the Harris County area continues to grow.  If Democrats can crank up the registered voter turnout as well as increase voter registration, and Trump does his part to depress voter turnout on the (R) side (because they think he'll win Texas and lose the national so why waste time voting) it gets interesting, because you can see why Republicans are scared.

 

 

I’m so glad that dems have upped their game since then in midterm elections, but man 2010 and 2014 were costly as fuck elections. We lost them because democrat voters were lazy and happy with Obama being president.

2010 hurt so bad because of it being a red wave in a year at the start of a new decade. The maps were ratfucked all over the country and some haven’t recovered.

2014 we lost a bunch of senate seats and the senate itself which led to McConnell hoarding judge slots to deliver to trump in 2016 on a silver platter.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m so glad that dems have upped their game since then in midterm elections, but man 2010 and 2014 were costly as fuck elections. We lost them because democrat voters were lazy and happy with Obama being president.

Yeah, 2010 was really shit - feels like people don't realize how important elections are to redistricting.

I don't know what Dallas/San Antonio/Bexar/Austin/Travis look like in terms of voter registration and increases in the numbers voting over the last 20 years, but something has clearly been happening in Houston/Harris County that is scaring the Texas Republicans.

I'm a little more optimistic about things after looking at the numbers in HC and seeing how scared Abbott, Patrick, etc. are of people voting.  If they move to toss out Harris County, then that means the state has flipped.  They can fuck around with 2024, but if the Dems realize the state is flipping, it could energize the hell out of them going forward.