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Post-Beard Game 6: Ok State @ Texas, 8pm, LHN


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1 hour ago, shadow_operative said:

it is shocking how poorly we defend the three since beard left. if anyone out there still wonders just how much of it is the coaches and how much of it is the players, look no further than 2022-23 Texas. you subtract one person from a program of dozens, and it goes from an intense, smothering defensive team that is a favorite to make the FF, to a team with no identity that can give up 80, 90, 100+ points every night. it's unreal. 

Excuse me if I am extremely skeptical of this narrative. How many Texas teams looked like gods before being ground up and spit out by the Big 12? Sure things looked great early on, but how often has that happened? We started 17-0 in 2009. 

Oh but for sure it was a guarantee we would smother the Big 12 just like we did the first eight teams on our schedule. Because those teams are equivalent? I don't buy it. Don't get too impressed just because we beat Gonzaga and some shitty second tier teams in the pre-conference season. Even Shaka Smart did that shit on a regular basis. 'Oh did you see how we clamped down on Arkansas-Pine Bluff? Kansas was for sure finished if we just had Beard!" Whatever. Of course I was cautiously optimistic before Beard got arrested but I had seen that big pre-conference show before. 

But we will never know for sure.

In any case we are 17-3 and still ranked in the top 10. Pretty good for a team with "no identity". Let's go.

Edited by Valmy77
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4 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Excuse me if I am extremely skeptical of this narrative. How many Texas teams looked like gods before being ground up and spit out by the Big 12? Sure things looked great early on, but how often has that happened? We started 17-0 in 2009. 

Oh but for sure it was a guarantee we would smother the Big 12 just like we did the first eight teams on our schedule. Because those teams are equivalent? I don't buy it. Don't get too impressed just because we beat Gonzaga and some shitty second tier teams in the pre-conference season. Even Shaka Smart did that shit on a regular basis. 'Oh did you see how we clamped down on Arkansas-Pine Bluff? Kansas was for sure finished if we just had Beard!" Whatever. Of course I was cautiously optimistic before Beard got arrested but I had seen that big pre-conference show before. 

But we will never know for sure.

In any case we are 17-3 and still ranked in the top 10. Pretty good for a team with "no identity". Let's go.

KenPom non-conference numbers can warp people’s brains apparently. 

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50 minutes ago, HookEm said:

The fact that we are 6-2 in the brutal Big 12 with the drama around Beard is really incredible.

Except we’re 1-2 against the part of the big 12 that’s brutal.

5 of those 6 wins are against teams that are combined 6-24 in conference (and the bottom 4 teams in the conference).

I’d feel a lot better if we took care of baylor on our home court on Monday and split the games in Kansas. 

Edited by UTexasFight
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23 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Excuse me if I am extremely skeptical of this narrative. How many Texas teams looked like gods before being ground up and spit out by the Big 12? Sure things looked great early on, but how often has that happened? We started 17-0 in 2009. 

Oh but for sure it was a guarantee we would smother the Big 12 just like we did the first eight teams on our schedule. Because those teams are equivalent? I don't buy it. Don't get too impressed just because we beat Gonzaga and some shitty second tier teams in the pre-conference season. Even Shaka Smart did that shit on a regular basis. 'Oh did you see how we clamped down on Arkansas-Pine Bluff? Kansas was for sure finished if we just had Beard!" Whatever. Of course I was cautiously optimistic before Beard got arrested but I had seen that big pre-conference show before. 

But we will never know for sure.

In any case we are 17-3 and still ranked in the top 10. Pretty good for a team with "no identity". Let's go.

i mean, the slide started right away, and preceded big xii play. our first game post-beard we went to OT with Rice and gave up 81 points...to Rice. our kenpom rankings had been strong and consistent for the entirety of beard's career here (particularly this year), only for our ratings to come crashing down in 4/5 categories as soon as Terry took over. before Beard got canned Creighton, Illinois, and Gonzaga were the only teams to score more than 57 points against us, and even those teams had to really work for what they got. since beard left we've given up the 81 to #145 Rice, 72 vs #100 ULaLa, 72 vs #306 A&M Commerce, 116 to k state, 70 to TTU, 78 to ISU, and now 75 to an offensively challenged osu team.

bottom line: a)go read the kenpom thread and look at the screenshots- it's crystal clear that this team has been sliding since the first game without beard; the numbers show it. and b)just watch the games, because the product on the court shows it as well. this isn't a case of, "well big xii teams really good so they're doing better against us", this is a case of, "we were elite defensively in a ton of metrics and now we are flat out poor in areas that historically have been huge strengths under chris beard." the big xii being tough has nothing to do with osu having wide open threes available on every single possession- the loss of beard has everything to do with it. 

Edited by shadow_operative
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15 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

KenPom non-conference numbers can warp people’s brains apparently. 

terry coached several games against some very shitty non con opponents and our kenpom in numbers in those games were absolute fucking garbage compared to what we did in our non con under beard, as was the visible product on the court. 

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7 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Except we’re 1-2 against the part of the big 12 that’s brutal.

5 of those 6 wins are against teams that are combined 6-24 in conference (and the bottom 4 teams in the conference).

I’d feel a lot better if we took care of baylor on our home court on Monday and split the games in Kansas. 

yep. the only big xii game that we've won that we were predicted to lose by either kenpom or bpi was the wvu game. the meat of our schedule is still ahead of us. 

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45 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

i mean, the slide started right away, and preceded big xii play. our first game post-beard we went to OT with Rice and gave up 81 points...to Rice. our kenpom rankings had been strong and consistent for the entirety of beard's career here (particularly this year), only for our ratings to come crashing down in 4/5 categories as soon as Terry took over. before Beard got canned Creighton, Illinois, and Gonzaga were the only teams to score more than 57 points against us, and even those teams had to really work for what they got. since beard left we've given up the 81 to #145 Rice, 72 vs #100 ULaLa, 72 vs #306 A&M Commerce, 116 to k state, 70 to TTU, 78 to ISU, and now 75 to an offensively challenged osu team.

bottom line: a)go read the kenpom thread and look at the screenshots- it's crystal clear that this team has been sliding since the first game without beard; the numbers show it. and b)just watch the games, because the product on the court shows it as well. this isn't a case of, "well big xii teams really good so they're doing better against us", this is a case of, "we were elite defensively in a ton of metrics and now we are flat out poor in areas that historically have been huge strengths under chris beard." the big xii being tough has nothing to do with osu having wide open threes available on every single possession- the loss of beard has everything to do with it. 

I watched the games. I know what you are talking about. We really locked down on Arkansas-Pine Bluff and UTRGV. Really got that Ken Pom excited. Things have looked more shaky since Beard got arrested. I saw the Rice game and it looked bad. But hey fading out after a strong start is just what Texas Basketball historically has done for years and years. They looked more shaky last year going 10-8 in conference. I don't want to hear about the huge strengths we had under Chris Beard. We went 10-9 in the Big 12 regular season + Tournament and 1-1 in the NCAA Tournament. 11-10 in the games that matter most. That is what we did historically under Chris Beard. 

So yeah going 10-2 to start last year and impressing the Ken Pom going 7-1 is all well in good but we know that doesn't correlate with Big 12 and tournament success, or at least hasn't in a very long time. Chris Beard still had yet to prove he could do that at Texas. He never did so just wishcasting this scenario where we are dominating the Big 12 with him here I don't find convincing.  We will see if we can do better than 10-8 this year and 0-1 in the Big 12 Tournament.

And last I checked Illinois isn't that great as it turned out.

Edited by Valmy77
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listen, valmy, you of all people should recognize this- it's not at all dissimilar to last year's baseball season, just worse. early on last year texas baseball looked like the best team in the country, bar none. then we suffered a couple of crucial injuries, and some guys started regressing, and it became clear that the team was no longer a national title contender. this basketball team can still win the big xii tourney and even go to the elite 8 (if we shoot well in march this is 100% plausible), but they aren't winning the league and they aren't winning the national title. you don't have to be a soothsayer to see that. 

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1 hour ago, shadow_operative said:

i mean, the slide started right away, and preceded big xii play. our first game post-beard we went to OT with Rice and gave up 81 points...to Rice. our kenpom rankings had been strong and consistent for the entirety of beard's career here (particularly this year), only for our ratings to come crashing down in 4/5 categories as soon as Terry took over. before Beard got canned Creighton, Illinois, and Gonzaga were the only teams to score more than 57 points against us, and even those teams had to really work for what they got. since beard left we've given up the 81 to #145 Rice, 72 vs #100 ULaLa, 72 vs #306 A&M Commerce, 116 to k state, 70 to TTU, 78 to ISU, and now 75 to an offensively challenged osu team.

bottom line: a)go read the kenpom thread and look at the screenshots- it's crystal clear that this team has been sliding since the first game without beard; the numbers show it. and b)just watch the games, because the product on the court shows it as well. this isn't a case of, "well big xii teams really good so they're doing better against us", this is a case of, "we were elite defensively in a ton of metrics and now we are flat out poor in areas that historically have been huge strengths under chris beard." the big xii being tough has nothing to do with osu having wide open threes available on every single possession- the loss of beard has everything to do with it. 

This post proves what I have said about you for years. You have no clue. All you are capable of doing is quoting statistics because you have no idea about the mental, physical and emotional side of the game. You have no clue. You have no clue about the grind in the Big 12. Every game is a war. The only thing that is crystal clear is that your stunning lack of knowledge about the game.  Who gives a crap about kenpom other than you and a few others desperate to make posters think they know the game. 

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3 minutes ago, realgreggym said:

This post proves what I have said about you for years. You have no clue. All you are capable of doing is quoting statistics because you have no idea about the mental, physical and emotional side of the game. You have no clue. You have no clue about the grind in the Big 12. Every game is a war. The only thing that is crystal clear is that your stunning lack of knowledge about the game.  Who gives a crap about kenpom other than you and a few others desperate to make posters think they know the game. 

the snozberries taste like snozberries. 

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You don’t need KenPom numbers to see that this isn’t the same team post-Beard, but did we really think that there would be no drop off?

This team is and can still be a good team with the chance to have a better tourney run than we have had in more than a decade.

Instead of focusing on how much it sucks with the what could have been, I’m trying to enjoy watching this group coming together and salvaging this season.

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3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

It’s possible to be both happy about this teams play considering the circumstances and also concerned about things that are glaring issues.

Those aren’t mutually exclusive.

This. Would I prefer to be better defensively? Of course, it definitely helps in March. But the team has obviously been through a lot and for the first time since 2008, we have fantastic guard play. I was hoping for 11-7 in league play, that’s attainable 

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8 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

Excuse me if I am extremely skeptical of this narrative. How many Texas teams looked like gods before being ground up and spit out by the Big 12? Sure things looked great early on, but how often has that happened? We started 17-0 in 2009. 

Oh but for sure it was a guarantee we would smother the Big 12 just like we did the first eight teams on our schedule. Because those teams are equivalent? I don't buy it. Don't get too impressed just because we beat Gonzaga and some shitty second tier teams in the pre-conference season. Even Shaka Smart did that shit on a regular basis. 'Oh did you see how we clamped down on Arkansas-Pine Bluff? Kansas was for sure finished if we just had Beard!" Whatever. Of course I was cautiously optimistic before Beard got arrested but I had seen that big pre-conference show before. 

But we will never know for sure.

In any case we are 17-3 and still ranked in the top 10. Pretty good for a team with "no identity". Let's go.

Not to mention that Beard coached against the really shitty teams Texas played OOC.  In two of the 3 big non-conference games Gonzaga and Illinois were well above 40% against Texas.

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6-2 with 10 games to go.  

Need to be wins: WV, OU, @ Tech to get to 9 wins
Take 2/3: ISU, KU, Baylor to get to 11
Icing on the cake: take 1 of @ KU, @ Baylor, @ TCU, @ KSU to get to 12

11-7 should be very attainable.  12-6 isn't impossible. 13-5 would be a miracle, really, as we'd have to sweep the KU, Baylor, ISU home games and take one on the road out of the 4 toughest ones. 

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I think 12-6 is most likely - not "isn't impossible" - with an outside chance at 13 or 14 wins. 

Some of you keep acting like this is a middling B12 team. Texas is 1st in the conference in both kenpom and NET after last night's games. Sure - we've had an "easier" schedule than some other B12 teams but it's fairly marginal and we've played 4 at home, 4 on the road. Everyone else has at least 2 losses - and ours happen to be against the other 2 teams tied for 1st place.

Yes - we have a lot of tough games remaining. That street goes both ways. Those teams are welcome to pencil in wins against Texas but I wouldn't recommend it. Even the ISU game was winnable we just played like shit in the 2nd half and Terry really coached a zinger. 

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We finished 10-8 last year.  If we finish at least 11-7 with everything this team had to go through, I'll be thrilled. 

Finish 1 game better in conference than last year, finish the year at least 5-6 (with an L to Tennessee) for 22-9 before the Big 12 tournament and I'll be pretty happy, especially if we can get to the Sweet 16. 

Surprise me, Rodney! 

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2 minutes ago, Revolution512 said:

Okie St isn’t great but they can defend. We just hung 89 on a team that was ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency right? Texas took it to them and made them play fast. There’s things to like without question.

I love that this team can score under Rodney. Feels like one thing our teams of the past were missing - consistent offense.  You won’t make a Final Four with a shitty defense but you can get to the second weekend with a great offense. 

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9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

We finished 10-8 last year.  If we finish at least 11-7 with everything this team had to go through, I'll be thrilled. 

Finish 1 game better in conference than last year, finish the year at least 5-6 (with an L to Tennessee) for 22-9 before the Big 12 tournament and I'll be pretty happy, especially if we can get to the Sweet 16. 

Surprise me, Rodney! 

I get it. But this is a better team than last year - Beard or no Beard. We were 5-3 through 8 last season against probably an easier schedule - and were 5-4 through 9. 

Sir Jabari and Tyrese is basically a wash with AJ and Ramey. 

Disu is improved and healthy.

Carr is playing like a different person.

Bishop and Allen are both a year more experienced.

Cunningham is improved. 

And we're getting spot minutes from two talented freshman. 

Also - this isn't the worst coaching staff in the country. Their floor and ceiling with Beard was higher but Terry is a decent bus driver and is coaching about as well as we could have hoped. 

Over a one game sample size in the tournament this team is going to make me nervous - but over 18 games in the B12 they're going to continue having nights where they're just straight up better than the other team and there isn't a damn thing the other team can do about it. 

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9 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

i mean, the slide started right away, and preceded big xii play. our first game post-beard we went to OT with Rice and gave up 81 points...to Rice.

Call me crazy but maybe waking up to the news that their head coach is a fucking moron who got arrested for choking his fiancee threw the team off just a bit that day

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9 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

previous years have nothing to do with this year, and previous collapses are not harbingers of any future "collapses". this team has, by all statistical and empirical measures, very clearly taken a step back since chris beard was removed as head coach.

honestly who fucking cares? that's over and done with. Chris Beard is gone and he's never coming back as our head coach.

You said repeatedly that losses during the regular season under Beard were no big deal because that's part of his coaching philosophy. Now we're winning under Terry and apparently that is no big deal because KenPom.

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

It’s possible to be both happy about this teams play considering the circumstances and also concerned about things that are glaring issues.

Those aren’t mutually exclusive.

That's fair but the biggest issue I see is that Hunter went from looking All-Conference to playing like trash

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4 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

It's our version of Golden State's old "death lineup"

It’s the lineup they’re closing games with. 

That big 3 against Tech from Cunningham was also with no Bishop/Disu. Sometimes they go a little bigger with Mitchell instead of 3 guards but recently it’s been 3 guards, Allen, and Cunningham. 

The Allen and Cunningham combo at the 4/5 creates a lot of weird match ups and is difficult to defend. 

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31 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

Your boy was there last night w a media pass. Had a good talk w Jeff Howe. He's a cool dude. 

Koko's Bavarian and Fat Tire Amber. That's how we roll. 

UT.jpg

Kokos' pretzels were IMPRESSIVE. Much better than the frozen bullshit they used to parade out at Erwin. How's the new recipe for Fat Tire tasting?

Energy seemed kinda lacking at Moody last night, something felt off, but maybe because we were pretty much in total control all night, even when the pokes got it down to 3

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We will see what happens over the next 10 days after we finally play Baylor and Kansas, but aside from the 116 point outburst by Kansas State, our defensive numbers aren't too much higher than what we were last year. We were 19th in defensive efficiency last year and are currently 24th this year. We gave up more than 75 points 6 times last year in conference play and have only done it twice through 8 games so far this year. 

Yeah, yeah, the eye test isn't as sexy as when Beard would have the glare of death after Northern Arizona or UTRGV would hit the 50 point mark. Teams in the Big 12 score points. Louisiana is 47th in the country in offensive efficiency and averages 80 points a game and we gave up 72 because of a bunch of garbage points in the last 3 minutes with Cole Bott in. Who the hell cares.

This isn't the best defensive team we are ever going to have but they still defend at a relatively high level compared to other teams in the country. Enjoy the damn ride. This is veteran team who has proven they can get it done on both ends of the floor, battle through adversity and have really damn good in close games and executing down the stretch.

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16 minutes ago, Bottlecap said:

Kokos' pretzels were IMPRESSIVE. Much better than the frozen bullshit they used to parade out at Erwin. How's the new recipe for Fat Tire tasting?

Energy seemed kinda lacking at Moody last night, something felt off, but maybe because we were pretty much in total control all night, even when the pokes got it down to 3

Didn't know Fat Tire has a new recipe. That's awesome and it was really good. If you haven't been to Koko's Bavarian restaurant/beer hall in East Austin, I highly recommend it. It's right next to another great beer venue, Central Machine Works.  

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I think with this team it’s figuring out when to run and not run. 

Last night I really didn’t understand Oklahoma States strategy. They normally play really slow but this was the game they wanted to pick up tempo? Yeah, they scored but it was a losing strategy playing that way. Which is why it was never really competitive.

I don’t know what the balance is but I don’t mind giving up more points if you know a team can’t run with you. The key is figuring out which games you need to make it more of a half court slugfest. 

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47 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

That's fair but the biggest issue I see is that Hunter went from looking All-Conference to playing like trash

Mo, I have no inside info on Hunter, but his problem may be more mental than physical. This is pure speculation but maybe Hunter didn't have much of a father figure growing up and he transferred to Texas because he saw Coach Beard as that father figure. That is far more common than you would think. Then one day, Coach is gone, and Hunter is devastated and sometimes it takes time to recover mentally. Our t shirt buddy doesn't understand that the mental side of the game is just as important as the physical side of the game. Again, speculation on my part.

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17 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Last night I really didn’t understand Oklahoma States strategy. They normally play really slow but this was the game they wanted to pick up tempo? Yeah, they scored but it was a losing strategy playing that way. Which is why it was never really competitive.

Well they got held to 46 points at home in G1. Maybe they figured they were damned if they did damned if they didn't. And they were right. 

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10 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Well they got held to 46 points at home in G1. Maybe they figured they were damned if they did damned if they didn't. And they were right. 

Yeah and the 1st game was much more competitive. They don’t have the scorers to run with Texas. 

Their best hope of beating Texas is to ugly it up in the half court. 

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8 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Cunningham the last 4 games: +6, -1, +6, +17. 

Tonight Cunningham played 25 minutes which was an increase from previous games but the bigs were in foul trouble. Think you have to keep giving him around 25 minutes until proven otherwise because he's better than Mitchell right now. 

 

 

When Brock is in, he’s all gas…..

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5 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

With the regression defensively since Beard left and the overall improvement offensively this season I do wonder if we are focused on the wrong assistant. 

Based on interactions on the sideline it looks to me like Donewald is running the show on offense. 

I thought that was the case regardless in the off-season?

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1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:

We will see what happens over the next 10 days after we finally play Baylor and Kansas, but aside from the 116 point outburst by Kansas State, our defensive numbers aren't too much higher than what we were last year. We were 19th in defensive efficiency last year and are currently 24th this year. We gave up more than 75 points 6 times last year in conference play and have only done it twice through 8 games so far this year. 

Yeah, yeah, the eye test isn't as sexy as when Beard would have the glare of death after Northern Arizona or UTRGV would hit the 50 point mark. Teams in the Big 12 score points. Louisiana is 47th in the country in offensive efficiency and averages 80 points a game and we gave up 72 because of a bunch of garbage points in the last 3 minutes with Cole Bott in. Who the hell cares.

This isn't the best defensive team we are ever going to have but they still defend at a relatively high level compared to other teams in the country. Enjoy the damn ride. This is veteran team who has proven they can get it done on both ends of the floor, battle through adversity and have really damn good in close games and executing down the stretch.

Well, despite OSU hitting for 75, Texas held them under their season averages in both FG% and 3P%. Texas plays a much better version of basketball with Terry and using his depth to run on teams. This isn't an elite athletic team at all (better than last year), so Texas needs to push pace to find the mismatches earlier in the shot clock. This team also doesn't have any natural rim protectors, Disu, Bishop, and Mitchell are better coming from the help side to disrupt shots.

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