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If only statcast had the technology to measure the launch angle and exit velocity of yankee balls that have been hit off of your chin.

Goo Punch
Goo Punch
Hank Chinaski
Hank Chinaski

Good fucking riddance. 

TheFlagship

TheFlagship 466

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https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

NL projected win totals are wild:

Cubs - 93

Dodgers/DBacks - 89

Phillies/Braves/Brewers/Cardinals/Rockies - 87

If this happened, we’d get a one game playoff between Phillies and Braves and Dodgers/Dbacks, and then somehow we’d have to sort out the four way tie between the loser of the NL East game, the Brewers,  Cardinals and Rockies for the right to play the loser of the Dodgers/Dbacks game. Could be some good chaos.

 

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55,867

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This is pretty cool:

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How are the Diamondbacks 200+ runs better than the Phillies on defense?

August 20, 2018 · by marksimonsis · in Defensive Runs Saved · Leave a comment

By MARK SIMON
All statistics through Saturday’s games

I received a tweet recently that asked if I could demonstrate the difference between the team with the most Defensive Runs Saved (the Diamondbacks with 120) and the team with the fewest (the Phillies with -102).

It seemed a reasonable question to wonder – can the difference between the two be more than 200 runs? We wouldn’t question the best and worst teams being that far apart in terms of their offense or their pitching. But for defense, we don’t have as good a feel for the value of certain statistics.

It’s important to note that when we give a team’s DRS total, that represents the sum of their players’ DRS. It’s not a value solely assigned to the team, but rather the accumulation of many values.

With that in mind, let’s go through a few notable positions around the diamond.

Catcher: Diamondbacks 21 DRS, Phillies -9 DRS
Differential: 30 Runs
This is a substantial gap. It’s one of the biggest differentials we’ll see.

The Diamondbacks are unusual in that they have three catchers, each of whom has been outstanding by SIS’ defensive metrics.

Jeff Mathis leads all catchers with 12 Defensive Runs Saved. Alex Avila has 6. John Ryan Murphy has 3. Mathis rates near the top in our Strike Zone Runs Saved metric, and Murphy is right there with him. The three have combined for 13 Strike Zone Runs Saved in that stat.

Mathis also excels at blocking pitches, with five runs saved there. He ranks second in our pitch-blocking stat, successfully blocking 97 percent of pitches in the dirt.

Meanwhile Philadelphia’s primary catchers, prior to their acquisition of Wilson Ramos, Andrew Knapp (88 percent) and Jorge Alfaro (86 percent), ranked fourth-worst and worst respectively in that stat.

Mathis, Murphy and Avila have combined for 940 pitch blocks and 54 wild pitches and passed balls.

Knapp and Alfaro have combined for 490 and 74.

Similarly, the Arizona trio has recorded 109 more strikes than expected for their pitchers based on pitch location, batter handedness and count.

Alfaro rates well at this, but Knapp does not. Together, they’ve combined to cost their pitchers 15 strikes.

Also Alfaro’s success catching runners stealing is negated by Knapp’s struggles in that area. And Alfaro has significant issues with bunt defense to where it’s cost the Phillies four runs.

This is why they got Ramos.

Shortstop: Diamondbacks 18 DRS, Phillies -14 DRS
Differential: 32 Runs
The Diamondbacks have one of the game’s best shortstops in Nick Ahmed, whose 17 DRS top the leaderboard.

What makes Ahmed great is that he can go deep into the shortstop-third base hole to make plays that are difficult for other shortstops to make, either due to skill or positioning. The Diamondbacks have turned 74 percent of ground balls hit between second base and two-thirds of the way to third base into outs in an unshifted defense (mostly by Ahmed). Within that same area, the Phillies have converted 68 percent.

For the Diamondbacks, the differential is nearly 30 extra plays made. And that doesn’t factor in other things Ahmed does well, like catch line drives and pops and turn the double play. And it doesn’t factor shifts (which we’ll get to).

The Phillies have three shortstops who have cost the team four runs apiece: Scott Kingery, who rates well below average in the short-third hole, and J.P. Crawford and Pedro Florimon, who are both below average fielding balls hit up the middle. They’ve since turned the position over to Asdrubal Cabrera.

Shifts: Diamondbacks 29 DRS, Phillies -9 DRS
Differential: 38 Runs
Much has been made of the Phillies’ struggles on shifts, but less known is that the Diamondbacks get the most value from their shifting of any team in baseball. It’s this simple:

The Diamondbacks convert 80 percent of ground balls and short line drives into outs when in a shifted defense. The Phillies convert 70 percent. The difference is about 50 extra plays converted by the Diamondbacks to this point in the season, without even looking at whether those balls are singles or doubles.

Center Field: Diamondbacks 15 DRS, Phillies -9 DRS
Differential: 24 Runs

The Diamondbacks’ 15 runs come from Jarrod Dyson, Chris Owings and A.J. Pollock and in each case, the key element is catching fly balls hit to the deepest part of the park (Arizona’s total would be higher if not for Pollock’s -5 DRS on throws). The key point to remember is that when those catches are made, the balls they’re snagging would be doubles and triples.

Meanwhile Odubel Herrera (-10 DRS) is having issues on a ball he’s never had before: the one hit to shallow center field. Per Statcast, Herrera is playing at an average depth of 323 feet this season, seven feet deeper than he typically plays. He’s trading off balls falling in front of him for making catches on deep balls.

But it’s been a net negative. He’s cost the team 11 runs on range and positioning. The Diamondbacks play their center fielder deeper than any other team’s center fielder at Chase Field. And for them, it works.

Consider this: Let’s take the area 45 feet to left center and 45 feet to right center from straightaway center field.

On balls hit at least 360 feet to that area, the Diamondbacks convert 67 percent of balls that stayed in the park into outs. The Phillies convert 60 percent. Without factoring exact hit probabilities, that’s about a dozen more doubles and triples spared, just on balls hit to those spots.

Pitchers: Diamondbacks 11 DRS, Phillies -15 DRS
Differential: 26 Runs
A gap of 26 runs is sizable and is explained thusly: Zack Greinke, Patrick Corbin and Zack Godley, who have combined to save 13 runs, are all adept athletes, who put themselves in position to succeed with their follow-throughs and make more plays off the mound than most.

The Phillies have only one pitcher above average in that regard: Enyel De Los Santos. He’s pitched 12 innings.

That accounts for more than two-thirds of the differential. The rest comes from pitcher responsibility for stolen bases (the Phillies have allowed 40 more, but have only six more caught stealings).

Those positions (and shifting) account for 150 runs of the differential. The other spots on the diamond are more of the same. In short, the Diamondbacks are really good. The Phillies have performed poorly. And the difference between them is pretty large.

Defensive Runs Saved
Position Dbacks Phillies
Pitcher  11  -15
Catcher  21  -9
1st Base  5  0
2nd Base  4  -6
Shortstop  18  -14
3rd Base  0  -12
Shifts  29  -9
Left Field  4  -20
Center Field  15  -9  
Right Field   13  -8  
     

https://baseballinfosolutions.wordpress.com/2018/08/20/how-are-the-diamondbacks-200-runs-better-than-the-phillies-on-defense/

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Helobious

Helobious 9,820

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It’s astounding that anyone puts any stock at all into defensive metrics. I think Kyle Schwarber was rated as the greatest defensive player in all of baseball for a huge chunk of the season in terms of DRS. He’s still rated top 10 I believe. Same story in UZR. It’s all a complete joke.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55,867

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44 minutes ago, Helobious said:

It’s astounding that anyone puts any stock at all into defensive metrics. I think Kyle Schwarber was rated as the greatest defensive player in all of baseball for a huge chunk of the season in terms of DRS. He’s still rated top 10 I believe. Same story in UZR. It’s all a complete joke.

First, Schwarber is currently tied for 58-63 in DRS. 

Second, defensive stats need a lot more games than batting stats to be meaningful because there are fewer plays made, and more importantly, fewer "dividing plays" that a good player would make and a bad player wouldn't.  Looking at the first half of the season for DRS for individual players is like deciding who's good at hitting by looking at their stats at the end of April. 

But once you have enough observations, they work, which every front office in the league understands. 

 

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3,607

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1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

First, Schwarber is currently tied for 58-63 in DRS. 

Second, defensive stats need a lot more games than batting stats to be meaningful because there are fewer plays made, and more importantly, fewer "dividing plays" that a good player would make and a bad player wouldn't.  Looking at the first half of the season for DRS for individual players is like deciding who's good at hitting by looking at their stats at the end of April. 

But once you have enough observations, they work, which every front office in the league understands. 

 

It should be noted that Schwarber is tied for the MLB lead in OF assists. I realize Helo doesn't watch the Cubs or the NL for that matter, but the notion that Schwarber is one of the worst defensive OF in baseball is just wrong. He won't win a Gold Glove, but he is not the detriment that people thought he was going to be either. 

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Helobious

Helobious 9,820

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3 hours ago, shnsajax said:

It should be noted that Schwarber is tied for the MLB lead in OF assists. I realize Helo doesn't watch the Cubs or the NL for that matter, but the notion that Schwarber is one of the worst defensive OF in baseball is just wrong. He won't win a Gold Glove, but he is not the detriment that people thought he was going to be either. 

I've seen Rookie of the Year at least twice, but nice try.

Schwarber leads in outfield assists for the same reason that mediocre cornerbacks tend to have more picks than great ones. No ones scared to run on him, they know he's not Aaron Hicks or JBJ out there so he's going to get a lot of chances to throw people out. That's a microcosm of why I hate defensive metrics. Defense in baseball is simply too dynamic with too many variables to reasonably quantify. Differences in playing surfaces, outfield dimensions, time of day the game's played, weather/wind conditions, indoor vs outdoor all adds up to making it a foolish attempt to try and compare plays made by defenders, especially outfielders. 

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spystud13

spystud13 2,371

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^ Ol’ Adrian likes your boy Chapman too. 

Quote

Consider Adrian Beltre among a growing contingent of Matt Chapman fans.

The Rangers third baseman and future Hall of Famer offered extensive praise of Chapman, the A's star defender at the hot corner, before their teams squared off in Monday's series opener at the Coliseum.

"From what I've seen and heard, the guy might be the best third baseman in the game," Beltre said. "Just based on how he plays the game, how quick he learned how to play the position and how comfortable he feels in the big leagues already."

Beltre, a five-time Gold Glove Award winner, is nearing the conclusion of his 21st Major League season. He's been around some of the game's best during that span, acting the part himself during much of it.

"For me over the last 10 years, between [Manny] Machado and [Nolan] Arenado would be the best third basemen," Beltre said. "I can't say [Chapman] is better than Machado right now, but he's making a case because he's playing third base like I haven't seen in a long time, so it's good to see a young kid like that. And he seems like a really good kid, so that makes me more of a fan of him.

"We play them 19 games a year, but what I see is he's comfortable. He makes every play: in, back, fly balls in left field. Diving to the left, diving to the right. He has a really good, strong arm, and it seems like he's really fluid. I view it as a reaction position, and he plays it really well."

Chapman, 25, has drawn much deserved attention for his play this year, though he never seeks it.

"I like the fact that he's good at it but he doesn't act like he's good at it," Beltre said. "I like that. He's not a cocky guy. It's been his first full year, but what I've seen from him I really like, and I'm a big fan."

 

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4,275

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10 hours ago, Helobious said:

I've seen Rookie of the Year at least twice, but nice try.

Schwarber leads in outfield assists for the same reason that mediocre cornerbacks tend to have more picks than great ones. No ones scared to run on him, they know he's not Aaron Hicks or JBJ out there so he's going to get a lot of chances to throw people out. That's a microcosm of why I hate defensive metrics. Defense in baseball is simply too dynamic with too many variables to reasonably quantify. Differences in playing surfaces, outfield dimensions, time of day the game's played, weather/wind conditions, indoor vs outdoor all adds up to making it a foolish attempt to try and compare plays made by defenders, especially outfielders. 

wat.

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4,275

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that defensive back analogy is literally the worst, most nonsensical analogy i've ever heard. and even after deciphering the point you thought you were making you're still wrong. schwarber has a strong and very accurate arm. he was a catcher in the minors.

 

also, jesus, i couldn't even type all of that out before the new edit feature cut me off.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55,867

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8 minutes ago, Scraps said:

I don't see how the Rockies can't be in play for one of the Nationals guys that got claimed. 

I don't either, except for the fact that they're still the Rockies with the same ownership who keeps hiring the same type of management, and they probably still think their hitting is good because they're 4th in the NL in runs scored. 

Also because they gave Ian Desmond $70M to play 1B just last season. 

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