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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6356

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, APMP said:

I get the Hosmer discussion re: free agency broken, but JD Martinez also had to settle for a below market deal (at least relative to expectations based on previous seasons) when only one team really pursued him, and he's about to damn near win AL MVP.

But they're still going to be paying him $20MM+ annually when he's 33-34 and he's unlikely to be worth the money at that point. IIRC, Martinez wanted more years - that was the sticking point. Nobody wanted to pay him for his age 35 season and beyond. The Pujols and Cabrera deals that pay exorbitant dollars well past a guy's prime are albatrosses for those organizations.

It sucks for players not named Harper, Machado, Trout, Correa - guys who hit free agency in their mid-20s - but teams aren't willing to throw away money anymore, and it is hard to blame them. 

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If only statcast had the technology to measure the launch angle and exit velocity of yankee balls that have been hit off of your chin.

Goo Punch
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Hank Chinaski
Hank Chinaski

Good fucking riddance. 

Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55863

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

But they're still going to be paying him $20MM+ annually when he's 33-34 and he's unlikely to be worth the money at that point.

Yeah, you're only looking at the back end of the contract, and not the front end.  He has been worth more than double that this year. 

I'm sure Martinez wouldn't have minded if they had paid him $40M this season (still a bargain) and league minimum during his age-34 year.

Edited by Beau Vine
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, APMP said:

I get the Hosmer discussion re: free agency broken, but JD Martinez also had to settle for a below market deal (at least relative to expectations based on previous seasons) when only one team really pursued him, and he's about to damn near win AL MVP.

The thing that kills Martinez is that he can't provide much to any defensive value so he's completely reliant on his bat.  Steamer600 has him projected at only a 3.5 WAR in spite of his .397 projected wOBA.  Obviously he beat his projections this season but if he has a down year and only hits in the .380-.390 wOBA range he suddenly becomes a near league average player in terms of value.  

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
Quote

They have lived up to the hype. After an impressive 2017 campaign, the Yankees have followed up with perhaps the best team relief season of all time. According to FanGraphs, the 2018 Yankees bullpen has posted a WAR of 9.8, surpassing the 2003 Dodgers for the highest total ever. That production has been marked by dominance. Collectively, the bullpen has struck out 11.35 batters per nine innings. They will be the first relief corps in the history of baseball to finish with a mark above 11.

 

lmao.  The Yanks pen has apparently had "perhaps the best relief season of all time" and yet their pen has a worse ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xwOBA against this season than Houston's pen.  Hope they get fucking rocked by Oakland.  

https://theathletic.com/552336/2018/09/27/the-yankees-have-paired-the-best-bullpen-ever-with-cutting-edge-tools-to-optimize-its-usage-will-it-be-enough-in-the-playoffs/

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55863

Posted
Posted

As usual, Keith Law overthinks it, overemphasizes WAR when asking "Who *WAS* the most valuable player?":

Quote

I didn't get a ballot this year -- shocker -- which means I get to comment on all six of the player races (I don't care about Manager of the Year, lacking any rational means to evaluate them, which puts me in the uncomfortable position of stating an opinion with scant or nonexistent evidence to back me up).

Here's how I would vote if I had a ballot for each of the six major awards.

 

AL MVP

1. Mike Trout

2. Mookie Betts

3. Jose Ramirez

4. Alex Bregman

5. Francisco Lindor

6. Matt Chapman

7. Justin Verlander

8. Andrelton Simmons

9. J.D. Martinez

10. Jose Altuve

Yes, Trout over Mookie, even though Betts is deserving and it would certainly be satisfying to see one of the game's best players and best stories walk home with the hardware.

Trout and Betts have identical slugging percentages as I write this, while Trout has a higher OBP by 26 points, and he plays in a tougher home park than Betts does, especially for power. They've been equally valuable on the bases. Betts' higher WAR values come down to their defensive metrics and the positional adjustment required for a center fielder (Trout) and for a right fielder (Betts), which is about five runs.

My take, however, is that if you put Trout in right, he'd be at least Betts' equal on defense -- and Betts might be the same in center if given the time to learn it -- but that if you could magically equalize the two players' defensive profiles, they'd be very close -- enough to tilt this to Trout. The Angels superstar is actually having his best offensive season, with an OPS+ of 199 (top 50 all time, going back to 1901), and a wRC+ of 193 (second-best since Barry Bonds stopped shattering records in 2004, behind only Bryce Harper in 2015).

Ramirez is clearly third; the next three guys could go in any order, and the last three could as well, with Simmons still the best defensive player in the game and already one of the 100 most valuable defenders in MLB history at age 29.

NL MVP

1. Jacob deGrom

2. Max Scherzer

3. Christian Yelich

4. Javier Baez

5. Anthony Rendon

6. Patrick Corbin

7. Lorenzo Cain

8. J.T. Realmuto

9. Aaron Nola

10. Matt Carpenter

I expect Yelich to win the award, given the longstanding historical bias against pitchers in MVP voting -- to say nothing of writers playing games with their ballots to support hometown players -- but deGrom has deStroyed [sic] the field this year any way you measure his value.

I have Baez higher than his stats might indicate, because he's been asked to play three positions on a regular basis and been average at all of them, giving the team tremendous flexibility and some hard-to-quantify value from giving them more use from a single roster spot. He could be anywhere from fourth to seventh on this ballot. Also, Patrick Corbin is good and about to get paid this offseason.

AL Cy Young

1. Justin Verlander

2. Chris Sale

3. Gerrit Cole

4. Trevor Bauer

5. Blake Snell

I admit it would be fun to see Snell win -- after all, I picked him as one of my breakout candidates this spring -- but Verlander has the better strikeout rate, the better walk rate, and a much higher IP total. Sale is the curious case here -- he won't even qualify for the ERA title due to a shoulder injury, but on a per-batter basis, he's been the best starter in the AL, good enough that he's delivered more value to the Red Sox than other pitchers who've thrown 20+ more innings have delivered to their teams.

NL Cy Young

Jacob deGrom pulled away from a loaded group to establish himself as the clear NL Cy Young this season. AP Photo/Julie Jacobson

1. Jacob deGrom

2. Max Scherzer

3. Patrick Corbin

4. Aaron Nola

5. Kyle Freeland

This was close for a little while, but deGrom has pulled away. He leads the majors in ERA and FIP, and is one of just eight pitchers to reach 200 innings this year. He and Snell could become the fifth and sixth pitchers since 2009 to post ERA+ figures of 200 or higher. Freeland's advanced stats don't put him top five, but I gave him a bump for the difficulty of pitching in Coors Field; his ERA right now of 2.84 would be the lowest full-season ERA in franchise history, bested only by Marvin Freeman in strike-shortened 1994.

AL ROY

1. Shohei Ohtani

2. Miguel Andujar

3. Gleyber Torres

This shouldn't even be a debate -- Ohtani produced 3.6 fWAR and 3.8 rWAR this year when you combine his bat and his pitching, and did so in less than a full season of playing time in either role (although 300 AB and 50 innings is, taken together, something like a full workload). He should win this with a unanimous vote; no one else is close, not even Torres, whom I once ranked as the No. 2 prospect in baseball and still believe is a future star, and whose numbers took a small hit because he spent the year playing a new position.

I expect Tampa's Joey Wendle to get some votes, but he's 28 years old and essentially positionless. The production we saw from younger players like Andujar and Torres is much more impressive given the context of their ages.

NL ROY

A huge August at the plate helped Ronald Acuña Jr. emerge ahead of Juan Soto in a race featuring two rookies who could become MVP candidates in the near future. Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

1. Ronald Acuña Jr.

2. Juan Soto

3. Harrison Bader

The Acuña/Soto race was neck and neck for a while, but Acuña had a monstrous August -- by Fangraphs' Batting Runs, he was the most productive NL outfielder that month -- and pulled away. The real debate here might be Soto vs. Bader, which comes down to whether you think Soto is really a bad defensive outfielder (I'm not convinced) and Bader a plus one (probably true). You could flip those two and I wouldn't mind.

Walker Buehler, Brian Anderson, and Jack Flaherty all had good cases -- but I'm not going to support the reported proposal to expand the Rookie of the Year ballots. We've had plenty of years where finding three decent rookies to fill out the existing spots was difficult, and adding spots will just increase the noise in the results.

 

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Helobious

Helobious 9818

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

 

lmao.  The Yanks pen has apparently had "perhaps the best relief season of all time" and yet their pen has a worse ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xwOBA against this season than Houston's pen.  Hope they get fucking rocked by Oakland.  

https://theathletic.com/552336/2018/09/27/the-yankees-have-paired-the-best-bullpen-ever-with-cutting-edge-tools-to-optimize-its-usage-will-it-be-enough-in-the-playoffs/

Honest question... do you even know what any of those stats mean or how they’re calculated? 

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spystud13

spystud13 2371

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Posted

Law’s main problem is he never knows who has played what positions. Mookie has 1500 innings in CF, I highly doubt he has to “learn” it. This is the same Mookie who he said in his season preview a year or two ago could be a candidate to move back to the IF. 

In one of his trade deadline write-ups he mentioned so-&-so was below average at one of the OF spots when he’d played like 3 innings there in last two seasons. He gets so caught up in words that he forgets the 30 seconds to actually check his facts. And he will get panty-hurt if you correct him. 

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Trout and Betts have identical slugging percentages as I write this, while Trout has a higher OBP by 26 points, and he plays in a tougher home park than Betts does, especially for power. They've been equally valuable on the bases. Betts' higher WAR values come down to their defensive metrics and the positional adjustment required for a center fielder (Trout) and for a right fielder (Betts), which is about five runs.

My take, however, is that if you put Trout in right, he'd be at least Betts' equal on defense -- and Betts might be the same in center if given the time to learn it -- but that if you could magically equalize the two players' defensive profiles, they'd be very close -- enough to tilt this to Trout. The Angels superstar is actually having his best offensive season, with an OPS+ of 199 (top 50 all time, going back to 1901), and a wRC+ of 193 (second-best since Barry Bonds stopped shattering records in 2004, behind only Bryce Harper in 2015).

Why is he saying the positional adjustment is one of the reasons Betts has a higher WAR than Trout?  Trout is the one who benefits vis-a-vis Betts with respect to the positional adjustment.  Am I missing something here??

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6356

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Yeah, you're only looking at the back end of the contract, and not the front end.  He has been worth more than double that this year. 

I'm sure Martinez wouldn't have minded if they had paid him $40M this season (still a bargain) and league minimum during his age-34 year.

I get that, but this was in response to the contention that JDM's deal was below market value. My argument was that it wasn't. Yes, he produced surplus value this year, but he's likely to produce a deficit later in the deal. 

Certainly he could maintain production at a level that eventually indicates that he was underpaid, maybe even considerably so (like Altuve's before he signed that extension last winter)...but teams don't know what future performance will look like, and they regress a potential player's valuation based on performance probabilities over several future years. I'm just saying that most teams probably have very similar ideas of what these valuation forecasts look like, and that's why his deal was not really "below market value." It could end up being a bargain, but that doesn't really mean it was below market value when he signed it. 

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texifornia

texifornia 59013

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Posted
5 hours ago, WBT said:

The Yankees magic number to host the WC game is down to 1

Went ahead and bought tickets to watch the game at Yankee Stadium. Last playoff game I saw in-person was the ill-fated 2003 Game 5 against the Red Sox when I was 13. Can't wait to rep the green-and-gold in the Bronx - should be a special night.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55863

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I get that, but this was in response to the contention that JDM's deal was below market value. My argument was that it wasn't. Yes, he produced surplus value this year, but he's likely to produce a deficit later in the deal. 

 

1.  His surplus this season is something like $26M.  That already completely pays for the last year, and then some. 

2.  His deal was below market, because there literally wasn't a market for him, for some inexplicable reason.  There was only one team offering him a contract more than two years long.  

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9817

Posted
Posted

All I know is that the player’s union looks pretty fucking stupid for filing that grievance before the season saying the A’s, Rays, Pirates and Marlins weren’t spending enough.

ok, the Marlins sure but everyone already knows they’re a train wreck.
The other three with three games to go?
96-63
88-71
80-78

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TheFlagship

TheFlagship 466

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

with only 3 games to go there is a solid chance that both the nl central and nl west could end in ties.  anyone else seriously rooting for this?

Me. Would love for the cardinals to tie for the 2nd wild card too. In that case I think there would be the NL West championship on Monday, loser vs the Cards on Tuesday and then the actual Wild Card game Wednesday.

Ideal scenario for chaos:

Cards win 2 of 3 vs Cubs

Brewers win 2 of 3 vs Tigers

Dodgers only win 1 of 3 vs Giants

Rockies get swept by Nationals

 

Edited by TheFlagship
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Helobious said:

If the Yankees can hit 5 home runs in Boston this weekend, they'll break the single-season record for homers. They're at 260 and the 1997 Mariners are at 264. 

conversely, if the astros allow fewer than 27 runs vs baltimore this weekend, they'll allow the fewest in an american league season since the dh.  that series will also determine whether they become one of the only teams to post a .700+ clip on the road (i think there's been 2).

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Helobious

Helobious 9818

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Yankees tied the single season HR record but still aren't hitting better this season than the Astros.  Fuck the Yankees.  

Hitting a home run is the very best thing a hitter can do in an at bat. Therefore, the team that hits the most home runs in a season is the best team at hitting. Change my mind.

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8219

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Helobious said:

Hitting a home run is the very best thing a hitter can do in an at bat. Therefore, the team that hits the most home runs in a season is the best team at hitting. Change my mind.

So you'd put three Rob Deers in the outfield, plus another at DH? Bold strategy, Cotton. 

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 11129

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Helobious said:

Hitting a home run is the very best thing a hitter can do in an at bat. Therefore, the team that hits the most home runs in a season is the best team at hitting. Change my mind.

HRs are rally killers.   They clear the base paths of runners and allow the pitcher to reset and become comfortable again.  Big rallies are made up of consecutive singles and doubles.  The best thing a hitter can do at the plate is keep the conveyor belt moving with a single/BB/HBP.  Change my mind.  

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Brew

Brew 3049

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Helobious said:

Hitting a home run is the very best thing a hitter can do in an at bat. Therefore, the team that hits the most home runs in a season is the best team at hitting. Change my mind.

Chris Davis would like your theory to catch on.

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Helobious

Helobious 9818

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

HRs are rally killers.   They clear the base paths of runners and allow the pitcher to reset and become comfortable again.  Big rallies are made up of consecutive singles and doubles.  The best thing a hitter can do at the plate is keep the conveyor belt moving with a single/BB/HBP.  Change my mind.  

Sabernerds strongly disagree with that absurd outdated thinking. Everything they tell hitters now is geared to getting them to put the ball over the fence more. Where people got the idea that it’s easier to score runs by trying to string together a bunch of hits/walks vs pumping just one bad pitch out for a HR is beyond me.

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Sabernerds strongly disagree with that absurd outdated thinking. Everything they tell hitters now is geared to getting them to put the ball over the fence more. Where people got the idea that it’s easier to score runs by trying to string together a bunch of hits/walks vs pumping just one bad pitch out for a HR is beyond me.

his stupid take doesn't make your stupid take any less stupid.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

Posted
Posted

helo - let me be nice and put it simply, and try to answer your exact question using your line of thinking - forgetting "best team" or "most wins" and just focusing on "best at hitting" (your words)...

to quote jonah hill in moneyball, "you shouldn't be trying to buy players, you should be trying to buy wins.  and to buy wins, you have to buy runs."  so i would say while a homer is great, and produces both a run and an rbi for the hitter, overall production of runs is what makes a team "best at hitting."  

therefore, the boston red sox are the "best at hitting" in 2018, because they've scored the most runs. (when hearing "hitting" most will look at batting average, or maybe ops, not homers, but i'm going broad offense for the purpose of this post).

the most runs scored in a season is by the 1931 yankees, and while it's difficult to compare across eras, i'm sure that stat can help you find some of the most prodigious offensive teams of all time, regardless of strength of league, opponents, whatever.

since then, there have been a ton of different offensive stats that help quantify and compare offensive players and teams.  stats that weigh situations, ballparks, conditions, etc.  you can start investigating woba, ops+, wrc, and some other fun metrics to see what's what and better your understanding of offensive relevance.

so while the 2018 yankees can probably claim to be the "best power hitting team ever" (which i'm sure could be argued against successfully by many), the "best at hitting" is not really accurate.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

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Posted
13 minutes ago, spystud13 said:

I cannot honestly believe so many of you are biting. He’s doing his Helo bit, except he actually fell for Guadaloopy. Most of you have been around here long enough to figure this out. 

are you serious?  his helo bit is believing the garbage he's posting.  it's actually not really a bit.

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