2018 MLB Thread

[spystud13 2371]

Cycle for Blackmon, first ever in game 162. 

[spystud13 2371]

28 minutes ago, spystud13 said:

Oppo double in likely Mauer’s last AB for the home crowd, pretty cool. 

And he caught the last inning, that’s really fucking cool. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

Brewers telecast is advertising the link to the Cubs website to buy tickets to the WC game.  They’re lining up an Amtrak as well. 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

39 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Almost every game was played at virtually the same time today so as to avoid scoreboard watching affecting strategy 

Yeah but if one game scores lots of runs and another is a pitcher’s dual,  you can have some timing disparity. Not like soccer where there’s a running clock to keep things somewhat the same. 

[Player 4610]

Oppo double in likely Mauer’s last AB for the home crowd, pretty cool. 

And he caught the last inning, that’s really fucking cool. 

[WBT 20972]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Almost wonder if some of these games were closer and you knew your division rival already won, do you risk tanking to avoid the extra game?

Why would you give up on having 2 chances to win a game to make the real playoffs?

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

6 minutes ago, WBT said:

Why would you give up on having 2 chances to win a game to make the real playoffs?

You’re guaranteed to have to play one extra game. Tank today and you can save pitchers from a possible second game.   Glad to see it didn’t come to that, but may have been interesting if one team has a 10 run lead and another is tied going into the ninth. 

[Goo Punch 4275]

no major league manager would ever do that. how could you face your team, your fans, and the national media trying to justify tanking in game 162?

[TexasHooch 5196]

1 hour ago, spystud13 said:

And he caught the last inning, that’s really fucking cool. 

[Post Oak 20564]

Today is probably the last game the great Adrian Beltre will play.  Long live Adrian Beltre

 

[Beau Vine 55863]

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

The mighty Mets and Marlins combined to score 2 runs in the last 22 innings of their seasons. Well actually the Mets scored both runs so the mighty Jeters didn’t do fuck all 

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

33 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

no major league manager would ever do that. how could you face your team, your fans, and the national media trying to justify tanking in game 162?

Yep, big risk but if and it’s a big if, you get a lights out performance from the starter in the WC game and have the rest of your staff fully rested for the Division Series the fans and media would get over it. 

[spystud13 2371]

8 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Ok Khris, we get it.
You’re a .247 hitter.
Needs a 1 for 4 day (or just not play) for his fourth straight .247 season.

And done. 

[Guadaloopy 11129]

Since the Braves lost and the Rox/Dodgers won, no NL team knows for sure if/where they will play on Thursday.  #NLchaos

[DanRydell 799]

You’re guaranteed to have to play one extra game. Tank today and you can save pitchers from a possible second game.   Glad to see it didn’t come to that, but may have been interesting if one team has a 10 run lead and another is tied going into the ninth. 

This is the stupidest idea I’ve ever read.

Needing to win one game out of two is so exponentially better a position to be in than needing to win one game out of one.

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

33 minutes ago, DanRydell said:

 

This is the stupidest idea I’ve ever read.

Needing to win one game out of two is so exponentially better a position to be in than needing to win one game out of one.

For example, Milwaukee is a combined 9-5 against Colorado and Los Angeles, but they are 7-12 against Chicago.  Why burn nine innings of pitching in a game against a team you have a 0.368 winning % against instead of playing one game against a team you have either a 0.714 or 0.571 winning percentage against... considering whoever you play from those teams has burned up nine inning of pitchers and you haven't - and Milwaukee would have home field in the WC game?

 

 

Edited October 1, 2018 by Fudge Nuggets

[henrygandorf 29225]

6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

For example, Milwaukee is a combined 9-5 against Colorado and Los Angeles, but they are 7-12 against Chicago.  Why burn nine innings of pitching in a game against a team you have a 0.368 winning % against instead of playing one game against a team you have either a 0.714 or 0.571 winning percentage against... considering whoever you play from those teams has burned up nine inning of pitchers and you haven't - and Milwaukee would have home field in the WC game?

 

 

ok, i really want to address this, but i've been burned before.  little help?

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

ok, i really want to address this, but i've been burned before.  little help?

Don't worry, it's fine because I expect tons of push back since it is completely against the grain.  But so is a lot of shit that has made some teams into contenders that never would have been before.

[Goo Punch 4275]

yeah but those things make sense. 

[DanRydell 799]

For example, Milwaukee is a combined 9-5 against Colorado and Los Angeles, but they are 7-12 against Chicago.  Why burn nine innings of pitching in a game against a team you have a 0.368 winning % against instead of playing one game against a team you have either a 0.714 or 0.571 winning percentage against... considering whoever you play from those teams has burned up nine inning of pitchers and you haven't - and Milwaukee would have home field in the WC game?
 
 

What would you say are the following:

1. Percent chance Brewers beat Cubs tomorrow

2. If they lose to the Cubs, percent chance Brewers win wild card game

3. Percent chance Brewers would have had to win wild card game if they wouldn’t have had to play tomorrow

[Goo Punch 4275]

The Brewers probably have more momentum and mojo than any team in baseball, and you're suggesting that they lose on purpose as they head into the postseason. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

10 minutes ago, DanRydell said:

 

What would you say are the following:

1. Percent chance Brewers beat Cubs tomorrow

2. If they lose to the Cubs, percent chance Brewers win wild card game

3. Percent chance Brewers would have had to win wild card game if they wouldn’t have had to play tomorrow

 

1.  0.368

2.  Less than 0.643 because they would burn pitchers in (1)

3. Greater than 0.643 because they would not play tomorrow yet the Dodgers and Rockies would (burning pitching) and having to travel.

#3 gives the best chance of winning.

QED.

Edited October 1, 2018 by Fudge Nuggets

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

1 minute ago, Goo Punch said:

The Brewers probably have more momentum and mojo than any team in baseball, and you're suggesting that they lose on purpose as they head into the postseason. 

Momentum and mojo means jack shit.  Ask last year's Cleveland Indians.

[Beau Vine 55863]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

ok, i really want to address this, but i've been burned before.  little help?

Given that he negged a random post of mine because I laughed at Derka's comment, I'd say he's serious.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

And to make it real interesting, what happens if in the game #163 it's tied going into extra innings?  Especially if you are one of the West teams... are you going to ask your ace reliever to get a six out save knowing you have to fly to Milwaukee the next day and do it again?  And if he can't get it done, well that game #163 meant exactly nothing.

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

3 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Given that he negged a random post of mine because I laughed at Derka's comment, I'd say he's serious.  

I negged your random post because you always suck up to Derka.  Nothing more, nothing less.

I know you can handle a neg better than that psycho.

Edited October 1, 2018 by Fudge Nuggets

[DanRydell 799]

1.  0.368
2.  Less than 0.643 because they would burn pitchers in (1)
3. Greater than 0.643 because they would not play tomorrow yet the Dodgers and Rockies would (burning pitching) and having to travel.
#3 gives the best chance of winning.
QED.

Those are insane numbers (for example, fangraphs gives the Brewers a 47% chance of winning tomorrow, they’d probably give them a 55% chance or so against the Rockies and a 45% chance or so against the Dodgers) but that’s fine, we’ll work with them.

Let’s say having to play tomorrow decreases the Brewers chance of winning by 10% and the Rockies/Dodgers having to play increases the Brewers chance of winning by 10%

So the Brewers would have a 36.8% chance of beating the Cubs, a 57.9% chance of winning the wild card game because they have to play tomorrow, and a 70.73% chance of winning the wild card game if they just forfeited tomorrow.

So under your strategy, the Brewers have a 70.73% chance of advancing to the NLDS.

By playing tomorrow and then Tuesday if they lose, the Brewers have a 73.4% chance of advancing to the NLDS.

[henrygandorf 29225]

i do think there's some interesting strategy/gamesmanship in pitching decisions with potentially 2 "one-game series" coming up this week.  do you throw your ace on monday, thinking that's your best chance of avoiding the wildcard game all together?  or do you hold back your ace, and pitch your sp2 or sp3, in hopes of winning anyway and lining up your rotation the way you want for nlds?

the other factor is that some of these teams don't really have a true ace.

it's also tough to set your rotations without knowing opponents, timing, home/road, and how many games you'll be playing this week.  since the loser of monday's game still has a double-elimination scenario, i can definitely see some business decisions being made in the bullpen if the other team jumps out big early on the starter tomorrow.

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

3 minutes ago, DanRydell said:

 

Those are insane numbers (for example, fangraphs gives the Brewers a 47% chance of winning tomorrow, they’d probably give them a 55% chance or so against the Rockies and a 45% chance or so against the Dodgers) but that’s fine, we’ll work with them.

Let’s say having to play tomorrow decreases the Brewers chance of winning by 10% and the Rockies/Dodgers having to play increases the Brewers chance of winning by 10%

So the Brewers would have a 36.8% chance of beating the Cubs, a 57.9% chance of winning the wild card game because they have to play tomorrow, and a 70.73% chance of winning the wild card game if they just forfeited tomorrow.

So under your strategy, the Brewers have a 70.73% chance of advancing to the NLDS.

By playing tomorrow and then Tuesday if they lose, the Brewers have a 73.4% chance of advancing to the NLDS.

You made up all your numbers except the Game #163.  And remember, I'm only using Milwaukee as an example.  The entire premise was based on if your division rival was in a blowout win situation and you were in a tight one, do you go all out to win today so you can play an extra game against them or do you save some arms for when it really matters?  In the end, does a potential division championship really matter if you get knocked out in the first round because you played at least one and maybe two extra games?

Do you honestly think playing one or two extra games doesn't put you at a disadvantage heading into a 5-game series?

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

i do think there's some interesting strategy/gamesmanship in pitching decisions with potentially 2 "one-game series" coming up this week.  do you throw your ace on monday, thinking that's your best chance of avoiding the wildcard game all together?  or do you hold back your ace, and pitch your sp2 or sp3, in hopes of winning anyway and lining up your rotation the way you want for nlds?

the other factor is that some of these teams don't really have a true ace.

it's also tough to set your rotations without knowing opponents, timing, home/road, and how many games you'll be playing this week.  since the loser of monday's game still has a double-elimination scenario, i can definitely see some business decisions being made in the bullpen if the other team jumps out big early on the starter tomorrow.

Exactly.

[Pato del Muerto 53482]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

ok, i really want to address this, but i've been burned before.  little help?

You play to win the game!

[henrygandorf 29225]

Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

Exactly.

but it's strategy between games 163+164.  not in game 162 saying "fuck it" and giving up the ability to win one game and avoid the wildcard game entirely.  baseball is too unpredictable, especially against good/great teams, to think one game's decisions magically give you a really good chance to win an entirely different game. 

there have been plenty of examples (like last year's yankees) where playing an extra game and burning severino (i think) seemed to cost them in g1/g2 of the alds, but ended up getting them within a game of the world series.

[DanRydell 799]

You made up all your numbers except the Game #163.  And remember, I'm only using Milwaukee as an example.  The entire premise was based on if your division rival was in a blowout win situation and you were in a tight one, do you go all out to win today so you can play an extra game against them or do you save some arms for when it really matters?  In the end, does a potential division championship really matter if you get knocked out in the first round because you played at least one and maybe two extra games?

Do you honestly think playing one or two extra games doesn't put you at a disadvantage heading into a 5-game series?

 

Of course I guessed. But it’s an educated guess. Individual MLB games are generally near toss-ups with teams rarely having greater than a 60% chance of winning (or a greater than 40% chance of losing).

 

I do think there is value to not playing an extra game, but I think that value is more than offset by the increased odds of actually making the NLDS by having two chances to win rather than letting it ride on one game.

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

The Yankees lost the first two games of the ALDS.  Yes, they came back to win it but going down 0-2 because you had to play the WC game is not a viable strategy.  Throw in another game on top of that and they probably don't get past Cleveland.

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

5 minutes ago, DanRydell said:

 

Of course I guessed. But it’s an educated guess. Individual MLB games are generally near toss-ups with teams rarely having greater than a 60% chance of winning (or a greater than 40% chance of losing).

 

I do think there is value to not playing an extra game, but I think that value is more than offset by the increased odds of actually making the NLDS by having two chances to win rather than letting it ride on one game.

And that's fair, and is the point of the entire debate.  Would you rather take two chances to win one game to get to the League Division Series not knowing what kind of wreck your pitching staff will be in if you have to play both games.  Or would you rather risk it on an all or nothing one game where you have a better chance of setting up your staff?  It all depends on what kind of pitching staff you have... are you deep with starters and long relievers, or do you have a short but freaking lights out bullpen? 

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

21 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

there have been plenty of examples (like last year's yankees) where playing an extra game and burning severino (i think) seemed to cost them in g1/g2 of the alds, but ended up getting them within a game of the world series.

I know there have been plenty of examples of guys going on short rest and coming up strong, but for the record Severino only went 0.1 IP and gave up 3 runs in the Wild Card game last year.  He didn't pitch until game 4 of the ALDS against Cleveland.

[spystud13 2371]

Jesus. 

 

 

[Goo Punch 4275]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Momentum and mojo means jack shit.  Ask last year's Cleveland Indians.

 

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Momentum and mojo means jack shit.  Ask last year's Cleveland Indians.

right. so as the manager of the hottest, most in sync team in baseball, your strategy would be to tell your team, "hey guys, let's lose this one on purpose." you'd be the laughing stock of the sports world. this is the worst idea ever. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

9 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

 

right. so as the manager of the hottest, most in sync team in baseball, your strategy would be to tell your team, "hey guys, let's lose this one on purpose." you'd be the laughing stock of the sports world. this is the worst idea ever. 

Good grief, I've said it several times that the Milwaukee deal was just an example that this year's amazing final day presented.  Cubs are up 10-0, you're tied with Detroit 5-5 or whatever heading into the 8th.  Would you burn your full bullpen today if it meant you would play a division playoff game tomorrow and if you lose that one you have to play the WC game any way?

Today's outcomes made it a moot point, but there may be a year that it won't be so clear and questions will be asked.  If a team burns through their entire staff winning games #162 and #163 and loses the WC or loses the LDS because they used up all their pitchers in the previous two games you don't think the manager will get heat?  I'm sure the NY media would be as understanding as you.

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

21 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

 

right. so as the manager of the hottest, most in sync team in baseball

By the way, how do you define hottest team in baseball?  Do you only look at the last 10 games, last month or what?

[Beau Vine 55863]

2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I negged your random post because you always suck up to Derka.  Nothing more, nothing less.

I know you can handle a neg better than that psycho.

Lol.

Yeah, I'm the psycho one...

[DaysOff 8208]

Jesus it's manager amateur hour in here.

[miguelito 11505]

Even Pete Rose wouldn't lose that game on purpose.

[Dewey 3330]

Even Pete Rose wouldn't lose that game on purpose.

Depends, are you talking Pete Rose the player or Pete Rose the manager?

Here's to the Brewers laying down, as a Cubs fan, I did not want to see this game happen.

[MC Fresh Breath 4075]

The few Mariners fans at the game did the right thing.

 

 

If this is his last out as a defensive player, well, couldn't be more perfect.

 

 

 

 

[TheFlagship 466]

Today is huge for the Dodgers and Rockies (obviously), pitching wise. If LA loses, they’re looking at starting Ross Stripling in the WCG tomorrow (6.41 ERA in the second half) while the Rockies would have to either start Freeland on 3 days rest or Antonio Senzatela.

Whoever wins gets to start their ace in Game 1 on Thursday (Kershaw/Freeland).

 

[TheFlagship 466]

 

[TheFlagship 466]

Full Brewers lineup:

 

[TheFlagship 466]

Cubs: