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Texas Basketball Recruiting Notes: A Clean Shave

texifornia

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14963

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37 minutes ago, ztejas said:

A top 5 ranked HS basketball player basing - for all intents and purposes - how he begins his professional basketball career on where some chick goes to college has to be one of the dumbest fucking things I've ever heard. I refuse to believe that. I've never heard of a one and done doing something like that. 

Not a girl 

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Js1
Js1

We are slowly moving into “Mark Adams/Rodney Terry was the real genius behind Beard” territory, just like Tech fans 2 years ago 

Mitch Cumsteen
Mitch Cumsteen

I think we found Bitter White Guy's sock.

texifornia
texifornia

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RollingPresidential

RollingPresidential 632

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1 hour ago, Chopper said:

So was the report about Holland making  excessive demands about his role and playing time just 995er bs?

Probably not? Basketball $9.95ers are not football $9.95ers, there's fewer of them and they're almost universally mouthpieces for AAU coaches or runners, so someone around Holland told Eric Bossi (who is a national guy afaik) that. Gerry confirmed it also. 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 18996

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1 hour ago, UTEE97 said:

Mitchell is liking a comment from a random fan saying he wouldn't want Mitchell back. That tells me he is not coming back.

Congratulations, sir! You have just hit one of our recruiting bingo squares: “Olds on Surly try to interpret social media activity when they have no fucking clue what they’re talking about.”

 

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HookEm

HookEm 2443

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Hadn't really paid THAT much attention to recruiting this year. Man, Kentucky has a haul: 

  • #2 Aaron Bradshaw - 7'0 C
  • #3 Justin Edwards - 6'7 SF
  • #6 Dajuan Wagner - 6'2 G
  • #14 Robert Dillingham - 6'1 G
  • #26 Reed Sheppard - 6'3 G

Surely with all that talent they can make the Final Four next year...

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 20927

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11 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Hadn't really paid THAT much attention to recruiting this year. Man, Kentucky has a haul: 

  • #2 Aaron Bradshaw - 7'0 C
  • #3 Justin Edwards - 6'7 SF
  • #6 Dajuan Wagner - 6'2 G
  • #14 Robert Dillingham - 6'1 G
  • #26 Reed Sheppard - 6'3 G

Surely with all that talent they can make the Final Four next year...

HS recruiting has never been the issue with Kentucky. Smart money is they will still find a way to bow out in the first weekend like usual.

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Js1

Js1 85095

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2 minutes ago, Mason Ramsey said:

Wouldn't be surprised. The rumor is $2M but I'm not sure if I believe it being that high.

I believe it. If the BMDs at KU think the window is closing for Self due to his health issues, they want to try to get him another ring before he rides off 

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RichUT

RichUT 1791

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Hadn't really paid THAT much attention to recruiting this year. Man, Kentucky has a haul: 
  • #2 Aaron Bradshaw - 7'0 C
  • #3 Justin Edwards - 6'7 SF
  • #6 Dajuan Wagner - 6'2 G
  • #14 Robert Dillingham - 6'1 G
  • #26 Reed Sheppard - 6'3 G
Surely with all that talent they can make the Final Four next year...

Right, because there have been so many posts on this thread that have stressed the correlation between recruiting 5 stars and going deep in the tournament. It’s clearly an opinion held by so many here.

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HookEm

HookEm 2443

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1 minute ago, RichUT said:


Right, because there have been so many posts on this thread that have stressed the correlation between recruiting 5 stars and going deep in the tournament. It’s clearly an opinion held by so many here.

emoji849.png

Maybe the sarcasm didn't come across in my post. Figured people would pick up on it since I was one of the main detractors of recruiting 5-stars.

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UTEE97

UTEE97 3429

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2 hours ago, HookEm said:

Maybe the sarcasm didn't come across in my post. Figured people would pick up on it since I was one of the main detractors of recruiting 5-stars.

Were you a detractor of 5 star recruits before we started losing them?

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HookEm

HookEm 2443

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23 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

Were you a detractor of 5 star recruits before we started losing them?

Kind of.  Historically, I have felt like Michigan State's approach of building their class is the best one.  The bulk of their players in the 25-75 range who end up staying for multiple years.  I have long wished Texas followed this strategy.  They have only had 3 top-10 players in the last 17 years (only one a one-and-done) and yet have still made 5 Final Fours over that time.

And all that was before NIL and easy transfers.  Now the 5-stars command money and playing time and it is almost a guarantee they only stay one year. If they don't go to the NBA they will be pissed off enough to transfer.  

Look, I get as excited as anyone when we land a top-5 recruit.  I was excited for Greg Brown and Dillon Mitchell and Ron Holland.  I realize we are probably the favorite for the #1 recruit in the nation next year. I will be doing back flips if he picks Texas.  I can't help myself. 

I just think there are better strategies to win.

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Helobious

Helobious 9480

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22 hours ago, UTEE97 said:

Mitchell is liking a comment from a random fan saying he wouldn't want Mitchell back. That tells me he is not coming back.

I’d bet anything that you’re over the age of 70. Liking someone’s comment that’s critical of you is a polite/sarcastic way of telling someone to fuck off

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UTEE97

UTEE97 3429

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9 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’d bet anything that you’re over the age of 70. Liking someone’s comment that’s critical of you is a polite/sarcastic way of telling someone to fuck off

How can someone be so wrong in every guess and still keep making predictions? You, sir, have a special gift. 

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UTEE97

UTEE97 3429

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15 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Kind of.  Historically, I have felt like Michigan State's approach of building their class is the best one.  The bulk of their players in the 25-75 range who end up staying for multiple years.  I have long wished Texas followed this strategy.  They have only had 3 top-10 players in the last 17 years (only one a one-and-done) and yet have still made 5 Final Fours over that time.

And all that was before NIL and easy transfers.  Now the 5-stars command money and playing time and it is almost a guarantee they only stay one year. If they don't go to the NBA they will be pissed off enough to transfer.  

Look, I get as excited as anyone when we land a top-5 recruit.  I was excited for Greg Brown and Dillon Mitchell and Ron Holland.  I realize we are probably the favorite for the #1 recruit in the nation next year. I will be doing back flips if he picks Texas.  I can't help myself. 

I just think there are better strategies to win.

Many of our past 5 stars worked out just fine and they continued on successful NBA careers and became good ambassadors for the program. It's only as of late we haven't had much success with 5 stars, which mostly had to do with how we utilized them under Shaka and this year. We had a senior-laden team this year where it was difficult for freshmen to contribute much. I am not saying we must have 5 stars and a lot of them but having them is not too bad.

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HookEm

HookEm 2443

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Again, I'm not saying it is bad.  5-stars are great and losing them sucks on a variety of levels.  As I said, the whole thing is an optimization exercise. You can definitely get good results with 5-stars. If your resources are limited though (e.g. NIL $$$), I think taking 3-4 "Player of the Year" mid-major transfers over a single high school 5-star is better.

For many years, I maintained a big database of the top-100 players of each class with where they went to college and keep it maintained each year with just the active players.  I assigned each player points based on their classification and rank.  The top player got 100 points, #2 player go 99 and so forth down to the #100 player getting 1 point.  I also bumped each player up 17 points for each year that they were in the system.  Thus, the #34 player as a junior was about equal to the #1 player as a freshman.  (I did a fair amount of modeling to come up with this number).  Then I summed the points for each team and compared it to end of year results.  Almost every national champion ended up being in the top-10 using this system.  

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Michael Knight

Michael Knight 12888

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On 5/1/2023 at 11:31 AM, RichUT said:


You are viewing this as binary when it’s not. You’re also falling victim to recency bias. For however long players are required to spend one year in college it will be worth taking a few swings at the elites.

The contact rate is going to be low, but you don’t fully close the door to either pipeline of talent.

It is recency bias, the qualify of american basketball prospects has declined precipitously in the last decade, whether its just a dry spell or aau is stunting growth or a combination of factors but name the last great american basketball prospect that actually had success in college

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HookEm

HookEm 2443

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17 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Then I summed the points for each team and compared it to end of year results.  Almost every national champion ended up being in the top-10 using this system.

I decided to run the numbers with this method for UConn.  Turns out they would have had 434 points.  That would historically be a top-10 team.

Texas this year had 266 points.  That would historically be a top-30 level team.

Texas in 2021 had 940 points.  That would historically be the #1 team in most years.  Damnit.

 

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texifornia

texifornia 56489

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29 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

It is recency bias, the qualify of american basketball prospects has declined precipitously in the last decade, whether its just a dry spell or aau is stunting growth or a combination of factors but name the last great american basketball prospect that actually had success in college

Paolo Banchero is from Seattle, had an excellent year for Duke, the team made the Final Four, and he got drafted #1.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62220

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2 hours ago, Helobious said:

I’d bet anything that you’re over the age of 70. Liking someone’s comment that’s critical of you is a polite/sarcastic way of telling someone to fuck off

Dude, his handle means UT Electrical Engineer Class of 1997. You were only off by more than 2 decades on your guess.

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horn4life

horn4life 3755

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So how do you grade Terry so far?  

The one thing we knew was that the portal has truly changed the landscape of college basketball, with the unprecedented flexibility amid the NIL ATM wars.  I said way, way back when that the most important player to recruit was Disu. I also didn't see us losing both incoming freshmen, but figured we would lose one.  Morris was certainly a loss as well, but there is that asterisk with his impending court date, that might have more influence that we know.  The shakeout is not complete with Mitchell and Hunter half gone, but with some optimism here as well, as reasonable evaluations, make the return of both a real possibility. 

But you have to like the pieces Terry has plugged in to fill the gaps.  Especially when he only had a couple weeks of officially being the head coach to bolster his words when recruiting.  Look at the exodus from Bill Self's Kansas, and you can see that every spring is going to from here on out be a bigger reshuffling of the deck than we have ever seen before.  But right now the team looks capable, and the fears that some had early on have subsided.

I don't know if we are at the back slapping and congratulations stage.  But if we can get one out of Mitchell or Hunter back, I would feel pretty close.  Get them both to return and I think we are certainly in the backslapping range.  But right now I am pretty darn happy with what Terry has cobbled together. 

This recruiting season sort of reminds me of the team last season when there was a shit ton of controversy and adversity and we came through kicking ass.  I also am very well aware it could have gone just as easily right down the rat hole. (which a lot of people underplay IMHO). This recruiting season seems very similar.  I think if Terry can come through doing well this season it will only boost his bonafides going forward. Which should make recruiting easier next season, if still wildly unpredictable.

Edited by horn4life
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RGBIII

RGBIII 22798

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19 minutes ago, horn4life said:

So how do you grade Terry so far?  

The one thing we knew was that the portal has truly changed the landscape of college basketball, with the unprecedented flexibility amid the NIL ATM wars.  I said way, way back when that the most important player to recruit was Disu. I also didn't see us losing both incoming freshmen, but figured we would lose one.  Morris was certainly a loss as well, but there is that asterisk with his impending court date, that might have more influence that we know.  The shakeout is not complete with Mitchell and Hunter half gone, but with some optimism here as well, as reasonable evaluations, make the return of both a real possibility. 

But you have to like the pieces Terry has plugged in to fill the gaps.  Especially when he only had a couple weeks of officially being the head coach to bolster his words when recruiting.  Look at the exodus from Bill Self's Kansas, and you can see that every spring is going to from here on out be a bigger reshuffling of the deck than we have ever seen before.  But right now the team looks capable, and the fears that some had early on have subsided.

I don't know if we are at the back slapping and congratulations stage.  But if we can get one out of Mitchell or Hunter back, I would feel pretty close.  Get them both to return and I think we are certainly in the backslapping range.  But right now I am pretty darn happy with what Terry has cobbled together. 

This recruiting season sort of reminds me of the team last season when there was a shit ton of controversy and adversity and we came through kicking ass.  I also am very well aware it could have gone just as easily right down the rat hole. (which a lot of people underplay IMHO). This recruiting season seems very similar.  I think if Terry can come through doing well this season it will only boost his bonafides going forward. Which should make recruiting easier next season, if still wildly unpredictable.

I grade him pretty fucking bad bruh. Losing Holland is inexcusable. Johnson was never going to make it to campus. Portal was fine and the team should be good next year, its the following year that I am worried about

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HookEm

HookEm 2443

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Well, if you like 5-stars, we are currently leading for the #1 recruit in the country.  

I'm not worried about our recruiting long term at all.  We have a staff full of guys who are very good recruiters and we have the facility and NIL resources to compete with anyone.

My main concern is the ability to put a team together where all the pieces make sense, with a well established culture that the whole team buys into.  We never got there with Shaka, despite recruiting classes full of amazing individual pieces.  

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