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Posted
8 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

Listen, I think we can all agree that if I didn't channel my inner Helobious yesterday, we don't have ginger Sean Bradley committed today, so you're all welcome for landing us a much needed Center. 

It's great and all that Miller got one lucky commit, but he's still the love child of Rodney Terry and Shaka Smart. He makes Charlie Strong look organized and Tom Herman seem likeable. He's destined to fail, and there's no fucking way he lands Traore or any other big time transfer. 

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Posted
7 hours ago, Napoleon said:

If this lures Cooper Flagg into the transfer portal and then to The Fo’ T Acres, I will give you a positive rep every month until he leaves for the NBA!

🤘🏀

You think we would still take him, after that brick against Houston?

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Posted

Gerry Hamilton

 

Sean Miller establishing 2026 in-state targets

Texas head coach Sean Miller made contact with a number of the top in-state prospects in the state Monday. And that includes two legacy recruits in the 2026 cycle that OTF believes the Longhorns lead for. 

Two talented legacy targets in 2026 ...

Austin Goosby, CG, 6-5.5 (Melissa, Texas/High)
The younger brother of Trevor Goosby is considered a Texas lean by OTF. A Duke offer could muddy the waters a little, but Texas will be difficult to beat. Sean Miller told Goosby and family on the call Monday that he has a plan for the potential McDonald's All-American and top 35 prospect in the class. Development, culture and fit were at the center point of the conversation. 

Bo Ogden, G/W, 6-5.5 (Austin, Texas/St. Michael's Catholic)
The top 60 ranked prospect in the 2026 cycle made an official visit to Purdue during the season. At the time, my belief is tht Ogden would likely end up at Purdue or Tennessee. Those thoughts have no changed. Texas is the team to beat. 

Other 2026 in-state Sean Miller offers to know ...

Daari Spear, CG, 6-4 (The Colony, Texas/High)
Alabama, Texas, Texas Tech, SMU and Tennessee mentioned most headed into the May "live" period. 

Davion Atkins, PF, 6-8 (Dallas, Texas/Faith Family Academy)
Texas, SMU, Kansas, Houston, Texas Tech, Oregon and TCU among the 14 offers. 

Billy White, F, 6-7 (Corpus Christi, Texas/Veterans Memorial)
White has been on campus multiple times, and was arguably a Texas lean early in the season. A fantastic perimeter shooter at this size that has Texas, Tennessee, SMU and Texas A&M at the top of the list of more than 10 offers. 

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Posted

Hmmm. Looks like a decent shooter, but almost nothing in the way of other counting stats which isn't great given he was playing 27+ mpg.  Basically a 3-point bomber (80%+ of his shots came from BTA).  No fouls. No turnovers. Basically just 3s. 

Might be ok as a drive and kick option for Mark or Weaver. I would personally prefer to use the roster spot on someone better.

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Posted
4 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

At the time, my belief is tht Ogden would likely end up at Purdue or Tennessee. Those thoughts have no changed. Texas is the team to beat. 

Make it make sense.

4 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Daari Spear

Oh, day drinking. Now I understand.

Posted
38 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

It was followed up in the thread that basically Ogden didn't want his kid to play for Terry but now Miller is in he wouldn't mind his kid being at Texas.

Thanks. Makes sense.  Never a good thing when the GM wants his own kid elsewhere.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Getafix said:

 

Re: Austin Goosby, from the Horns 247 board - 

 

Megan Fox Vegas GIF by DYD Sports & Betting Brand

 

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Also:

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(He's now listed as a guard, as you can see below.  And within 5-star range, for 247.)

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We actually could win one of these girlfriends at the school recruitments?

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Posted

is goosby a potential one and done?  My realistic prediction would be that we can make a decent showing next season in the SEC and tournament (22-24 wins 4-6 seed) in 2026. But in 2027, really take the next step with 25-28 wins, 3 seed or higher and a run to the second weekend or beyond. 

Posted
14 minutes ago, Teryor said:

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Feels like a 4 schools in 4 years guy

Well, he was with us for two years and he's a post-covid kid who never redshirted, his 3rd stop should be his last.

 

Eligibility has been a mystery these last few years, but i think he should be out of it after this next season

Posted
3 hours ago, Delta Charlie said:

is goosby a potential one and done?  My realistic prediction would be that we can make a decent showing next season in the SEC and tournament (22-24 wins 4-6 seed) in 2026. But in 2027, really take the next step with 25-28 wins, 3 seed or higher and a run to the second weekend or beyond. 

Or we could have a first season like Schloss is having in baseball. 

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Posted
7 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I've heard the dad is great dude. He's apparently done very well for himself and was a founding contributor to FSU's NIL program. He's been helpful in keeping OT Goosby focused on developing his future at Texas, which paid off for everyone late in the season.

He is A GREAT guy. I played Summer League ball with Mike in HS. Freakishly talented athlete. He damn near walked on to the Cowboys as an UDFA receiver.

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Posted
4 hours ago, UTEE97 said:

Or we could have a first season like Schloss is having in baseball. 

It's not over, yet. Schloss feels like a home run hire (he felt like a home run hire day one to all of us, I'm sure), but the expectations at Texas are extremely high, as Pierce can tell you. Let's see what happens in the postseason.

I still think Chris Beard is the best basketball coach to ever coach at Texas, and his first season was underwhelming in the grand scheme of things. I felt like it was a huge success, but under most circumstances a second round exit is nothing to get giddy about.

The main thing we're going to see with Miller is an offensive identity built on fast breaks and creating open shots. Coaches love to talk about playing fast, as much for recruiting purposes as anything. Miller has shown throughout his career that's his identity. While basketball is transactional more than it's ever been - and it's always been the most transactional sport - having a system that's fun to play in, showcases offensive talent, and provides a great path to the NBA will help recruiting a ton. It won't bring in the players by itself, but if all other things are equal Texas will be a great destination for talented offensive players. That's going to be blatantly obvious day one. 

I feel like if we can get another second round season, finish in the top half of a suddenly grueling SEC, that's plenty of reason for excitement.

Eventually we'll have to find more money for NIL, but that doesn't have to be there in year one. We'll see how everything shakes out. 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Delta Charlie said:

is goosby a potential one and done?  My realistic prediction would be that we can make a decent showing next season in the SEC and tournament (22-24 wins 4-6 seed) in 2026. But in 2027, really take the next step with 25-28 wins, 3 seed or higher and a run to the second weekend or beyond. 

Potential but very unlikely - he'd have to seriously outplay his HS ranking. Only guys in the top 10ish probably have more than a 50% chance of being one-and-done. Only 60 guys get drafted and you have to account for multiple-year college guys, internationals, and guys that go G-League or overseas out of HS.

(and guys typically don't leave college after one season unless they get a first-round grade - so realistically they more need to be in the top 30 not top 60)

Edited by ztejas
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Eventually we'll have to find more money for NIL

The NIL commitment seems pretty strong thus far with Pope, Mark and Weaver all recommitting. How much more do you think Florida committed in NIL last offseason than Texas will this offseason? I bet it's in the same ballpark. 

I mean the '23 roster was virtually good enough to win a title - granted NIL wasn't as established then. 

Edited by ztejas
Posted
1 minute ago, ztejas said:

The NIL commitment seems pretty strong thus far with Pope, Mark and Weaver all recommitting. How much more do you think Florida committed in NIL last offseason than Texas will this offseason? I bet it's in the same ballpark. 

I'm just being told our NIL commitment is a bit lacking at the moment. There were examples of players given, but I don't want to post anything about it right now. 

I want to be very clear I'm excited about all our offseason moves thus far. I have no complaints on a personal basis. This is just different people sharing with me their personal opinion. For all I know we're leading the country in NIL commitments. I don't believe that, but I couldn't tell you one way or another on a factual basis. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

I'm just being told our NIL commitment is a bit lacking at the moment. There were examples of players given, but I don't want to post anything about it right now. 

I want to be very clear I'm excited about all our offseason moves thus far. I have no complaints on a personal basis. This is just different people sharing with me their personal opinion. For all I know we're leading the country in NIL commitments. I don't believe that, but I couldn't tell you one way or another on a factual basis. 

Yeah it seems like it's at worst "good enough" right now based on how quickly Miller has locked a good roster down. 

And per your last point - it could be top 10 in the country and still not "good enough" according to some folks. 

You would think if Miller delivers results-wise the money follows.

Posted
Just now, ztejas said:

Yeah it seems like it's at worst "good enough" right now based on how quickly Miller has locked a good roster down. 

And per your last point - it could be top 10 in the country and still not "good enough" according to some folks. 

You would think if Miller delivers results-wise the money follows.

That's my feeling. 

It also depends on how the House settlement shakes out. I think there's significant NIL fatigue that people are hoping the settlement helps solve to some degree. I think once it's apparent you're still going to have to spend insane amounts above and beyond the cap figures or else you can't compete for talent, and then people realize it's important to them that Texas is competing at the highest level, then more money will be found. But it will help if Miller shows promise right from the get go. Which I believe he will. But I'm really positive about the hire, so I have some bias in that regard. I guess you could call me more hopeful than analytical here. 

Posted
1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

It's not over, yet. Schloss feels like a home run hire (he felt like a home run hire day one to all of us, I'm sure), but the expectations at Texas are extremely high, as Pierce can tell you. Let's see what happens in the postseason.

I still think Chris Beard is the best basketball coach to ever coach at Texas, and his first season was underwhelming in the grand scheme of things. I felt like it was a huge success, but under most circumstances a second round exit is nothing to get giddy about.

The main thing we're going to see with Miller is an offensive identity built on fast breaks and creating open shots. Coaches love to talk about playing fast, as much for recruiting purposes as anything. Miller has shown throughout his career that's his identity. While basketball is transactional more than it's ever been - and it's always been the most transactional sport - having a system that's fun to play in, showcases offensive talent, and provides a great path to the NBA will help recruiting a ton. It won't bring in the players by itself, but if all other things are equal Texas will be a great destination for talented offensive players. That's going to be blatantly obvious day one. 

I feel like if we can get another second round season, finish in the top half of a suddenly grueling SEC, that's plenty of reason for excitement.

Eventually we'll have to find more money for NIL, but that doesn't have to be there in year one. We'll see how everything shakes out. 

You don't always need the best players needing the highest NIL to win in MBB imo. Did Houston and Florida have the top NIL in the country? I doubt it. I feel like being able to build a roster that works well together is the most important thing. Experience is also valuable. These are the things that Beard was good at. Let's see how the roster comes together and if they can play an exciting brand of basketball.

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Posted
9 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

That's my feeling. 

It also depends on how the House settlement shakes out. I think there's significant NIL fatigue that people are hoping the settlement helps solve to some degree. I think once it's apparent you're still going to have to spend insane amounts above and beyond the cap figures or else you can't compete for talent, and then people realize it's important to them that Texas is competing at the highest level, then more money will be found. But it will help if Miller shows promise right from the get go. Which I believe he will. But I'm really positive about the hire, so I have some bias in that regard. I guess you could call me more hopeful than analytical here. 

I know it's been discussed on Surly some in regards to football, but my guess is still that when the dust settles the model will be big programs gearing up for a championship window and then having a few relatively leaner years to reset and recharge. Essentially like how the smart NFL teams manage the salary cap.

Given the amounts involved and the return on investment (none, except school pride and fun), it feels like a really hard sell for any NIL apparatus except Uncle Phil to maintain a top level output year after year forever.

Posted
11 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I feel like if we can get another second round season, finish in the top half of a suddenly grueling SEC, that's plenty of reason for excitement.

Yeah, about that, looking at SEC rosters this was a very unique year with the number of 4+ year players in the league. I don't think the SEC will anything close to what is was this year, next year. Then you consider the underclassmen likely to declare, the SEC is going to look every different next year.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Yeah, about that, looking at SEC rosters this was a very unique year with the number of 4+ year players in the league. I don't think the SEC will anything close to what is was this year, next year. Then you consider the underclassmen likely to declare, the SEC is going to look every different next year.

Yep, looking at some of the most impactful players on the SEC teams

aggy - 4 GR and 3 SRs
Arky - 3 GR and 2 impactful JRs
Kentucky - 4 SR
Florida-  3 SR
Auburn - 8 SR
Tenn - 1 GR and 4 SR

Some of the impactful FR, SO, JR may leave early, but the SEC is going to look a lot different with the COVID year seniors finally leaving college.  Unless you're Chad Baker-Mazzarra and coming back to play at 25

Edited by Js1
Posted
16 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I've avoided the ROI discussion for the most part over the years, mostly because when it has come up, it's usually zealots arguing for the negative ROI to ultimately be the downfall of a perceived unsustainability. That zealotry can be over their views on the principles of "real" NIL or their own rightness regarding economic and human behaviors versus the rest of us unwitting buffoons and our perceptions. In any direction, it looks like a tiring engagement. 

That considered, I'll wade in here and point out the "negative ROI" concept is just laughably wrongheaded. Are ski resorts unsustainable because the visitors are getting a negative ROI on their "investment"? There's a Four Seasons 747 that flies clients around the world in suites to visit exotic locales for like $200k per flyer. That experience lasts like 2 or 3 months. Are those patrons getting a monetary return on their "investment"? Have the guys who forked over tens of millions to have their names on buildings and stadiums at various schools somehow getting a positive ROI on their "investment"?

The answer to all of those questions to rational observers is "no". The premise is wrong in the first place. No one involved with booster NIL has any expectation of a monetarily positive return on the money they put in. It's not an "investment" to them. They're not deluded about buying an equivalent of pro sports team from the money-making perspective.

Markets, industries, wealthy people - they can all remain "irrational" longer than your arguments can remain viable. Rich people will continue to pay large amounts of money to field sports teams in college for: -bragging rights, -access, -credit, -experience. They do not give one fuck if you approve or think what they're doing makes any sense, and that will continue to be the case for the rest of all of our lives even as the chorus of fates continues to lament the concept's perceived "unsustainability".

It's a fair point. I'm not a gazillionaire and I don't spend a lot of time hanging out with gazillionaires so I don't know how they think. But I'd counter that the difference is that skiing or visiting St. Barth's or getting buildings named after you are not competitive endeavors. As I'm sure you well know, the comfortable rarely ever win the prize in a competitive activity. There's always someone else out there willing to step to the other side of their pain point if you're not. Being someone who's not in the know, I'd be thrilled if Texas's cruise control can match up to the rest of the top 15's all-out dash. I have to say I'd be mildly surprised if that's the case, though.

Posted
43 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

There's a Four Seasons 747 that flies clients around the world in suites to visit exotic locales for like $200k per flyer. That experience lasts like 2 or 3 months

I’ll pull this out to say that this is pay for a fairly defined experience.  If the people end up boarding a spirit 737 and hit up Des Moines, Akron, and jersey city, they might be reluctant to re-book. 
 

so I assume there is some level of performance expectation involved. 

Posted
1 hour ago, tokamak said:

It's a fair point. I'm not a gazillionaire and I don't spend a lot of time hanging out with gazillionaires so I don't know how they think. But I'd counter that the difference is that skiing or visiting St. Barth's or getting buildings named after you are not competitive endeavors. As I'm sure you well know, the comfortable rarely ever win the prize in a competitive activity. There's always someone else out there willing to step to the other side of their pain point if you're not. Being someone who's not in the know, I'd be thrilled if Texas's cruise control can match up to the rest of the top 15's all-out dash. I have to say I'd be mildly surprised if that's the case, though.

Three times is my limit in terms of reading a post and trying to comprehend it. You're going to need to explain to me what your point is by treating me like I'm an idiot with minimal reading comprehension skills, I guess. 

55 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’ll pull this out to say that this is pay for a fairly defined experience.  If the people end up boarding a spirit 737 and hit up Des Moines, Akron, and jersey city, they might be reluctant to re-book. 
 

so I assume there is some level of performance expectation involved. 

Wrong. You're applying rationale to something completely illogical. I already addressed this. I fucking addressed all of this at the dawn of NIL and the same stupid shit came up then as well. Maybe one donor gets tired of playing the game because the plane can't be trusted to land at all, or it keeps landing in Akron, fine. A group of them? No. Absolutely not. ATM has NIL money. Baylor has NIL money. Arkansas sports, who haven't won a fucking thing since the basketball title in the '90's with Corliss Williamson and Todd fucking Day, are showered in NIL money. 

Many, many programs that never win shit have happy NIL boosters taking their shots. And guess what happens when actual fatigue sets in? Rodney Terry gets fired and Sean Miller gets guaranteed, upgraded NIL money to start over. The landscape is littered with these examples. 

Nobody's base takes their money and goes elsewhere. These are humans, with human emotions. They'll make whatever decisions suit their whim or feelings and justify that with whatever logic they can find. 

No one can cite an example in the last 4 years of a program's supporters simply being frustrated with losing and never donating to NIL again. You can find examples of NIL being withheld until there's regime change, but that's withholding money so they can spend more with enthusiasm later. 

The notion that logic is going to arrive to this market as though it is an unrigged, free market that will ultimately be driven eventually by sound market forces is laughable. This isn't tulip mania or dot.com irrational exuberance. Economists are dogshit forecasters of the future in the first place, but they're particularly idiotic in moments like this when they're applying classroom theory and unrelated historical anecdotes to a semi-corrupt, poorly regulated, emotional game being waged as social warfare by people with fucktons of money and a shit ton of emotional affinity that they apply to almost nothing else in their lives like this landscape.

Absurdly, everyone seems to understand this to be true when it comes to analyzing Phil Knight's motives or those of Larry Ellison. Changing expectations or applying different rules because the other players have less money is basic folly. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Three times is my limit in terms of reading a post and trying to comprehend it. You're going to need to explain to me what your point is by treating me like I'm an idiot with minimal reading comprehension skills, I guess.

Rereading you, I think we're talking about two separate (albeit related) things. My original point was just that I foresee a pattern of "fatigue" and "reload" developing over time. If Ohio State is breaking the piggy bank to assemble a $30m roster, does it make much sense for Texas NIL to comfortably fund a $20m roster? Being middle class doesn't count for a whole lot, here. That's it. I don't have a whole lot of deep thoughts on ROI or individual motivations.

Posted
3 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Rereading you, I think we're talking about two separate (albeit related) things. My original point was just that I foresee a pattern of "fatigue" and "reload" developing over time. If Ohio State is breaking the piggy bank to assemble a $30m roster, does it make much sense for Texas NIL to comfortably fund a $20m roster? Being middle class doesn't count for a whole lot, here. That's it. I don't have a whole lot of deep thoughts on ROI or individual motivations.

Ohio State's non-corporate NIL stack for the 2024 season was just less than $25M. I do not know what their corporate side was. 

Texas' non-corporate NIL stack for the 2024 season was just less than $25M. Corporate was trending towards 8 figures. 

One side bragged to the media about it and the other went about its business. 

There are rumors that OSU isn't going to reach those numbers this cycle, although they're not going anywhere. 

Texas' non-corporate NIL stack for the 2025 season surpasses that of 2024, and the same will be true of corporate. 

Texas is not middle class on this stuff. Neither is OSU, Oregon, or Michigan. Don't expect that to change. 

If someone brings a knife, these groups will bring a gun. If someone puts one of theirs in the hospital, they will put everyone else in the morgue. That's both the Chicago way and today's NIL landscape. 

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Posted

I will be curious to see where an upstart school like Texas Tech lands after a few years.  Cody Campbell is throwing around huge money and they spent their way to the top football transfer portal class.  They may not have the depth of NIL funds that some other schools have, but they have a motivated billionaire who is flexing more than any other single donor in the college landscape. 

To put it In "The Wire" terms, Texas is Stringer Bell.  Ohio State is Avon Barksdale.  Oregon is Fat Joe.  Tech is trying to be Marlo Stanfield.  But Tech might just be Bubbles.  Aggy is Frank Sobotka, over-inflated sense of importance and never actually in the game. 

Posted
18 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I will be curious to see where an upstart school like Texas Tech lands after a few years.  Cody Campbell is throwing around huge money and they spent their way to the top football transfer portal class.  They may not have the depth of NIL funds that some other schools have, but they have a motivated billionaire who is flexing more than any other single donor in the college landscape. 

To put it In "The Wire" terms, Texas is Stringer Bell.  Ohio State is Avon Barksdale.  Oregon is Fat Joe.  Tech is trying to be Marlo Stanfield.  But Tech might just be Bubbles.  Aggy is Frank Sobotka, over-inflated sense of importance and never actually in the game. 

There is no true terrain for Tech to take and hold in this game that Knight hasn't already taken. You can't move Lubbock and make it more desirable. You can't improve on the surroundings and non-sports experiences. You can't brag on academics or offer branding value. The only thing they can offer is a lot of money. That works at times, but if it worked a ton, their team would look a hell of a lot better than it does. They do not remind me of Marlo Stanfield at all. They're Brother Mouzone. Hired muscle that can be a pain in someone's ass, but a side player never reaching the big stage. 

ATM is Ziggy. Come on. 

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Posted

Good call on Aggy. 100% correct that they are Ziggy.  

And my analogy isn't really great as there isn't a "Marlo" because there won't be a single college running the game.  You are correct that really the only thing they have going for them is money (and to a lesser extent owning a decent recruiting base).  Brother Mouzone is a decent comp.

In the last 20 years, Clemson is probably the closest comp to Marlo. Not really an OG, but making some decent waves.

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