The Business of Hollywood & Streaming

[HamsterHookah 112]

27 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

except here's the problem - with king of queens, raymond, and sandler stuff, those guys are writers.  raymond was based on romano's comedy, and he wouldn't be there to help guide the scripts and the show.  same with kevin james, he was a big creative part of his show.  sandler movies are likely only funny because he and other comedians (writers, cough), make changes and adlib when they're shooting.  those scripts are basic and formulaic before they get on set.

if you want robots to write that shit, you'll have to get robots to play the characters as well.  when those guys produce their own shows, it's so they can be involved in the creative process.  there are plenty of actors who are just actors, but those 3 examples (and many others) wouldn't fly.

even the big bang's of the world deal with a mega-showrunner like chuck lorre and he's a writer too.  i hope corporations try to produce a multi-cam sitcom using gpt.  the fallout would be something.

Maybe those were bad examples, but the point was -- average/mediocre formulaic laugh track tropey stuff that average/mediocre viewers eat up en masse. AI can write that stuff, probably. 

And maybe AI can only do 80% of it and you need people to polish and do the last mile of the last 20%?

[henrygandorf 28888]

1 hour ago, HamsterHookah said:

Maybe those were bad examples, but the point was -- average/mediocre formulaic laugh track tropey stuff that average/mediocre viewers eat up en masse. AI can write that stuff, probably. 

And maybe AI can only do 80% of it and you need people to polish and do the last mile of the last 20%?

the difference is that ai cannot write comedy.  at least not intentional comedy.  they could probably churn out csi/svu/er procedurals no problem.

it won't matter, because by the time they need to resort to that, sag and dga will be involved, and it will be a fucking bloodbath.  there's a lot of solidarity right now.

[HamsterHookah 112]

26 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

the difference is that ai cannot write comedy.  at least not intentional comedy.  they could probably churn out csi/svu/er procedurals no problem.

it won't matter, because by the time they need to resort to that, sag and dga will be involved, and it will be a fucking bloodbath.  there's a lot of solidarity right now.

Do you see any similarity with what is going on with music right now? Like how Drake and The Weekend had AI use an LLM of their music and put out a near facsimile of what they would do and Universal flipped out? Not sure if the music industry has a union, but I'd think they are thinking similarly as creative artists who trade on their output...

[Ricky Butler 2643]

52 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

they could probably churn out csi/svu/er procedurals no problem.

But then who wheels the AI onto set to tell David Caruso to say his lines?

[henrygandorf 28888]

3 minutes ago, Ricky Butler said:

But then who wheels the AI onto set to tell David Caruso to say his lines?

can you write me a csi miami one-liner having to do with a robot?

ChatGPT

Sure, here's a one-liner for you:

"I guess this robot thought it was smarter than us, but it didn't calculate one thing - the long arm of the law." - Horatio Caine, CSI: Miami.

[Ricky Butler 2643]

Just now, henrygandorf said:

can you write me a csi miami one-liner having to do with a robot?

ChatGPT

Sure, here's a one-liner for you:

"I guess this robot thought it was smarter than us, but it didn't calculate one thing - the long arm of the law." - Horatio Caine, CSI: Miami.

Brilliant.

I always assumed AI would come for lawyers before it came for the artists and the performers. Seems like boring writing would be the first victim.

[ChickenSandwich 9768]

[Sandman 3399]

On 5/4/2023 at 12:03 AM, HamsterHookah said:

Great article on some of the underbelly: https://www.newyorker.com/culture/notes-on-hollywood/why-are-tv-writers-so-miserable?

 

Man, some of these people seem incredibly entitled. 

Quote

“Right now, especially with the strike looming, people are afraid of weird stuff,” she said. “They want ‘Yellowstone.’ They want ‘This Is Us.’ Those shows are great, but not everyone wants to write that show.” 

If no one wants to buy what you're selling, who's fault is it? I applaud people who have taken risks and chased their dream but sometimes it doesn't work out. 

[Captain Ron 12722]

5 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

Maybe those were bad examples, but the point was -- average/mediocre formulaic laugh track tropey stuff that average/mediocre viewers eat up en masse. AI can write that stuff, probably. 

And maybe AI can only do 80% of it and you need people to polish and do the last mile of the last 20%?

AIs don't know comedy, its really that simple. They don't know what's funny. Even if they took a bunch of funny material, they might get lucky and crank out a joke here or there, but it won't by intentionally funny without understanding humor - and AIs don't have feelings, so ...

 

 

[Captain Ron 12722]

2 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

Do you see any similarity with what is going on with music right now? Like how Drake and The Weekend had AI use an LLM of their music and put out a near facsimile of what they would do and Universal flipped out? Not sure if the music industry has a union, but I'd think they are thinking similarly as creative artists who trade on their output...

[Parliament 14017]

Things not going well for Paramount.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/paramount-layoffs-domestic-networks-group-1235483231/

[HamsterHookah 112]

Is it just me or does it feel like a completely different world than the last strike, probably due to streaming and consumer habits and all the cable that has been cut? The hyper 24-hour news cycle?

I say that because last strike it was very much a topic that stayed on the radar. You saw it talked about a lot but also in the shows people watched, which were live or near real time. 

I think it's been a week and I've stopped hearing anyone caring about the strike or that it's happening. Maybe we have to wait until the fall when it finally starts affecting peoples favorite shows or something, but I do wonder if the writers have a greatly diminished public platform and bully pulpit in 2023.

[henrygandorf 28888]

5 hours ago, Parliament said:

Things not going well for Paramount.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/paramount-layoffs-domestic-networks-group-1235483231/

once again, fewer gatekeepers, fewer gates. reorg and consolidation are the watchwords. 

[Chopper 16666]

On 5/10/2023 at 8:33 AM, HamsterHookah said:

Is it just me or does it feel like a completely different world than the last strike, probably due to streaming and consumer habits and all the cable that has been cut? The hyper 24-hour news cycle?

I say that because last strike it was very much a topic that stayed on the radar. You saw it talked about a lot but also in the shows people watched, which were live or near real time. 

I think it's been a week and I've stopped hearing anyone caring about the strike or that it's happening. Maybe we have to wait until the fall when it finally starts affecting peoples favorite shows or something, but I do wonder if the writers have a greatly diminished public platform and bully pulpit in 2023.

Someone joked the other day that that the last writer's strike caused Jesse Plemons to become a murderer, one of the dumbest ever story lines on a popular network tv show, and they hoped this new strike won't lead to such pitiful new scripts.

I think though a major difference between this strike and the one in 2007 is that nobody expects this one will be over anytime soon whereas the strike in 2007 lasted just 3 months. Also in 2007 there were still shows on network OTA that people cared about and the issues this time are much more complex.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Chopper

[HamsterHookah 112]

13 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Someone joked the other day that that the last writer's strike caused Jesse Plemons to become a murderer, one of the dumbest ever story lines on a popular network tv show, and they hoped this new strike won't lead to such pitiful new scripts.

I think though a major difference between this strike and the one in 2007 is that nobody expects this one will be over anytime soon whereas the strike in 2007 lasted just 3 months. Also in 2007 there were still shows on network OTA that people cared about and the issues this time are much more complex.

Yea I think that's my point and the one Henry made earlier-- the strike was so telgraphed and known that everyone prepared for it. Studios and streamers and people all have a lot of dry powder and provisions to wait it out, and generally the everyday people and watcher of tv shows, aren't affected. Nobody is watching Channel 8 or Channel 5 at a specific time and date anymore for a show.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4962]

Shoot, I need to rewatch The Wire, Deadwood, Clone Wars, and Battlestar Galactica anyways.

[Captain Ron 12722]

So was this "telegraphed" or did the contract just expire at a better time? The last strike happened midseason-mid filming. I mean so many shows were just destroyed by the last strike. Despite streaming, etc, network TV still exists. This will break something.

[HamsterHookah 112]

56 minutes ago, Captain Ron said:

So was this "telegraphed" or did the contract just expire at a better time? The last strike happened midseason-mid filming. I mean so many shows were just destroyed by the last strike. Despite streaming, etc, network TV still exists. This will break something.

Per @henrygandorf, who is about as plugged in as anyone on here for this stuff, he said:

Quote

the weird lesson here, which i guess is unavoidable, is why announce and publicize the strike?  everyone knew the deal would lapse on may 1st, and as far back as november, people who knew said nothing would be resolved before now, so everyone saw this coming.  but a strike is supposed to cause turmoil through its unpredictability, and leave the higher-ups with no other option than to cave in to the demands.  there have been strikes before and everyone was ready for this one, so it's ho-hum, here we go again.

 

[Queen Bitch 1692]

This would've happened in May 2020, when the last contract was up... but Covid basically killed any negotiating power the guild had. Leadership knew there was no way they'd get a massive strike authorization vote. AI/ChatGPT weren't on the radar yet, but all of the other issues would've prompted a strike. So this moment has really been in the back of minds since then, on both sides.

Also, picketing rules, and I've met more writers in the last week than I have since joining the guild 5 years ago.

[henrygandorf 28888]

1 hour ago, Captain Ron said:

So was this "telegraphed" or did the contract just expire at a better time? The last strike happened midseason-mid filming. I mean so many shows were just destroyed by the last strike. Despite streaming, etc, network TV still exists. This will break something.

much like baseball and other professional sports league strikes/lockouts, everybody knows not only the expiration of the agreements, but the sticking points in the negotiations.  in short, people always know (or think they know) how hard it will be to come together. 

my recollection of the 2007-8 strike is that both sides were confident that a deal could be reached and worked to get there, but it didn't happen.  this one has always felt like it would be a longer, more serious one.  it addresses both new issues and issues that have been kicked down the road.  the feeling is that the way things get negotiated now will have a lasting effect and will be much harder to ever change later on, especially when it comes to streaming and the rights of shows.  syndication isn't really a thing like it was 15-20 years ago so the rules need to change.

it also comes at a time where we're less reliant on broadcast network programming, which means less pressure from the public to get it sorted.  do you know when the next season of hacks comes out?  severance?  loot? (6 months ago i would've added dave and ted lasso).  the point is that if they get pushed from december to march, nobody will notice the difference, because shit takes so long to come out on premium cable/streaming.  there is no schedule.

sucks for the writers to lose that leverage.  at least it stopped fucking raining.

[atomheartbevo 89046]

Hulu will be fully merged into Disney+ over the next 7 months.  Writing has been on the wall for a long time I guess, just hope this doesn't screw with Hulu's own programming, and also hope that it doesn't cause some of the stuff on Hulu that's nowhere else to be dropped.

[MrBig 5183]

The 2007 strike was mostly focused on DVD and syndication royalties. Internet streaming was not a major player.

This strike comes after the explosion of internet streaming and the 2020 repeal of the Paramount Decrees.

Movie studios now have the right to control the distribution of their produced content (whether it be theatrically or streaming). 

This used to be a major obstacle for old studio systems like Paramount because they were constrained by rules not applicable to companies like Netflix and Amazon producing and releasing their own content.

A lot of these WGA negotiations used to hinge on royalties that were tied to profit sharing from box office numbers. When productions are shifted to streaming platforms, it can change how the viewership numbers are calculated to determine profit sharing. It is also up to the companies themselves to provide streaming numbers (which they do not like to share), which adds another layer to the negotiations because the formula to standardize this count needs to be negotiated as well. 

I would not be surprised if streamers started vertically integrating and creating their own bubble of non-union productions and hyping up their own superstars similar to how the old studio system used to exist from the 20s-40s. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

On 5/10/2023 at 6:08 PM, henrygandorf said:

once again, fewer gatekeepers, fewer gates. reorg and consolidation are the watchwords. 

Same as it ever was

The industry doesn’t matter, over time, technology comes for us all. Followed by reorg and consolidation. 

[HamsterHookah 112]

2 hours ago, MrBig said:

The 2007 strike was mostly focused on DVD and syndication royalties. Internet streaming was not a major player.

This strike comes after the explosion of internet streaming and the 2020 repeal of the Paramount Decrees.

Movie studios now have the right to control the distribution of their produced content (whether it be theatrically or streaming). 

This used to be a major obstacle for old studio systems like Paramount because they were constrained by rules not applicable to companies like Netflix and Amazon producing and releasing their own content.

A lot of these WGA negotiations used to hinge on royalties that were tied to profit sharing from box office numbers. When productions are shifted to streaming platforms, it can change how the viewership numbers are calculated to determine profit sharing. It is also up to the companies themselves to provide streaming numbers (which they do not like to share), which adds another layer to the negotiations because the formula to standardize this count needs to be negotiated as well. 

I would not be surprised if streamers started vertically integrating and creating their own bubble of non-union productions and hyping up their own superstars similar to how the old studio system used to exist from the 20s-40s. 

The bold is, from what I understand, the biggest problem the writers have with getting their deal done. They don't have the access to the data/numbers.

[HamsterHookah 112]

 

[ChickenSandwich 9768]

If a movie was being filmed overseas, presumably with a full script, would they be able to hire local writers for simple rewrites and edits outside of the union?

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4962]

With this whole writers strike and all, some studio should commission some recent immigrant writers (obviously this is not likely to happen, because if they emigrated based on their writing skill they are probably a member of the union) from somewhere like Vietnam or South Korea to write a love story about say a black jew from New Jersey (not sure those exist) falling in love with an old southern belle from South Carolina and how their families deal with it. But from the perspective of someone who hasn't grown up here and doesn't really "get" US culture. Basically make it about the stereotypes of how the rest of the world sees us. Kind of like we used to and still do with other minority groups here. If it was done right and in a friendly "this is how we see you" way it could be entertaining and poignant at the same time.

[Queen Bitch 1692]

16 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

If a movie was being filmed overseas, presumably with a full script, would they be able to hire local writers for simple rewrites and edits outside of the union?

Those writers would be scabs and banned from ever joining the guild. 

[HamsterHookah 112]

Read some numbers today that don't bode well for our writer friends and the writer side of the strike:

• Disney's earnings were a big miss and bad, going to cause more belt-tightening on shows and movies as they are still on a path to profitability. ESPN and ABC are bleeding Disney dry.
• Hulu was flat (no growth), which has been their story for years (and Disney on tap to finish acquiring them)
• Cord Cutting is killing TV's/Shows. Comcast led the way with the loss of customers.

Quote

 

With the Q1 decline, total pay-TV penetration of occupied U.S. households (including for internet services like YouTube TV and Hulu) dropped to 58.5% — its lowest point since 1992, two years before DirecTV launched as a new rival to cable TV, according to Moffett’s calculations. As of the end of Q1, U.S. pay-TV services had 75.5 million customers, down nearly 7% on an annual basis. Cable TV operators’ rate of decline in Q1 reached -9.9% year over year, while satellite providers DirecTV and Dish Network fell -13.4%. In addition, so-called “virtual MVPDs” (multichannel video programming distributors) lost 264,000 customers in Q1, among the worst quarters to date for the segment…

Comcast, the largest pay-TV provider in the country, dropped 614,000 video customers in Q1 — the most of any single company — to stand at 15.53 million at the end of the period…Google’s YouTube TV was the only provider tracked by MoffettNathanson that picked up subs in Q1, adding an estimated 300,000 subscribers in the period (to reach about 6.3 million) and netting 1.4 million subscribers over the past year. Hulu, meanwhile, has barely grown over the past three years (and lost about 100,000 live TV subs in Q1), Moffett noted, while FuboTV lost 160,000 subscribers in North America in the first quarter to mark its worst quarterly loss on record.

 

 

[HamsterHookah 112]

9 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Instead of focusing on programming, the big telecoms should focus on getting tik tok banned and slowly coaching people to expand their attention spans again.  This isn’t even really about how deep your library is or your streaming service’s price point anymore.  It’s that young people are going to fuck around on tik tok / YouTube / instagram /  whatever instead of watching a traditional full length show.  Even YouTube is moving towards “shorts” because that regular 5 minute video is just TOO LONG OMG I CANT EVEN!

To your point about not being about price anymore, I have FuboTV, YouTubeTV, Disney+, Hulu, Prime Video, HBOmax, Netflix & AppleTV which, in sum, costs me more than I ever paid when it was just a DirecTV + premium channels bill ($100-200/month).

Edited May 16, 2023 by HamsterHookah

[UT_OB1 2197]

21 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

To your point about not being about price anymore, I have FuboTV, YouTubeTV, Disney+, Hulu, Prime Video, HBOmax, Netflix & AppleTV which, in sum, costs me more than I ever paid when it was just a DirecTV + premium channels bill ($100-200/month).

I have all those except YouTube and fubo. We pay $50. I get fubo (or something) for 3-4 months a year to watch the horns. $70 a month for YouTube plus whatever you’re paying for fubo seems crazy. 

[HamsterHookah 112]

36 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

I have all those except YouTube and fubo. We pay $50. I get fubo (or something) for 3-4 months a year to watch the horns. $70 a month for YouTube plus whatever you’re paying for fubo seems crazy. 

We only have FuboTV for the Dallas Stars and Texas Rangers. It's the Fubo + YoutubeTV that make the bulk of the costs to your point ($150 or so) but they are also the subs that get the most use by a lionshare.

[PantsTent 2002]

42 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

We only have FuboTV for the Dallas Stars and Texas Rangers. It's the Fubo + YoutubeTV that make the bulk of the costs to your point ($150 or so) but they are also the subs that get the most use by a lionshare.

I get the Fubo for the Regions Sports networks, but what does Youtube give you that Fubo doesn't have?

[HamsterHookah 112]

1 hour ago, PantsTent said:

I get the Fubo for the Regions Sports networks, but what does Youtube give you that Fubo doesn't have?

Texas Rangers baseball can only be viewed on Fubo and Bally Sports network from what I’ve seen…

[PantsTent 2002]

Just now, HamsterHookah said:

Texas Rangers baseball can only be viewed on Fubo and Bally Sports network from what I’ve seen…

Yes, that's correct. I'm asking why you need YouTubeTV on top of Fubo?

[HamsterHookah 112]

6 minutes ago, PantsTent said:

Yes, that's correct. I'm asking why you need YouTubeTV on top of Fubo?

Good question — I’ll review it tonight. If what you imply is true and I can cancel youtubeTV, you will have unlocked some value in this hidden inefficiency and I’ll venmo you 10% of June-Dec fees I would have paid to Google as a commission ($56). Lol :-9

[henrygandorf 28888]

3 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

Read some numbers today that don't bode well for our writer friends and the writer side of the strike:

• Disney's earnings were a big miss and bad, going to cause more belt-tightening on shows and movies as they are still on a path to profitability. ESPN and ABC are bleeding Disney dry.
• Hulu was flat (no growth), which has been their story for years (and Disney on tap to finish acquiring them)
• Cord Cutting is killing TV's/Shows. Comcast led the way with the loss of customers.

for those unaware, comcast also owns nbcu so they're all over this mess.  though parks makes a bunch of money for them (more than the movie studio for sure), so maybe that's the whole point.  they're probably a better analog for waystar royco, other than the atn piece.  talking companies, not ownership.

[Deej 76218]

4 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Instead of focusing on programming, the big telecoms should focus on getting tik tok banned and slowly coaching people to expand their attention spans again.  This isn’t even really about how deep your library is or your streaming service’s price point anymore.  It’s that young people are going to fuck around on tik tok / YouTube / instagram /  whatever instead of watching a traditional full length show.  Even YouTube is moving towards “shorts” because that regular 5 minute video is just TOO LONG OMG I CANT EVEN!

TL;DR

[UT_OB1 2197]

1 hour ago, HamsterHookah said:

Texas Rangers baseball can only be viewed on Fubo and Bally Sports network from what I’ve seen…

Well if you chose to be a rangers fan, then you get what you deserve 😃

[Captain Ron 12722]

 

[Neonmoon 38126]

This thread reminds me I need to cancel one of the following. 

YTTV, Prime, Hulu, Netflix, Disney+, AppleTV

If it wasn't for football and wife's shows, I would cancel YTTV. We get Prime with package delivery, so not Prime. AppleTV is cranking out some good shit.

I'm leaning towards Hulu

[HamsterHookah 112]

21 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

This thread reminds me I need to cancel one of the following. 

YTTV, Prime, Hulu, Netflix, Disney+, AppleTV

If it wasn't for football and wife's shows, I would cancel YTTV. We get Prime with package delivery, so not Prime. AppleTV is cranking out some good shit.

I'm leaning towards Hulu

Disney+ and Hulu are merging, right? I.e. Hulu will be available on Disney+ platform?

[Bateshorn 9610]

On 5/12/2023 at 9:46 AM, HamsterHookah said:

 

Basically a Succession story line at this point.

[CooterBrown 17760]

A UK based article from a few weeks ago said that Disney+ was planning on bidding for the next Premier League broadcast/streaming rights.   Dunno, if that's just in the UK or worldwide but if that happens, I'm dumping YouTube TV. I can always pirate stream the handful of Longhorn football games each year.

 

[henrygandorf 28888]

 

[henrygandorf 28888]

44 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

And dozens of viewers suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

I didn’t realize how much the other services had followed the Netflix model of creating a never ending stream of shitty original content that nobody even knows about much less watches.

benedict society was really good and only recently got cancelled.  i didn't watch willow but know some on here were excited for it.  nobody creates the never-ending stream like netflix.  these impairment charges have gotten way too popular and only hurt the viewer.

[Post Oak 20114]

On 5/16/2023 at 6:21 PM, UT_OB1 said:

Well if you chose to be a rangers fan, then you get what you deserve 😃

 

[Chopper 16666]

On 5/17/2023 at 12:40 PM, Neonmoon said:

This thread reminds me I need to cancel one of the following. 

YTTV, Prime, Hulu, Netflix, Disney+, AppleTV

If it wasn't for football and wife's shows, I would cancel YTTV. We get Prime with package delivery, so not Prime. AppleTV is cranking out some good shit.

I'm leaning towards Hulu

Should be easy to do 6 months of apple, quit, then do 6 months of hulu per year, no? Also if you have amex plat you can get reimbursed for the full disney/hulu/espn bundle.

On 5/16/2023 at 12:00 PM, HamsterHookah said:

Read some numbers today that don't bode well for our writer friends and the writer side of the strike:

• Disney's earnings were a big miss and bad, going to cause more belt-tightening on shows and movies as they are still on a path to profitability. ESPN and ABC are bleeding Disney dry.
• Hulu was flat (no growth), which has been their story for years (and Disney on tap to finish acquiring them)
• Cord Cutting is killing TV's/Shows. Comcast led the way with the loss of customers.

 

Good news Disney found additional cost cutting measures.

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

benedict society was really good and only recently got cancelled.  i didn't watch willow but know some on here were excited for it.  nobody creates the never-ending stream like netflix.  these impairment charges have gotten way too popular and only hurt the viewer.

If there's any demand for any of those shows you'd think they'd license them to other streamers, like roku or freevee, no?

Edited May 19, 2023 by Chopper

[YChang 3394]

Found this video really interesting explaining what the writer’s are fighting for:

https://youtu.be/tWiM2J8MHnI

[Captain Ron 12722]

Interesting prediction from Scott Galloway on the strike. I don't agree with him much on this. I think there is a very big difference between coal miners and writers. He's had some other opinions on this, but they are of a similar vein.