NFL 2023 Offseason

[Vic Mackey 47,090]

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[BurntOrange&White 39,934]

This handwringing about RB's is so stupid. It's literally a devalued position because of how the game is now played. Why spend all that money on a RB when you can get a really good WR2 and even WR3. 

[Texzilla58 4,741]

Henry and others lumping pollard with Daquan and Kosb is wrong. Tony signed his franchise offer asap; he wants that $11 mill. Saquan wanted a long term deal at $16+m a year rejecting a $14m deal. Vision. Sign your tag or don’t play. Nobly two options.

[Vic Mackey 47,090]

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[closetohumping 17,453]

I sort of do feel for the running backs but it's business.  

[closetohumping 17,453]

On 6/23/2023 at 11:01 AM, cmontexas said:

I think the pendulum has swung too far to where RB isnt valued enough. A team with replacement level running backs is literally leaving yards- and win probability-on the field every play.

No other position besides QB and WR1 has that much variability between elite and replacement and the effect that it actually has on the game. 10-15 million for an extra half yard to a yard per play for your offense is a great value

I actually disagree respectfully.  The Niners and Broncos have proven they can make almost any running back work.  True, a guy like CMac is game changing. 

[Had Enough 2,083]

True, a guy like CMac is game changing. 

Did the 49ers go further in the post season with him than they otherwise would have?

[closetohumping 17,453]

4 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

 

 

Did the 49ers go further in the post season with him than they otherwise would have?

 

 

He was an awful QB for sure.

[Herpa Derpa 6,126]

On 7/17/2023 at 7:16 PM, Dewey said:

Now no one over 3 years old gets a look now. 

Very true. Seattle's newest RB prospect:

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,328]

The RBs are getting screwed with the franchise tag now. NFL going to need to carve out a no franchise on them or just going to get worse. Let free market pay them as their tenure is so short for even the most productive.

[Had Enough 2,083]

He was an awful QB for sure.

So you’re saying maybe this year we’ll find out.

RBs that are great in the passing game are different animals.

[closetohumping 17,453]

16 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

The RBs are getting screwed with the franchise tag now. NFL going to need to carve out a no franchise on them or just going to get worse. Let free market pay them as their tenure is so short for even the most productive.

Dalvin Cook been on the market right?

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

18 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

The RBs are getting screwed with the franchise tag now. NFL going to need to carve out a no franchise on them or just going to get worse. Let free market pay them as their tenure is so short for even the most productive.

Good luck getting the owners to agree to any roll back of the franchise tag. They'll fight that to the death. 

[Texzilla58 4,741]

The RBs are getting screwed with the franchise tag now. NFL going to need to carve out a no franchise on them or just going to get worse. Let free market pay them as their tenure is so short for even the most productive.

How are RBs getting screwed with the franchise tag? In 2023 there were 6 players total who got the tag in the entire league. 6 out of 32 teams. 3 were RBs. Pollard signed his. Saquan and Jacobs have not.

A franchise tag gives a player a nice payday guaranteed. For a top RB like Saquan the tag will generally provide a better opportunity than if it didn’t exist; what is the open market for an aging oft injured RB. Chances are he and Jacobs both would be playing on cheaper prove it deals or heavy incentive deals, neither with absolute guarantees like the tag. All three will likely be released in 2024 to seek the level of the market.

So Bijan gets a first round big money contract. The good is it’s fully guaranteed. The bad is if they take his fifth year he’ll likely be tagged and then released to seek his fortune elsewhere. That’s better than Pollard who had a cheap rookie deal as a fourth round pick. He will never make up the first round money Bijan gets.

I’m less concerned about the whining of star RBs who make great money than the lower round and UDFA RBs who hope to be a Pollard but are mostly churned out with two or three seasons.

[Vic Mackey 47,090]

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[Vic Mackey 47,090]

 

[LTtxfan 49,309]

RBs have to get support from players union or they are screwed.  They are becoming like punters, kickers and special teams players... easy to replace

[Gene Parmesan 4,008]

It's never going back to the way it was with a salary cap, but as long as the high school and college game continues to produce a ton of RB talent there is nothing to change.  You flood any market with cheap quality labor, and that profession is going to have lower pay.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,328]

4 hours ago, Texzilla58 said:

How are RBs getting screwed with the franchise tag? In 2023 there were 6 players total who got the tag in the entire league. 6 out of 32 teams. 3 were RBs. Pollard signed his. Saquan and Jacobs have not.

A franchise tag gives a player a nice payday guaranteed. For a top RB like Saquan the tag will generally provide a better opportunity than if it didn’t exist; what is the open market for an aging oft injured RB. Chances are he and Jacobs both would be playing on cheaper prove it deals or heavy incentive deals, neither with absolute guarantees like the tag. All three will likely be released in 2024 to seek the level of the market.

So Bijan gets a first round big money contract. The good is it’s fully guaranteed. The bad is if they take his fifth year he’ll likely be tagged and then released to seek his fortune elsewhere. That’s better than Pollard who had a cheap rookie deal as a fourth round pick. He will never make up the first round money Bijan gets.

I’m less concerned about the whining of star RBs who make great money than the lower round and UDFA RBs who hope to be a Pollard but are mostly churned out with two or three seasons.

Saquon is going to make about 50% less than market. The tag almost always will provide a worse opportunity, teams wouldn't use it otherwise.

[tbone_ 14,134]

I miss the days when a bad mf running back could take over a game, or hell even a whole season.

[TonyTexas 10,518]

2 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Saquon is going to make about 50% less than market. The tag almost always will provide a worse opportunity, teams wouldn't use it otherwise.

The franchise tag number is, by definition, the market. 

[Pam Cummings 9,646]

"The market" is bullshit. Get rid of rookie scale contracts for RBs. Then we can see what a true market looks like. Not the heavily manipulated shit we have now that only favors owners.

[Mother mopar 3,321]

"The market" is bullshit. Get rid of rookie scale contracts for RBs. Then we can see what a true market looks like. Not the heavily manipulated shit we have now that only favors owners.

Get rid of rookie contracts period. Let the free market decide all positions.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,328]

49 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

The franchise tag number is, by definition, the market. 

Taking 3 of the leagues top running backs out of the equation when calculating market is some good owner math.

[Pam Cummings 9,646]

5 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

6 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

"The market" is bullshit. Get rid of rookie scale contracts for RBs. Then we can see what a true market looks like. Not the heavily manipulated shit we have now that only favors owners.

Get rid of rookie contracts period. Let the free market decide all positions.

For RBs it's pretty clear the prime is age 20-25. Big time bullshit to allow teams to lock those players up for cheap money for that entire time. Allow them to come out of college earlier as well. We don't need to see a player like Leonard Fournette play a 3rd year of college.

 

These guys get beaten to shit, and are often smaller than a lot of the other players on the field. Any time Earl Campbell gets honored at DKR we have to watch them wheel his ass out there. Not worth putting your body through that for peanuts while watching fucking Daniel Jones get paid big time money.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Pam Cummings

[TonyTexas 10,518]

4 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Taking 3 of the leagues top running backs out of the equation when calculating market is some good owner math.

Wtf are you talking about?

[PittsburghTiger 6,192]

 

On 7/18/2023 at 4:49 PM, Vic Mackey said:

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I must have missed him going to Tampa. That has the potential for a lot of humor.

[tbone_ 14,134]

Farmer tan looks good

[TonyTexas 10,518]

22 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

Get rid of rookie contracts period. Let the free market decide all positions.

Good luck with that  Every league has them, for good reason. Even the veteran players like it. They don’t want unproven rookies taking an even bigger chunk of the payroll pool at their expense. 

[Hammerin Hank 1,227]

It just seems wrong to ask the RBs to take bottom dollar while also asking them to throw their bodies in front of a 250 lb defender running full speed to keep the $40 million a year QB from getting hurt 

[Pam Cummings 9,646]

6 minutes ago, Hammerin Hank said:

It just seems wrong to ask the RBs to take bottom dollar while also asking them to throw their bodies in front of a 250 lb defender running full speed to keep the $40 million a year QB from getting hurt 

That's because it is. I would rather fix the problem before we get to the point where athletic people would rather not put themselves through that and defenses no longer have to defend against any sort of legitimate running threat.

[Vic Mackey 47,090]

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[Texzilla58 4,741]

RBs have to get support from players union or they are screwed.  They are becoming like punters, kickers and special teams players... easy to replace

And why do we need affirmative action for RBs? It requires the least skill of any position to make the change from college to pros. Including kicking, punting, or long snapping. Star RBs don’t do special teams which is key on all teams. The only skill they have to learn, and many never do, is picking up blitzes and pass blocking. More league ready RBs flood the market than there are slots for each season. Combine that with short playing careers and the opportunity for second contracts is minimal. Most RBs are done by 25, all are done at 27, and high mileage from high school college makes the pro game tough. 1500 pro touches is s a brick wall. Numbers don’t lie and tape don’t lie.

[Blotto 23,560]

3 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

That's because it is. I would rather fix the problem before we get to the point where athletic people would rather not put themselves through that and defenses no longer have to defend against any sort of legitimate running threat.

Lulz. Are you under the impression that the hundreds of college running backs graduating every year will refuse that NFL payday so they can get a jump on that cherry gig at Enterprise Rental Car? Wins and losses will largely keep things in check, and if teams decide that not having a top running back on the roster is costing them wins, they will adjust accordingly. But right now, its not really hurting teams. Consider the last 5 superbowls...I believe Mixon in '22 and Gurley in '19 were the only top backs, and they were both 3rd in rushing in their respective seasons. Lots of running back by committee getting it done. There will ALWAYS be a bunch of 22 year old dumb fucks willing to play ball for NFL rookie deals. Because they dont want to flip fucking burgers. 

 

[closetohumping 17,453]

Problem with running backs is that there are a lot of them that can play.  Daniel

jones is clearly better with Barkley but saw a star that cousins, burrow and Herbert were better without their star running backs.  
 

vikings don’t lose much when mattison is in there and we saw pollard vs zeke.  Pacheco vs CEH.  
 

I know some of the sentiment is focused on Daniel Jones sucking but there aren’t a lot of great qbs.  
 

 

The rams paid Gurley a ton of money only to watch him flame out.  
 

Barkley’s ypc is pretty average

Edited July 20, 2023 by closetohumping

[Pam Cummings 9,646]

7 hours ago, Blotto said:

Lulz. Are you under the impression that the hundreds of college running backs graduating every year will refuse that NFL payday so they can get a jump on that cherry gig at Enterprise Rental Car? Wins and losses will largely keep things in check, and if teams decide that not having a top running back on the roster is costing them wins, they will adjust accordingly. But right now, its not really hurting teams. Consider the last 5 superbowls...I believe Mixon in '22 and Gurley in '19 were the only top backs, and they were both 3rd in rushing in their respective seasons. Lots of running back by committee getting it done. There will ALWAYS be a bunch of 22 year old dumb fucks willing to play ball for NFL rookie deals. Because they dont want to flip fucking burgers. 

 

Thats just arrogant. We know what playing football in the NFL does to a person's body. People aren't going to be willing to do that unless they feel fairly compensated for it. Period. And if they went to college and have any sort of opportunity then i seriously doubt burger flipping is their best option. I just don't wanna hear yall lamenting how bad that position sucks in 10 years when good players inevitably don't play it anymore.

[LTtxfan 49,309]

12 hours ago, Hammerin Hank said:

It just seems wrong to ask the RBs to take bottom dollar while also asking them to throw their bodies in front of a 250 lb defender running full speed to keep the $40 million a year QB from getting hurt 

Interesting interview... Says the modern day rule changes that protect QBs has helped devalue RBs...

Marshall Faulk Bashes the “Egregious” Disrespect Being Shown to NFL RBs | The Rich Eisen Show

[TonyTexas 10,518]

The average NFL salary for RBs is $1.5M/yr. and I’m supposed to fell sorry for them?

[BurntOrange&White 39,934]

Top 20 highest paid RB

 

Once McCaffrey, Kamara, Henry, and Chubb come off their deals, which I believe will be the last of those kinds of running back deals you see the pay will be around 5-8 million for top running backs on average. Some of them who are threats in the receiving game IMO could get to that 8-10 million range. Gone are the days of 13-17 million dollar running backs. Those highlighted will be on tags this season. So with the the tag they're making 3 million more for this season than James Conner. 

Edited July 20, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[BurntOrange&White 39,934]

14 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Saquon is going to make about 50% less than market. The tag almost always will provide a worse opportunity, teams wouldn't use it otherwise.

See above

[LTtxfan 49,309]

What does the chart look like for WRs @BurntOrange&White ??

[BurntOrange&White 39,934]

1 minute ago, LTtxfan said:

What does the chart look like for WRs @BurntOrange&White ??

 

Guys like Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, etc are about to get PAID! Receiver is just the more premium offensive position outside of QB with the way the game is played now days. Better to spend all you can on two receivers and potentially a 3rd than to waste 5-8 million on a high end RB.

[Pam Cummings 9,646]

37 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

The average NFL salary for RBs is $1.5M/yr. and I’m supposed to fell sorry for them?

That has to last them the rest of their life. That isn't a lifetime deal. This isn't a Bobby Bonilla situation.

 

Do you understand what type of money and training goes into making a body ready for the rigors of the NFL? The medical expenses incurred due to the damage your body takes? Unlike the money, that damage is for life. 1.5 mil is chump change.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Pam Cummings

[Vic Mackey 47,090]

 
Guys like Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, etc are about to get PAID! Receiver is just the more premium offensive position outside of QB with the way the game is played now days. Better to spend all you can on two receivers and potentially a 3rd than to waste 5-8 million on a high end RB.

Exactly. And Dallas still hasn't learned from their Zeke mistake. They doubled down on stupid and now are paying Pollard a ton of money for a RB and he's coming off a serious injury and might never be the same. Pollard is good but he isn't that good and you can find RBs in any draft and free agency.

[LTtxfan 49,309]

5 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

5-8 mill for top RBs on avg. 8-10mill those that are receiving threats.    Gone are the days of 13-17 million dollar running backs. Those highlighted will be on tags this season. So with the the tag they're making 3 million more for this season than James Conner. 

Yeah this Zeke contract was terrible...

 

[BurntOrange&White 39,934]

What's funny about all this bitching about Saquan is he's making top 10 money for a guy who has only played 2 full seasons in his career. If he gets tagged next year the payment is 22 million which makes all this so much more stupid. 

 

 

The ESPN talking heads were saying that basically the analytics say that the running back position seldom produces to the value of their second contract. Yes there are exceptions over time to that but in general their production decreases once they get to the second contract.

Edited July 20, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Vic Mackey 47,090]

The average NFL salary for RBs is $1.5M/yr. and I’m supposed to fell sorry for them?

You aren't supposed to be comparing it to the every day person's salary. For the beating they take, the training they put in and the wear and tear of the season. Not to mention how violent the game is, the non guaranteed contracts where you can be cut at any time unlike other sports and the extremely short shelf life, there's a reason they are up in arms as a collective group.

[Pam Cummings 9,646]

20 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

What's funny about all this bitching about Saquan is he's making top 10 money for a guy who has only played 2 full seasons in his career. If he gets tagged next year the payment is 22 million which makes all this so much more stupid. 

 

 

The ESPN talking heads were saying that basically the analytics say that the running back position seldom produces to the value of their second contract. Yes there are exceptions over time to that but in general their production decreases once they get to the second contract.

I'm actually not saying that you should give RBs a huge second contract. Just that they need to be paid fairly during their prime years, where they are producing and helping a team win. Not locked up on cheap rookie deals.

[BurntOrange&White 39,934]

1 minute ago, Pam Cummings said:

I'm actually not saying that you should give RBs a huge second contract. Just that they need to be paid fairly during their prime years, where they are producing and helping a team win. Not locked up on cheap rookie deals.

Bijan, because of where he was drafted, is already top 15 in the league without ever playing a down in the league.

[Vic Mackey 47,090]

The Gruden leaked emails really led to the demise of Snyder lol