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2023 NBA Draft

Mitch Cumsteen

By Mitch Cumsteen
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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18547

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I didn't see a thread on this so I thought I would get it started...

The Wemby hype has only begun. It's going to be overwhelming but when you're billed as the best prospect in twenty years, if not ever, then it comes with the territory. Prepare your news feed because it's going to get much worse.

He is on the cover of Sports Illustrated this week, I guess. Do they still physically print and mail Sports Illustrated? I have no idea.

https://www.si.com/nba/2023/02/21/victor-wembanyama-best-nba-prospect-generation-daily-cover

 

Scoot Henderson is the presumptive #2 - explosive lead guard playing in the G-league getting a lot of Derrick Rose comparisons. There's supposedly a big gap between Scoot and the next tier of prospects.

Alabama's Brandon Miller has been mocked in most places at #3, but supplying the murder weapon in a breathtakingly senseless crime is generally frowned upon by NBA scouts. This is going to be fascinating to watch going forward. Somebody will take a chance on him at some point in the draft as long as he's not behind bars. Dudes that big who can shoot it like him and handle do not grow on trees.

After Miller... things get a little murkier. And I guess they just got mas murkier with the latest from Tuscaloosa. There's the Thompson twins - Amen and Auser. There's the two kids that play for Arkansas in Nick Smith Jr and Anthony Black, and then a whole bunch of guys worth keeping an eye on.  Jerace Walker from Cougar High, Cameron Whitmore from Nova. Keyonte George from Baylor. And on and on.

Here's the latest player rankings from nbadraft.net. I have a difficult time believing that Gradey Dick goes #5 but he can definitely stroke it. And yes, typing the phrase "Gradey Dick can stroke it" is beyond creepy. This mock also has Keegan Murray's identical twin going 6. I just don't see that happening, but whatever. It seems there's a lot of long wings that can shoot the three in this draft. I guess that's the evolution of the game. 

1 arrow_green.gif +1 Victor-Wenbenyama.jpgVictorWembanyama 7-2 210 C Metropolitans 92 2004
2 arrow_green.gif +1 Scoot-Henderson-2.pngScootHenderson 6-2 195 PG G-League Fr.
3 arrow_green.gif +1 brandon-miller-hd.jpgBrandonMiller 6-9 200 SF Alabama Fr.
4 arrow_green.gif +1 Anthony-Black-1.jpgAnthonyBlack 6-7 200 PG/SG Arkansas Fr.
5 arrow_green.gif +1 Screenshot_20220719-122628_Chrome.jpgGradeyDick 6-8 205 SG Kansas Fr.
6 arrow_green.gif +1 Kris-Murray.pngKrisMurray 6-8 220 SF/PF Iowa Jr.
7 arrow_green.gif +3 Nick-Smith.jpgNickSmith 6-5 185 PG/SG Arkansas Fr.
8 arrow_no_change.gif Amen-Thompson-1.pngAmenThompson 6-7 200 SG Overtime Elite Fr.
9 arrow_no_change.gif Rayan-Rupert.jpgRayanRupert 6-6 185 SG Centre Federal Du Basket-Ball 2004
10 arrow_green.gif +3 GG-Jackson-1.pngGGJackson 6-9 210 PF/C South Carolina Fr.
11 arrow_green.gif +4 maxwell-lewis-hd.jpgMaxwellLewis 6-7 195 SG/SF Pepperdine So.
12 arrow_green.gif +12 Jarace-Walker.jpgJaraceWalker 6-8 235 SF/PF Houston Fr.
13 arrow_red.gif -2 Noah-Clowney.jpgNoahClowney 6-10 210 PF Alabama Fr.
14 arrow_red.gif -2 Keyonte-George.jpgKeyonteGeorge 6-4 185 SG Baylor Fr.
15 arrow_red.gif -1 Ausar-Thompson-2.pngAusarThompson 6-7 205 SG Overtime Elite Fr.
16 arrow_no_change.gif Jett-Howard.jpegJettHoward 6-8 215 SG Michigan Fr.
17 arrow_no_change.gif Cam-Whitmore.jpegCamWhitmore 6-7 230 SF Villanova Fr.
18 arrow_green.gif +9 Leonard-Miller.jpgLeonardMiller 6-10 210 SF G-League Fr.
19 arrow_green.gif +2 Jalen-Wilson.pngJalenWilson 6-7 225 SF/PF Kansas Jr.
20 arrow_green.gif +2 Terquavion-Smith.jpegTerquavionSmith 6-4 165 PG/SG NC State So.
21 arrow_green.gif +18 taylor-hendricks-hd.jpgTaylorHendricks 6-9 210 SF Central Florida Fr.
22 arrow_red.gif -4 Jordan-Hawkins.jpegJordanHawkins 6-5 195 SG UConn So.
23 arrow_red.gif -3 Cason-Wallace.pngCasonWallace 6-4 195 PG Kentucky Fr.
24 arrow_green.gif +5 Julian-Strawther.jpegJulianStrawther 6-7 205 SF Gonzaga Jr.
25 arrow_green.gif +9 Tyrese-Proctor.jpegTyreseProctor 6-5 175 PG Duke Fr.
26 arrow_green.gif +4 Trayce-Jackson-Davis-2.jpgTrayceJackson-Davis 6-9 245 PF Indiana Sr.
27 arrow_red.gif -1 Cidy-Sissoko.pngSidyCissoko 6-8 200 SG Saski Baskonia 2004
28 arrow_red.gif -3 ricky-council-hd.jpgRickyCouncil 6-6 205 SG Arkansas Jr.
29 arrow_green.gif +40 Screen-Shot-2022-08-15-at-3.52.21-PM.pngBilalCoulibaly 6-6   SG/SF Boulogne-Levallois Metropolitans 2004
30 arrow_green.gif +72 brice-sensabaugh-hd.jpgBriceSensabaugh 6-6 235 SF/PF Ohio St. Fr.

More mocks if anybody is interested:

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/2023-nba-mock-draft-50-post-trade-deadline-edition
https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft
https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft
https://sports.yahoo.com/2023-nba-mock-draft-5-first-round-risers-and-full-2-round-predictions-191225967.html

 

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6432

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i haven't watched them closely enough yet, but the college prospects i like best this year are miller (but could be an accessory to murder), george, whitmore, and dick.  before all this murder stuff broke, i would have felt ok if the rockets ended up with the third pick because i think miller can be a player.  but now, outside of the top 2 i'm not nearly as confident in anyone.  the other guys i mentioned i think will have solid nba careers, but i wouldn't say any project to becoming a star.  

in the mid-late first round guys, i do like terquavion smith as i can't imagine he won't at least be an off the bench scorer in the league.

definitely need to watch these guys more in depth over the next month to get a better feel for all of them.

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18547

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With regard to Miller... I guess the information to come out on him late yesterday paints him in a slightly better light. If he doesn't get charged for anything (which appears likely) and he doesn't have any other red flags in his past, it's probably not going to impact his draft position. He's just too talented. And I have to be honest, it was impressive as hell for him to come out last night and drop a career high 41 including the game tying bucket to get to overtime, and then hit the game winner with less than a second on the clock with all the media focus on him. Kid showed some balls. 

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18547

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hoopshype has a consensus mock draft out (pre-Miller shenanigans) combining the rankings of ESPN, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, The Ringer, NBADraft.net, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, Yahoo, SB Nation, and USA TODAY’s For The Win.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock-draft-victor-wembanyama-scoot-henderson-brandon-miller-thompson-twins-jarace-walker-keyonte-george/

Here's what the current consensus lottery looks like:

1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Amen Thompson
4. Brandon Miller
5. Ausar Thompson
6. Nick Smith
7. Cameron Whitmore
8. Anthony Black
9. Jarace Walker
10. Keyonte George
11. Cason Wallace
12. Gradey Dick
13. Jett Howard
14. GG Jackson

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11133

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Yeah, the top 4-5 are all potential all-star players to me, depending on how they develop. It's a good year to tank, lots of good talent with a ton of upside.

Miller is a conundrum, he's obviously a very talented scorer and would be a top 5 pick any year. But he could fall a bit due to the legal trouble, and end up on a decent team like New Orleans, thanks to the Lakers pick. It's going to be an interesting draft.

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  • 1 month later...
Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18547

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26 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

someone is going to get gradey dick in the later portion of the lottery and all they're going to have on their hands is a 6'7" (and growing?) sharpshooter who is more athletic than he seems, can score in multiple ways, and will play in the league for 15 years. 

Probably so but he was absolutely invisible for 38 minutes when I saw him live in Austin. He's going to have to go to the right place where he won't have to create for himself. 

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HookEm

HookEm 2463

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46 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

someone is going to get gradey dick in the later portion of the lottery and all they're going to have on their hands is a 6'7" (and growing?) sharpshooter who is more athletic than he seems, can score in multiple ways, and will play in the league for 15 years. 

So you are saying someone is about to get their hands on a growing dick that is a prolific shooter?  Welp, I guess that is good if you are into it.

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Kermit

Kermit 3156

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1 hour ago, HookEm said:

So you are saying someone is about to get their hands on a growing dick that is a prolific shooter?  Welp, I guess that is good if you are into it.

It’s better than being a shorter than average Dick who dribbles when he should be shooting.

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

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1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Probably so but he was absolutely invisible for 38 minutes when I saw him live in Austin. He's going to have to go to the right place where he won't have to create for himself. 

I think we can give a him a pass playing on the road against a top 5 team - in what wasn't a big game for Kansas. Brandon Miller shot 13/62 his last 4 games of the season. 

Dick basically profiles as a better version of Redick and I think he'll have a similar career. 

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HookEm

HookEm 2463

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21 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I think we can give a him a pass playing on the road against a top 5 team - in what wasn't a big game for Kansas.

If Kansas treated either of their last two games against us seriously, they would have been playing in Kansas City for the Sweet 16 and their season would have looked a lot different.

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18547

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

I think we can give a him a pass playing on the road against a top 5 team - in what wasn't a big game for Kansas. Brandon Miller shot 13/62 his last 4 games of the season. 

Dick basically profiles as a better version of Redick and I think he'll have a similar career. 

He seems longer and more athletic than Redick to me. He's probably got 4 or 5 inches on him. Much higher upside on defense. Would like to see what his measurements are. 

His shooting alone makes him a high floor pick. He's got one skill that you know will translate. 

And it wasn't so much that he had a bad game in Austin or didn't shoot it well, he was just uninvolved. Not rebounding. Not impacting the game on defense. Not really moving without the ball to get open. Just invisible. They started running some actions for him late and he made shots, but it was like they finally remembered they had a lottery pick on their team with about 5 minutes left in the game. 

 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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ftr, what i'm trying to say about dick is that he's one of the safest, most predictable picks in the draft. with other players- even guys who will be drafted ahead of him- there's plenty of questions about what they will become as pros. with gradey dick, you know exactly what you're getting. there will be no surprises. he's made for the modern nba to be a solid starter on a title contender. he's essentially a can't-miss pick in my eyes, unless the organization that drafts him sets him up to fail. 

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Brothahorn

Brothahorn 10087

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ftr, what i'm trying to say about dick is that he's one of the safest, most predictable picks in the draft. with other players- even guys who will be drafted ahead of him- there's plenty of questions about what they will become as pros. with gradey dick, you know exactly what you're getting. there will be no surprises. he's made for the modern nba to be a solid starter on a title contender. he's essentially a can't-miss pick in my eyes, unless the organization that drafts him sets him up to fail. 
So basically, you love Dick.

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17431

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1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Lulz was just reading an article that mentioned OKC's slim chance. Holmgren plus Wembanyama in the same front court would be a trip. Silver will probably have them remove the OKC balls from the hopper.

I wish they still did the balls.  Thsi way is sort of sterile and boring

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Murfdogg21

Murfdogg21 4412

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4 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Heard they get an accounting company to do it so it's very legit.  For me, just throw the dang ping pong balls in and do it live

Yeah until they do it live and let randoms pull out the balls, there will always be questions about the legitimacy. Everyone knew it was rigged for Patrick Ewing to NYK. Seemed rigged for Lebron to Cleveland, maybe Yao to Houston (I think Houston had the highest Asian population among teams in the top 10 picks plus were willing to go with Asian font jerseys for 20 years). I don’t know what the most corrupt storyline would be for this lottery, the Bulls or Jordan Hornets?

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17431

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22 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Yeah until they do it live and let randoms pull out the balls, there will always be questions about the legitimacy. Everyone knew it was rigged for Patrick Ewing to NYK. Seemed rigged for Lebron to Cleveland, maybe Yao to Houston (I think Houston had the highest Asian population among teams in the top 10 picks plus were willing to go with Asian font jerseys for 20 years). I don’t know what the most corrupt storyline would be for this lottery, the Bulls or Jordan Hornets?

Remember rod thorn got the first pick with the nets as well?   Yea to me even when they use a big five accounting firm doesn’t mean it’s totally legit. 

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18547

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20 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

If that were to actually happen, then they would seriously have to rethink the lottery odds. There would be such an epic meltdown.

With regard to the actual draft... beyond Wembanyama, this feels like more of a boom or bust draft than I can remember. I'm not nearly as in love with Scoot Henderson as the scouts tell me I should be. I'm not blown away by his g-league season. The Thompsons have played against absolutely nobody and can't shoot at all. These two could be the next Michael Kidd Gilchrist. Miller's off the court decision making makes Ja Morant look like David Robinson. Really weird top to this draft class.

 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49141

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On 4/17/2023 at 6:22 PM, Message Board User said:

This forum would go ballistic if the lottery played out like this - all 3 Texas teams getting screwed.

Yeah you're right -- this result (below ) would be a terrible for all the Texas teams.  I'm ok with the Lottery odds being used to determine the first 2 spots, but Detroit, Rockets and Spurs should all end up receiving no worse than a Top 5 pick...

 

Screenshot_20230516-155650_kindlephoto-304519.png.05e65f4cc6287444cc5a7235a0bcf00f.png

Edited by LTtxfan
typo
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49141

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8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I’m confused. I thought the top three teams could drop no worse than 3 spots?

"The current system also does not guarantee the worst teams get one of the top four picks.

The Pistons, with the worst record, can have no worse than the No. 5 pick. Houston could end up sixth and San Antonio could fall as far as No. 7. Picks No. 5-14 go in the inverse order of the teams’ finish in the standings."

https://www.chron.com/sports/article/how-does-the-nba-lottery-work-and-who-has-the-18097984.php

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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1 hour ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

The new lottery confuses the fuck out of me. I don’t even ask anymore because I feel dumber after someone explains it. I just stick to watching basketball and leave the math nerds to talking about the CBA and contracts and draft lottery odds.

That really reflects poorly on you. But not at all surprising. 

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