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SEC Catch-all Thread


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On 10/21/2024 at 10:03 AM, Tonesky said:

A huge Gator alumni friend posted "Welcome to the SEC" to his social media.  WTF - GA is and always has been Florida's biggest rival.  Seems to me the equivalent of UF moving to the Big 12, and 7 games into the season and clearly a good team, getting embarrassed at home by OU.  There is zero chance any us us would proclaim "Welcome to the Big 12."  But, SEC, SEC, SEC....  Fuck that shit.  And, fuck OU!

That's not totally true, whenever OU is playing I do have a rooting interest. I root for the meteor to hit the stadium.

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Brought to you by Mike Farrell Sport.  Comes to a different conclusion than what you would think, considering the love Farrell obviously doesn't have for UT.

Is Texas in Over Its Head in the SEC?

Is Texas in Over Its Head in the SEC?

By Brett Daniels

The Texas Longhorns have long been the standard in College Football for doing less with more. The flagship university of a state that is rich in both resources (oil and gas money) and talent should not go decades without a conference championship or playing for a National Championship. The hiring of Steve Sarkisian from Alabama coincided with the announcement that Texas and Oklahoma would leave the Big 12 for the SEC and produced a shift in program culture and philosophy.


As an assistant at Alabama, Sarkisian had a front-row seat to how life in the SEC would be for Texas and knew that the recruiting focus and on the field philosophy would have to change to be competitive. The SEC is a “line of scrimmage” league where even the teams at the bottom of the conference have NFL-caliber players on either side of the line. The Big 12 has always been viewed as more of a “finesse” league where teams threw the ball 50 times a game and played very little defense.

This shift in focus was born out in recruiting where the 2021 class ranked 15th overall and would have been 7th best in the SEC, 2022 was 5th overall and 4th in the SEC, 2023 was 3rd overall and 3rd in the SEC, and the 2024 class was 6th overall and 3rd in the SEC. The influx of talent allowed Texas to win the Big 12 in 2023 for the first time since 2009 and earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.


What has Texas done so far in the SEC?
As a member of the SEC so far, the Longhorns have beaten who they were supposed to in a Mississippi State team that ranks near the bottom of the conference in every metric and an Oklahoma team that is offensively challenged. Texas did not fare as well in their match-up against the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday, losing 30-15 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the score would indicate.

Georgia thoroughly dominated on both lines of scrimmage, shutting down the Longhorn rushing attack (only 29 yards on 27 carries), harassing both Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning on defense, protecting Carson Beck, and opening holes for the rushing game on offense. There were several instances where the speed of the Georgia defense blew up plays that had gone for big gains in previous weeks against other opponents.


In the coming week the Longhorns will face a Vanderbilt team that has an Alabama upset to its credit but ranks toward the bottom of the conference in both offense (5.77 YPP/12th) and defense (5.62 YPP/14th), a Florida team that is better than their record would indicate, ranking near the top of the conference offensively (6.81 YPP/3rd) and near the bottom defensively (5.21 YPP/11th).

Texas will finish out the season against old Southwest Conference foe Arkansas in Fayetteville where the Hogs rank in the middle of the conference in both offense (6.31 YPP/9th) and defense (5.22 YPP/12th), Kentucky a team at the bottom of the conference in both offense (5.02 YPP/14th) and defense (5.58 YPP/13th), and in-state rival Texas A&M (6.23 YPP offense/10th) and (5.10 YPP defense/10th).

Texas should win out against these teams and finish 7-1 in conference which would put them in the mix to play in the SEC Championship Game and almost assure a home playoff game at worst. 

To answer the question, Texas is not over its head, at least not yet. There were always going to be struggles with the SEC's increased interior play, but only Georgia has taken advantage of it. If anything, Texas overperformed early and were aided by other results and an overrated Michigan team to become the No. 1 team, but that was never sustainable.

In fact, at fellow SEC newcomer Oklahoma just shows how not over-their-head Texas has been.

 

 

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Idk where to put this and fully expect it to work itself out, but let’s say there is a 4 way tie between UGA, Texas, A&M and LSU all with 1 SEC loss. Who plays in the SEC Championship?

UGA 1 loss to Bama

Texas 1 loss to UGA

A&M 1 loss to Texas

LSU 1 loss to A&M

https://storage.googleapis.com/secsports-prod/upload/2024/08/26/cf507314-3ae5-4a15-a0ce-ce8039e51f6e.pdf

If I read this shit right, I believe it goes to the 4th tiebreaker: “Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams”.

Impossible to know how that plays out until you have the final full season standings, but hard to imagine that breaking in our favor with UF, ou, UK and Miss St on the schedule). Although all it takes is for one team to break clear on that tiebreaker and then you start back over with the first tiebreaker with the 3 teams that are left)

 

But either way, WTF does the 5th tiebreaker mean:  “capped relative scoring margin per SportsSource Analytics versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams”

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8 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Idk where to put this and fully expect it to work itself out, but let’s say there is a 4 way tie between UGA, Texas, A&M and LSU all with 1 SEC loss. Who plays in the SEC Championship?

UGA 1 loss to Bama

Texas 1 loss to UGA

A&M 1 loss to Texas

LSU 1 loss to A&M

https://storage.googleapis.com/secsports-prod/upload/2024/08/26/cf507314-3ae5-4a15-a0ce-ce8039e51f6e.pdf

If I read this shit right, I believe it goes to the 4th tiebreaker: “Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams”.

Impossible to know how that plays out until you have the final full season standings, but hard to imagine that breaking in our favor with UF, ou, UK and Miss St on the schedule). Although all it takes is for one team to break clear on that tiebreaker and then you start back over with the first tiebreaker with the 3 teams that are left)

 

But either way, WTF does the 5th tiebreaker mean:  “capped relative scoring margin per SportsSource Analytics versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams”

Yeah I think most of the 3+ team ties would not break in our favor due to our weaker conference schedule. Even if it’s a tie at 7-1 with us, Georgia, and A&M, we would likely not go to Atlanta.

But, if we CAN get to 7-1, we’ll be in great shape for playoff seeding. 

Edited by LonghornSean
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EDIT: should have quoted @UTexasFight post from above, where he was curious about the tiebreakers if 4 teams end up 7-1.  That is what is modeled below.  NOT what I want to happen nor what I think will happen.

Assuming the below is correct...  Texas ends up 4th.

https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb

image.thumb.png.5dcd75e3257dd17df77f48735f93cb3a.png

image.thumb.png.c7219177b7ae053269e8f354e7ea2d8a.png

Edited by boilerhorn
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24 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

Assuming the below is correct...  Texas ends up 4th.

https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb

image.thumb.png.5dcd75e3257dd17df77f48735f93cb3a.png

image.thumb.png.c7219177b7ae053269e8f354e7ea2d8a.png

Yes but this assumes over the next 4 weeks there are no more upsets. That is insane. 

LSU is not a lock to beat Alabama in two weeks 

A&M is not a lock to beat South Carolina next week 

Then you have all the random winning % games. Maybe State beats Ole Miss and that helps out (“conference performance winning %), or vandy has another upset. 

And even if all that’s happens if we finish with 1 loss and miss the championship game we are likely the 5th seed for the playoffs. I can handle that. 

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6 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

Well, of course.  The question I addressed was "what happens if 4 teams are 7-1 in conference play?"  It was not, "what do I think is going to happen?"

I should have quoted the specific post.

Makes sense, I think the results show “what happens if these teams finish 4-1 AND there are no other upsets in the SEC”.

Using that same calculator these teams can all finish 7-1 and we can make it depending on what happens in the other games (I just played around with random results for the other games for a second). 

image.thumb.png.0edbf8ee6849d4d3465ef214250ab7f5.png

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On 10/22/2024 at 5:23 PM, boilerhorn said:

NSIAP

 

May be the greatest commercial ever done, although Robert said it brought him zero extra business other than t shirt sales.  This came out around 08-09 and my son had a wedding in Chattanooga and he and a buddy went there on the way. Said Robert was nice but had no time for gawkers.  Said the sales chick was pretty rough in person.  Got the t shirt

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1 hour ago, hornbri said:

Makes sense, I think the results show “what happens if these teams finish 4-1 AND there are no other upsets in the SEC”.

Using that same calculator these teams can all finish 7-1 and we can make it depending on what happens in the other games (I just played around with random results for the other games for a second). 

image.thumb.png.0edbf8ee6849d4d3465ef214250ab7f5.png

 

Was telling a friend that I don’t know how it will play out, but I see it being Texas vs LSU in the SEC title game. 

 

How it gets there, fuck if I know.

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Other than bragging rights for winning the conference our first year, I’d be completely fine with missing that game .

especially if we lost a tiebreaker after beating A&M.

Nov 30 and Dec 20
Or Dec 6 and Dec 31

I think I like the 20 day break going from A&M to army-like team
Instead of 25 day break getting beat up by UGA (win or lose) and having 25 days off but having to come out sharp against much better playoff team. Especially with how shitty we’ve been in the first half most of this year.

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12 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

“Wait til I call my daddy about you!”

”I doubt Georgia cares.”

Ouch 

Truth hurts. Hopefully we can get some pay back. Just good-natured fun at the SEC 

Enjoy his SEC videos. Takes a shot at every team. Loved the Florida "guy" knocking on the Georgia door and saying "Atlanta PD open up"

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3 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

Truth hurts. Hopefully we can get some pay back. Just good-natured fun at the SEC 

Enjoy his SEC videos. Takes a shot at every team. Loved the Florida "guy" knocking on the Georgia door and saying "Atlanta PD open up"

I prefer SEC Roll Call over SEC Shorts. Matt Mitchell reminds me of my childhood friend who looks and acts just like Mitchell.

The Florida guy is a perfect portrayal of Gator football. Shit cracks me up every time.

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On 10/27/2024 at 10:59 AM, UTexasFight said:

Other than bragging rights for winning the conference our first year, I’d be completely fine with missing that game .

especially if we lost a tiebreaker after beating A&M.

Nov 30 and Dec 20
Or Dec 6 and Dec 31

I think I like the 20 day break going from A&M to army-like team
Instead of 25 day break getting beat up by UGA (win or lose) and having 25 days off but having to come out sharp against much better playoff team. Especially with how shitty we’ve been in the first half most of this year.

Though I very much prefer winning the SEC championship, another advantage of being number 5 besides playing #12 in the first round is playing the worst conference champ (#4) in round two (BYU/ISU) whereas #1 has to play #3 from BIG/SEC. There is no guarantee we’ll be #5 even if we win out though. 

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9 hours ago, Fondren & Main said:

I really enjoy listening to these illiterate hayseeds call into the Paul Finebaum show.  Hell, half call in drunker than Cooter Brown.  It's highly entertaining.

You're a sick, sick man.  I can't make it 10 seconds when they start taking calls.  It's like I'm back in 1990 with Austin public access and Alex Jones.  I used to prank call him with my friends when we were in like 6th grade.  From what I've seen with Finebaum's "callers" there isn't much difference.

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