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The Austin / Rainey St / Lake Serial Killer

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40678

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 4/15/2023 at 7:29 PM, Nicole44 said:

Park rangers and police “presence” man…not all of these deaths are related but you’d have to be a dumb fuck not to see any similarities. (Disclaimer: I don’t think every case is related OK!)

6B37F6E5-1742-457E-AF4A-52C422854BCC.jpeg

Guess I’m safe then.

 

 

 

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MissingInAction
MissingInAction

I remember the good ole shaggy days when a few posters were convinced I was a psychopathic murderer. Boy they felt so silly that they stopped posting and disappeared entirely.

Goredho
Goredho

We all know how this is going to end.

Deej
Deej

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Nicole44

Nicole44 22023

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They finally identified the body found on   Saturday:

“First responders found the victim, identified as 30-year-old John Christopher Hays-Clark, in the water and declared him dead shortly after arriving on the scene.”

I’m not on FB or Instagram but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has dark hair… he fits the age range of the other victims that have been identified. So basically if there is a killer two weeks is as long as he/she can wait to kill again? 

If y’all find something on this one just post it here I guess…gonna jump intro he Twitter cesspool…see if anyone posted anything more about the victim.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25399

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27 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

They finally identified the body found on   Saturday:

“First responders found the victim, identified as 30-year-old John Christopher Hays-Clark, in the water and declared him dead shortly after arriving on the scene.”

I’m not on FB or Instagram but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has dark hair… he fits the age range of the other victims that have been identified. So basically if there is a killer two weeks is as long as he/she can wait to kill again? 

If y’all find something on this one just post it here I guess…gonna jump intro he Twitter cesspool…see if anyone posted anything more about the victim.

African American according to this post. 

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104448

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8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Cop long-game, revenge killing for cussing them out on a scooter?

https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/man-arrested-after-trying-to-evade-police-on-a-scooter

Wait....he was one of those scooter-riding shitheads blowing through red lights left and right?

I may just have to withhold judgment/concern here......

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1621

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11 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

In the previous 30 years there were 3 drownings; the increase isn’t statistically significant.

 

Not so fast my friend.

Based on mostly liner increase in the Greater Austin's population from 500K in 1993 to to 2.2M I pulled a seemingly reasonable 3x frequency increase out of my, um, hat, and put the question to AI.

 

I asked Google's AI (bard.google.com)

If an event happens 3 times in 30 years and then 8 times in 10 months, and we have a null hypothesis that "the frequency of the event should be 3 times higher in the 10-month period", and an alternative hypothesis as "the frequency of the event more than three times higher in the 10-month period than in the 30-year period" and if we use a use a chi-squared test, is that statistically significant?
 

Quote

Yes, that is statistically significant. The chi-squared test is a statistical test that is used to compare the observed frequencies of events to the expected frequencies of events. In this case, the observed frequency of the event is 8 in 10 months, and the expected frequency of the event is 1 in 10 months. The chi-squared test statistic is 36.1, which is significant at the p < 0.001 level. This means that the probability of getting 8 or more events in 10 months if the frequency of the event is 3 times higher in both periods is less than 0.001%. Therefore, we can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the frequency of the event is more than 3 times higher in the 10-month period than in the 30-year period.

Here are the steps on how to calculate the chi-squared test statistic:

  1. Calculate the expected frequency of the event in each period.
  2. Calculate the squared difference between the observed and expected frequencies for each period.
  3. Divide each squared difference by the expected frequency.
  4. Add up the chi-squared values for each period.

In this case, the expected frequency of the event in the 30-year period is 0.01, and the expected frequency of the event in the 10-month period is 0.3. The squared difference between the observed and expected frequencies for the 30-year period is 0.009, and the squared difference between the observed and expected frequencies for the 10-month period is 14.44. The chi-squared value for the 30-year period is 0.009 / 0.01 = 0.9, and the chi-squared value for the 10-month period is 14.44 / 0.3 = 48.13. The total chi-squared value is 36.1.

As you can see, the chi-squared value is significant at the p < 0.001 level. This means that we can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the frequency of the event is more than 3 times higher in the 10-month period than in the 30-year period.

 

Bottom line, the math works out and AI has confirmed Austin has a Serial Killer. 

 

 

Next Question for the AI:

If Austin Texas had a serial killer in the Rainey Street district, what should they be called?

Quote

I would not give a serial killer a nickname. It is disrespectful to the victims and their families.

On second thought screw that AI crap

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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Well, we could make the killer's name an anagram for "Town Lake" like "Awoken" or if you wanna use "Ladybird Johnson" you can go with "Dishonorably" Lake Killer.

All I know is we should all quit sneaking down to the lake for sexual indiscretions with other counselors, lest the hockey playing murderer is on the loose.  I mean paddle boarding murderer is on the loose.  

Be advised, to fuck with investigators, this summer---a body will end up very far upriver like toward the Damn/MoPac bridge.  He's gonna tow it there under a crew scull in plain sight to avoid suspicion.  I mean, that's what I've heard on Nicole's Podcast, "Only Murders in the Rainey"   (we're workshopping the title), basically it stars Acevedo, Adler, and Nicole as kind of a Selena Gomez type with same amount of sass.

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BillyGoatHill

BillyGoatHill 4276

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23 minutes ago, Jerry Callo said:

Austin Serial Killer being covered by the news, so it has to be real.

Daily Mail must be having 2nd graders write their articles. 

Plus, I  did not know that Lady Bird Lake was 1.8 miles from Rainey St. Apparently the lake is only the body of water right next to Longhorn Dam (got it right this time for you English majors). The water that is 2-300 yards from Rainey is the Colorado River. 🤷‍♂️

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5516

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1 hour ago, BillyGoatHill said:

Daily Mail must be having 2nd graders write their articles. 

Plus, I  did not know that Lady Bird Lake was 1.8 miles from Rainey St. Apparently the lake is only the body of water right next to Longhorn Dam (got it right this time for you English majors). The water that is 2-300 yards from Rainey is the Colorado River. 🤷‍♂️

I don't know how far from Rainey St "Lady Bird Lake" is because I do not know what that is. I know that TOWN LAKE is the body of water that is a few hundred yards from Rainey that flows down to Longhorn dam.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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Well done detective, so these man are drowning because they are walking along...looking for Lady Bird Lake but that damn water in Town Lake keeps getting in the way of their middle-Earth walking adventure?  ;)  

If nothing else, the serial killer (and spoiler alert, it is one) has given me a rebooted interest in our waterway nomenclature.  I'm no Democrat but I think LadyBird's dedication to environmental protection is as admirable as John Muir.  But it's always been the Colorado River turned into Town Lake for a stretch.  

But it's really just a tepid bacteria frappe' filled with radioactive fish, Oldsmobiles, and a few dead bodies.  You know, water recreation 'n shit.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89353

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16 hours ago, Orange&amp;White said:

I don't know how far from Rainey St "Lady Bird Lake" is because I do not know what that is. I know that TOWN LAKE is the body of water that is a few hundred yards from Rainey that flows down to Longhorn dam.

Season 9 Thank You GIF by The Office

16 hours ago, YGIFS said:

But it's really just a tepid bacteria frappe' filled with radioactive fish, Oldsmobiles, and a few dead bodies.  You know, water recreation 'n shit.

"a few"

The Office What GIF

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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A childhood friend of my father's who happened to be quite Italian from in Chicago.  He married one of Sam Giancana's daughters (the man who ran Chicago in the 50's and 60's).  Anyway, I had seen some mob/mafia movie where they dispose of a body.  And I'm like 7 or 8 and a real wise-ass (just like now).  So I ask Uncle Jimmy  about whether or not bad guys would really drive out nowhere to some big lake to dump a dead guy.  And instead of being annoyed or offended, Uncle Jimmy calmly told me something to the effect of, "No kid, that crap ain't real.  You dump 'em right into the water in town because the cops won't believe people when they say they saw you throwing a body into the middle of the Chicago River 'cause nobody's that dumb to do that."  I was whisked away to my room after that.  Years later, I would finally appreciate what the term "hiding in plain sight" actually meant.  There is a whole other world that runs right between all of us.  And sometimes it heads down to Town Lake for a drink and a swim.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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Yeah, we're just days away from KXAN showing Nicole's interrogation video from APD 

"Rain, what?  Rain-y Street?  Never heard of it.  Is that here in Austin or where?  Now you're saying Rainey District?  Is it a district or a street, I'm confused.  I know there's a Lake in Town, named for Austin, Lake Austin.  Yeah, I know that place, we go boating there sometimes.  What is a Town Lake?  I'm not being combative, I'm cooperating without my lawyer present.  You're just throwing around a lot of different terms to try and trip me up, I get it.  The Hike 'n Bike trail?  Nope, I'm more of a runner than hiker or biker.  Sorry.  Do I what now?  Do I swim?  Phone call please." 

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14071

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1 minute ago, YGIFS said:

Yeah, we're just days away from KXAN showing Nicole's interrogation video from APD 

"Rain, what?  Rain-y Street?  Never heard of it.  Is that here in Austin or where?  Now you're saying Rainey District?  Is it a district or a street, I'm confused.  I know there's a Lake in Town, named for Austin, Lake Austin.  Yeah, I know that place, we go boating there sometimes.  What is a Town Lake?  I'm not being combative, I'm cooperating without my lawyer present.  You're just throwing around a lot of different terms to try and trip me up, I get it.  The Hike 'n Bike trail?  Nope, I'm more of a runner than hiker or biker.  Sorry.  Do I what now?  Do I swim?  Phone call please." 

Cops: man... this chick shows up every time we pull a body out. Probably not related. 

TxTow: Nope, not related at all. 

FBI: .... (waiting by the phone)

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89353

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8 hours ago, YGIFS said:

Years later, I would finally appreciate what the term "hiding in plain sight" actually meant.  There is a whole other world that runs right between all of us.  And sometimes it heads down to Town Lake for a drink and a swim.

Yeah, definitely don't drink from the water, or let your dog drink.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/city-warns-of-potential-blue-green-algae-on-lady-bird-lake/

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The City of Austin’s Watershed Protection Department said it saw a lot of green algae Monday on Lady Bird Lake, but warned there might be blue-green algae mixed in. While the department said it had not yet tested the algae, people should assume the algae might be toxic and avoid it. According to the city, a harmful algae bloom occurs when Cyanobacteria, also called blue-green algae, produces toxins.

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“Lady Bird Lake experienced a harmful algae bloom in 2019, which sickened and killed several dogs. There have been harmful algae blooms on Lady Bird Lake every year since then, and we also have a fucking serial killer working the area near Rainey Street that has killed several young men, and maybe even more than one killer, and they seem to be declaring or even coordinating their crimes on a local college sports forum,” the city said.

In addition to Lady Bird Lake, the city also advised avoiding algae on Lake Austin as well.

 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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Loewy is a heck of a nice guy, but I'm guessing he lost interest when he found out that a semi-truck didn't hit these men and launch them into the lake---which would of course leave signs of blunt force trauma.  But yeah, to his point...this is insane there have been no full autopsy disclosures as of yet.  

Their constant rationale is that it's dark on Rainey Street as if we haven't had daytime drownings on Lake Austin & Lake Travis when there's thousands and thousands of shitfaced drunk people out there every weekend. 

Perhaps this is all some fucked up training module for the return of Men's Synchronized Swimming to the Olympic Games? 

(I'm not that strong a swimmer)  

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Nicole44

Nicole44 22023

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Odd that in Martin Gutierrez case he had bruising on his face and back of his head. With Christopher Pugh, the only living victim who was found with life altering incapacitating injuries also counts (assuming connected) then it’s bullshit. 
 

The autopsy report 

The medical examiner’s office found that there was a bruise on the lower part of Gutierrez’s head, but no skull fracture or brain injuries.  This injury was listed as “blunt force trauma of the head,” and the ME’s office noted that he had bruising on his scalp. 

They also found generalized swelling in his brain and chest cavities. 

The report stated that Gutierrez had his ID and his banking cards on him when he was found. It added that he was a proficient swimmer, with no history of seizure disorder and no history of illicit or prescription drug use. 

The ME’s office reported that they found alcohol in his blood, but no prescription drugs. 
https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/medical-examiner-man-missing-near-rainey-st-died-of-accidental-drowning/amp/

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Hermanator

Hermanator 6911

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So they found a 2nd body in April?

The wife and I went down to Rainey St on April 1 around 1130 or midnight. I'd had a few drinks starting about 7 pm in East Austin then downtown and when we got to Rainey I felt fine. Went into a bar on Rainey and ordered a Live Oak Hefe. Got the can and went and sat down. About the time I finished the can I started feeling off. Got really lethargic. Didn't feel drunk just had trouble keeping my eyes open. Told the wife so she said let's get back to the hotel and we walked to the car then she drove us back. Back at the hotel about 1:30 am it started to wear off and i fell asleep about 2. 

Next day I read online they had pulled a body out of the river the day before in the afternoon. First I'd heard of this whole thing. 

Bottom line... Bartenders be drugging dudes drinks down there

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Nicole44

Nicole44 22023

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10 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

No prescription drugs, eh? Well, carry on, then. 

The weirdest part about his particular case is he took an Uber to Rainey. According to the group of people he was with he purchased one drink (from eye witness accounts and his bank records) and then the group goes to a second bar and he is immediately denied to be served drinks because he is acting intoxicated and strange. His brother Mitchell has been a huge advocate for more safety there and other measures and has rallied the family members of other victims as well so…I mean that’s why a few pages back myself and other posters were thinking of drugs or a way to dose that a toxicology test wouldn’t pick up. Otherwise I am at a loss. Martin was known to be a good swimmer and had competed in stuff so…some of the other victims as well could swim fairly well. Same shit…almost every time and I assume they are looking for defensive wounds? Or water in the lungs? It doesn’t make sense. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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I remember watching that episode as a kid live, with my friend Jason.  So I think we would have been 9.  I remember not understanding most of the sketches and only laughing when his dad laughed to try to seem cool.  But the synchronized swim pre-record and then when Christopher Guest comes on as their choreographer, I genuinely lost it.  I didn't know that kind of humor was a thing.  That one video kind of set the tack for my sense of humor for the rest of my life.  

"Hey you, I know you!"   And then when Short does the Ed Grimley dance on deck, I fucking cry every damn time.  I didn't notice for decades what a clever little detail...the use the 1964 pictograms from the Tokyo Olympics but obviously had to alter the image to appear like two men instead of women as synchronized swimmers.  

Anyway, I hope this thread provides solace to the victim's families when they read it and think, "I don't know these folks, but they did appear to be trying to find answers about the mysterious Rainey Street deaths.  They were talking about clues and patterns and toxicology reports, then it somehow turned to men's synchronized swimming.  Who the fuck are these monsters?"  

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Hermanator

Hermanator 6911

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41 minutes ago, texastough said:

any link to that clip about synchronized swimming? Couldn't find anything with a google search but I don't know the name of the show/movie

It was SNL from the 80s. Had Harry Shearer, Martin Short and I think Christopher Guest

2 hours ago, Mittens said:

Image

They found the bodies all the way down across that whole residential area? I thought they were finding them right where Rainey St ends into the lake

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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1 hour ago, texastough said:

any link to that clip about synchronized swimming? Couldn't find anything with a google search but I don't know the name of the show/movie

Don’t want to plant an idea in your head to the opposite.  But realize that this was well before any of the Christopher Guest movies we all love know.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89353

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7 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Don’t want to plant an idea in your head to the opposite.  But realize that this was well before any of the Christopher Guest movies we all love know.  

It was a few years after Spinal Tap with Guest and Shearer, but before Shearer joined the Simmons to voice  Mr. Burns, Smithers, Principal Skinner, Ned Flanders, Reverend Lovejoy, Kent Brockman. 

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10394

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On 4/18/2023 at 2:46 PM, BillyGoatHill said:

Daily Mail must be having 2nd graders write their articles. 

Plus, I  did not know that Lady Bird Lake was 1.8 miles from Rainey St. Apparently the lake is only the body of water right next to Longhorn Dam (got it right this time for you English majors). The water that is 2-300 yards from Rainey is the Colorado River. 🤷‍♂️

Lol. Those idiots just used google maps and didn’t realize that the whole stretch back up to Tom Miller is also highlighted. 
ABBF5A51-9DEE-4F8E-B269-934F801FE141.thumb.png.a31b3e43576d65c46095ed3b07e28204.png

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