2023 off year elections and primaries

[David Dennison 18603]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Emotions are still high over October 7.  Extrapolating how people feel about this in November 2023 to how they will vote in November 2024 is not going to get you much except heartburn. 

But those clicks!

[Don Johnson 4744]

11 minutes ago, pacman said:

Voter suppression shenanigans..

 

It wasn't voter suppression.  The county (which is 75% black and run by democrats) is 100% responsible for the ballots, toner, etc.  They have election commissioners that literally have one job.

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/11/07/hinds-county-ballot-shortages-causes-legal-mess-on-election-day/

Quote

 

County leaders reported they ran out of ballots and even of printer toner to print more late Tuesday.

Secretary of State Michael Watson said counties are, by statute, supposed to have on hand at least enough ballots to cover 60% of its registered voters.

“That doesn’t mean they can’t have more, but that’s the minimum,” Watson said. “The counties then decide how they are going to disperse the ballots as needed.”

One problem Hinds ran into, Watson said, was that it has many new precinct lines and split precincts from 2020 redistricting, which required many precincts to have different ballots for people voting in the same precincts.

“They might have 10 people at the precinct who get one ballot style, and then 50 who get another ballot,” Watson said. “I think in some cases, this got flipped, and they ended up with 10 of one type when they needed 50. We were getting calls throughout the day about problems in Hinds, and we then learned there were several lawsuits being prepared.”

The Mississippi Democratic Party asked the Hinds County Chancery Court for an emergency order, which was granted by Chancellor Dewayne Thomas, extending voting for one hour, until 8 p.m., in all county precincts.

But in a separate case filed by Mississippi Votes, a Jackson nonprofit, in Hinds Circuit Court, the state Supreme Court appointed a special judge, former Supreme Court Judge Jess Dickinson, to hear the matter. Dickinson issued an order repeating existing state law: that people who were in line when the polls closed at 7 p.m. could vote if they remained in line.

State statute appears to give the state’s high court the task of appointing judges to hear election-day disputes. It says, “The Supreme Court shall shall make judges available to hear disputes in the county in which the disputes occur, but not judge shall hear disputes in the district, subdistrict or county in which he was elected nor shall any judge hear any dispute in which any potential conflict may arise. Each judge shall be fair and impartial and shall be assigned on that basis.”

Watson said counties run their own elections.

“We have the authority to advise them what the law is, but not to tell them what to do,” Watson said.

 

 

[David Dennison 18603]

 

[Js1 85056]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

But those clicks!

Truth.

The same people who think Arab voters will still be punishing Biden a year from now (against Trump, who wants to expel them all or ban them entirely from entering the U.S.) are in the same category of "no one cares about Dobbs or abortion anymore, it's not even an issue, it's been too long to care anymore"

[LCHorn 2582]

32 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

I always said that if the dems put some money behind Mississippi, they can squeeze out a senate seat and the governor there, they need a Stacy Adams there doing the grass roots for registration 

 

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dems seem to max out around 47-48% of the vote statewide.  Not sure there's much more juice to squeeze in terms of black turnout in Mississippi, without chipping away at the GOP's white vote share.  Which is extremely difficult. Only 23% of adults in Mississippi have a bachelor's degree or higher, and educational attainment is more indicative of voting patterns in the past few cycles (since 2016).  Only WV is worse.  And then you go look at somewhere like Arizona (32%) or Georgia (34%) and see why they are starting to go blue.

I was going to write a rebuttal to this but @Js1 got there before me. 

I think there's this perception that the Democrats nationally are total boobs when it comes to running campaigns, messaging, how to allocate limited resources, etc., and it's unsupported by the lots of evidence to the contrary.  We (in Texas) are probably a little more sensitive to it just because our state party apparatus has been starving to death for 20 years in both money and talent. 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

 

wat

[Js1 85056]

Had to double take that Politico wrote something....good?

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/08/democrats-virginia-win-biden-00126028

Quote

Joe Biden wasn’t on the ballot on Tuesday in Virginia. But Democrats’ big win will bring welcome news on the other side of the Potomac.

Virginia’s off-year elections have long been seen as a bellwether of the broader political environment — and a partial referendum on the incumbent president. So Democrats sweeping control of the state legislature — which both parties believed was in play — will serve as a boost to Biden’s reelection campaign next year.

In a mid-October survey from The Washington Post/Schar School, just 43 percent of registered voters approved of the job Biden was doing and 55 percent disapproved.

That was well below his vote share in the state — and made him significantly less popular than Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, whose 2021 victory was seen as a rebuke by Virginia voters of Democratic-controlled Washington. In the poll, 54 percent approved of the job Youngkin was doing — the highest number measured in this survey for a Virginia governor since Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell in 2013 — and 38 percent disapproved.

Quote

Those districts mirror the areas where much of the fight for control of the White House will take place across the country next year — suburban swing districts that have largely raced away from the GOP since Donald Trump came on the scene.

Democrats won by running a campaign that was intensely focused on abortion rights. Virginia is one of the last states in the South that has any access to the procedure, and Democrats argued that a unified Republican government would threaten that.

Abortion was far and away the top issue in Democratic ads throughout the race, mentioned about 2.5 times more frequently than the party’s second most-talked about issue, education, according to the advertising tracking firm AdImpact.

Tuesday’s wins will likely validate Democrats’ plans to continue to run on abortion next year, a strategy that has given them a series of almost uninterrupted wins since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last summer.

But "Dems don't talk about abortion enough!" 

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Mississippi R’s saw their future tonight and it’s not good for them 

 

45 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

I always said that if the dems put some money behind Mississippi, they can squeeze out a senate seat and the governor there, they need a Stacy Adams there doing the grass roots for registration 

 

29 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Also the Dem candidate for governor of Mississippi was pro-life. Good job!

What am I missing with the Mississippi results?

Reeves beat Presley 52/47.

The last governor election? Reeves beat Hood... 52/47.

There was no change. In between, Trump won 57/41.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20342]

Republicans apparently did a terrible job of conveying to the public the dangers represented by drag queens and Hunter Biden.  Who could have predicted that an authoritarian takeover of the Supreme Court that was led by a vindictive, bitter old man in the Senate comprised of members installed by an openly misogynistic President wouldn't turn out to be popular among women voters? 

[Don Johnson 4744]

6 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

What am I missing with the Mississippi results?

Reeves beat Presley 52/47.

The last governor election? Reeves beat Hood... 52/47.

There was no change. In between, Trump won 57/41.

I've posted this before, but Reeves is very unpopular with many Republicans in MS.  He's made a lot of enemies along the way.

Phil Bryant won Gov in 2011 and 2015 by 20-30%.  Yesterday, Lt Gov, SOS, AG, Treasurer, etc. all won in MS by ~20%.  Meanwhile, Tate won by 5%.

[Js1 85056]

15 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

 

I was going to write a rebuttal to this but @Js1 got there before me. 

I think there's this perception that the Democrats nationally are total boobs when it comes to running campaigns, messaging, how to allocate limited resources, etc., and it's unsupported by the lots of evidence to the contrary.  We (in Texas) are probably a little more sensitive to it just because our state party apparatus has been starving to death for 20 years in both money and talent. 

Texas is, and continues to be, a non-voting state. And the national Dem party can’t seem to figure out a way around that (and neither can the state party). Anger at Trump + Beto + general dislike of Cruz was a recipe that almost bumbled Texas Dems into a US Senate win in 2018, but it’s not really been replicable since. 

I do not blame national Dems for going more into Georgia/Arizona/NC than Texas at this point. Texas and FL are going to Thelma and Louise themselves off the cliff of sanity. 

[Pancho 44358]

So when is gov sweatervest on the ballot? 2024?

[Js1 85056]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

So when is gov sweatervest on the ballot? 2024?

VA GOV cannot run for consecutive terms - been that way since 1830 and no one has tried to change it. The next race is 2025 and will be open. Abigail Spanberger is likely the Dem nominee against one of the other GOProw office holders like LG or AG

Edited November 8, 2023 by Js1

[G650 13989]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Abigail Spanberger is likely the Dem nominee

Doubtful

[Js1 85056]

1 minute ago, G650 said:

Doubtful

Who do you think? 

[Aqua Buddha 14488]

The media seems oblivious to this because they live in the Beltway and talk about things like the Jones Act but they obsess about the various minority demographic groups and how or if they're shifting but the motherload of all groups is suburban white women with a bachelor's degree.  They're huge, they always turn out, the congressional districts are gerrymandered with them in mind and if the Dems just peeled off 5% of them, a lot of states become unwinnable.  

[G650 13989]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Who do you think? 

I am not sure, my wife and I were talking about it tonight.  I would love for Spanberger to be it, she is a great politician, but I have a hard time seeing her get through. I think someone like Foy will make another run. FWIW I think Foy would have beat Bobby Newport easily. McAuliffe was the worst candidate we possibly could have had. Clinton level awful.

[SydneyCarton 47809]

55 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Trump lost by seven million votes the last time around. Literally NOBODY who voted against Trump in 2020 is going to vote for him in 2024.  All he's succeeded in doing over the last three years is alienating some among the small percentage of people who were truly independent.  the 35% of voters who are hard core MAGA won't vote Dem, of course, but they're a decided minority, and getting smaller by the day.

Counterpoint, the amount of college educated people in America is dropping. 

[Gatorubet 30064]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Counterpoint, the amount of college educated people in America is dropping. 

Counter-counterpoint: so are old people

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Counterpoint, the amount of college educated people in America is dropping. 

What?

[The Dog 43771]

 

[immamac 42492]

1 hour ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

This is the shit that scares me most about us getting another Trump presidency.  Somehow the Israel-Hamas war is going to be blamed on Biden by social media/right wing media and Biden will lose.  I saw how a huge block of Palestinians in Michigan that voted for Biden last election are now refusing to vote for him and its apparently enough to possibly swing a state like MI to Trump.  Unfortunately, these dumbasses don't realize when it comes to just this one issue, if that is really all that matters for them, then Trump would be worse for the Palestinians in Gaza compared to Biden but I guess dumbasses in this country are dumbasses for a reason. 

HUGE BLOCK composed of less than 0.5% of voters!

[The Dog 43771]

12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Counterpoint, the amount of college educated people in America is dropping. 

 

2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

What?

"Are more people getting degrees or less and how both are good for Trump and bad for Biden" - NY Times, probably.

[Don Johnson 4744]

A review of the "voter suppression" in Mississippi yesterday.

- Hinds County itself is required to provide ballots that amount to a minimum of 60% of the active voter count.

- Reportedly 9 of 107 precincts ran out of ballots.  One as early as 8:30 am.

- It was reported by a Hinds County Election Commissioner that the shortage was because voter turnout was "unexpectedly high".

- Actual voter turnout in Hinds County was 38%. Well below 60%.  No precinct got to 60%, in fact only one got to 50%.

- All 107 precincts were allowed to stay open an extra 2 hours.

https://www.co.hinds.ms.us/pgs/results/Unofficial Election Results.pdf

https://www.co.hinds.ms.us/pgs/results/Unoffical Precinct Report.pdf

 

 

[The Dog 43771]

OMG

 

[SydneyCarton 47809]

11 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Counter-counterpoint: so are old people

That's my point. They're being replaced.

9 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

What?

I'm about to leave to get on a plane, so I can't debate this effectively. But there's been a whole thread on the enrollment and demographic bomb about to hit colleges. Hell, it even popped up over on the recruiting thread, as GA Tech and Rice are like tripling their enrollment to make hay while the sun shines.

https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-enrollment-decline/#:~:text=Today%2C fewer people are going,lowest fall enrollment since 2006.&text=The NSCRC estimates that even,2023%2C just 14.1 million students.

 

It's a thing.

[Dnaguy 11740]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That's my point. They're being replaced.

I'm about to leave to get on a plane, so I can't debate this effectively. But there's been a whole thread on the enrollment and demographic bomb about to hit colleges. Hell, it even popped up over on the recruiting thread, as GA Tech and Rice are like tripling their enrollment to make hay while the sun shines.

https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-enrollment-decline/#:~:text=Today%2C fewer people are going,lowest fall enrollment since 2006.&text=The NSCRC estimates that even,2023%2C just 14.1 million students.

 

It's a thing.

 

Is it a pandemic blip or a trend.

My money is on blip.

 

[Js1 85056]

12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That's my point. They're being replaced.

I'm about to leave to get on a plane, so I can't debate this effectively. But there's been a whole thread on the enrollment and demographic bomb about to hit colleges. Hell, it even popped up over on the recruiting thread, as GA Tech and Rice are like tripling their enrollment to make hay while the sun shines.

https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-enrollment-decline/#:~:text=Today%2C fewer people are going,lowest fall enrollment since 2006.&text=The NSCRC estimates that even,2023%2C just 14.1 million students.

 

It's a thing.

 

4 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

 

Is it a pandemic blip or a trend.

My money is on blip.

 

This sounds like a @YGIFS thing we need his input on.  It's the big thing that more women are enrolling and graduating than men? By a decent amount? 

More college educated women, who vote at a higher clip than men?  Sign me up. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

[G650 13989]

22 minutes ago, immamac said:

HUGE BLOCK composed of less than 0.5% of voters!

*Bloc

[Pancho 44358]

17 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

 

Is it a pandemic blip or a trend.

My money is on blip.

 

It’s a trend and the pandemic blip accelerated the trend.  

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

It’s a trend and the pandemic blip accelerated the trend.  

Not to go all Hall and Oates here, but I think it's between the two. College will continue to be popular because it's the surest way to financial security for most people. But it's also a huge investment where the payout isn't what it once was. I see it more as a decline in growth rather than an overall fall.

 

[Pancho 44358]

9 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Not to go all Hall and Oates here, but I think it's between the two. College will continue to be popular because it's the surest way to financial security for most people. But it's also a huge investment where the payout isn't what it once was. I see it more as a decline in growth rather than an overall fall.

 

I mean, my career (and doctoral research) is higher Ed so…

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

I mean, my career (and doctoral research) is higher Ed so…

Yeah, but I'm a dude on a message board who kind of halfway pays attention to the stuff. I think I know what's really going on, with all due respect.

[dieucla98 2931]

2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, but I'm a dude on a message board who kind of halfway pays attention to the stuff. I think I know what's really going on, with all due respect.

But did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

[Biff Tannen 45477]

34 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Sadly, I'm not positive this is satire.

[Brisketexan 104462]

Yeah, but I'm a dude on a message board who kind of halfway pays attention to the stuff. I think I know what's really going on, with all due respect.

This….is the essence of Surly.

[RDCanecutter 26239]

All we need is another Vietnam War with a draft, and those college numbers will perk back up.

[Radical Larry 28523]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Moms for Liberty got decimated in Iowa. They won 1 seat in a super rural school  district, out of like 100+ candidates they put up

Minivan Taliban is the preferred nomenclature. Assholes with Casseroles is also acceptable. 

[David Dennison 18603]

50 minutes ago, Pancho said:

It’s a trend and the pandemic blip accelerated the trend.  

How is this affecting first time job seekers?

[Horn Dog 9644]

13 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

The drinking of tears 

 

"Democracy is not the way to run a county"

 

--GOP 

[Dnaguy 11740]

6 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

"Democracy is not the way to run a county"

 

--GOP 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13537]

3 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Should we rethink our wildly unpopular policies?

No, we should curtail democracy.

[HRSchenker 2257]

4 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

LOL

Pretty funny considering Frozen Mitch won re-election in a landslide and the Republican governor candidate got fewer votes than the Republican in 2019. 

[RDCanecutter 26239]

Just now, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Should we rethink our wildly unpopular policies?

No, we should curtail democracy.

Once you've decided that you are carrying out the wishes of a God who pan-fries sinners for eternity, a little lost election here and there is taken in stride.

 

Haha, no-- you lose your shit about that too.

[Brisketexan 104462]

9 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

"Democracy is not the way to run a county"

 

--GOP 

FIF putting on billboards nationwide.

This.  This is the essence of the GQP.  They are a fascist, authoritarian, anti-democracy party, and fucking proud of it.  They are against everything this country stands for.  They stand with the kind of authoritarian dictators our grandfathers shot in the fucking face.  Do what our grandfathers would have done if they showed up on our shores -- run them right the fuck off of the continent.

[Pato del Muerto 52321]

40 minutes ago, Radical Larry said:

Minivan Taliban is the preferred nomenclature. Assholes with Casseroles is also acceptable. 

How do you feel about mall qaeda?

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13537]

5 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Once you've decided that you are carrying out the wishes of a God who pan-fries sinners for eternity, a little lost election here and there is taken in stride.

 

Haha, no-- you lose your shit about that too.

 

[Radical Larry 28523]

How do you feel about mall qaeda?

That also works.

[RDCanecutter 26239]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How do you feel about mall qaeda?

Good, but a little too 90s.