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Texas Basketball 2023-24


MuellerHorn

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Bracketology this morning: 

Lunardi: 8 seed in Indy (vs 9 seed Virginia, 1 seed is Purdue)

CBS: 9 seed in Brooklyn (vs 8 seed Michigan State, 1 seed is UConn)

USA Today: 8 seed in Indy (vs 9 seed Colorado State, 1 seed is Purdue)

 

Bracket Matrix = 9 seed

 

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21 hours ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

We finish 3-3 if we win our home games and it feels like we will need a steal on the road at Kansas, Baylor or tech to make me feel confident we would be in. Maybe 1 conference win after that would help too.

No need to complicate things. This team is 100% in at 8-10. No additional wins are needed. The NET is plenty good enough and the Q1 wins are there. 

2 more wins. That is the goal.

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8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I dunno.  VTech just beat UVA's ass by 30 or something.

I think it would be a bigger rock fight than last night. VT’s 3 point shooters are better than ours, except maybe Disu. What I wouldn’t give for a Catoor or Nickel who justifies taking 20+ threes a night. Versus our lame attempt to be the GSW and going 3-19

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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think it would be a bigger rock fight than last night. VT’s 3 point shooters are better than ours, except maybe Disu. What I wouldn’t give for a Catoor or Nickel who justifies taking 20+ threes a night. Versus our lame attempt to be the GSW and going 3-19

Tyrese just missed another wide-open 3 at a critical juncture in the game.

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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think it would be a bigger rock fight than last night. VT’s 3 point shooters are better than ours, except maybe Disu. What I wouldn’t give for a Catoor or Nickel who justifies taking 20+ threes a night. Versus our lame attempt to be the GSW and going 3-19

I'd be interested to know how many games there have been this year where neither Disu or Abmas made a 3. I'm gonna guess it is zero.

We were shooting the three above 37% for the year heading into last night. Now, if the complaint is we shot too many when they weren't falling, that's fair, but a good chunk of those were pretty open.

We are 3rd in the Big 12 in 3point% and 2nd in FT%. Was an off night for both.

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Last night was one of the worst shooting nights I can remember.  Sometimes shots don't fall.  If we had simply shot from deep to K-State's opponent average (31.4%), we blow them out.

I thought the rotations last night were ok.  Horton played more than I would have liked, but I can see RT trying to find a hot hand.  Abmas + Hunter + Weaver were a combined 0-10 from 3.  Yikes.  At least Horton hit a couple.

On the plus side, we had 38 rebounds... and somehow only 9 turnovers.  Some of the shots were so bad though that they may as well have been turnovers. (I'm looking at you Shedrick corner 3).

I would like to see Hunter get fewer minutes.  He finished with 37 last night.  Get him down in the 30 mpg range and give more to Weaver. 

Also good: Disu 10-11 from the line including some huge FTs when it really mattered. 

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Bracketology this morning: 

Lunardi: 8 seed in Indy (vs 9 seed Virginia, 1 seed is Purdue)

CBS: 9 seed in Brooklyn (vs 8 seed Michigan State, 1 seed is UConn)

USA Today: 8 seed in Indy (vs 9 seed Colorado State, 1 seed is Purdue)

In Massey rankings, we are #25.

  • Lunardi: Virginia is #31, Purdue #2
  • CBS: MSU is #21, UConn #1
  • USA Today: CSU is #34
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1 hour ago, HookEm said:

Last night was one of the worst shooting nights I can remember.  Sometimes shots don't fall.  If we had simply shot from deep to K-State's opponent average (31.4%), we blow them out.

I thought the rotations last night were ok.  Horton played more than I would have liked, but I can see RT trying to find a hot hand.  Abmas + Hunter + Weaver were a combined 0-10 from 3.  Yikes.  At least Horton hit a couple.

On the plus side, we had 38 rebounds... and somehow only 9 turnovers.  Some of the shots were so bad though that they may as well have been turnovers. (I'm looking at you Shedrick corner 3).

I would like to see Hunter get fewer minutes.  He finished with 37 last night.  Get him down in the 30 mpg range and give more to Weaver. 

Also good: Disu 10-11 from the line including some huge FTs when it really mattered. 

The 3-19 felt so much like a Shaka special but we won so good for the team on that but I think it was more that KSU was absolutely horrendous.

horton and brock's 3's along with Disu basically won us the game.

 

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2 hours ago, HookEm said:

I would like to see Hunter get fewer minutes.  He finished with 37 last night.  Get him down in the 30 mpg range and give more to Weaver.

I actually thought Tyrese played one of his better games of the season last night outside of the 0/2 trip to the line and missed 3s. 

But yeah - ain't no one need him playing 37 minutes. 

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I think he puts pressure on himself to be super high energy because he knows that's why he's out there.   Being a live wire may not always be conducive to shooting well.  You don't want to tell him to relax though because that's not his role right now.  

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talking about next year’s team in another thread, so we may as well bring that discussion over here where it belongs:

 

gone: disu, abmas, brock, shedrick, horton

defintely returning: weaver, onyema 

may or may not be here: hunter, mitchell

likely additions: tre johnson, nic codie

 

so at best we’re building around this roster:

tyrese hunter

tre johnson

chendall weaver

dillon mitchell

ze’rik onyema

 

bench:

nic codie

 

and and worst you can delete hunter and mitchell from that lineup. so we’ve got that lineup, + whoever RT is able to sign, and RT is still the head coach. yeah. next year’s team is going to be bad.

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13 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

talking about next year’s team in another thread, so we may as well bring that discussion over here where it belongs:

 

gone: disu, abmas, brock, shedrick, horton

defintely returning: weaver, onyema 

may or may not be here: hunter, mitchell

likely additions: tre johnson, nic codie

 

so at best we’re building around this roster:

tyrese hunter

tre johnson

chendall weaver

dillon mitchell

ze’rik onyema

 

bench:

nic codie

 

and and worst you can delete hunter and mitchell from that lineup. so we’ve got that lineup, + whoever RT is able to sign, and RT is still the head coach. yeah. next year’s team is going to be bad.

Did something happen to Cam Scott? I think it is premature to say the team is going to be bad before we see who we actually get in the portal. If the portal class looks like the group we brought in this year then yes, we will most definitely be bad.

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1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:

Shedrick isn't out of eligibility. Chris Johnson and Devin Pryor are currently freshmen. We are in the final group for that big man from NBA Africa who took an OV a month ago.

everyone here hates shedrick, so let’s not start acting like keeping him would be a big deal. chris johnson has got to be gone, he’s been a complete afterthought for this team, i can’t imagine him staying, especially considering that he showed up here last minute anyway. and while it’s possible that pryor is a real contributor next year, it’s really really unlikely that he’s a real contributor on a good team.

these guys are either unlikely to be here or are unlikely to be impact players here next year, especially on a good team. and RT is no Beard, not as a HC, and not in the portal. we’ve been worried about the bubble all year, and the odds of next year’s team even being as good as this year’s team are slim to none. it’s gonna be a rough season next year.

Edited by shadow_operative
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everyone here hates shedrick, so let’s not start acting like keeping him would be a big deal. chris johnson has got to be gone, he’s been a complete afterthought for this team, i can’t imagine him staying, especially considering that he showed up here last minute anyway. and while it’s possible that pryor is a real contributor next year, it’s really really unlikely that he’s a real contributor on a good team.
these guys are either unlikely to be here or are unlikely to be impact players here next year, especially on a good team. and RT is no Beard, not as a HC, and not in the portal. we’ve been worried about the bubble all year, and the odds of next year’s team even being as good as this year’s team are slim to none. it’s gonna be a rough season next year.

Shedrick isn't out of eligibility. Chris Johnson and Devin Pryor are currently freshmen. We are in the final group for that big man from NBA Africa who took an OV a month ago.



Shedrick is ok for an injury prone big that moves okay and can give you 10-15 minutes a game…

absent a decent big man to man the paint and a couple guys who can maintain a dribble moving north and south (not to mention a couple guys who can hit an open three at a good %) next year could be a drop like Arkansas saw this year …

Terry can fill out the roster with guys who have decent stats / expectations but he’s yet to show he can get them on the same page, working cohesively and without panic on defense and offense. He won’t have abmas and Disu to run high pick and rolls and make something out of nothing when all else breaks down.
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7 minutes ago, VaLonghorn99 said:

Do we suck again, sigh? Or do we need to give the new guy a chance?

we’re pretty good offensively thanks to our top two guys being efficient/high volume scorers. we are pretty bad defensively, and inept at defending the three. we do however tend to try pretty hard, the effort is generally there.

there are plenty of teams out there who could beat us on our best day, but because our top two guys are borderline all american talents, we could conceivably make the S16. we could also play some ugly ass 8/9 game where the winner turns the ball over 16 times and scores 60 points.

going forward, we’re pretty much spinning our wheels as long as RT is our HC. sucks, but it is what it is.

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41 minutes ago, VaLonghorn99 said:

Do we suck again, sigh? Or do we need to give the new guy a chance?

 

I never started.

We got an Elite Eight out of it. We're not exactly covered with those in this program. It's a legitimate reason for celebration. I'm not going to root for Texas basketball to fail, but I am going to say not making the tournament has a very big silver lining. I feel confident right now by the end of next year we're looking in a different direction. That's not inside info. Just the way I see it. 

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3 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Shedrick isn't out of eligibility. Chris Johnson and Devin Pryor are currently freshmen. We are in the final group for that big man from NBA Africa who took an OV a month ago.

Why would you expect dekra to know what he's talking about?

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56 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Why would you expect dekra to know what he's talking about?

so it’s your contention that those guys will be important pieces of a good Texas team next year?

also, uh, might want to pick another subject when trying to take a jab at what i am/am not knowledgeable about. like if i were going to take a jab at you for example i would say something about you being overly negative, volatile, and reactive. i definitely wouldn’t question your ability to suck as a poster and contribute nothing to any discussion on this site.

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Wow, is it already time to start fretting about NEXT year?  My goodness what a beating to be so pessimistic.  I thought everyone learned last year not to worry until like August.

The losses last year were much more significant than they will likely be this year.  We lost Carr, Rice, Allen, Bishop, and Morris.  That is 3 starters and two key role players. Then we had the very late, surprise recruiting loss of National #2 Ron Holland and #24 AJ Johnson. And capped it off by losing 4-star Brumbaugh. Holy shit. The fact that we even have a somewhat competent team this year should tell you that RT is pretty decent in the portal.

To summarize, last year we returned: Disu, Hunter, Mitchell, Cunningham and Anamekwe. Everyone was freaking out. We literally returned only ONE guard... and a flawed one at that.  So, RT went out and got the #1 guard in the portal in Abmas. 

This year we could return: Hunter (80%), Mitchell (80%), Weaver (95%), Shedrick (90%), Onyema (90%), Johnson (50%), Pryor (70%), Anamekwe (50%). We are bringing in one elite recruit and another solid one.  

I think the team will look like this:

  • PG - Hunter - The complaints are justified, but he is playing better this year according to almost every measurable stat.  PER, TS%, eFG%, PTS, AST, STL.  If he stays, he will continue to get marginally better.  And we are still talking about a senior, 3-year starter on a S16 and E8 team (plus whatever we do this year)
  • SG - Weaver - Already good and improving.  Has the potential to be great. The athleticism is there. The shot is clean. I will be surprised if he doesn't make a moderate leap.
  • G/F - Tre Johnson - National Top-5 HS Player. Great scorer off the dribble and from 3. Good rebounder. Could be really good. Will give us size on the perimeter we are missing this year.
  • PF – Dillon Mitchell - Should continue to improve. Hopefully we see a shot start to develop
  • C - Elite Transfer. Hopefully someone on the level of a Hunter Dickenson or Kel'El Ware.  Time to open the checkbook.
  • --------------------------------------------------
  • G - Elite transfer who might end up starting depending on how good he is.  
  • C - Kaeden Shedrick - Another year of continuity and hopefully a lack of injuries could help him
  • PG - Chris Johnson - TBD.  If he stays, I would expect him to be marginally improved.
  • SG - Cam Scott - Should be a role player
  • SF - Devon Pryor - Enrolled early, so he is more like a true freshman who got the benefit of a year of college level training. Doubt he does much for another year.
  • PF - Ze'Rik Onyema - Don't think he will ever be more than a 10 mpg spot defender

There is still more talent on this roster than most. You have two National top-6 HS recruits starting. Plus a handful of other top 30-50 players. The guards will be upper-classmen. 

All of this and we will be in the SEC, which should be considerably easier.

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Just now, HookEm said:

My goodness what a beating to be so pessimistic.

i have never/will never understand this reaction. every time someone projects a player or team to be awesome nobody ever has a problem with it. yet every single time that someone says that a player or team won’t be good/as good as everyone else wants them to be, we get this, “wow you’re so miserable and pessimistic!” response. 

you wanna ask if we’re going to do stuff all over again? i might ask if this is going to be a repeat of 2016-17 when my take that we were in for a rough year was met with fiery opposition in the board, with vehement insistence that there was no way to possibly project what the season/team would look like. before that season started, when people said that shaka’s second team could be even better than his first team that finished 3rd in the big xii (dead serious i remember you being one of these people) nobody cared. nobody called it outrageous, even though it really was an outrageously optimistic statement. but when i said that we wouldn’t be that good, suddenly people had a big issue and i got this type of reaction. it’s been this way every single time i’ve taken this position on any player or team from this university to this day, and to this day i don’t understand it, at all.

you people take an objectively rational take and, because it’s “pessimistic” (more reasonable people might call it “realistic”) you act as if it’s just totally unfounded and baseless, that only a miserable, cynical person could possibly come to this conclusion. it’s ridiculous.

we’re losing the bulk of our production from what is already a mediocre team, the players who are returning are either young, unproven, mediocre-bad, or all of the above, and our head coach has irrefutably proven himself to be out of his depth at his position. do not act like this take is some overly negative, cynical view of things. it’s based firmly in reality. for christs sake, shaka smart is a much better HC than rodney terry, and you’re seriously gonna sit here and act like there’s no reason to be down on our prospects going forward? stop it.

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go look at the makeup of our ~10 best teams of last 25 years (so dating back to RB’s first year). then compare those teams and their makeup to the best possible scenario for next year, coaching staff included. when you look at our best teams you’ve got teams full of 2, 3, 4 year players who’ve developed real chemistry together; you’ve got all conference and all american players; you’ve got one of the best HC’s in college basketball, with assistants who will go on to be HC’s themselves; you’ve got teams with concrete identities who consistently play a specific brand of basketball that is confident, competent, and played at full speed at all times, a style that the HC intentionally and successfully recruits to. every single good team we’ve had looks like that ^^^^.

how anyone can look at those teams and their composition, look at the composition of our crappier teams, then look forward to next year’s team, and come to the conclusion that it will be one if the good teams and not one of the frustratingly inconsistent-downright shitty teams is wild. we have so many examples of what both good and bad teams look like, and you’re not only going to choose to be willfully blind and positive beyond reason, you’re going to say that it’s the people with the opposing view who are really out here on a limb for emotional reasons. that’s just wild to me. 

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20 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

i have never/will never understand this reaction. every time someone projects a player or team to be awesome nobody ever has a problem with it.

I wouldn't expect you to understand the reaction, but I will try.

Negative people are a beating, but they rarely realize it. Whether at work, at home, in social circles, on message boards, among fellow fans, wherever. People with a pessimistic outlook try to infect everyone else with their negativity. By definition, it is a drag because that is exactly what the negative person is trying to do: drag down their optimism and convince them that the future is bleak. And it is often done with a smug attitude that they are the only enlightened ones who have a realistic view, or who are smart enough to understand what is going on.  They simultaneously make others feel stupid while also tearing down their hopeful view.  Do you think people will react in a cheery manner? Nope. It is a beating.  

I admit I have been wrong before about our prospects, thought I still contend that some of the Shaka teams were pretty unlucky.  The team you mentioned lost 14 games by 10 points or less.  We had the talent to be better and I always thought Shaka would revert back to his winning style (which he eventually did at Marquette).  Whatever.  You have been wrong before as well.

We could very well add two top-10 portal players to the roster.  We will likely have two top-6 HS recruits starting.  We will potentially have two upper-class guards.  Who knows. Or maybe we will just backfill everyone with players like Horton and Onyema and win 10 games next year.  My point wasn't that we will be great. My point is that we won't know until July-August.

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13 minutes ago, MAUFRAIS said:
24 minutes ago, HookEm said:
I wouldn't expect you to understand … at work, at home, in social circles, on message boards, among fellow fans, wherever.

always funny when people who don’t have the stones to ever give their own takes or opinions to talk shit about those that do. 

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31 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Negative people are a beating, but they rarely realize it.

i’m gonna stop you right there. if you spoke to a single person who knows me they would absolutely die of laughter at the idea that i’m a negative person. the people who know me marvel at how i’m always so positive all things considered. there are lots of people here who know me. ask any one of them about my daily disposition. hell my former employer posts here. he used to spend every single day with me. ask him if he wouldn’t describe me as *wildly* positive on a daily basis. see what he says.

this has nothing to do with me. i am so far from a negative person its insane. in fact i’ll point out for the thousandth time that every single game thread for years and years and years is full of negativity and personal jabs at our players, something that i decline to participate in 99% of the time. calling a spade a spade does not make me a negative person. you acting as if the only possible reason that someone could project next year’s team to not be very good simply makes you a delusional person. 

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25 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I wouldn't expect you to understand the reaction, but I will try.

Negative people are a beating, but they rarely realize it. Whether at work, at home, in social circles, on message boards, among fellow fans, wherever. People with a pessimistic outlook try to infect everyone else with their negativity. By definition, it is a drag because that is exactly what the negative person is trying to do: drag down their optimism and convince them that the future is bleak. And it is often done with a smug attitude that they are the only enlightened ones who have a realistic view, or who are smart enough to understand what is going on.  They simultaneously make others feel stupid while also tearing down their hopeful view.  Do you think people will react in a cheery manner? Nope. It is a beating.  

I admit I have been wrong before about our prospects, thought I still contend that some of the Shaka teams were pretty unlucky.  The team you mentioned lost 14 games by 10 points or less.  We had the talent to be better and I always thought Shaka would revert back to his winning style (which he eventually did at Marquette).  Whatever.  You have been wrong before as well.

We could very well add two top-10 portal players to the roster.  We will likely have two top-6 HS recruits starting.  We will potentially have two upper-class guards.  Who knows. Or maybe we will just backfill everyone with players like Horton and Onyema and win 10 games next year.  My point wasn't that we will be great. My point is that we won't know until July-August.

Using logic, history and experience to lead to a negative prognostication has nothing to do with being a negative person or trying to drag people down. It’s just a fucking opinion based upon the above. 
Now, a person who willfully ignores those things can be anything from happy to delusional. 

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IMG_9001.thumb.jpeg.eb5d39f25575f81f99e494546784f830.jpeg

disu > gone

abmas > gone

hunter > yikes. 50/50 to return 

mitchell > severely limited, 50/50 to return

horton > gone; also not good

shedrick > 10-15 min role player, possibly gone

onyema > non factor 

brock > probably gone, but you never quite know with this guy 

weaver > first guy on the list i’m excited to have back

rodney terry > returning 

 

you cannot objectively look at this, add a couple freshman and 3-4 transfers and come to the conclusion that we won’t be worse off next year than we are this year. 

 

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I think I just have an over-sensitivity to forecasts of roster doom in the NIL era. The game has changed from what it was just 3-4 years ago.  We could turn over the ENTIRE roster and still go get plenty of talent.  None of us know what it is going to look like.  But I am willing to bet that this coaching staff (and boosters / administration) will do what is necessary to go get some good players.  

Now, whether this staff can develop them into an elite team is another topic entirely.

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1 minute ago, shadow_operative said:

you cannot objectively look at this, add a couple freshman and 3-4 transfers and come to the conclusion that we won’t be worse off next year than we are this year. 

Now show last year.

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1 minute ago, HookEm said:

I think I just have an over-sensitivity to forecasts of roster doom in the NIL era. The game has changed from what it was just 3-4 years ago.  We could turn over the ENTIRE roster and still go get plenty of talent.  None of us know what it is going to look like.  But I am willing to bet that this coaching staff (and boosters / administration) will do what is necessary to go get some good players.  

Now, whether this staff can develop them into an elite team is another topic entirely.

i don’t disagree with your premise, i just disagree that it applies to this coaching staff. if we still has chris beard and were losing/retaining the exact same squad there’s no way i would be forecasting anything at this point in time. but as long as RT is running this program, it is what it is. a great HC makes up for deficiencies within the team, while a coach of RT’s character probably gets less out of the team than what they’re capable of. overturning the roster and winning with a bunch of new faces is pretty much exclusively done by great HC’s. RT doesn’t have that in his bag. at all. 

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Wait a second... are you saying that Abmas is better than any player we lost last year?  Carr, Rice, Allen, etc? 

But those guys were recruited and developed by BEARD!  It seems impossible that RT could recruit someone who is even better than the guys portal master Beard brought in!???

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29 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I think I just have an over-sensitivity to forecasts of roster doom in the NIL era. The game has changed from what it was just 3-4 years ago.  We could turn over the ENTIRE roster and still go get plenty of talent.  None of us know what it is going to look like.  But I am willing to bet that this coaching staff (and boosters / administration) will do what is necessary to go get some good players.  

Now, whether this staff can develop them into an elite team is another topic entirely.

Yes, I agree. RT certainly could put together a good roster via the portal. Guy at Tech did it this year. 
But, you also have to acknowledge some real and practical headwinds to him doing so.  

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