Texas Basketball 2023-24

[Hookem2147 21323]

Considering the headwinds faced early with Johnson and Holland decommitting, it's a pretty damn solid roster we are going to head into the season with. Hard to ask for much more. Should easily be a preseason top 15-20 team.

[HookEm 2467]

 

4 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

He's in. 

Awesome news. I think that rounds out our roster.

 

11 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

right now, having never seen this team/coaching staff play/perform together, i'd say our ceiling is about the S16; with Holland on the team i think i'd make it the final four.

Regarding this team, I think the ceiling is higher than S16.  I would say S16 is more like my minimum expectation.  Granted, every year is different so it depends a lot on the overall strength of the competition and how the chemistry develops.

I have posted this before, but now that our team is completely filled out we have a good picture of what our team will be.  Keep in mind that this was an E8 team that was a few calls away from the Final Four in our own backyard.  I think it is fair to say last year's ceiling was National Title because we were definitely in the mix.

• Hunter ('24) vs. Hunter (’23) – Moderate upgrade. Hunter will be a year older and was also injured a good bit of last year.  
• Aẞmas (’24) vs. Carr (’23) – Even (at worst).  Carr is a better defender. Aẞmas better, more efficient scorer (and NCAA All-Region).
• Mitchell ('24) vs. Mitchell (’23) – Moderate upgrade.  I look for him to make a decent leap this year. 
• Disu (’24) vs. Disu (’23) – Slight upgrade. Disu was playing like a 1^st team All-American. I think we get a whole year of that guy and he gets more minutes
• Shedrick (’24) vs. Allen ('23) - Slight downgrade. Shedrick gives us interior defense, but Allen was a swiss army knife.  Shedrick is a better shooter though. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• Bench – Rice (’23) vs. Weaver (’24) – Big downgrade.  Rice was a proven former conference PoY.  Weaver looks to be good though.
• Bench – Cunningham (’24) vs. Cunningham ('23) - Slight upgrade.  Another year of experience and Cunningham should be little better.
• Bench - Johnson ('24) vs. Morris ('23) - Even.  Morris didn't do a whole lot.  I don't expect a ton from Johnson this year either. 
• Bench  – Bishop (’23) vs. Onyema (’24) – Moderate downgrade.  Bishop was big in moments.  I expect his minutes will be picked up elsewhere.
• Bench – Anamekwe (’24) vs. Anamekwe ('23) – Moderate upgrade.  Likely won't be a big impact though.

To sum it up:

• Guards - Advantage 2023, mainly due to Rice.  This may be offset by Hunter's improvement and Aẞmas superior shooting.  Both will get a ton of minutes.
• Forwards - Advantage 2024.  Mitchell, Disu and Cunningham should all be better.  I don't think losing Allen will hurt much honestly.
• Center - Advantage 2024.  Shedrick should be better than anything we had last year. And Disu will also get extended small-ball Center run.
• FT Shooting - Slight advantage 2024.  Aẞmas will be our closer and is one of the best in the country (a lot better FT shooter than Carr and also better than Rice).  Hunter will improve.  Weaver is already better from the line than Allen.  Shedrick is a better FT shooter than any big we had on the roster last year.  This should be a team strength.
• Defense - Even.  Aẞmas won't be as good as Carr, but Shedrick will help a ton on the interior.  Mitchell should be improved.

Overall I would say we are even at worst given the individual pieces.  How they fit together will determine whether this is a Final Four or a 1st Weekend team.  I'm betting closer to the former than the later.  Honestly this looks like a top-10 team to me.

[Js1 85353]

1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Rumor on twitter is Memphis but I'm sure several schools will get involved. 

I'm not sure about his fit at Texas either as he's another small guard to go with small guards Abmas and Hunter. But he can shoot. 

Really hoping we get November/December/March Hunter for all of next season and not the Jan-Feb version

[Lonestar88 4690]

Johnson being in the fold rounds out the roster nicely.

 

As far as Holland, he’s obviously a big loss, but next years NBA draft class is expected to be historically bad. Holland is is being penciled in at 1 because they literally can’t find someone who deserves it in a normal year and he at least has some measurables. In actuality, that shit is wide open. Anyone who has a breakout year could rise up to number one.

[CashMcCoy 3199]

Torvik has us 9th in the 2024 preseason T-Rank before and after adding Johnson. Doesn’t mean anything, but I find it much more interesting than some guy like Jeff Goodman’s personal opinion.

[HookEm 2467]

As far as size goes, we give up a LITTLE size on the perimeter, but our wings and post players are a good bit bigger.  

Departing:

• Carr:  6-2, 195
• Rice:  6-4, 180
• Morris:  6-3, 190
• Allen:  6-6, 198
• Bishop:  6-7, 220

Arriving:

• Abmas:  6-1, 165
• Weaver:  6-3, 164
• Johnson:  6-6, 192
• Onyema:  6-8, 215
• Shedrick:  6-11, 216

Bishop was probably our biggest, most physical defender last year and was undersized at 6-7.  Onyma is marginally bigger than Bishop, and Shedrick is in a whole different class.  Chris Johnson also gives us a big combo guard who can make up for some of the size we are giving up with Abmas.  

[someguy 1508]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Really hoping we get November/December/March Hunter for all of next season and not the Jan-Feb version

I'm optimistic - some physical stuff got sorted out in time for March, hopefully once and for all.

[HookEm 2467]

On the 3-point shooting front, we should be pretty solid and marginally better than last year.

Abmas is a legit great shooter and is already #16 on the all-time NCAA 3-pointers made list and was #5 in the country last year.  Weaver is also a threat from deep and shot over 40% as a freshman (albeit on limited volume).  Tyrese Hunter improved from 27% as a freshman to 34% last year (and from 67% to 80% from the line).  I would hope he could get up to 36%+ this year.  Cunningham has averaged 43% from deep over the last two seasons. 

Our bigs haven't really shot the 3 in recent years, but Disu has potential.  He shot 37% from 3 at Vanderbilt on almost four 3s per game.  In conference last year he averaged 40% from 3, but on pretty low volume.  Shedrick is an 80% FT shooter, so I think he also has potential.  

I don't expect much from Dillon Mitchell from deep, but then we got almost nothing from Allen last year so that isn't a big change.

Departing:

• Carr:  2.2/5.9  36.8%
• Rice:  1.7 / 4.5  37.1%
• Morris:  0.8 / 2.3  33.3%
• Allen:  0.1 / 0.6  15.0%  (non factor)
• Bishop:  0.0 / 0.3  0.0%  (non factor)

Arriving:

• Abmas:   3.6 / 9.2  39.4%  (last 3 years)
• Weaver:   1.0 / 2.6  40.2%
• Johnson:   20-30% in high school.  Not really his game.
• Onyema:   0.1 / 0.4  20.0%  (non factor)
• Shedrick:   0.0 / 0.2 20.0%  non factor

[shadow_operative 15932]

the humongous difference in this year's team and last year's is chemistry. almost the entirety of last year's important minutes went to returning players/senior players who'd been in our system and playing/practicing/training with each other for multiple years. we might look similar on paper, but i'll subtract several wins (and a tourney round our two) for our lack of experience together, plus our downgrade at HC/coaching staff. if this team were to make the second weekend i'd call that an overachieving season. 

[txhorns 2409]

31 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

the humongous difference in this year's team and last year's is chemistry. almost the entirety of last year's important minutes went to returning players/senior players who'd been in our system and playing/practicing/training with each other for multiple years. we might look similar on paper, but i'll subtract several wins (and a tourney round our two) for our lack of experience together, plus our downgrade at HC/coaching staff. if this team were to make the second weekend i'd call that an overachieving season. 

Normally I would agree but not anymore.  Almost all teams are replacing a huge part of their roster every single year now.  We aren’t alone in that and so it shouldn’t be to our detriment near as much as it would have 5 years ago.  We also still return our PG, which is a big part of mitigating the roster turnover.

[HookEm 2467]

I get that we won't know the chemistry till we see it on the floor.  Last year we actually only returned 49% of the minutes and 52% of the scoring from 2021.  We had lost full-time starters Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey.  Tre Mitchell, Devin Askew and Jase Febres had also all started games.  Sir'Jabari Rice and Tyrese Hunter had barely arrived on campus at this point and Dylan Disu hadn't started a single game for Texas and was still recovering from injury.

This year we return 43% of the minutes (not a ton less than last year)... but only 36% of the scoring.  Just like last year we are returning three starters and breaking in a couple of new, but experienced guards.  So I guess subtracting a couple of in-season wins is reasonable, but I wouldn't go beyond that. 

As txhorns mentions, EVERYONE is going to have a lot of turnover.  KU is also only returning 39% of their scoring and they may be the #1 team in the country.

As far as coaching goes, I agree it is a downgrade losing Chris Beard from the off-season.  We retained almost all of the staff though, so there is good continuity.  I personally think Frank Haith is a SLIGHT upgrade over Donewald, but others may disagree.  I also think Cory Schlesinger is a SLIGHT upgrade over John Reilly, but both are great.  Losing Beard does hurt though.  I would say that is good for a couple of losses as well. 

I think "on paper" the team is a little better, and the pieces seem to fit better. But with the above intangibles there is more risk.  So for me personally, I will call it a wash.  I would be pretty disappointed if we don't make the 2nd weekend with this group.

[RichUT 1832]

Normally I would agree but not anymore.  Almost all teams are replacing a huge part of their roster every single year now.  We aren’t alone in that and so it shouldn’t be to our detriment near as much as it would have 5 years ago.  We also still return our PG, which is a big part of mitigating the roster turnover.

I think the point is that our team realized outsized benefits from keeping our roster together LAST YEAR, and that we won’t have that tailwind this year.

[shadow_operative 15932]

37 minutes ago, txhorns said:

Normally I would agree but not anymore.  Almost all teams are replacing a huge part of their roster every single year now.  We aren’t alone in that and so it shouldn’t be to our detriment near as much as it would have 5 years ago.  We also still return our PG, which is a big part of mitigating the roster turnover.

sure, but i'm just comparing the upcoming team to last year's team, and the simple fact is that if the two teams look pretty even on paper talent wise, then i'm going to give the edge to the squad that returns it's entire team and is full of 23 year old fifth year seniors. that team made the EE. there's no way i'm going to expect that type of success from a similarly talented roster with way less cohesion and experience, plus a brand new/inferior coaching staff. 

Edited June 26, 2023 by shadow_operative

[CashMcCoy 3199]

Putting a ceiling on this team’s tournament potential is wild when FAU just made the Final Four and SDSU played for a national title.

[ztejas 43457]

7 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

sure, but i'm just comparing the upcoming team to last year's team, and the simple fact is that if the two teams look pretty even on paper talent wise, then i'm going to give the edge to the squad that returns it's entire team and is full of 23 year old fifth year seniors. that team made the EE. there's no way i'm going to expect that type of success from a similarly talented roster with way less cohesion and experience, plus a brand new/inferior coaching staff. 

But that team didn't hit their ceiling. 

[jimmyjazz 45963]

59 minutes ago, CashMcCoy said:

Putting a ceiling on this team’s tournament potential is wild when FAU just made the Final Four and SDSU played for a national title.

That sums up my thoughts more succinctly than I could have.  Thank you.  Beyond that, we made the Elite 8 and had a strong shot at the Final Four were it not for some in-game injuries.

[HookEm 2467]

53 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

i'm going to give the edge to the squad that returns it's entire team and is full of 23 year old fifth year seniors. that team made the EE.

Again, that is just a gross over-exaggeration. The 2022-2023 team only returned about half of their minutes and points. They also started a true freshman and a sophomore transfer.

As a reminder, the 2022 team lost:

• Andrew Jones - 88 starts at Texas, 2nd Team All Big 12
• Courtney Ramey - 106 starts at Texas, 3rd Team All Big 12
• Tre Mitchell - 17 starts at Texas (but quit on the team in February)
• Devin Askew - 15 mpg off the bench in conference
• Jase Febres - 14 mpg off the bench
• Jaylon Tyson - Quit mid-year

I will agree that the team was exceptionally experienced, but MOST of their career minutes were played before they got to Texas.  

It did help a ton having Chris Beard, maybe the best coach in college basketball at building a culture and getting unfamiliar players to work together.  He has done this over and over again. If he was still here, I would be viewing this team as a legit title contender.

[txhorns 2409]

We aren’t as old and experienced as last season but it’s not near the drop off that you would think it is.

[YGIFS 19450]

https://texassports.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule

Non-conf. schedule starting to take shape.  LSU not on there yet, and I think we had one other one announced.

But the classic in New York.  UCONN, Texas, Indiana, Louisville 

I would just guess you don't want the two highest ranked/biggest name teams to face off the first night, you want that to be your title game.  

So I would think we'd pair with Indiana and UCONN goes with Louisville.  Then hopefully us versus the reigning champ in front of a hometown crowd for the champ. 

 

[HookEm 2467]

45 minutes ago, txhorns said:

We aren’t as old and experienced as last season but it’s not near the drop off that you would think it is.

Agree.  This team is actually just about as old - and as a group has started almost as many games.  The main difference is that we won't be starting a freshman this year.

Our bench was considerably stronger last year though.  

 

[texifornia 56976]

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

https://texassports.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule

Non-conf. schedule starting to take shape.  LSU not on there yet, and I think we had one other one announced.

But the classic in New York.  UCONN, Texas, Indiana, Louisville 

I would just guess you don't want the two highest ranked/biggest name teams to face off the first night, you want that to be your title game.  

So I would think we'd pair with Indiana and UCONN goes with Louisville.  Then hopefully us versus the reigning champ in front of a hometown crowd for the champ. 

 

For basketball, and in a city full of Big 10 grads, Indiana might be the bigger draw. Texas is the better team this year which should sway it, though.

[YGIFS 19450]

I was talking about TV since those early season ones even in huge cities don't provide a shitton of ticket sales.  I think for broadcasting and sponsorships, you put your biggest name against your weakest one.  We all know the brand of Louisville hoops but even the casual fan knows it's a dumpster fire right now.  And then IU/UT on the other side.  And whoever wins that game are both big names and plays UCONN and TV is happy.  Don't forget UT has an awful lot of alumns in New York as well, even a joint university club with Penn that has hundreds of UT members.  I'm guessing at least 4-5,000 in the tri-state area total.     

[MotownHorn 1767]

1) Now that the dust has settled I think any objective observer has to say that this first off-season has been a big success for RT

2) We’re returning 3 starters and our glue guy in addition to adding a number of impressive players on paper. My expectation is sweet 16 or better 🤘🏼

[Hank_Hill 18825]

A to A+ offseason for RT after what looked like could be a disaster. Not sure what else he could’ve done outside of giving Holland his paycheck.

[shadow_operative 15932]

3 hours ago, CashMcCoy said:

Putting a ceiling on this team’s tournament potential is wild when FAU just made the Final Four and SDSU played for a national title.

it's really not. pointing to complete outliers as evidence that we can't somewhat reasonably assess our own team's tourney chances is backwards logic. this last season was the first time in 15 years that Texas made it to the second weekend. it's not wild to say that  this team (a team full of new players playing under a coach who honestly should not even be a head coach in this league) would be overachieving by making it to the sweet 16 is not wild. it's objectively rational. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by shadow_operative

[shadow_operative 15932]

also just gonna take this moment to point out that this is shaping up to be a classic case of one of those times where i say something that isn't even particularly critical, but because it isn't all sunshine and roses people end up getting really upset at me, convincing themselves that i'm "doing this on purpose", and posting things like, "but Derka said we would suck this season!!1!1!!" if we end up in fact doing well. the fact that every post i make suggesting that making the S16 would be an overachievement is met with four posts in disagreement is a major sign of things to (potentially) come. i'm hoping that this post will nip all of that in the bud. i doubt it, but it's worth a shot. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by shadow_operative

[Js1 85353]

Preemptively making yourself the victim. Classic 

[shadow_operative 15932]

3 hours ago, ztejas said:

But that team didn't hit their ceiling. 

99% of teams don't hit their ceiling. this upcoming Texas team will also not reach its ceiling, a ceiling that to me appears to be objectively lower than last year's team when we had much more experience and cohesion plus a wildly superior coaching staff with a history of making deep tourney runs.

it's as if this entire site thinks that there will be zero learning curve for RT. like the results we get will be directly proportional to the talent we have on paper. if that's how it worked then shaka's team that lost to ACU would have been in the final four. expecting this team to make the S16 or further is blind homerism.

[shadow_operative 15932]

2 hours ago, HookEm said:

Again, that is just a gross over-exaggeration. The 2022-2023 team only returned about half of their minutes and points. They also started a true freshman and a sophomore transfer.

As a reminder, the 2022 team lost:

• Andrew Jones - 88 starts at Texas, 2nd Team All Big 12
• Courtney Ramey - 106 starts at Texas, 3rd Team All Big 12
• Tre Mitchell - 17 starts at Texas (but quit on the team in February)
• Devin Askew - 15 mpg off the bench in conference
• Jase Febres - 14 mpg off the bench
• Jaylon Tyson - Quit mid-year

I will agree that the team was exceptionally experienced, but MOST of their career minutes were played before they got to Texas.  

It did help a ton having Chris Beard, maybe the best coach in college basketball at building a culture and getting unfamiliar players to work together.  He has done this over and over again. If he was still here, I would be viewing this team as a legit title contender.

last years team had pretty much all played together for an entire season, including a tourney win. this year's team has never played together, nor has this coaching staff coached a single game together. that's not a recipe for the type of success that everyone here seems to be predicting.

[CashMcCoy 3199]

16 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

it's really not. pointing to complete outliers as evidence that we can't somewhat reasonably assess our own team's tourney chances is backwards logic. this last season was the first time in 15 years that Texas has made it to the second weekend. it's not wild to say that  this team (a team full of new players playing under a coach who honestly should not even be a head coach in this league) would be overachieving by making it to the sweet 16.

Pointing towards the last 15 years is completely sound logic though? Shit I guess I shouldn’t expect Texas football to ever compete for a title again then.

Regardless, my comment had little to do with the makeup of the team and more so with the idea that putting a ceiling on any likely tournament team is silly due to the unpredictable nature of the tournament itself. I’m good with setting personal expectations and understand if you want to take caution, but that’s much different than creating a fictional ceiling and using it to shit on everyone’s hopes four months before the season starts.

[Braff Zacklin 13587]

Lots of debating about experience, shooting, defending, height, coaching, etc., but for me, the key is going to be chemistry.

If these guys can come together like last year's squad did, then the sky's the limit. If they don't, then the 'Horns will be lucky to make it to the round of 32.

In that context, I feel like Rice is the biggest loss, but as long as Brock is on campus, there's plenty of glue to go around.

Chemistry is a fickle thing. It's impossible to predict or force. The 2022-23 North Carolina team is a great example of a group of ballers with a lot of talent but no cohesion.

So we can hyper-analyze every player and position (it's what off-seasons are for!), but we really won't know how things will play out until--drum roll, please--the lights come on**.

 

 

**And for once, I am using that phrase seriously instead of as a sarcastic dig against our resident Grumpy Old Man.

[shadow_operative 15932]

23 minutes ago, CashMcCoy said:

Pointing towards the last 15 years is completely sound logic though? Shit I guess I shouldn’t expect Texas football to ever compete for a title again then.

Regardless, my comment had little to do with the makeup of the team and more so with the idea that putting a ceiling on any likely tournament team is silly due to the unpredictable nature of the tournament itself. I’m good with setting personal expectations and understand if you want to take caution, but that’s much different than creating a fictional ceiling and using it to shit on everyone’s hopes four months before the season starts.

this is what i was talking about in the post that @Js1 mocked me for making. i'm "creating a fictional ceiling and using it to shit on everyone's hopes". really? for real? lol ok. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

34 minutes ago, CashMcCoy said:

Pointing towards the last 15 years is completely sound logic though?

also, yes- yes it is. i mean are you for real? we've been to the S16 once in the last 15 years, and only a handful of times in school history. that's some pretty useful information when trying to judge how far this upcoming team can go.

on a related note, i hate what college basketball has become among fans and pundits alike. essentially the regular season is akin to world cup qualifying, with the ncaa tourney being the world cup finals. the qualifying portion is completely pass/fail and means absolutely nothing beyond "did you or did you not get into the tournament?". all anybody cares about is the tourney, all we talk about is the tourney, all we remember is the tourney. go 30-5 and lose in the S16? a season to forget. go 20-11, get a 9 seed, make an unexpected run to the EE? magical season. i megaloathe this dynamic.

Edited June 27, 2023 by shadow_operative

[HookEm 2467]

But aren’t you also mocking everyone for “blind homerism” for expecting a S16? (Despite the fact that some national publications have us as high as #9 without the latest commitment?)

Everything doesn’t have to be so polar. It is possible to think there will be SOME learning curve for RT.  We can all debate the degree. Some may want to give him most of the credit for last year. Others may want to give him less. It doesn’t mean the opposite side are idiots or homers or doom and gloomers.

We are all just UT hoops fans wanting to talk about the sport we love.

[HookEm 2467]

I also think it is pretty pointless to look at what Texas has done in the last 15 years when considering this team. There has been a 180 degree change in how our teams are constructed. I may pull together a similar experience chart to the one I did above for some other UT teams.  Historically we rely HEAVILY on freshmen.  Last year was by far the most experienced team we have had and this one is similar. I think that lends a degree of predictability since we are dealing with adults.

None of that means we are even guaranteed to make the tournament. I just like our odds given what I’m seeing at this point.

[CashMcCoy 3199]

5 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

on a related note

Proceeds on a completely unrelated note (that I agree with, but had nothing to do with my take).

My point was literally just that the idea of putting a ceiling on a preseason top 25 team is, yes, wild when it comes to offseason discussion. I don’t care if that is how you choose to think, I can still say it’s meaningless to me. It’s also hilarious that you say the board will throw this back in your face if we make a run next season, knowing damn well you will be doing that exact thing if you are right and we lose early.

But really how in the fuck is the fact we made an Elite 8 run three months ago less important than what Rick Barnes did with Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson? I mean are you for real? In the end, neither is a true predictor of this year’s success, but 2023 is far more relevant than 2009.

[shadow_operative 15932]

7 minutes ago, CashMcCoy said:

Proceeds on a completely unrelated note (that I agree with, but had nothing to do with my take).

the note was related to the discussion we're having, to wit our prognosticating of our team's tourney hopes for next season, despite the fact that the actual season itself is months away. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

16 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I also think it is pretty pointless to look at what Texas has done in the last 15 years when considering this team.

seriously? you think it's pointless to acknowledge and/or glean information from the empirical fact that making deep tourney runs is a difficult and rare achievement for 99% of college basketball teams? that's...something.

[shadow_operative 15932]

33 minutes ago, HookEm said:

But aren’t you also mocking everyone for “blind homerism” for expecting a S16? (Despite the fact that some national publications have us as high as #9 without the latest commitment?)

 

"openly mocking"? "shitting on"? i thought i was supposed to be hypersensitive. jesus.

and yes, predicting that this team will make the S16 is absolutely blind homerism. we've had a handful of teams in our programs entire history that should expect to go that far heading into a season, and this team isn't one of them. 1991, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2010? sure. this team? the one that's never played together, and is being led by a coach who is empirically inferior to shaka smart and who honestly doesn't deserve this gig based on his 27 year career record as a coach? yes, saying that this team should roll out of bed and make the S16 (or further) is blind homerism.

also, might not want to point to preseason rankings as support for Texas making a deep run the year after a shitty UNC team that didn't even end up playing in any postseason tournament was the unanimous no.1 less than a year ago. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by shadow_operative

[Braff Zacklin 13587]

Please don't do this, Derka.

[txhorns 2409]

We also aren’t starting completely over from a coaching standpoint.  Beard didn’t coach any truly meaningful games last season outside of maybe the Gonzaga game.  RT was the coach last season, despite not being the architect of the team.  That helps pretty significantly with the learning curve.

 I will also argue that the circumstances in which RT became the head coach and the interim tag hanging over his head all year were hindrances to the team reaching its full potential.

[shadow_operative 15932]

5 minutes ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Please don't do this, Derka.

do what exactly? i'm out of line for not blindly making homerisitc predictions?

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by shadow_operative

[txhorns 2409]

Just now, shadow_operative said:

do what? 

I’m going to try to say this as nice as possible.  I think it would be in your best interest to back off of this thread for tonight and maybe reevaluate tomorrow.

[shadow_operative 15932]

3 minutes ago, txhorns said:

I’m going to try to say this as nice as possible.  I think it would be in your best interest to back off of this thread for tonight and maybe reevaluate tomorrow.

because i don't agree with the majority here? either blindly say that texas's baseline expectations should be to have one of the 5-6 best tourney runs in school history or gtfo? 

Edited June 27, 2023 by shadow_operative

[Pancho 44825]

The tournament can be a crap shoot, so I don't know that we can say what the ceiling is without some particulars such as seed, region, etc. The tournament is about matchups.

I’m also of the idea that looking at a team on paper and trying to gauge how the team should succeed will get you depressed and disappointed nearly 99% of the time. 

[txhorns 2409]

10 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

because i don't agree with the majority here? either blindly say that texas's baseline expectations should be to have one of the 5-6 best tourney runs in school history or gtfo? 

No, because it’s pretty obvious that you are getting worked up over the current ongoing argument and I doubt that that is good for your health.  It is also bad for the thread.  The vast majority of fans will not back down from the mindset that we are a S16 team next year considering we just played in the EE, return 4 of our top 7 players and added Abmas plus the other guys.

[hobbes2702 13044]

This team fucks. That is all

[Burt Macklin 19026]

I agree this team is similarly talented to last year’s with some different strengths and weaknesses and a lot will come down to team chemistry and ability of the coaching staff to develop as the year goes on.

 

I do find the comparison’s to how far last year’s team made a little weird considering we lost in the EE largely because Disu was out and most of our guards were banged up. We easily could’ve been a final four team last year if we stay healthy.  Either way the tournament is wholly unpredictable and comparing how far a similarly talented team last year made it doesn’t have a ton of connection to how far this team will go, good or bad. 

[Catdaddyhorn 3445]

8 hours ago, HookEm said:

I get that we won't know the chemistry till we see it on the floor.  Last year we actually only returned 49% of the minutes and 52% of the scoring from 2021.  We had lost full-time starters Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey.  Tre Mitchell, Devin Askew and Jase Febres had also all started games.  Sir'Jabari Rice and Tyrese Hunter had barely arrived on campus at this point and Dylan Disu hadn't started a single game for Texas and was still recovering from injury.

This year we return 43% of the minutes (not a ton less than last year)... but only 36% of the scoring.  Just like last year we are returning three starters and breaking in a couple of new, but experienced guards.  So I guess subtracting a couple of in-season wins is reasonable, but I wouldn't go beyond that. 

As txhorns mentions, EVERYONE is going to have a lot of turnover.  KU is also only returning 39% of their scoring and they may be the #1 team in the country.

As far as coaching goes, I agree it is a downgrade losing Chris Beard from the off-season.  We retained almost all of the staff though, so there is good continuity.  I personally think Frank Haith is a SLIGHT upgrade over Donewald, but others may disagree.  I also think Cory Schlesinger is a SLIGHT upgrade over John Reilly, but both are great.  Losing Beard does hurt though.  I would say that is good for a couple of losses as well. 

I think "on paper" the team is a little better, and the pieces seem to fit better. But with the above intangibles there is more risk.  So for me personally, I will call it a wash.  I would be pretty disappointed if we don't make the 2nd weekend with this group.

 

Coach A

Coach B

 

I'm actually curious as to why some would consider Bob Donewald Jr to be the superior assistant to Frank Haith. I wonder what specific thing they would be basing this opinion on. 

[closetohumping 17442]

9 hours ago, Pancho said:

The tournament can be a crap shoot, so I don't know that we can say what the ceiling is without some particulars such as seed, region, etc. The tournament is about matchups.

I’m also of the idea that looking at a team on paper and trying to gauge how the team should succeed will get you depressed and disappointed nearly 99% of the time. 

This. We should all be able to agree on this.  There is no upside or downside for the tourney