Texas Basketball 2023-24

[HookEm 2467]

All of that is fair and I agree. You can have a great team and run into a bad matchup or get cold for a single game and you are out.  Even if you get a one seed you shouldn’t be too disappointed if you don’t make the Final Four.

So when I say we have a team that should make the Sweet Sixteen what I really mean is that we have a team that should be able to get a 4 seed.  And I don’t think that is blind homerism given that we are ranked anywhere from #9 to #23 in all of the polls that I have seen and that doesn’t include our latest pickup.  

[idigTexas 2289]

8 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

 

Coach A

Coach B

 

I'm actually curious as to why some would consider Bob Donewald Jr to be the superior assistant to Frank Haith. I wonder what specific thing they would be basing this opinion on. 

Clearly you are not familiar with that amazing 2010-2011 Shanghai Sharks team.  Sure, they only went 8-17, but their ceiling was 4 games at best.  Donewald single handedly willed them to 4 wins above expectation.  

Seriously, I think seeing Texas actually have an offense that worked last season elevated Donewald to "guru" status in the eyes of a lot of fans.  I have no idea whether he deserves the credit he has been given, more, or less, but he was in charge of the offense, and it appeared to be the most capable that most of us can remember.  That does not mean that we we can't be as successful, or more so, with Haith in charge, but not everyone shares that opinion.  

[idigTexas 2289]

2 hours ago, closetohumping said:

This. We should all be able to agree on this.  There is no upside or downside for the tourney

What site do you think this is?

[Js1 85353]

56 minutes ago, HookEm said:

All of that is fair and I agree. You can have a great team and run into a bad matchup or get cold for a single game and you are out.  Even if you get a one seed you shouldn’t be too disappointed if you don’t make the Final Four.

So when I say we have a team that should make the Sweet Sixteen what I really mean is that we have a team that should be able to get a 4 seed.  And I don’t think that is blind homerism given that we are ranked anywhere from #9 to #23 in all of the polls that I have seen and that doesn’t include our latest pickup.  

I agree with this. 

[idigTexas 2289]

1 hour ago, HookEm said:

All of that is fair and I agree. You can have a great team and run into a bad matchup or get cold for a single game and you are out.  Even if you get a one seed you shouldn’t be too disappointed if you don’t make the Final Four.

So when I say we have a team that should make the Sweet Sixteen what I really mean is that we have a team that should be able to get a 4 seed.  And I don’t think that is blind homerism given that we are ranked anywhere from #9 to #23 in all of the polls that I have seen and that doesn’t include our latest pickup.  

I think seeding is likely the best measure of a season's success more so than what actually happens in the tournament, but it also creates expectation.  Of course, if we routinely get a top four seed but fail to make the second weekend more often than not, we are not going to be content.  

For me personally, I expect to make the tournament every year.  I also expect to reach or exceed the potential of our seed the majority of the time.  I can live with an occasional failure, but there needs to be an obvious reason (injuries would be the most common cause). 

I would love to see the basketball program reach a level where we are a 4-seed or higher most years.  I was hopeful we were going to reach that level with Beard.  I don't know whether Terry can achieve that, but time will tell.  I'm not sure where my acceptable level of success is, probably peak Barnes era.  

Edited June 27, 2023 by idigTexas
OU sucks

[HookEm 2467]

Here are the odds of advancing to various rounds based on seeding. 

To "expect" a Sweet 16, you really need to be a 1 or 2 seed.  As a 4 seed you have less than a coin flip chance of making it.  So if someone hears me say that I expect to make the Sweet 16, it could easily be interpreted that as I expect us to be a 1 or 2 seed.  I agree that would be a pretty sunshine pumping take for this particular group.

So... from here out I think I will talk about expectations in terms of either seeding or ranking.  To expect a Final Four, you need a team that is more dominant than we have ever had at Texas.   But I think it is reasonable to expect that Texas will get a 4 seed or better in most years given our resources. 

[closetohumping 17442]

1 hour ago, HookEm said:

All of that is fair and I agree. You can have a great team and run into a bad matchup or get cold for a single game and you are out.  Even if you get a one seed you shouldn’t be too disappointed if you don’t make the Final Four.

So when I say we have a team that should make the Sweet Sixteen what I really mean is that we have a team that should be able to get a 4 seed.  And I don’t think that is blind homerism given that we are ranked anywhere from #9 to #23 in all of the polls that I have seen and that doesn’t include our latest pickup.  

Yep

[Catdaddyhorn 3445]

55 minutes ago, idigTexas said:

Clearly you are not familiar with that amazing 2010-2011 Shanghai Sharks team.  Sure, they only went 8-17, but their ceiling was 4 games at best.  Donewald single handedly willed them to 4 wins above expectation.  

Seriously, I think seeing Texas actually have an offense that worked last season elevated Donewald to "guru" status in the eyes of a lot of fans.  I have no idea whether he deserves the credit he has been given, more, or less, but he was in charge of the offense, and it appeared to be the most capable that most of us can remember.  That does not mean that we we can't be as successful, or more so, with Haith in charge, but not everyone shares that opinion.  

I agree the offense was the best looking in terms of player and ball movement Ive seen at UT in awhile or maybe ever, but it looked like absolute crap only a year prior with the same guy running it. So I dont know whether it was the system or the players who were the major ingredient . As fans of the Longhorns we tend to focus on our team and don't really have a realistic sense of how truly atrocious offense can be for most of college basketball across the board and we tend to attribute poor offensive play to systems and coaching. When in reality a lot of it should all be chalked up to how disciplined your personnel is with their shot selection. In our case, last year, shot selection was our major core competency relative to other teams. We just didn't take a lot of bad shots. That tells me that our ridiculous level of experience and overall player discipline was doing the heavy lifting in how well we executed on the offensive end last year. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Catdaddyhorn

[HookEm 2467]

FWIW, here are our seeds over the last 20 years.

• 2023 - 2
• 2022 - 6
• 2021 - 3
• 2020 - Covid. Likely 7-10
• 2019 - Nope
• 2018 - 10
• 2017 - Nope
• 2016 - 6
• 2015 - 11
• 2014 - 7
• 2013 - Nope
• 2012 - 11
• 2011 - 4
• 2010 - 8 
• 2009 - 7
• 2008 - 2
• 2007 - 4
• 2006 - 2
• 2005 - 8
• 2004 - 3
• 2003 - 1

Man, what a crappy run we had from 2012-2020.  Thanks a lot Shaka.  

Who knows if we will get back to where we were from 2000-2011.  We always recruited well, but the highly recruited players were fools gold.  I think NIL and the transfer portal will help us a lot.  Now we can still go get the most coveted players, but they aren't development projects. They are full-grown men with skillz.  They are proven commodities and all-conference type players. 

[Js1 85353]

23 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

but it looked like absolute crap only a year prior with the same guy running it.

Wasn't the offense handed to Donewald in the offseason between Beard Year 1 and Beard Year 2? 

[idigTexas 2289]

59 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

I agree the offense was the best looking in terms of player and ball movement Ive seen at UT in awhile or maybe ever, but it looked like absolute crap only a year prior with the same guy running it. So I dont know whether it was the system or the players who were the major ingredient . As fans of the Longhorns we tend to focus on our team and don't really have a realistic sense of how truly atrocious offense can be for most of college basketball across the board and we tend to attribute poor offensive play to systems and coaching. When in reality a lot of it should all be chalked up to how disciplined your personnel is with their shot selection. In our case, last year, shot selection was our major core competency relative to other teams. We just didn't take a lot of bad shots. That tells me that our ridiculous level of experience and overall player discipline was doing the heavy lifting in how well we executed on the offensive end last year. 

Agreed.

 

[MotownHorn 1767]

What's Donewald doing now? Seems sort of odd if he left without a future destination.

[closetohumping 17442]

12 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

What's Donewald doing now? Seems sort of odd if he left without a future destination.

Coaching in NAM.

[MotownHorn 1767]

If the guy is such a genius and losing him was such a big loss, why has no one else hired him?

[closetohumping 17442]

6 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

If the guy is such a genius and losing him was such a big loss, why has no one else hired him?

Negotiations.  He will have a Lebron style announcement show on ESPN. "I'm taking my talents to South........South Beach....Community College.....yes the one in Pompano Beach."

[MotownHorn 1767]

I had to hear for weeks about how losing Donewald was one of many signs that RT sucked and we were headed for a 3 year long disaster before we finally fired RT...

....and now this dude can't even get a job?!?!?!?!?

[Hermanator 7063]

13 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

 

Coach A

Coach B

 

I'm actually curious as to why some would consider Bob Donewald Jr to be the superior assistant to Frank Haith. I wonder what specific thing they would be basing this opinion on. 

He wasn't ever dumb enough to choose to be aggy? 

Assistants are like referees. They only matter if they really suck. 

Just like Terry wasn't the reason or even any semblance of the reason Beard was a beast coach these dudes are irrelevant unless they suck ass. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

19 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Assistants are like referees. They only matter if they really suck. 

worst take in this thread. from recruiting, to player development, to forming bonds with players that a HC can't form, to being the guy who can get the HC's message across in a better way, to being an offensive or defensive guru, assistant coaches can make all of the difference. as rick barnes how much russell springmann and frank haith meant to him and to this program's success. assistants play a huge role for any team worth a damn. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by shadow_operative

[shadow_operative 15932]

4 hours ago, HookEm said:

FWIW, here are our seeds over the last 20 years.

• 2023 - 2
• 2022 - 6
• 2021 - 3
• 2020 - Covid. Likely 7-10
• 2019 - Nope
• 2018 - 10
• 2017 - Nope
• 2016 - 6
• 2015 - 11
• 2014 - 7
• 2013 - Nope
• 2012 - 11
• 2011 - 4
• 2010 - 8 
• 2009 - 7
• 2008 - 2
• 2007 - 4
• 2006 - 2
• 2005 - 8
• 2004 - 3
• 2003 - 1

Man, what a crappy run we had from 2012-2020.  Thanks a lot Shaka.  

Who knows if we will get back to where we were from 2000-2011.  We always recruited well, but the highly recruited players were fools gold.  I think NIL and the transfer portal will help us a lot.  Now we can still go get the most coveted players, but they aren't development projects. They are full-grown men with skillz.  They are proven commodities and all-conference type players. 

2005- sigh. would definitely have been in green, possibly a 1 or 2 seed if not for losing PJ and LA midway through the season. that run through the aughts was magical. 

[Hermanator 7063]

9 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

worst take in this thread. from recruiting, to player development, to forming bonds with players that a HC can't form, to being the guy who can get the HC's message across in a better way, to being an offensive or defensive guru, assistant coaches can make all of the difference. as rick barnes how much russell springmann and frank haith meant to him and to this program's success. assistants play a huge role for any team worth a damn. 

I didn't say they didn't play a role in success. If that was the case it wouldn't matter if they did suck. Their recruiting aspect is greatly diminished these days as the top guys who go to college are going to chase the NIL bag and playing time as a freshman and the assistants have no say in either. 

Assistants who can scout talent better than their peers are the valuable ones in this day. The 1 and done has been diminished in importance since NIL and portal makes it so more first round/draft fringe guys who would previously go to the draft are staying longer and taking away minutes from freshmen. Unless you're the elite of the elite you aren't making as big a mark as a freshman anymore. Even last year's top HS recruit went to Duke, did jack shit, and got drafted 12th as a defensive center and offensive project. 

As far as all the xs and os and team chemistry type stuff the assistants are only going to be as good as their head coach's ceiling allows. 

That's why they're like refs. They play a part, are part of the game, but the best ones' work goes mostly unnoticed while the shitty ones stand out like crazy. 

[Catdaddyhorn 3445]

3 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

2005- sigh. would definitely have been in green, possibly a 1 or 2 seed if not for losing PJ and LA midway through the season. that run through the aughts was magical. 

Yeah but losing LA guaranteed that he would come back for his sophomore season on our elite 8 team. Not sure he comes back if he doesn't get injured.  

[jimmyjazz 45963]

9 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Yeah but losing LA guaranteed that he would come back for his sophomore season on our elite 8 team. Not sure he comes back if he doesn't get injured.  

I don't think there's any way he would have come back.  No slight on LaMarcus, but I remember thinking it was a pretty odd turn of events when he came back for his soph year due to injury.

[shadow_operative 15932]

35 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Yeah but losing LA guaranteed that he would come back for his sophomore season on our elite 8 team. Not sure he comes back if he doesn't get injured.  

good point. 

[MotownHorn 1767]

On 6/26/2023 at 8:17 PM, shadow_operative said:

also just gonna take this moment to point out that this is shaping up to be a classic case of one of those times where i say something that isn't even particularly critical, but because it isn't all sunshine and roses people end up getting really upset at me, convincing themselves that i'm "doing this on purpose", and posting things like, "but Derka said we would suck this season!!1!1!!" if we end up in fact doing well. 

My dude. You have been saying our team/RT is going to underachieve all year since Beard's dumbass got arrested.

You've been one of the most pessimistic people on the board in 2023. And you've been wrong almost every time.

It's a not a matter of sunshine pumping vs. realistic expectations. You've been doing the opposite of sunshine pumping for a half year now and been wrong almost every time so far. 

[Braff Zacklin 13589]

I'll say this: I'd rather deal with Derka than the passive-aggressive shits that roll in 24 hours later, after everything has settled down, just to stir shit up again.

At least Derka admits he has a problem.

[shadow_operative 15932]

12 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

My dude. You have been saying our team/RT is going to underachieve all year since Beard's dumbass got arrested.

You've been one of the most pessimistic people on the board in 2023. And you've been wrong almost every time.

It's a not a matter of sunshine pumping vs. realistic expectations. You've been doing the opposite of sunshine pumping for a half year now and been wrong almost every time so far. 

🙄 acknowledging that RT wasn't the ideal candidate and that the first month of the offseason went poorly does not equal pessimism. also, you say i've been "wrong"? about what, exactly? the season is months away from even starting and i haven't made any predictions about how it will go. what are all of these instances of me "being wrong" that you speak of? 

this will fall on deaf ears, but it's really wild how you don't see that every single post you make towards me is not only combative, but posted through a "you're wrong and i'm right i fucking owned you!!!!", skip bayless/shannon sharpe/morning talk show type lens. you don't post this way towards anybody but me. that's a fact. you've droned on and on about how you simply try to have adult conversations with me and how i always pick fights with you and "abuse" you. that has never been true. the opposite of that is true. the day you realize that this entire board improves immediately. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by shadow_operative

[MotownHorn 1767]

10 minutes ago, Braff Zacklin said:

I'll say this: I'd rather deal with Derka than the passive-aggressive shits that roll in 24 hours later, after everything has settled down, just to stir shit up again.

At least Derka admits he has a problem.

My man did you ever consider that 24 hours ago I was keeping myself from replying in order to not feed the beast?

Or that, again, right here right now I will not engage and let it pass?

I think I'm allowed to post my perspective, though. Derka has been arguing the worse case scenario for a half year now trying to look smart on a dumb message board. And has been wrong almost every time.

Edited June 28, 2023 by MotownHorn

[Braff Zacklin 13589]

My man, did you ever consider just letting it go?

[MotownHorn 1767]

I don't think anything I said was incorrect or out of bounds

Y'all have a great night

[shadow_operative 15932]

6 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

I don't think anything I said was incorrect or out of bounds

Y'all have a great night

if you're going to come in here talk shit to me about what a pessimist i've been and how i'm always wrong, is it seriously too much to ask that you reference, like, anything to back it up? 

you seem to want a cookie for not "feeding the beast" (???) last night but then going ahead and doing it 24 hours later. so tonight you've come in here, you've insulted me, and now you want to dip, all with zero commentary on Texas Hoops, with nothing that advances the thread. just a drive by insulting of derka and you're outta here. and you're the good guy? i'm the problem? dude, grow up. stop being so combative. post about Texas Hoops. that's it. that's all. too easy. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by shadow_operative

[closetohumping 17442]

I guess poking fun at Bobby donewald really woke this thread up 

Edited June 28, 2023 by closetohumping

[jimmyjazz 45963]

 

[deter 314]

grow up, stop being so combative.....lol

[Snake Diggity 4625]

This roster fucks.  Deep.  Size.  Athleticism. Experience.  Inside scorers.  Outside scorers.  Inside defenders.

This roster has no concrete limitations.

[CycleTex87 2970]

Show me a loss?

[KingBobo81 535]

I think 2nd place conference finish and Sweet 16 is a reasonable expectation for the talent on the roster. If some of the "ifs" go our way - Mitchell takes a major step up, Hunter plays more consistent/is healthy, Disu stays healthy, etc., the team could easily surpass those expectations.

[cochamps 1879]

12 hours ago, closetohumping said:

I guess poking fun at Bobby donewald really woke this thread up 

Determining the impact of an assistant will always be difficult to determine. But there is a lot of dissing Donewald considering that he has an NBA background and is widely credited for helping LeBron develop.  I know there are some strange ports of call on his resume, but our offense last year was considerably above average.

Edited June 28, 2023 by cochamps

[closetohumping 17442]

10 minutes ago, cochamps said:

Determining the impact of an assistant will always be difficult to determine. But there is a lot of dissing Donewald considering that he has an NBA background and is widely credited for helping LeBron develop.  I know there are some strange ports of call on his resume, but our offense last year was considerably above average.

I read I think here that he wasn’t happy that he wasn’t selected to be the interim.  Maybe there was a rift idk.  I think all some of us asked was to give Rodney more than a month before the I told you sos ramped up 

[HookEm 2467]

I got bored yesterday and decided to look at the experience we had returning for every Texas team in the last 20 years. Note that for this analysis, transfers with experience count the same as players who have played together... so it isn't perfect.  Regardless, it really shows how much our strategy has changed with NIL, transfer portal and COVID extra years.  

This year we have a top-3 team in terms of career experience, minutes, points and starts.  The starters are particularly experienced.  

2012-2018 had some really inexperienced teams.  And guess what, we sucked ass for that stretch.  Also, check out Durant's year (2007).  Yikes!  Average experience for the WHOLE team was 0.4 years.

 

[CTC2 2797]

13 hours ago, closetohumping said:

I guess poking fun at Bobby donewald really woke this thread up 

I can’t take anyone seriously who can’t recognize that he had a hand in our success last year and was part of the positive development of several players. 
 

[idigTexas 2289]

17 minutes ago, CTC2 said:

I can’t take anyone seriously who can’t recognize that he had a hand in our success last year and was part of the positive development of several players. 
 

So did South Austin's mom.  Some people claim Terry didn't have any part in our success last year as well.  There is a lot of credit to be handed out to a number of people.  I think the point that was being made is that Donewald was likely not an irreplaceable piece.  Let's hope that's the case.

[closetohumping 17442]

25 minutes ago, CTC2 said:

I can’t take anyone seriously who can’t recognize that he had a hand in our success last year and was part of the positive development of several players. 
 

Programs lose great assistants right?  Hopefully the remaining group can pick up the slack.  Not sure if you checked his resume but the guy is sort of flighty. Maybe Rodney couldn’t do anything about it?

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

natty or bust!

[Herpa Derpa 6126]

27 minutes ago, idigTexas said:

So did South Austin's mom.  Some people claim Terry didn't have any part in our success last year as well.  There is a lot of credit to be handed out to a number of people.  I think the point that was being made is that Donewald was likely not an irreplaceable piece.  Let's hope that's the case.

No one is irreplaceable. 

[txhorns 2409]

11 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

No one is irreplaceable. 

Except South Austin’s mom

[ryskey 447]

2 hours ago, HookEm said:

I got bored yesterday and decided to look at the experience we had returning for every Texas team in the last 20 years. Note that for this analysis, transfers with experience count the same as players who have played together... so it isn't perfect.  Regardless, it really shows how much our strategy has changed with NIL, transfer portal and COVID extra years.  

This year we have a top-3 team in terms of career experience, minutes, points and starts.  The starters are particularly experienced.  

2012-2018 had some really inexperienced teams.  And guess what, we sucked ass for that stretch.  Also, check out Durant's year (2007).  Yikes!  Average experience for the WHOLE team was 0.4 years.

 

 

If you were to regress our final ranking for each of those years with one metric, which one is the most predictive?

 

[ryskey 447]

19 minutes ago, ryskey said:

 

If you were to regress our final ranking for each of those years with one of these metrics, which one is the most predictive?

 

Corrected my question per above shitpost.   Previous year's win/loss margin probably isn't predictive at all for the next year, depends on who returned from that team.  

Edited June 28, 2023 by ryskey

[cochamps 1879]

Despite my post defending Donewald : "I have faith in Haith".  😄

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

More like Dumbwald!

[CTC2 2797]

2 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Programs lose great assistants right?  Hopefully the remaining group can pick up the slack.  Not sure if you checked his resume but the guy is sort of flighty. Maybe Rodney couldn’t do anything about it?

I know exactly what is on his resume and see it as the guy has forgotten more about basketball than most people know. I did visit with him a couple of times and also spoke with the parents of some players who held him in high regard.  My opinion is just reflective of those conversations and observing the staff in game. 
Wasn’t suggesting that we were going to suck because he wasn’t there. Just that he was not some scrub who could easily be replaced.  I heard from several people close to the program that his international experience was a positive. 
Haith may be just great. Don’t know anything about him other than it seems he used to be the bagman at a couple of stops. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Time will tell. 
I’m fairly optimistic about next year if this team can develop the on and off court chemistry displayed last year. The team is living together again in the same place so I’m hopeful.