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2023 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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henrygandorf
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FartingDreamer
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Am I the only one that can't stand the sight of Altuve, Bregman or Tucker?  Something about each one of them just pisses me off.  

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WBT

WBT 20656

Posted
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8 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

no one knows exactly why Vasquez wasn't signed.  That intrigues me. 

 

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Wasn't it because he didn't want to be a back up?

I mean, yeah.  He didn't sign here because he spent the last 2 months of the season and the playoffs sitting behind an older, worse player.  I'm not seeing the mystery.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19147

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5 minutes ago, WBT said:

 

I mean, yeah.  He didn't sign here because he spent the last 2 months of the season and the playoffs sitting behind an older, worse player.  I'm not seeing the mystery.

He only caught a no hitter in the WS. Our fans response online was to wonder if St. Maldonado called the game from the dugout. Good grief. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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So through today, the Astros’ offense as a team has a K rate of 25.4%. Last year’s was 19.5%. That’s a pretty significant jump. 

K% and BB% tend to reach their level fairly quickly in season. Hopefully this isn’t it. But probably this offense is significantly worse than last year’s. And it’s extremely likely the pitching will be  worse too. Wheeee.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18945

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3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He only caught a no hitter in the WS. Our fans response online was to wonder if St. Maldonado called the game from the dugout. Good grief. 

He's also a lot more expensive.

Just now, Hank Chinaski said:

So through today, the Astros’ offense as a team has a K rate of 25.4%. Last year’s was 19.5%. That’s a pretty significant jump. 

K% and BB% tend to reach their level fairly quickly in season. Hopefully this isn’t it. But probably this offense is significantly worse than last year’s. And it’s extremely likely the pitching will be  worse too. Wheeee.

Maybe. Report back in July.

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Make em eat Taco Bell

Make em eat Taco Bell 1549

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54 minutes ago, WBT said:

 

I mean, yeah.  He didn't sign here because he spent the last 2 months of the season and the playoffs sitting behind an older, worse player.  I'm not seeing the mystery.

the management couldn't be that stupid to bypass an obviously better option. That's why I'm not sure playing time was the reason, maybe a mix of money and pt, but it's speculation either way - no hard evidence, no quote from either side. 

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Hank Chinaski

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7 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

the management couldn't be that stupid to bypass an obviously better option. That's why I'm not sure playing time was the reason, maybe a mix of money and pt, but it's speculation either way - no hard evidence, no quote from either side. 

What management? We didn’t need management this off-season because we’re the Astros. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19147

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4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Where are you seeing that base? Spotrac shows a base of $4 million.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/martin-maldonado-8699/

Guy i was reading had it wrong but Sportrac was super weird with him last year and not showing vesting options and escalators so the whole thing has been kind of weird. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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Just now, formermav43 said:

I just don’t see the loss of Verlander  making a 20 game difference. 

Loss of Verlander’s 1.75 ERA over 175 innings + loss of Altuve and his career-best OPS+ for at least 40% of the season (and what we do get is unlikely to be as good as last year) + regression from the bullpen. That all adds up.

46 minutes ago, WBT said:

Over

 

42 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Me too. Still. 

Over 95? What am I missing here?

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formermav43

formermav43 4606

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1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Loss of Verlander’s 1.75 ERA over 175 innings + loss of Altuve and his career-best OPS+ for at least 40% of the season (and what we do get is unlikely to be as good as last year) + regression from the bullpen. That all adds up.

I’m more bullish on Altuve, hoping he’ll play closer to 120 games than 100.

But even so, right now, this team has 6 above average or better players in the starting lineup. Altuve makes 7. Even if he’s not as good as last year, some might be better to offset that. It’s the same lineup as last year even with nothing from Brantley, except swapping in Abreu for Gurriel. It’s hard to feel too negative about that.

There was bound to be regression from the bullpen in the aggregate. But you almost have to posit regression from EVERYONE in the bullpen AND from every starter to get to a “tick better than mediocre.”

You could be right, of course. Baseball is quirky. But I think it’s hard to objectively make that case at this point. It’s an emotional overreaction to a bad stretch at the start of the season. There was a 3-6 stretch as late as last August, including a sweep by the As. But nobody panics when you’re 100 games in.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9525

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34 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Loss of Verlander’s 1.75 ERA over 175 innings + loss of Altuve and his career-best OPS+ for at least 40% of the season (and what we do get is unlikely to be as good as last year) + regression from the bullpen. That all adds up.

 

Over 95? What am I missing here?

Don’t forget 26 fewer games against the AL west

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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11 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

But I think it’s hard to objectively make that case at this point. It’s an emotional overreaction to a bad stretch at the start of the season. There was a 3-6 stretch as late as last August, including a sweep by the As. But nobody panics when you’re 100 games in.

What you’re saying is reasonable and I hope you’re right; but I disagree with this part. Fangraphs projects 88 wins right now, and that’s based on nothing but objective data. Now obviously they don’t always nail it, but it is objective support for my subjective forecast.

I am probably not as high on Brown (at least for this year) as others, and he’s essentially replacing the best performing pitcher in baseball. Again, if he allows twice the runs JV did (per inning), I’d be ecstatic. I’d bet the over.

I’m also not that high on Pena. He’s good (not great) defensively (gold glove notwithstanding) and he’s not a very good offensive player. I don’t see any reason to assume he’ll improve at the plate just because he has a year in the bigs. He’s probably a 100 wRC+ guy unless he stops swinging at bullshit (which, to this point, he’s shown no inclination to do). 

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uoftorange

uoftorange 1387

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31 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I’m also not that high on Pena. He’s good (not great) defensively (gold glove notwithstanding) and he’s not a very good offensive player. I don’t see any reason to assume he’ll improve at the plate just because he has a year in the bigs. He’s probably a 100 wRC+ guy unless he stops swinging at bullshit (which, to this point, he’s shown no inclination to do). 

He did the exact same thing last season in the middle, then made a big time big league adjustment.  He's probably not Playoff MVP at the norm, but I think he very well may be September Pena.  We'll see if he makes the adjustment, he simply just stop swinging at those pitches for most of 3+ months last year, I think he can again

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5301

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Posted (edited)

There's usually 1 or 2 times each season where we go through a rough patch and just can't seem to figure out how to win, and I decide to quit watching on TV until I see that we had an easy W. I simply get tired of spending my leisure time being frustrated. Rarely ever lasts more than a game or two.

Not sure it's ever happened 9 games into the season. Woof.

Edited by Storm the Field
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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5 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

There's usually 1 or 2 times each season where we go through a rough patch and just can't seem to figure out how to win, and I decide to quit watching on TV until I see that we had an easy W. I simply get tired of spending my leisure time being frustrated. Rarely ever lasts more than a game or two.

Not sure it's ever happened 9 games into the season. Woof.

They’ve had stretches like this the last few years for sure. Thing is, Springer, Correa, Verlander, Cole, Altuve (for a long time) aren’t walking through that door.

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8087

Posted
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During the opening series, I predicted we'd be 5-5 after tomorrow. Guess I was overconfident. But let's get as close to that mark as we can. 

This rough stretch isn't all about us stumbling around. Not that we haven't done our share of that, but we've also run into some decent opponents. I don't think any of them will outdo Houston for the full season, but on the proverbial "any given day"...well, we see what can happen. Time to right the ship. 
 

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