2023 Houston Astros Thread

[The Dog 44020]

 

[henrygandorf 29189]

christ you guys could fuck up a wet dream.  as far as i'm concerned, this just makes the myles straw deal seem even more like an ass-raping, since yainer allowed us to deal lee and plug a hole.  there are a shit ton of young catchers out there - the prospect list is constantly full of them.  a lot of them are already up and doing jack squat.  we just had a good draft.  onward.

[kevwun 15774]

5 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Just because his trade value isn't high doesn't mean it isn't as high as it will ever be. 

Yeah, we're talking about a guy whose ceiling is probably backup catcher.  He looks terrible at the plate again in another shot in the majors and they would have been trading him for someone like Will Smith next year at this time.

Edited July 28, 2023 by kevwun

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

10 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

You guys are worried about losing Korey Lee? Okay then. 

Not worried about losing Lee; worried about trading more value than you get in return for guys that don’t move the needle. That’s problematic. 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

We needed a bullpen arm, and I never really expected we'd get one of the top names. So I'm fine with Graveman I guess. I didn't care for him much when he traded for him in 2021. I was convinced he was on his way to blowing game 6 of the ALCS before the strike 'em out throw 'em out DP. Hopefully he'll be better this time around. 

[David Dennison 18854]

Just now, Hank Chinaski said:

Not worried about losing Lee; worried about trading more value than you get in return for guys that don’t move the needle. That’s problematic. 

Why do you assume that's the case with this trade?

[henrygandorf 29189]

1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Not worried about losing Lee; worried about trading more value than you get in return for guys that don’t move the needle. That’s problematic. 

graveman is a high leverage guy with closer experience.  he could very well be pitching in the 7th or 8th in several important playoff games.  he's not the top of the list, but he's up there.  he'll influence more games than a 4th outfielder would.

[LCHorn 2616]

Just now, henrygandorf said:

graveman is a high leverage guy with closer experience.  he could very well be pitching in the 7th or 8th in several important playoff games.  he's not the top of the list, but he's up there.  he'll influence more games than a 4th outfielder would.

That's the other part of this; he's been pretty shitty this year.  You're basically using him as a substitute for 15 innings from Stanek and 15 innings from Seth Martinez, both of whom similar, or better, peripherals.  

[HtownHorn 14677]

Just now, LCHorn said:

That's the other part of this; he's been pretty shitty this year.  You're basically using him as a substitute for 15 innings from Stanek and 15 innings from Seth Martinez, both of whom similar, or better, peripherals.  

Without acknowledging that the Astros will utilize his better pitches almost exclusively. I mean Dusty can fuck up anything, but Graveman is better than Martinez.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

Korey Lee is a 25 year old in AAA with an OPS lower than Grae Kessinger, Rylan Bannon, and Bligh fucking Madris.

Having another option for the 8th inning of a one run game in September this year is far more important than 30 games next season of a catcher batting .208 with 2 home runs.

Those of you crying about this can pull out your scrapbooks of Abraham Toro, Brett Phillips, and the rest of the prospects that people have shit their pants about losing.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Chuckie Finster

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

10 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Why do you assume that's the case with this trade?

Graveman is a decent relief pitcher. He’s been worth about 2/3 of a win per year over the last 3 years. So, maybe he’s worth a win or so over the next 1.5 years.

Lee is a good defensive catcher with 6 years of team control. If he catches 35-45 games per year as a backup to Diaz, he’s probably worth about 1 win per year even if his bat never comes around. Maybe/probably more.

Look, none of this is the end of the world or anything. But trading away more future value than you get in return isn’t generally a winning formula if you’re not adding real difference makers. And guys with 4.85 FIP aren’t real difference makers; they’re just guys.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Hank Chinaski

[David Dennison 18854]

Just now, Hank Chinaski said:

Graveman is a decent relief pitcher. He’s been worth about 2/3 of a win per year over the last 3 years. So, maybe he’s worth a win or so over the next 1.5 years.

Lee is a good defensive catcher with 6 years of team control. If he catches 35-45 games per year as a backup to Diaz, he’s probably worth about 1 win per year even if his bat never comes around. Maybe/probably more. 

Oh well. Next man up.

[closetojumping 62604]

7 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Graveman is a decent relief pitcher. He’s been worth about 2/3 of a win per year over the last 3 years. So, maybe he’s worth a win or so over the next 1.5 years.

Lee is a good defensive catcher with 6 years of team control. If he catches 35-45 games per year as a backup to Diaz, he’s probably worth about 1 win per year even if his bat never comes around. Maybe/probably more.

Look, none of this is the end of the world or anything. But trading away more future value than you get in return isn’t generally a winning formula if you’re not adding real difference makers. And guys with 4.85 FIP aren’t real difference makers; they’re just guys.

The Astros have two catchers ahead of Lee with negative WARs each for this season (Maldonado and Salazar). What should make anyone believe that Lee will play spot duty and suddenly manufacture 1 WAR via those outings? That’s a stretch given what we already know. 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

It’s not that Lee was traded, it’s WHO he was traded for. Every single outlet has us as losing that trade. 

[David Dennison 18854]

4 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

It’s not that Lee was traded, it’s WHO he was traded for. Every single outlet has us as losing that trade. 

Who cares?

[mbtex 683]

Lee was going to have no impact on this season. Graveman will 

[LCHorn 2616]

1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

It’s not that Lee was traded, it’s WHO he was traded for. Every single outlet has us as losing that trade. 

Exactly, and thank you.  Obviously there were exceptions but the beauty of Luhnow's trades is you could see the nerdy math behind most of them.   If you think Graveman will outperform his season thus far then that's a prediction that's unsupported by what he's done so far. 

Personally, I was also holding out hope that Lee sitting around needing at bats would give Brown leverage to fire Maldy out into the great limbo of free agency.  Now I have to read Chandler Rome writing about how valuable he was to the development of pitchers like Javier and Brown and how you can't quantify leadership.

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

Just now, closetojumping said:

The Astros have two catchers ahead of Lee with negative WARs each for this season (Maldonado and Salazar). What should make anyone believe that Lee will play spot duty and suddenly manufacture 1 WAR via those outings? That’s a stretch given what we already know. 

Nothing is a sure thing, of course. But Lee projects as an average big league catcher based on scouting grades, performance to date, etc. Fangraphs, whose prospect writers are generally as good as anyone’s, has him graded as a 50 future value guy, equivalent of an average MLB starter. He has a high floor because he’s good defensively at a defense-first position. He better than Maldonado right now.

He isn’t exciting, but a catching combo of Diaz-Lee for the next 6 years very likely puts the Astros near the top of the league in terms of positional value.

Again, it’s not about Lee per se. It’s about not properly balancing who you trade against who you receive. 

 

[rvm96 1643]

I think a missing factor is that it's a seller's market now with the extra teams getting into the playoffs lowering the availability of talent. I mean the Angles just traded 2 top 5 prospects for 2 rentals.

[David Dennison 18854]

Good grief, this trade is fine.

[Scraps 13561]

Can't believe we didn't get Ohtani for Korey Lee 

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

4 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

It’s not that Lee was traded, it’s WHO he was traded for. Every single outlet has us as losing that trade. 

How does anyone know what Lee's true trade value is?  He's a 25 year old minor-league catcher with a hole in his bat.  Those don't typically headline deals for a star.

Hell, even the people in this thread who are sad about losing him have set his ceiling at around 1.0 WAR per season.

[David Dennison 18854]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

How does anyone know what Lee's true trade value is?  He's a 25 year old minor-league catcher with a hole in his bat.  Those don't typically headline deals for a star.

Hell, even the people in this thread who are sad about losing him have set his ceiling at around 1.0 WAR per season.

Hoo boy, you are gonna get an earful of arcane analytics now.

[HtownHorn 14677]

11 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

It’s not that Lee was traded, it’s WHO he was traded for. Every single outlet has us as losing that trade. 

The same outlets think the Astros have one of the worst systems in baseball. Surprised we could get a MLB player back for our shitty farmhands.

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

Trading away more future value for less future value is generally bad business, right? Repeatedly doing this has obvious long-term consequences and suggests that the front office may not be particularly sharp.

Since we can’t be certain of any future events happening, we rely on probabilities. Lee probably has more future value to the Astros than Graveman, probably by quite a bit. That is the issue. 

Maybe the club thinks less of Lee than scouts/prospect folks. I hope that’s the case, because if they don’t, then this suggests that they’ll be bad at valuing players properly. 

[runthebone 7969]

You bitches want to win another title or what?

Let's get another starter and go fuck people up.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

Some of y'all are acting like a bunch of Kendall Gravemans right now. 

[David Dennison 18854]

2 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Trading away more future value for less future value is generally bad business, right? Repeatedly doing this has obvious long-term consequences and suggests that the front office may not be particularly sharp.

Since we can’t be certain of any future events happening, we rely on probabilities. Lee probably has more future value to the Astros than Graveman, probably by quite a bit. That is the issue. 

Maybe the club thinks less of Lee than scouts/prospect folks. I hope that’s the case, because if they don’t, then this suggests that they’ll be bad at valuing players properly. 

Possibly. But also possibly not.

[billfromlaketravis 11458]

With the trade of Lee, the Astros don’t have a first round in their farm system from 2019-2021. 

[tx 3 putt 76905]

26 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

It’s not that Lee was traded, it’s WHO he was traded for. Every single outlet has us as losing that trade. 

do they factor in that we can now sign madly to ‘back up’ / continue diaz’s education next season ?

Edited July 28, 2023 by tx 3 putt

[LCHorn 2616]

6 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

How does anyone know what Lee's true trade value is?  He's a 25 year old minor-league catcher with a hole in his bat.  Those don't typically headline deals for a star.

Hell, even the people in this thread who are sad about losing him have set his ceiling at around 1.0 WAR per season.

 

5 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

The same outlets think the Astros have one of the worst systems in baseball. Surprised we could get a MLB player back for our shitty farmhands.

I suppose disagreeing on the internet means everything must be binary but no one is suggesting that Lee could have been traded for a star, nor do most outlets consider the Astros system bereft of talent (I think the consensus is it's in the middle of the pack and lacks the kind of headline talent that tends to be highlighted in the top five systems). 

 

My point remains that trading Korey Lee today minimizes his value (he's underperformed in a super small sample size and is currently injured) and there appeared to be a spot for him on next year's team.  I'd rather have traded off an outfielder, even Gilbert, who might have more trade value and first round pick shine for a better reliever. 

[henrygandorf 29189]

korey lee has 5 homers this season.  is he playing in the same league singleton is?  and singleton has like 9 dongs since last wednesday?  i'm all done with good defensive catchers, thanks.

relievers are a mixed bag.  have y'all learned nothing the past 6 years?  it's guys like graveman and maton and stanek and montero that you put in the bag and see who can get outs.  some of them find another gear in the playoffs, others regress.  i'll take 10 of those guys if they're available.

[rvm96 1643]

2 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Some of y'all are acting like a bunch of Kendall Gravemans right now. 

[Rockethorn1978 6077]

I want to win now and don’t give a fuck about 2026. We could have won 4 straight WS titles and in 2026 some would say “if our shitty front office didn’t trade the future away years ago we would be winning right now”. Korey Lee is good but let’s tap the breaks on acting like he was some stud.

[David Dennison 18854]

Just now, Rockethorn1978 said:

I want to win now and don’t give a fuck about 2026. We could have won 4 straight WS titles and in 2026 some would say “if our shitty front office didn’t trade the future away years ago we would be winning right now”. Korey Lee is good but let’s tap the breaks on acting like he was some stud.

But mah future value!!!

[Scraps 13561]

9 minutes ago, runthebone said:

You bitches want to win another title or what?

Let's get another starter and go fuck people up.

Sorry we can't trade for a SP cause their future projected war for 2 months will be less than what the projected war of Joe Perez, Pedro Leon and some other numbnuts will add up to 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

24 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The Astros have two catchers ahead of Lee with negative WARs each for this season (Maldonado and Salazar). What should make anyone believe that Lee will play spot duty and suddenly manufacture 1 WAR via those outings? That’s a stretch given what we already know. 

Counter- the Astros are extremely fucking stupid about Maldy and Salazar was always meant to be cannon fodder, so that doesn't mean Lee isn't the second best catcher in the organization right now- I believe he probably is.  A good defensive catcher that can hit an occasional HR (I know he only had 5 HR in AAA but I think he was dinged up some) might get to 1/2 a WAR or 1 WAR if deployed correctly.  

My last podcast had Lee as something like the 37th most value in the organization which isn't nothing- but I included him in a segment called "He's blocked, he's not special, he might be fine- he's worth more to you than he is me." which is about what this trade looks like.  

[LCHorn 2616]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

But mah future value!!!

 

1 minute ago, Scraps said:

Sorry we can't trade for a SP cause their future projected war for 2 months will be less than what the projected war of Joe Perez, Pedro Leon and some other numbnuts will add up to 

This is the kind of logic that leads to signing Carlos Lee. 

[HtownHorn 14677]

2 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

I want to win now and don’t give a fuck about 2026. We could have won 4 straight WS titles and in 2026 some would say “if our shitty front office didn’t trade the future away years ago we would be winning right now”. Korey Lee is good but let’s tap the breaks on acting like he was some stud.

I wouldn't even say Korey Lee is good. His ceiling is an average starting catcher, but he could very well be Austin Hedges.

[Scraps 13561]

Just now, LCHorn said:

 

This is the kind of logic that leads to signing Carlos Lee. 

You just wanted to trade Gilbert for a RP

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

do they factor in that we can now sign madly to ‘back up’ / continue diaz’s education next season ?

That makes this the absolute worst part of the deal if that happens.  Seriously, why???????????

[David Dennison 18854]

Here comes the nerd brigade.

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

9 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Possibly. But also possibly not.

Problem is, these possibilities aren’t equally likely. 
 

 

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

But mah future value!!!

Right - who cares about next year?!? We got Kendall Graveman! (This is exactly how losing franchises operate.)

[LCHorn 2616]

2 minutes ago, Scraps said:

You just wanted to trade Gilbert for a RP

Sure, for someone like Devin Williams (who is not on the block, obviously).  I'm not against moving prospects and the Astros have done a pretty good job at keeping the ones that matter so far (Hader excepted). 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

For those that dislike the trade- if Graveman can handle the 7th for 8M that saves you maybe 5M from what you'd have to pay in the market for a 7th inning guy next year.  Maybe they think they can find a better backup catcher than Lee for 5M. Or maybe they have someone else in the org they like more than Lee (I don't see clearly who that would be, but whatever).

 

[tx 3 putt 76905]

5 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

I wouldn't even say Korey Lee is good. His ceiling is an average starting catcher, but he could very well be Austin Hedges.

hes not starting over Diaz or maldanado

 

[David Dennison 18854]

3 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Right - who cares about next year?!? We got Kendall Graveman! (This is exactly how losing franchises operate.)

Good thing we're talking about the Astros.

[LCHorn 2616]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

For those that dislike the trade- if Graveman can handle the 7th for 8M that saves you maybe 5M from what you'd have to pay in the market for a 7th inning guy next year.  Maybe they think they can find a better backup catcher than Lee for 5M. Or maybe they have someone else in the org they like more than Lee (I don't see clearly who that would be, but whatever).

 

One conclusion you might draw from the trade is the "Stros like Salazar better as the defensive part of a platoon with Diaz.  Clearly they don't place a high priority on getting offense from the catcher. 

[TonyTexas 10510]

I’m going to do y’all a solid and distract Wulaw and Hank with this

 

[Rockethorn1978 6077]

4 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Problem is, these possibilities aren’t equally likely. 
 

 

Right - who cares about next year?!? We got Kendall Graveman! (This is exactly how losing franchises operate.)