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2023 Houston Astros Thread

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henrygandorf
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FartingDreamer
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Am I the only one that can't stand the sight of Altuve, Bregman or Tucker?  Something about each one of them just pisses me off.  

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2582

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Careful. There are multiple prospect goobers on this thread that are about to sprint over to your post and remind you that Jake Rogers is having an almost above replacement value season in his 28th year for the Detroit Tigers. Regret is all we know, sir.

I don't know if I'd categorize myself that way (analytics goober would be fair), but I think this deal is a home run compared to the Gravemen trade.  The money coming back also leaves the team in a position to add during the winter. 

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37455

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28 minutes ago, Scraps said:

I didn't want to originally trade him in this deal for JV but after hearing the full deal I am ok with it.

Yeah, the more I think about this deal, the more I like it.

Assuming we re-sign Tucker, we have 2/4 of our OF/DH slots set for the next several years.  So, some of these outfield prospects were destined to be dealt sooner or later.  And what did we get?  JV at a deep discount for the last two or three years of this window.  How were we ever going to get more at that annual price tag?  And what does JV do for the development of Hunter Brown?  Yeah, let's fucking go.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14446

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

Yeah, the more I think about this deal, the more I like it.

Assuming we re-sign Tucker, we have 2/4 of our OF/DH slots set for the next several years.  So, some of these outfield prospects were destined to be dealt sooner or later.  And what did we get?  JV at a deep discount for the last two or three years of this window.  How were we ever going to get more at that annual price tag?  And what does JV do for the development of Hunter Brown?  Yeah, let's fucking go.

The only way this deal really breaks for the Astros is that Tucker is signed with the Mets money.

1 minute ago, runthebone said:

Mancini getting DFA'd...

 

As he tried hitting left-handed?

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RGBIII

RGBIII 22798

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Posted

Parades>>>>>prospects

 

Mets are paying enough to where JV costs about the same as Montero lol Gilbert was blocked with how Chas has been performing and this shouldn’t limit long term spending. Extend Framber, extend breggy, extend altuve and absolutely extend Tucker. Let this window last 15 years

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

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6 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Yeah, the more I think about this deal, the more I like it.

Assuming we re-sign Tucker, we have 2/4 of our OF/DH slots set for the next several years.  So, some of these outfield prospects were destined to be dealt sooner or later.  And what did we get?  JV at a deep discount for the last two or three years of this window.  How were we ever going to get more at that annual price tag?  And what does JV do for the development of Hunter Brown?  Yeah, let's fucking go.

I will bet any amount of money you want that we aren’t re-signing Tucker. 
that doesn’t mean this deal isn’t good. 
our window closes after 2025 if we don’t develop well, but we have developed well so who knows.  3 more legit shots at a WS at a minimum. That’s a 10+ year run which is damn near inconceivable. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

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You do a deal like this it would be crazy not to go get a left handed bat that hits RHP well so we can say good bye to Julks getting important AB’s. 
Meyers is actually really good against LHP so no need to upgrade there. 
don’t need an allstar guy just a solid Lf platoon bat. 

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hornmpa96

hornmpa96 2598

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26 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

he's locked up thru 2025 (i think).  if we get to the point where he's hearing offers from multiple teams, we've already fucked this up.

His agent has already told him what he’s worth on the free agent market. Assuming he stays healthy, it will be a massive amount of $$$.

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11103

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ESPN Article and grades for the trade:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38109343/mlb-trade-deadline-2023-justin-verlander-mets-astros-grades

Spoiler

The trade: The Houston Astros acquire RHP Justin Verlander from the New York Mets for OF Drew Gilbert and OF Ryan Clifford.

The dismantling of the most disappointing team money can buy continues as the Mets trade away a second future Hall of Famer in a matter of days. After trading Max Scherzer to the Texas Rangers, the Mets follow up with another blockbuster, sending Verlander back to the Astros -- the team he was on from 2017 to 2022.

Let's grade it.

 

hou.png&h=60&w=60

Houston Astros: Let's hope Verlander has a good real estate agent because after leaving the Astros as a free agent to sign with the Mets, he's heading back to Houston, where he won two Cy Young Awards and two World Series championships. With Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy all on the injured list, a return engagement with Verlander was just too enticing for the Astros to pass on -- especially since the Rangers, with a half-game lead in the American League West, fortified their own rotation with Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery.

On the surface, it looks like Verlander is still pitching at an ace-quality level -- or at least very close to it. After missing April with a teres major muscle strain, he's 6-5 with a 3.15 ERA while holding batters to a .219 average. Among pitchers with at least 80 innings, he ranks 15th in ERA, 17th in average allowed and eighth in OPS allowed. He's been even better of late with a 1.49 ERA over his past seven starts and just one home run allowed.

So the Astros are getting the same pitcher who won the Cy Young Award last season and helped them win the World Series, right? Not necessarily. Some of the deeper stats show that it has become much more of a grind these days for Verlander compared to 2022:

Strikeout rate
2022: 27.8%
2023: 21.0%

Walk rate
2022: 4.4%
2023: 8.0%

Home run rate
2022: 1.8%
2023: 2.3%

Verlander's fastball, once the best in the game among starters, is now merely slightly above average at 94.3 mph. Back in 2019, pre-Tommy John surgery, he often would simply blow it by hitters with a swing-and-miss rate of 31%. That's now down to 17%, so he has to rely more on guile and execution rather than pure power. He's still a good pitcher -- one of the top 20 starters in the game -- and his competitive desire remains top of the line, but it's important to remember that he's more of a six-inning starter now. Indeed, Astros fans will recall his spotty postseason last year when he had two good starts and two bad ones, allowing 13 runs across 20 innings.

That said ... who wouldn't want to add Verlander to their rotation? Especially given the history the Astros are chasing: The first team to win consecutive World Series titles since the New York Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. If Verlander is the difference between winning the AL West -- avoiding that three-game wild-card series -- and finishing second, those odds of a repeat go up substantially. There's added incentive for Houston to go for it the next two years because Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve become free agents after the 2024 season. That alone was a reason for Houston to add another starter in hopes of maximizing this window.

Plus, the Astros will get Verlander for 2024 and possibly for 2025 (if he pitches 140 innings in 2024, his player option kicks in). Yes, it will be a ton of money to pay a guy who is already 40 years old. He's owed about $14 million for the rest of this season and $43.3 million next season, with a $35 million conditional option for 2025. But Verlander is driven to reach 300 career wins -- he sits at 250 at the moment -- and he has a better chance of getting there with the Astros than the Mets. I wouldn't bet against him.

Grade: A

nym.png&h=60&w=60

New York Mets: No doubt, these past couple of days have been sad and depressing for Mets fans -- on top of a sad and depressing season. The hype of the largest payroll in history with two Hall of Fame starters to anchor the rotation has turned into one of the largest duds of a season in major league history. Yet ... the Mets did pretty well in both the Scherzer trade and now this one. I mean, other than the fact that they'll now need two new starters for next season.

For Verlander, however, they get two intriguing prospects from an otherwise thin Houston system. Gilbert was the team's first-round pick last year out of Tennessee and ESPN's Kiley McDaniel has a 50 future value grade on him. He tore up Class A to start the season with a .361 average in 21 games, but has slowed to a .241/.342/.371 line at Double-A. He's a power/speed guy with the possibility of remaining in center field, allowing the Mets to eventually move Brandon Nimmo to left field as he ages.

Like Gilbert, Clifford is a left-handed hitter with perhaps even more projectable power than Gilbert. Drafted in the 11th round out of high school, the Astros gave him second-round money to sign and he's already outperformed their initial expectations as scouts now project 30-homer potential. At 19 years old, he's already reached High-A and is hitting .291/.399/.520 with 18 home runs across the two levels. Kiley gives him a strong 45 FV as he's limited to right field or maybe first base, but clearly the bat has a chance to be pretty special.

Was it worth it for the Mets? I think so. It's not easy cutting bait on what was supposed to be such a joyous season, but the smart organizations are able to adapt on the fly. And remember: They still have owner Steve Cohen's money. This offseason's list of free agent starters will be deep (Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urias, Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and probably Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman). They can easily sign two of them to replace their departed Hall of Famers. And now they have a slew of exciting prospects to help build a long-term foundation that the 2023 roster never had.

Grade: A

 

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11103

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1 minute ago, CycleTex87 said:

Is #35 available for JV?  Or is he going to need to wear #83 or some shit?

I do not see any active players on the roster with 35, so he should be good. Although I think he should change it to 54, since that's how many millions the Mets are going to pay him to play for the Astros. 

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CycleTex87

CycleTex87 2953

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Posted (edited)

All kidding aside, esplain to me how trading two great prospects to NYM for Verlander and cash is better than signing him in the last offseason to the big cash deal he wanted?  Is that wad of cash from the Mets equivalent to the projected salaries of replacement prospects and/or free agents?  Or Tuck?   Is it a better deal than we would have had in the offseason?

Edited by CycleTex87
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18608

Posted
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1 minute ago, CycleTex87 said:

All kidding aside, esplain to me how trading to great prospects to NYM for Verlander and cash is better than signing him in the last offseason to the big cash deal he wanted?  Is that wad of cash from the Mets equivalent to the projected salaries of replacement prospects and/or free agents?  Or Tuck?   Is it a better deal than we would have had in the offseason?

We didn't know LMJ and Garcia would be lost for the year and we didn't know Urquidy would miss three months.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

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Just now, CycleTex87 said:

All kidding aside, esplain to me how trading to great prospects to NYM for Verlander and cash is better than signing him in the last offseason to the big cash deal he wanted?  Is that wad of cash from the Mets equivalent to the projected salaries of replacement prospects and/or free agents?  Or Tuck?   Is it a better deal than we would have had in the offseason?

Well, circumstances changed. Garcia and Urquidy are out. LMJ never came back. This attrition was an unknown variable during the winter.

So it isn’t better. But that doesn’t mean either decision (to pass on signing JV and trading for JV) was wrong.

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2582

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6 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

All kidding aside, esplain to me how trading to great prospects to NYM for Verlander and cash is better than signing him in the last offseason to the big cash deal he wanted?  Is that wad of cash from the Mets equivalent to the projected salaries of replacement prospects and/or free agents?  Or Tuck?   Is it a better deal than we would have had in the offseason?

I don’t really think you can play that game.  What we are paying for (in prospects and remaining salary) is for Verlander today (a diminished Verlander compared to Cy Young Verlander) on the Astros today (who are themselves diminished because of injuries).  
 

If you think of the prospects as trade chits then it’s really a matter of whether they are more useful making this deal than on another deal TODAY (say for Cease). 

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11103

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

All kidding aside, esplain to me how trading two great prospects to NYM for Verlander and cash is better than signing him in the last offseason to the big cash deal he wanted?  Is that wad of cash from the Mets equivalent to the projected salaries of replacement prospects and/or free agents?  Or Tuck?   Is it a better deal than we would have had in the offseason?

A lot of 2023 salary won't hit the salary cap for the Astros, which means it won't hurt them with Luxury Taxes this year. Crane is clearly sensitive to that, so it's kind of like trading those 2 prospects for 54m+ in salary that's paid by someone else, and on the Mets' salary cap instead of the Astros. The Mets already paid 29m for him this year in salary, they are covering the rest, and a bunch of next year's salary. If I'm reading the details right, it sounds like they will send more money in 2025 if that option vests, which might make this even cheaper for the Astros.  

Getting JV for 2+ years for about 38 million (possibly less) is incredibly cheap if he stays healthy. 

Edited by Dutchrudder
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Scraps

Scraps 13531

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

I do not see any active players on the roster with 35, so he should be good. Although I think he should change it to 54, since that's how many millions the Mets are going to pay him to play for the Astros. 

54 is tainted as fuck now.  Shouldn't be worn any time soon.  

 

I think the Firova wears it and it needs to stay with a coach or no one 

Edited by Scraps
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