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2023 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

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15 minutes ago, Ichabod said:

My source also says Verlander is an effing asshole and he also hates Dusty Baker. Says 95 percent of the organization also hates Baker. 

I don’t know anything about Dusty but had a guy who would know say JV was the only guy to big league him when he was in the minors at Detroit. He gushed about Bregman and a couple other guys he played with in college and minors. JV literally only guy he said anything negative about. 

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henrygandorf
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Am I the only one that can't stand the sight of Altuve, Bregman or Tucker?  Something about each one of them just pisses me off.  

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TexasRenegade

TexasRenegade 2391

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So Verlander trade aside, for those of you who truly follow farm systems and such, why is our farm system considered thin?  I know we have traded players away for prospects...but so do they Yankees and Dodgers who are reported to have much deeper farm systems.....is it the bs penalties for us being the sacrificial lamb for sign stealing or what?

 

Just curious.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

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10 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t really think you can play that game.  What we are paying for (in prospects and remaining salary) is for Verlander today (a diminished Verlander compared to Cy Young Verlander) on the Astros today (who are themselves diminished because of injuries).  
 

If you think of the prospects as trade chits then it’s really a matter of whether they are more useful making this deal than on another deal TODAY (say for Cease). 

JV is on a neutral or negative value contract. Think of them sending him along as giving him away for free. The astros could have traded a bag of balls for him (like we’d take in return for Montero). What we really did then, when that sinks in as an understanding, is sell the Mets out top two prospects for 54M dollars. Is that a good sale?  Not if one of them hits and goes to 3 all star games in his first 6 years. But if neither become that level of player it works. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, TexasRenegade said:

So Verlander trade aside, for those of you who truly follow farm systems and such, why is our farm system considered thin?  I know we have traded players away for prospects...but so do they Yankees and Dodgers who are reported to have much deeper farm systems.....is it the bs penalties for us being the sacrificial lamb for sign stealing or what?

 

Just curious.

Variety of factors:

  • Houston lost 4 high draft picks (2 1st rounders and 2 2nd rounders) for the sign stealing scandal.
  • Houston has traded away a shitload of prospects over the last 6 years.  
  • Many of Houston's other pedigreed prospects (Forrest Whitley, Joe Perez, Korey Lee, Freudis Nova, Pedro Leon, Dauri Lorenzo, Collin Barber) have not had the kind of statistical breakout that was hoped/expected.
  • Because of the pandemic and evaluator laziness, many of Houston's best prospects were widely underrated.  I noted in comment earlier today that Baseball Prospectus just had Gilbert, Clifford, Dezenzo, Baez, and Arrighetti in their Top 150, so at least one respected publication is catching up and realizing Houston's system is closer to average than terrible.
  • Houston clearly evaluates and develops pitching better/differently than almost every other team and doesn't target the same criteria that makes pitchers show up on prospect lists.  We can safely assume there are dozen arms in their system that are not in anybody on the internet's Org Top 10 who will end up as solid MoR SP like France, Javier, Garcia, etc..
  • When Houston does have a good prospect, they promote them quickly.  Most people expected Brown and Diaz to be in AAA most of this season.
Edited by Snake Diggity
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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11103

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I'm not quite sure exactly how much JV has been paid this year, but it appears to be about 28-29m. That said, assuming the 2025 option vests, the Astros will be paying right around 40m in total for his 3 years of service. I think the cap breakdown should look something like this: 

2023: $0
2024: 22.66m
2025: 17.5m  

Mets:
2023: $43.3m
2024: 20.66m
2025: 17.5m  

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Variety of factors:

  • Houston lost 4 high draft picks (2 1st rounders and 2 2nd rounders) for the sign stealing scandal.
  • Houston has traded away a shitload of prospects over the last 6 years.  
  • Many of Houston's other pedigreed prospects (Forrest Whitley, Joe Perez, Korey Lee, Freudis Nova, Pedro Leon, Dauri Lorenzo, Collin Barber) have not had the kind of statistical breakout that was hoped/expected.
  • Because of the pandemic and evaluator laziness, many of Houston's best prospects were widely underrated.  I noted in comment earlier today that Baseball Prospectus just had Gilbert, Clifford, Dezenzo, Baez, and Arrighetti in their Top 150, so at least one respected publication is catching up and realizing Houston's system is closer to average than terrible.
  • Houston clearly evaluates and develops pitching better/differently than almost every other team and doesn't target the same criteria that makes pitchers show up on prospect lists.  We can safely assume there are dozen arms in their system that are not in anybody on the internet's Org Top 10 who will end up as solid MoR SP like France, Javier, Garcia, etc..
  • When Houston does have a good prospect, they promote them quickly.  Most people expected Brown and Diaz to be in AAA most of this season.

we seem to also do well with international signings, and i feel like those guys get overlooked on all the lists.  framber, javier, urquidy, garcia - were those guys ever on our top prospect lists or did they just go to the astros and start winning playoff games?

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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Just now, henrygandorf said:

we seem to also do well with international signings, and i feel like those guys get overlooked on all the lists.  framber, javier, urquidy, garcia - were those guys ever on our top prospect lists or did they just go to the astros and start winning playoff games?

They were never very high on those lists.  But it's not just that Houston does well with int'l signees, its that they do well with low/no bonus signees.  THeir track record with the big bonus guys (Nova, Leon, etc.) is actually not very good.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22583

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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

we seem to also do well with international signings, and i feel like those guys get overlooked on all the lists.  framber, javier, urquidy, garcia - were those guys ever on our top prospect lists or did they just go to the astros and start winning playoff games?

Javier definitely was, but I don't think any of the others were on anyone's radar as a potential difference maker.

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wood

wood 11105

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44 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

All kidding aside, esplain to me how trading two great prospects to NYM for Verlander and cash is better than signing him in the last offseason to the big cash deal he wanted?  Is that wad of cash from the Mets equivalent to the projected salaries of replacement prospects and/or free agents?  Or Tuck?   Is it a better deal than we would have had in the offseason?

 

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WBT

WBT 20397

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No more Bielak/Blanco starts will be nice.  They did an admirable job eating some innings but yeah.. 

So JV, Framber, Javier, France, and Brown for 1 turn and then to a 6-man the rest of the year when Urquidy comes back?

Sounds pretty good, especially once Framber and Javier are unfucked.

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WBT

WBT 20397

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3 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

 

Either way, he will still be a douche.  I'm glad I don't have to grit my teeth and root for him.

Fucking this.  I'm perfectly content sending this Lenny Dykstra wannabe:

drew-gilbert-volunteers.jpg

to a team I've hated since 1986

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9797

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41 minutes ago, WBT said:

No more Bielak/Blanco starts will be nice.  They did an admirable job eating some innings but yeah.. 

So JV, Framber, Javier, France, and Brown for 1 turn and then to a 6-man the rest of the year when Urquidy comes back?

Sounds pretty good, especially once Framber and Javier are unfucked.

Yes please. Rest for Staff woulD be huge with a 6 man rotation. 
 

Whole staff can get better from having their leader back 

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