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2023 Houston Astros Thread

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henrygandorf
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Am I the only one that can't stand the sight of Altuve, Bregman or Tucker?  Something about each one of them just pisses me off.  

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8219

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If there's any urgency to this team, it's been well camouflaged so far. Of course, good pitching by any opponent can make you look flat.

Not sure what if will take to create a spark for these home games, but it's crazy to play as well as we did a week ago and then lay such a rotten egg in Houston. Maybe Altuve and Brantley can bring some better leadership along with their hits.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6362

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3 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

If there's any urgency to this team, it's been well camouflaged so far. Of course, good pitching by any opponent can make you look flat.

Not sure what if will take to create a spark for these home games, but it's crazy to play as well as we did a week ago and then lay such a rotten egg in Houston. Maybe Altuve and Brantley can bring some better leadership along with their hits.

I think the issue is…they’re just not very good. We’re talking about a lineup featuring Dubon, Maldonado, Meyers, a washed-up Abreu, Hensley/Julks, and Pena almost every day. That’s 2/3 of the lineup made up of quad-A guys, an old 1B whose skill level has significantly declined, and a SS who struggles to recognize balls out of the zone.

If that were any other team, we wouldn’t be expecting much from them. It’s just an objectively mediocre/bad lineup, totally dependent on Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19558

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5 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I think the issue is…they’re just not very good. We’re talking about a lineup featuring Dubon, Maldonado, Meyers, a washed-up Abreu, Hensley/Julks, and Pena almost every day. That’s 2/3 of the lineup made up of quad-A guys, an old 1B whose skill level has significantly declined, and a SS who struggles to recognize balls out of the zone.

If that were any other team, we wouldn’t be expecting much from them. It’s just an objectively mediocre/bad lineup, totally dependent on Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker. 

Fortunately, it's going to change.

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8219

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1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

It’s just an objectively mediocre/bad lineup, totally dependent on Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker. 

True. Not all of those weak links will be eliminated when we're back to full strength, unfortunately. And we know that in whatever capacity he's used, Dubon isn't likely to keep hitting the way he did recently. But regardless of who else is out there, it really would help to get more consistent production out of our most elite guys. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6362

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6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Fortunately, it's going to change.

It should. Replacing Dubon with Altuve figures to be a massive upgrade. Replacing Quad A with Brantley should be an upgrade. McCormick will help.

Though that offensive improvement will probably be offset by replacing 40% of the rotation with Bielak and whoever else.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9819

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

But regardless of who else is out there, it really would help to get more consistent production out of our most elite guys. 

What’s your definition of “consistent production”?

I haven’t pulled the numbers but willing to bet the numbers of the “big 3” aren’t terribly out of line with their career norms for this point in the season.

it’s just that in previous seasons inconsistencies are masked when you have other All Star level players (Altuve/Brantley/Correa and Yuli in 2021/Springer in 2020, etc) there to provide the “consistency” from a top-to-bottom of the lineup perspective.

Edited by UTexasFight
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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8219

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6 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

What’s your definition of “consistent production”?

I haven’t pulled the numbers but willing to bet the numbers of the “big 3” aren’t terribly out of line with their career norms for this point in the season.

it’s just that in previous seasons inconsistencies are masked when you have other All Star level players (Altuve/Brantley/Correa and Yuli in 2021/Springer in 2020, etc) there to provide the “consistency” from a top-to-bottom of the lineup perspective.

No real argument there. All parts of a lineup aren't equally good or bad every day. We know Bregman's come on a bit, which has certainly helped. But as I noted upthread, Alvarez and Tucker aren't raking the way I thought they would when the shift ban was announced. (Fortunately, my concerns over Framber's hits per inning without the shift don't seem to have materialized, either.)

 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6362

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14 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

No real argument there. All parts of a lineup aren't equally good or bad every day. We know Bregman's come on a bit, which has certainly helped. But as I noted upthread, Alvarez and Tucker aren't raking the way I thought they would when the shift ban was announced. (Fortunately, my concerns over Framber's hits per inning without the shift don't seem to have materialized, either.)

 

Tucker’s actual results are still pretty far behind his expected results (based on contact quality, BB and K), even though his expected numbers have dropped a bit in the last week or so. He’s had some bad luck, as has Bregman. Unfortunately, the rest of the crappy lineup cannot tolerate bad luck from the 3 good hitters.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15235

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It will never be an elite lineup when Dusty keeps batting his 2nd best hitter 5th or worse due to some stupid L/R matchups, when Alvarez and Tucker don't have bad platoon splits against LHP.

I am sure Dubon will get more playing time over better hitters once Altuve returns even though he will likely be in the 70s or 80s for OPS+, while leading the league in GIDPs.

Tucker, Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, Brantley, Abreu, Pena, McCormick, Diaz is likely the strongest lineup we can put out there.

Edited by HtownHorn
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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8939

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3 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Replacing Dubon with Altuve figures to be a massive upgrade

I'm not sure I agree with you a hundred percent on your police work, there, Lou.

Dubon is hitting .303 after today and has done a solid job in the field. I love Altuve, but he hasn't hit consistently the last couple of years. I hope he's an Astro until he hangs it up, but he's not the Altuve of the past. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19558

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1 hour ago, Mo Horn said:

I'm not sure I agree with you a hundred percent on your police work, there, Lou.

Dubon is hitting .303 after today and has done a solid job in the field. I love Altuve, but he hasn't hit consistently the last couple of years. I hope he's an Astro until he hangs it up, but he's not the Altuve of the past. 

Counterpoint: his stat line for 2022.

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8939

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29 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Counterpoint: his stat line for 2022.

That's fair... but this isn't 2022. Will he be as great as Altuve has been, I don't know. But I do think "massive upgrade" is a little hyperbolic. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15235

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58 minutes ago, uoftorange said:

I don't believe you are serious...

Yeah, there is no way he is serious. You have to be really stupid to say that Altuve isn't a massive upgrade and then use batting average as the measure to validate that stupidity.

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Scraps

Scraps 13803

Posted
Posted
I'm not sure I agree with you a hundred percent on your police work, there, Lou.
Dubon is hitting .303 after today and has done a solid job in the field. I love Altuve, but he hasn't hit consistently the last couple of years. I hope he's an Astro until he hangs it up, but he's not the Altuve of the past. 
Lmao what
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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9819

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23 minutes ago, rvm96 said:

 

 

Sorry if this was posted earlier

That’s great, but if Dusty is somehow back for one more season, Gilbert is looking at 2025 before he has a chance to crack the top 7 of the lineup, what with being a lefthanded bat and Yordan and tucker already holding down the 3 and 5 spots.

 

but more pressing/serious where is Dusty slotting Brantley? 2nd?

I’m going to absolutely lose it if he does that and pushes a 30/30 guy to 6th.

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19597

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Come listen to the podcast some say is being used to torture Paki’s at US black sites…

Apple:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-3-weve-got-music/id1683955456?i=1000611689994
 

Spotify:

amazon

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/852d9661-0b82-43da-8ae9-955d001c400b/episodes/a6af124c-990d-4589-94ea-e4fcd14a4674/breathing-orange-fire-a-houston-astros-podcast-episode-3-we've-got-music?ref=dm_sh_8hlp04HsPgo7Hl2MGaMSGMXNq

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6362

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13 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

I'm not sure I agree with you a hundred percent on your police work, there, Lou.

Dubon is hitting .303 after today and has done a solid job in the field. I love Altuve, but he hasn't hit consistently the last couple of years. I hope he's an Astro until he hangs it up, but he's not the Altuve of the past. 

Altuve was the 4th best hitter in MLB last year, about 65% better than league average. Since 2016 he’s been 52%, 60%, 35%, 37%, 28% and 64% better than league average (2020 doesn’t count). It’s fair to say he should be around 30-40% better than average this year.

Maricio Dubon currently is 2% worse than league average and has a slugging% of .385. In his career he has been 6%, 1%, 26%, and 42% worse than average. It’s generous to say that he should be 5-10% below average this year.

Jose Altuve is a massive, massive, enormous offensive upgrade over Maricio Dubon. 

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 11137

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7 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Altuve was the 4th best hitter in MLB last year, about 65% better than league average. Since 2016 he’s been 52%, 60%, 35%, 37%, 28% and 64% better than league average (2020 doesn’t count). It’s fair to say he should be around 30-40% better than average this year.

Maricio Dubon currently is 2% worse than league average and has a slugging% of .385. In his career he has been 6%, 1%, 26%, and 42% worse than average. It’s generous to say that he should be 5-10% below average this year.

Jose Altuve is a massive, massive, enormous offensive upgrade over Maricio Dubon. 

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8939

Posted
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15 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Altuve was the 4th best hitter in MLB last year, about 65% better than league average. Since 2016 he’s been 52%, 60%, 35%, 37%, 28% and 64% better than league average (2020 doesn’t count). It’s fair to say he should be around 30-40% better than average this year.

Maricio Dubon currently is 2% worse than league average and has a slugging% of .385. In his career he has been 6%, 1%, 26%, and 42% worse than average. It’s generous to say that he should be 5-10% below average this year.

Jose Altuve is a massive, massive, enormous offensive upgrade over Maricio Dubon. 

I am more than happy to be wrong, and reminded of my ridiculous take at the end of the year when he wins the batting title. 

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