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Cairn Horn88

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6 minutes ago, dcbc said:

I'll call my shot.  I think they get at least a handful of convictions. 

 

That seems like the least likely outcome.  

This thing is 11 separate payments, all illegal under the same questionable interpretation.

The verdicts will be all or nothing.

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Just now, Beau Vine said:

That seems like the least likely outcome.  

This thing is 11 separate payments, all illegal under the same questionable interpretation.

The verdicts will be all or nothing.

Depends on what paper trail there is

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1 hour ago, UpperWestside said:

Was it the guy named Tacopina? 

"I love tacopina. Goes good with nachos." - white guys thinking they're speaking spanish

13 minutes ago, dcbc said:

I'll call my shot.  I think they get at least a handful of convictions. 

 

Now we wait.

I land here way more than zero. They got 12 random-ass people to look at the evidence in front of them and whether or not it seemed worthy of indictment.  34 fucking times they said yes. I'm tired of kowtowing to the possible negative outcomes. this fucker is going down - whether from this indictment or the litany of others that are coming soon after this. he'll never be potus again. and he'll be lucky if he gets to watch Biden's 2nd inaugration on tv. if I were Biden I would have his head on a pike next to me while giving my victory speech. fuck trump

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3 minutes ago, nbmishoid said:

8 of the checks were written on the personal account of and signed by Trump.  Logged into the TO accounting system, and fraudulently described.  Sure hope there is some paper trail 

Do you really think Trump signed them personally?    More than likely, someone has signature approval for him, even on his personal account.   

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5 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Do you really think Trump signed them personally?    More than likely, someone has signature approval for him, even on his personal account.   

Wether or not he personally signed them, it's his signature on them, which is what legally matters (link)

image.thumb.png.094b675a76eacbf4a32e3d9ad7faab8b.png

Edited by Captainant
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1 hour ago, C-Man said:

Perhaps but @TwiceHorn has been telling us for weeks and months that the NY stuff probably doesn’t have as much heft behind it as the shit in Georgia. Even if he gets off here (phrasing), he’s still got some serious legal issues to deal with. (Of course that’s all mute if he’s become POTUS again before those trials get started/resolve.)

I actually feel better about this case now that I've seen the indictment.  There still be tygers and dragons there, but I feel like it's more solid than I thought.  Audio recordings, Pecker and Weisselberg all coming to the rescue of Cohen's credibility.

And, I can't express an opinion on Georgia, because a) other than the phone call, I don't know what evidence they've developed, and b) there's a thicket of possible laws he could have violated and I haven't sussed out which ones are the likely candidates.  That's a fairly remarkably unleaky investigation.

If you put a gun to my head yesterday, I would have guessed obstruction in the MAL case to be the most likely to result in a conviction.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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14 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Wether or not he personally signed them, it's his signature on them, which is what legally matters (link)

image.thumb.png.094b675a76eacbf4a32e3d9ad7faab8b.png

Actually, it legally matters in some contexts, but does not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he knew what was the scheme here.

Thankfully, there appears to be other evidence demonstrating that he knew the scheme long before he signed any checks.

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48 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Why exactly does it take 8 months for the next court date?   I understand 3 or 4 months but 8?

Pending further developments, like motion filings, etc., the next date in some criminal cases is a pre-trial conference.  As in, let's address the issues pending the trial that will happen next week or next month.  Also, that's the only next "in person" hearing that requires Trump's appearance.

In any event, the flurry of bullshit and not-so-bullshit motions we're going to see in the next couple of weeks is going to upset that schedule to a near certainty.

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4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Pending further developments, like motion filings, etc., the next date in some criminal cases is a pre-trial conference.  As in, let's address the issues pending the trial that will happen next week or next month.  Also, that's the only next "in person" hearing that requires Trump's appearance.

In any event, the flurry of bullshit and not-so-bullshit motions we're going to see in the next couple of weeks is going to upset that schedule to a near certainty.

So he could conceivably be at trial in like 9 months?  Like January 2024?

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On the matter of a gag order.  The trial judge did not actually acquire jurisdiction over Trump (to order him to do or not do anything) until today.

Obviously, there's piles of evidence that Trump is going to be a jackass and attempt to try the case in public, but that's all before the court obtained jurisdiction over him.

The judge thus may have been reluctant to order anything pending Trump's inevitable future misbehavior.  They say this Merchan character puts up with zero bullshit, but is exceedingly fair.  And, as much fun as it might be for the judge to shit on Trump's head, being fair like that makes him hard to appeal successfully.

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3 hours ago, South Austin said:

If true (and that's a big IF coming from brietbart via Donnie Cokehead), then the judge should recuse himself and hand this off to another judge.  Is it a legal ground for recusal?  Not sure.  But why give Team MAGA something to bitch about beyond the general bullshit far left lib label?

 

fuck em. Let em froth.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

So he could conceivably be at trial in like 9 months?  Like January 2024?

Well, I didn't say which way the schedule will change, but the most likely answer is it will lengthen.  The Trump Org case went from July 2021 to December 2022, including a six-week trial.  In lots of ways, this is a much less complicated case.  Trump is sure to file every dilatory motion that he can, but the courts lately have been disposing of that shit with quickness and I don't think he can appeal every one of them like he does in a civil case.

So, we'll see.

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1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

R Primary debates gonna be LIT.

I think this is the thing people are discounting. It will take someone will the most minimal amount of balls, and I'm not confident that there are any R candidates that have that, but literally they could get on stage and point blank say " this motherfucker paid a porn star hush money" and completely eviscerated him.

 

But they won't

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why?  Those people are cowards.

Exactly.  Not even Ms. Kross-fit was willing to get herself arrested for trying to disrupt things.  In fact, she's on twitter whining about people using fucking whistles.

That's his biggest defender in all of this, somebody who tried to organize a rally for him, and she's whining about fucking whistles.

 

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1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

If there is a paper trail or more than one corroborating witness this is the smoking gun no? Trying to delay payment until after the election leaves no doubt as to the intent behind the payment 

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1 hour ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I’ve been wondering for more than 2 years what was taking so long. Bragg said in his Q&A session that new shit had come to light but he didn’t say specifically what that new shit was. 

My best guess is Weisselberg and Pecker being cooperative regarding Trump's intentions and knowledge of the scheme.  We've always known or could predict what Cohen would say, and also that his conviction and flip-flopping from Trump lover to Trump hater pretty seriously damage his credibility.  And there's a couple of references to audio tapes that maybe Cohen didn't have, but Packer and Weisselberg did.

We've known Weisselberg was cooperating for a while now, but I think what's significant is that Merchan told him he would have sentenced him much more harshly than five months.  DA told him they were going to bring the noise if he didn't fess up on this and there would be no more sweetheart pleas.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Just now, Sawbonz said:

If there is a paper trail or more than one corroborating witness this is the smoking gun no? Trying to delay payment until after the election leaves no doubt as to the intent behind the payment 

Among other things, yes.

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1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Still worth it.  He will just be dragged again in Georgia.  Fuck him.  

Just the listed weight as 270 is worth it for me. And everyone knows he has lost a significant amount of weight since leaving office. He was definitely over 3 bills

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37 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Depositions and appeal motions. 

There generally are not deepositions/kobayashi in criminal cases.  It's important to note here that the state has little opportunity to develop its case once an indictment is filed.  Under NY law, the state has 35 days after filing to deliver up to the defendant basically its entire file.  And if the state is not ready to rock when it gives its discovery, it's probably in trouble.

If in fact this first setting requiring Trump's appearance is in the nature of a pretrial conference, it's basically the time alotted for the defense to prepare its case, and file any pretrial motions, and if it doesn't want a trial date set shortly after that conference, it had better bring legally sufficient excuses.

And, unlike civil cases, there aren't a whole lot of "interlocutory" appeals in criminal cases, and seemingly especially so in New York. https://ypdcrime.com/cpl/article450.php#c450.10  That meaning an appeal you can take immediately after the order appealed is entered.  A lot of Trump's usual dilatory bullshit is not going to work here.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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