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[atomheartbevo 89,648]

4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

did you not read my entire post? The problem isn't just trump. It's the entire orbit of sycophancy that he commands. There is a fucking movement of fascism at work in this country dude. They're on your school board. They're in your local government. They're in your state government. 

It's not just trump we need to fucking worry about. No matter how much you want to be an ostrich on the fascist threat in this country.

I read your post, and yeah, we have a movement trying to destroy everything from public education to LBGTQ folks and everything in between, right here in Texas.  I've bitched plenty about tit.

But they aren't coming up with dozens of electoral votes out of thin air, and the electoral votes they need to flip are in states that are sliding farther to the left.  

[Biff Tannen 45,673]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I read your post, and yeah, we have a movement trying to destroy everything from public education to LBGTQ folks and everything in between, right here in Texas.  I've bitched plenty about tit.

But they aren't coming up with dozens of electoral votes out of thin air, and the electoral votes they need to flip are in states that are sliding farther to the left.  

Let's say he does lose.  My question is, will the Rs ever pivot away from him/MAGA?  I don't think they can.  I think they continue their attempts to undermine democracy until at least he dies, but probably much longer.  And I fear people will become complacent and they will eventually succeed.

[Brisketexan 105,095]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Let's say he does lose.  My question is, will the Rs ever pivot away from him/MAGA?  I don't think they can.  I think they continue their attempts to undermine democracy until at least he dies, but probably much longer.  And I fear people will become complacent and they will eventually succeed.

This.

But their chances of success go way down when he dies.  He needs to die, and right soon.  Come on, Big Mac-induced heart attack....

[Snake Diggity 4,621]

58 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He is not bothering to actually campaign at all in MI/PA/WI and those states are sliding farther to the left, and the elections last week show that.  Doing rallies in red areas of red states like Iowa, Florida, and Texas do nothing for him in MI/PA/WI. Nothing.

Show me where he's going to make up those 46 electoral votes.

While I generally agree with your point, the 2020 actual map with AZ, GA, and WI flipping is far from impossible.  Trump doesn’t need MI or PA.  He needs the rednecks to show out in AZ/GA and then get lucky* in WI.  It is probably unlikely, but anybody writing off Trump’s chances probably wasn’t paying much attention in 2016.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Snake Diggity

[BamaATL 16,593]

22 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Let's say he does lose.  My question is, will the Rs ever pivot away from him/MAGA?  I don't think they can.  I think they continue their attempts to undermine democracy until at least he dies, but probably much longer.  And I fear people will become complacent and they will eventually succeed.

Just want to point out, that since 2016 he's done nothing but lose elections, and in truth he lost that one as well.  

2016 - lost by 3 million votes, won because of electoral college

2018 - Democratic win and seat gains

2020 - lost by 7+million votes, Dems take House and Senate

2022 - Red wave didn't happen, Republicans barely take the House, don't take Senate despite history telling you this wouldn't happen

2023 - Dem blowouts, sans Governorship in Mississippi (always a long shot)

2024 - ?  

Gee, there might be a trend there.  Republicans aren't just losing with Donald Trump, it's getting worse (not that I am complaining about it, mind you).  

He's under criminal indictment and he will be convicted multiple times before the election, oh and he's fucking senile, and soon to be completely broke. 

I get being concerned about one of the worst people to ever walk the earth being elected, that's real, but the math and the trends don't bear this out at all.  Him being in the mix only energizes our base. 

[RomaVicta 29,905]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

You've got recency bias going on.  The man is not doing anything to actually win WI/MI/PA/GA/AZ/NV - his recent rallies have been mostly in "safe" areas that were going to go for him no matter what (South Carolina, Iowa, Florida, Texas), and it's clear from who he is targeting with said rallies, that he's just grifting to pay his legal expenses.  And his rallies, they're just him whining about how everything is unfair. He's not doing anything to inspire the masses in the states he needs to win back (and his profile is so much lower than it was in 2020, probably thanks to social media bans).

My own predictions are generally wrong, but I'll bring up a few points to consider.

First, the whole notion of the first attempt to overthrow government as we know it being something of a practice run in effect even if that wasn't the intention to start off with. Frontal assault on the Capitol failed although I don't like to think how it would have gone had Trump been driven to the building. 

Okay, so what's the next move? I tend to believe that the state of Ohio was stolen to re-elect GW Bush. I just watched Trumpites try to disrupt the last presidential election. GOP state governments are all over the place publicly moving to cheat there way into office. Your political analysis relies on a free and fair election running by the same rules that CNN still believes to be in effect. 

I don't think the main game is politics anymore. I think the GOPs were already moving to stack the deck to keep their fascist, Russia-sucking, corrupt asses in permanent control. The hate engine predates Trump's seizure of the reins to it. Election cheating similarly predates him. It is quite possibly naive to believe the next election will be like the ones prior to Trump. The game is war against republican style government. I don't believe one side plans to wear gloves.

Second, where is the countervailing public force to take actions that match those of the criminal GOP/MAGA/Proudboy/Trump conspiracy? Are our institutions really working very well? Trump walks around spewing treason, reprisal, and bald dishonesty and only a few of us blink at it anymore. Can we keep counting on generals like Milley? Should we be concerned about how many more Flynns are wearing stars? 

I'm wearing the concern out, but I never thought I'd live in an America where the disposition of the Army would be a consideration in the political future. 

I've never desired to invent crazy stories so that I can feel like I'm living in extraordinary times. I was quite content to ride out the white guy boomer gravy train to the end. There is cataclysm all around. Paradigms have radically shifted. The general populace won't see it nor will the bulk of leaders.

In that context, talking about where Trump is campaigning and Electoral vote counts seem sort of trivial. 

[Brisketexan 105,095]

11 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

My own predictions are generally wrong, but I'll bring up a few points to consider.

First, the whole notion of the first attempt to overthrow government as we know it being something of a practice run in effect even if that wasn't the intention to start off with. Frontal assault on the Capitol failed although I don't like to think how it would have gone had Trump been driven to the building. 

Okay, so what's the next move? I tend to believe that the state of Ohio was stolen to re-elect GW Bush. I just watched Trumpites try to disrupt the last presidential election. GOP state governments are all over the place publicly moving to cheat there way into office. Your political analysis relies on a free and fair election running by the same rules that CNN still believes to be in effect. 

I don't think the main game is politics anymore. I think the GOPs were already moving to stack the deck to keep their fascist, Russia-sucking, corrupt asses in permanent control. The hate engine predates Trump's seizure of the reins to it. Election cheating similarly predates him. It is quite possibly naive to believe the next election will be like the ones prior to Trump. The game is war against republican style government. I don't believe one side plans to wear gloves.

Second, where is the countervailing public force to take actions that match those of the criminal GOP/MAGA/Proudboy/Trump conspiracy? Are our institutions really working very well? Trump walks around spewing treason, reprisal, and bald dishonesty and only a few of us blink at it anymore. Can we keep counting on generals like Milley? Should we be concerned about how many more Flynns are wearing stars? 

I'm wearing the concern out, but I never thought I'd live in an America where the disposition of the Army would be a consideration in the political future. 

I've never desired to invent crazy stories so that I can feel like I'm living in extraordinary times. I was quite content to ride out the white guy boomer gravy train to the end. There is cataclysm all around. Paradigms have radically shifted. The general populace won't see it nor will the bulk of leaders.

In that context, talking about where Trump is campaigning and Electoral vote counts seem sort of trivial. 

This.

We're playing a game with completely different rules and field of play than we grew up with.  This isn't ordinary "win elections, do good politics" stuff.  It is "be prepared to defend our institutions with deadly force" stuff.

[BamaATL 16,593]

5 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

My own predictions are generally wrong, but I'll bring up a few points to consider.

First, the whole notion of the first attempt to overthrow government as we know it being something of a practice run in effect even if that wasn't the intention to start off with. Frontal assault on the Capitol failed although I don't like to think how it would have gone had Trump been driven to the building. 

Okay, so what's the next move? I tend to believe that the state of Ohio was stolen to re-elect GW Bush. I just watched Trumpites try to disrupt the last presidential election. GOP state governments are all over the place publicly moving to cheat there way into office. Your political analysis relies on a free and fair election running by the same rules that CNN still believes to be in effect. 

I don't think the main game is politics anymore. I think the GOPs were already moving to stack the deck to keep their fascist, Russia-sucking, corrupt asses in permanent control. The hate engine predates Trump's seizure of the reins to it. Election cheating similarly predates him. It is quite possibly naive to believe the next election will be like the ones prior to Trump. The game is war against republican style government. I don't believe one side plans to wear gloves.

Second, where is the countervailing public force to take actions that match those of the criminal GOP/MAGA/Proudboy/Trump conspiracy? Are our institutions really working very well? Trump walks around spewing treason, reprisal, and bald dishonesty and only a few of us blink at it anymore. Can we keep counting on generals like Milley? Should we be concerned about how many more Flynns are wearing stars? 

I'm wearing the concern out, but I never thought I'd live in an America where the disposition of the Army would be a consideration in the political future. 

I've never desired to invent crazy stories so that I can feel like I'm living in extraordinary times. I was quite content to ride out the white guy boomer gravy train to the end. There is cataclysm all around. Paradigms have radically shifted. The general populace won't see it nor will the bulk of leaders.

In that context, talking about where Trump is campaigning and Electoral vote counts seem sort of trivial. 

He was in the most powerful position in the history of the planet, and he tried everything he could to undo an election and he failed.  So now you think, while he is in fact nothing more than an ordinary citizen, that he is going to figure out how to pull off a coup?  He failed because he is inept, and an idiot.  What he did expose was that it was possible, and we are lucky he's such a moron.  This was unthinkable prior to all this. Now we have to plan and consider someone else like him coming along.  

The guy is a fucking bonehead, he couldn't plan getting the airport if had to of his own accord.  

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

32 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Let's say he does lose.  My question is, will the Rs ever pivot away from him/MAGA?  I don't think they can.  I think they continue their attempts to undermine democracy until at least he dies, but probably much longer.  And I fear people will become complacent and they will eventually succeed.

They will pivot to somebody else, or stay home.  Check the voting records of your MAGA relatives - I wouldn't be surprised if more than a few weren't voting before him, which meant we had elected a Marxist, Communist, Socialist, atheist, Muslim, gay, dope-smoking community organizer from Chicago named Barrack Hussein Obama, born in Kenya, raised in Indonesia, to two terms. imagine that.

Given the lack of support in Trump's four trials, plenty don't feel the need to risk jail time for him, and his endorsements aren't automatically winning in 2021, 2022, and 2023.

He said the right things to the right group of people, and somebody else will come along and do the same. I just don't think they'll be effective, because the problem for MAGA and the GQP is that the people who want to replace Trump and who have the best chance at it, are mostly politicians by nature.

While politicians are great at presenting a blank slate for people to project their desires/hatred on, Trump did something better - he projected himself onto his followers in a way - he didn't simply tell them "I know you're angry and I know you're angry at such-and-such person or policies" like most politicians.   Instead of "I feel your pain"  Trump was telling them "you must feel my pain and you must share my anger and you must hate the people I've decided to hate."  He was channeling a bit of Rush Limbaugh. There are people who want to be told who to hate, and he did it well.  Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis and others don't seem to understand that, or they aren't charismatic enough to pull it off.

He also embraced the Qanon and other conspiracy nutcases, something that hadn't been done before (and arguably it goes back to Trump's birther bullshit). I don't know that a mainstream Republican politician will do that after he's gone, because the GOP found out that those people are fickle and will easily turn on the GOP at a moment's notice.

 

 

[RomaVicta 29,905]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

He was in the most powerful position in the history of the planet, and he tried everything he could to undo an election and he failed.  So now you think, while he is in fact nothing more than an ordinary citizen, that he is going to figure out how to pull off a coup?  He failed because he is inept, and an idiot.  What he did expose was that it was possible, and we are lucky he's such a moron.  This was unthinkable prior to all this. Now we have to plan and consider someone else like him coming along.  

The guy is a fucking bonehead, he couldn't plan getting the airport if had to of his own accord.  

The bonehead managed to get elected once and has so far gotten away with an open attempt to overthrow the government. Do you feel as comfortable as you sound about the unlikelihood you describe?

Recall, I say he took the reins of something that was already there. If he drops the reins, someone else might just snatch them up. The GOP has lost control of their wicked toy.

You're largely agreeing with my usual position not that I expect anyone to be familiar with my full catalogue.

[Chad Fuck 17,670]

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

When I was young and naïve, in 2016, I used to think that the military would honor their vows to the constitution and prevent any major shenanigans. I am no longer so delusional. 

Some will and some won't.  And therein lies the problem.

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

19 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

While I generally agree with your point, the 2020 actual map with AZ, GA, and WI flipping is far from impossible.  Trump doesn’t need MI or PA.  He needs the rednecks to show out in AZ/GA and then get lucky* in WI.  It is probably unlikely, but anybody writing off Trump’s chances probably wasn’t paying much attention in 2016.

They are close, but looking at things like statewide races such as Congressional Senate seats or gubernatorial races going to the Dems, or the 2021/22/23 elections going against many of his endorsements or the GOP is a sign that something is going on in those states, that does not favor the GOP going forward, at least not in its current state.

If he wanted to truly flip those states, he would have needed to align himself with the RNC and share resources (money) with them, and he would have needed to have been campaigning heavily from 2021 up through now, in those states, at a very local level. He chose to spend most of his time at Mar-a-Lago instead.  We are talking going on week-long trips through those states every few months

I do think that if he had tried, he could have flipped at least three of the states he won in 2016 but lost in 2020, had he been willing to put the time in on the campaign trail.  Which three states...that's up for debate, but I think he could have come close to the votes needed.  Instead, he let those states go, and they moved farther left with elections in 2021/2022/2023.

[BamaATL 16,593]

9 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

The bonehead managed to get elected once and has so far gotten away with an open attempt to overthrow the government. Do you feel as comfortable as you sound about the unlikelihood you describe?

Recall, I say he took the reins of something that was already there. If he drops the reins, someone else might just snatch them up. The GOP has lost control of their wicked toy.

You're largely agreeing with my usual position not that I expect anyone to be familiar with my full catalogue.

Yes, I am pretty confident, he's a fucking loser, he has been his entire life.  He got lucky once and he's managed to skate his entire life on bullshit.  He's a noose right now, of his own creation, and he won't skate on all this.  Part of me hopes he drops dead tomorrow, well just because.  The other part of me looks at the results of elections and says even though there is a danger, the reality if his name is at the top of their ticket the bigger our turn out will be.  For Democrats, winning elections is entirely about turn out.  Donald Trump has gotten more Democrat voters to turn out than perhaps any other man in history.  

[elfenix 34,230]

but all it takes is a recession by mid 2024 to bring trump 47 back into play.  the republican house is trying its best to make that happen.

Edited November 14, 2023 by elfenix

[Brisketexan 105,095]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Yes, I am pretty confident, he's a fucking loser, he has been his entire life.  He got lucky once and he's managed to skate his entire life on bullshit.  He's a noose right now, of his own creation, and he won't skate on all this.  Part of me hopes he drops dead tomorrow, well just because.  The other part of me looks at the results of elections and says even though there is a danger, the reality if his name is at the top of their ticket the bigger our turn out will be.  For Democrats, winning elections is entirely about turn out.  Donald Trump has gotten more Democrat voters to turn out than perhaps any other man in history.  

Counterpoint: right up until they seized power, the nazi leadership and Hitler were correctly viewed as a bunch of losers and dead-enders.  That view was correct.  As correct as your view of Trump and the "MAGA leadership" being losers and dead-enders.

Those losers and dead-enders successfully seized power, and presided over a regime that wrought unspeakable horror.

This thinking that losers and dead-enders can't possibly succeed is poison.  We have to be ever-vigilant, more relentless and cold-blooded than we ever wanted to be, and fight them and affirmatively destroy and ruin them, ALL OF THEM, at every turn.  RUIN THEM.  Make their lives a living hell.  Destroy their livelihood.  Prosecute them for every criminal act they commit (they'll commit plenty, because as mentioned, they're fucking dumbfucks).  Then...keep going.  Grind the pieces left to dust.  Piss on the dust till it runs down the gutter to the sea.  

[Gatorubet 30,209]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They honored their vows in 2020, and the guy who replaced General Mark Milley is definitely not going to side with Trump.  The rank-and-file in 2023 is the same as the rank-and-file I was around in 1993 - they wanna get paid and get laid, and they want to do just enough to keep the NCOs and officers out of their hair.

And the senior officers are getting shit on by Tubberville and the other Republicans (who won't deal with Tubberville), and it's trickling down to the officers below them.

 

https://wapo.st/47dTbR

Quote

Washington(CNN)The Army is now acknowledging that Lt. Gen. Charles Flynn, the brother of President Donald Trump's former national security adviser Michael Flynn, was in the room for one of the key January 6 phone calls in which DC government and US Capitol Police were asking for National Guard troops to quell the unfolding violence at the US Capitol.

The decision-making has come under scrutiny as city and Capitol Police officials have alleged that the Pentagon was slow to respond, while the Pentagon and Army maintain they never denied or delayed requests for the National Guard.

Trump has learned not to put the Kelley and Miley types anywhere around him. He will cherry pick the Flynn types if he gets in.

 

[Brisketexan 105,095]

Just now, Gatorubet said:

 

https://wapo.st/47dTbR

Trump has learned not to put the Kelley and Miley types anywhere around him. He will cherry pick the Flynn types if he gets in.

 

The Flynns need to hang.

[BamaATL 16,593]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: right up until they seized power, the nazi leadership and Hitler were correctly viewed as a bunch of losers and dead-enders.  That view was correct.  As correct as your view of Trump and the "MAGA leadership" being losers and dead-enders.

Those losers and dead-enders successfully seized power, and presided over a regime that wrought unspeakable horror.

This thinking that losers and dead-enders can't possibly succeed is poison.  We have to be ever-vigilant, more relentless and cold-blooded than we ever wanted to be, and fight them and affirmatively destroy and ruin them, ALL OF THEM, at every turn.  RUIN THEM.  Make their lives a living hell.  Destroy their livelihood.  Prosecute them for every criminal act they commit (they'll commit plenty, because as mentioned, they're fucking dumbfucks).  Then...keep going.  Grind the pieces left to dust.  Piss on the dust till it runs down the gutter to the sea.  

Oh we absolutely have to remain vigilant, but I would think that among this group of people that isn't in question.  I will say this, I go out of my way to avoid doing business with Pro Trumpers, it's the best way I can hurt them, I hope all of you do as well.  I'm not talking about people that quietly maintain their beliefs, I don't do that kind of research, but I'm talking about a painter that turned their business vehicles into Trump billboards, that sort of stuff.  Obviously, I vote, and I am volunteering to do ride service next year for voters.  I also go out of my way to encourage young people to register to vote.  

Vote

Vote with your wallet or purse

Encourage people to vote, especially young people.

 

[aggie08 21,496]

19 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Let's say he does lose.  My question is, will the Rs ever pivot away from him/MAGA?  I don't think they can.  I think they continue their attempts to undermine democracy until at least he dies, but probably much longer.  And I fear people will become complacent and they will eventually succeed.

If they lose big in 2024--Presidency, House, Senate--I don't see how they can continue this shit. Above all else, they're all self-preserving cockroaches. They latched on to MAGA because they helped them win elections. They and Trump have no use if they can't win.

Texas and the south may be lost for generations to this shit, but it don't see how any Republican from a purplish state can continue on this course.

But only IF they lose big in 2024.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, elfenix said:

but all it takes is a recession by mid 2024 to bring trump 47 back into play.  the republican house is trying its best to make that happen.

My biggest fear.

[BamaATL 16,593]

2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

My biggest fear.

The are about to fail miserably and look stupid for doing it.  They don't have the votes, nor the leverage to pull this off.  The other thing about Trump has managed to do is make more people astute and paying attention than ever before.  All of the Republican House narratives for this show down are so inane that their approval rating is in the teens.  They will punt.

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

In that context, talking about where Trump is campaigning and Electoral vote counts seem sort of trivial. 

Actually those two things are the most important things if he were going to try and steal the election in 2024.  With that said, it would arguably be far easier to simply flip three states that have the needed electoral votes, states that went for him in 2016 and that he lost by close margins in 2020 (as mentioned by @Snake Diggity above).

Just get on the road stating in 2021 for a few months out of the year in three states, criss-crossing them, keeping people energized, and keep repeating that every 6 months up through next summer.  But that's three years of work in a lot of places he didn't give a shit about or would want to hang out in, with a lot of time away from Mar-a-Lago, and that would drain his campaign coffers, so he didn't.  Oh, and he has to maintain all of the states he won in 2020 as well.

But here's the problem for him: If he wanted to steal the needed electoral votes, that's arguably harder than him simply flipping some states he won in 2016 but lost in 2020.  And it has to be those battleground states.  He's not going to steal the electoral votes from New York or California, it's got to be a state he at least won in 2016, where the margins are closest and fuckery pays off the most.

It's harder to steal for a few reasons:

1. He's not in the White House, so everything hinges on having everybody in place in November of 2024. He can't campaign for folks who are running for office in 2024 to steal the election for him, they have to already be in office by 2024. He has to have helped elect the right people in 2020, in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Over 95% of his campaign time from early 2020 until now was probably spent on himself, so that ship has sailed.
2. Tied to #1, he would have needed to identify a large number of people who would not only steal an election for him, but what offices they need to be in (local or state, legislative or executive or judicial).
3. Tied to #1 and #2, he would have had to work with the RNC to get campaigns organized at the local and state levels to get those people elected prior to 2024, which also means he would have had to share resources (money and his time on the campaign trail) with the RNC and that he couldn't make it about him.  We know that's impossible. Also, his endorsements are clearly not an automatic win.
4. He would have had to spend a big chunk of the hundreds of millions he raised solely for his PACs on those states/elections, and that ain't happening.
5. He would have needed the judiciary at the local/state levels firmly in his back pocket, and the 60+ lawsuits he lost in those states, including his own appointees, shows he didn't.
6. He would have needed a tight lock on not only the legislatures in those states, but also the statewide offices (Governor, AG, etc.) and that's not worked out for him, not in enough states with the needed electoral votes.
7. Anybody who would be willing to cast fake electoral votes for him has now seen several people associated with such a thing either be indicted on felony charges or face indictment and they've also seen that Trump isn't covering anybody's legal costs out of his own funds (or his campaign's).

Again, it's far easier/simpler to just outright flip some battleground states back to Trump, but he hasn't even tried to do that.

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[BamaATL 16,593]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Actually those two things are the most important things if he were going to try and steal the election in 2024.  With that said, it would arguably be far easier to simply flip three states that have the needed electoral votes, states that went for him in 2016 and that he lost by close margins in 2020 (as mentioned by @Snake Diggity above).

Just get on the road stating in 2021 for a few months out of the year in three states, criss-crossing them, keeping people energized, and keep repeating that every 6 months up through next summer.  But that's three years of work in a lot of places he didn't give a shit about or would want to hang out in, with a lot of time away from Mar-a-Lago, and that would drain his campaign coffers, so he didn't.  Oh, and he has to maintain all of the states he won in 2020 as well.

But here's the problem for him: If he wanted to steal the needed electoral votes, that's arguably harder than him simply flipping some states he won in 2016 but lost in 2020.  And it has to be those battleground states.  He's not going to steal the electoral votes from New York or California, it's got to be a state he at least won in 2016, where the margins are closest and fuckery pays off the most.

It's harder to steal for a few reasons:

1. He's not in the White House, so everything hinges on having everybody in place in November of 2024. He can't campaign for folks who are running for office in 2024 to steal the election for him, they have to already be in office by 2024. He has to have helped elect the right people in 2020, in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Over 95% of his campaign time from early 2020 until now was probably spent on himself, so that ship has sailed.
2. Tied to #1, he would have needed to identify a large number of people who would not only steal an election for him, but what offices they need to be in (local or state, legislative or executive or judicial).
3. Tied to #1 and #2, he would have had to work with the RNC to get campaigns organized at the local and state levels to get those people elected prior to 2024, which also means he would have had to share resources (money and his time on the campaign trail) with the RNC and that he couldn't make it about him.  We know that's impossible. Also, his endorsements are clearly not an automatic win.
4. He would have had to spend a big chunk of the hundreds of millions he raised solely for his PACs on those states/elections, and that ain't happening.
5. He would have needed the judiciary at the local/state levels firmly in his back pocket, and the 60+ lawsuits he lost in those states, including his own appointees, shows he didn't.
6. He would have needed a tight lock on not only the legislatures in those states, but also the statewide offices (Governor, AG, etc.) and that's not worked out for him, not in enough states with the needed electoral votes.
7. Anybody who would be willing to cast fake electoral votes for him has now seen several people associated with such a thing either be indicted on felony charges or face indictment and they've also seen that Trump isn't covering anybody's legal costs out of his own funds (or his campaign's).

Again, it's far easier/simpler to just outright flip some battleground states back to Trump, but he hasn't even tried to do that.

 

This is all good, just wanted to add one more thing.  Just about everyone he has endorsed in competitive races has lost.  Politics on the national level has a lot to do with riding coattails, and quite frankly, he doesn't have them.  

I'm glad many Republicans are either too stupid to see this or too scared to do anything about it.  

[BevoAbyss 2,058]

31 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Above all else, they're all self-preserving cockroaches. They latched on to MAGA because they helped them win elections. They and Trump have no use if they can't win.

Nope. With all due respect. Not even close. 

MAGA-GQP fascism/theocracy has been building for decades, long before Trump arrived on the scene.

From Reagan-Falwell >>> to Perot-United We Stand >>> Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld war criminals >>> to Tea Party >>> Trump-MAGA-GQP. Republicans have been moving into fascism/theocracy since Reagan era. That's a fact. 

And the fascism/theocracy will continue after Trump is gone. Count on it. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by BevoAbyss

[Captainant 27,653]

That's quite a lot of "ALL IS WELL!!!!" when my local school board is banning books and the state lege thinks a 12yo is old enough to have a kid but is vulnerable to the depravations of a library. 

Atom, you need to stop maddogging on trumps electoral chances and wake up to the fact that it's far more pervasive and widespread than a single walking hemorrhoid. Steve fucking Banon has been just as damaging as trump and he's not elected. He just knows how to ride the lightning and direct right wing hate at his "other" groups. 

I know that """they'll get caught by the justice system""" but I'm worried it's going to be more Nuremberg than Jack Smith when it comes to actually fucking doling out punishment that sticks and withstands appeals to a subverted supreme court. 

[nbmishoid 949]

It was getting organized as a zealous response to FDR, but a series of Presidents ( Eisenhower, Nixon) kept them at bay.  Reagan adopted the movement full stop, and the fantasy thinking accelerated from there.

[YGIFS 19,450]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

That's quite a lot of "ALL IS WELL!!!!" when my local school board is banning books and the state lege thinks a 12yo is old enough to have a kid but is vulnerable to the depravations of a library. 

Atom, you need to stop maddogging on trumps electoral chances and wake up to the fact that it's far more pervasive and widespread than a single walking hemorrhoid. Steve fucking Banon has been just as damaging as trump and he's not elected. He just knows how to ride the lightning and direct right wing hate at his "other" groups. 

I know that """they'll get caught by the justice system""" but I'm worried it's going to be more Nuremberg than Jack Smith when it comes to actually fucking doling out punishment that sticks and withstands appeals to a subverted supreme court. 

^
Fair points.  I think of Nuremberg often these days.  My father was a robust student of it, also served in the Navy with the son of one of the prosecutors.  As proud as he was of his Swabian heritage, he wished the Nazis had suffered even more pain and humiliation than they did.  But we had a cold war to fight right after that.  He instilled one thing in me about those trials that were way beyond anything a 7 year old should be learning about (still love you, pops!).  He would often remark  that they all claimed one of the same three defenses, "We didn't know the scope of it/We were just following orders/It was the fog of war."  Nobody claimed that it never happened.  

A stark contrast is that while people all around his inner circle are flipping and cutting deals and begging for mercy.....Donald Trump isn't using as a defense that he was just trying to preserve electoral integrity, that he was acting to defend our Constitution, that he didn't know the scope of what his team was doing from coast to coast, or he was just doing what he thought best to usher the nation through a challenging pandemic and escalating tensions with enemies abroad.  What he still claims, and has doubled down on, is that 2020.........................never happened.  In this respect, he stands uniquely alone in history.  And that singular ability to believe that anything that didn't go his way didn't literally happen in the physical world in which we find ourselves will keep him alive.  He is not bound by the same rules the rest of us are in that our guilt and shame can eat us away from the inside.  He feeds on regret like we feed on Aggie tears.  

But with any luck, in a couple decades...we can rewrite history.  MAGA nation wasn't caught up in a fog of war for liberty, they weren't just marching on his orders to the Capitol, they didn't know the scope of their election tampering.  MAGA nation........................never happened.  It is a rumor.  A myth.  An agreed upon fairy tell doomsday preppers tell their inbred children.  If not, we can always get the trains running again...

[aggie08 21,496]

Just now, BevoAbyss said:

Nope. With all due respect. Not even close. 

MAGA-GQP fascism/theocracy has been building for decades. long before Trump arrived on the scene.

From Reagan-Falwell >>> to Perot-United We Stand >>> Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld war criminals >>> to Tea Party >>> MAGA-GQP. Republicans have moving into fascism/theocracy since Reagan era. That's a fact. 

And the fascism/theocracy will continue after Trump is gone. Count on it. 

I totally get what you're saying. They'll still be religious fundamentalist shit heads with or without Trump, but I don't think they'll be able to be as brazen about the conspiracies, misogyny, and outright hatred. Which, in turn, will bore MAGA. But if MAGA is poison in elections moving forward, what choice do they have?

In a strange way, I'm almost glad that Trump forced them all to wear their shitheelery on their sleeves.

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

14 minutes ago, Captainant said:

That's quite a lot of "ALL IS WELL!!!!" when my local school board is banning books and the state lege thinks a 12yo is old enough to have a kid but is vulnerable to the depravations of a library. 

What's happening at the state level....well, these are states where Black people were being lynched up through the 50s and 60s (and into the 90s in Texas's case) so are you honestly surprised that said states are not paragons of tolerance?  They are doing everything they can to hold on to power, because the demographics are slowly but surely working against them.

Hell, our fucking state legislature tried to push a pseudo-ban on online porn through earlier this year.  We have legislators that want to prevent women from leaving the state for an abortion and prosecute them if they do.  Our state leadership and legislature is terrified that all those registered votes in Harris County might show up and vote one day and send them packing.  Nothing should surprise you about how shitty Texas is.

14 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Atom, you need to stop maddogging on trumps electoral chances

If he can't get the votes, he doesn't get in office. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[BamaATL 16,593]

4 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I totally get what you're saying. They'll still be religious fundamentalist shit heads with or without Trump, but I don't think they'll be able to be as brazen about the conspiracies, misogyny, and outright hatred. Which, in turn, will bore MAGA. But if MAGA is poison in elections moving forward, what choice do they have?

In a strange way, I'm almost glad that Trump forced them all to wear their shitheelery on their sleeves.

It's far better to have an enemy with a face than an insidious one.  

[Captainant 27,653]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If he can't get the votes, he doesn't get in office. 

You don't need to hold office to lead a fascist movement. You simply need to continue to evade and dely and deny justice long enough to spark enough chaos to seize the moment. 

We are currently riding right down the middle of that track and heading towards a cliff. Every day we delay trumps accountability is another notch more dangerous 

[jimmyjazz 45,898]

It may be true that Trump stands little to no chance in 2024, but where is the harm in developing strategy and tactics as if he does?

[DDD Dad 14,332]

4 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Mo Brooks disgraced himself for Donald Trump for a long time and probably deals with a lot of shame. @TahoeHorn knows him a little I think. I wonder if he talks about it…

[Brisketexan 105,095]

36 minutes ago, BevoAbyss said:

Nope. With all due respect. Not even close. 

MAGA-GQP fascism/theocracy has been building for decades, long before Trump arrived on the scene.

From Reagan-Falwell >>> to Perot-United We Stand >>> Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld war criminals >>> to Tea Party >>> Trump-MAGA-GQP. Republicans have been moving into fascism/theocracy since Reagan era. That's a fact. 

And the fascism/theocracy will continue after Trump is gone. Count on it. 

This.  And the comforting argument of "but the GQP can't win with MAGA!" suffers from this undeniable counter-point: The GQP can't win without MAGA.  They are all-in, there's no going back, there's no alternate path.

Either the GQP wins with and by MAGA, or they have to become a violent separatist movement (hint: the answer is "they're already both").  Treat the GQP and their candidates like violent terrorists who want to end America, because that's EXACTLY what they are.

[nbmishoid 949]

4 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Where is Tahoe asking questions and fetching donuts these days?

[DDD Dad 14,332]

8 minutes ago, nbmishoid said:

Where is Tahoe asking questions and fetching donuts these days?

[BamaATL 16,593]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  And the comforting argument of "but the GQP can't win with MAGA!" suffers from this undeniable counter-point: The GQP can't win without MAGA.  They are all-in, there's no going back, there's no alternate path.

Either the GQP wins with and by MAGA, or they have to become a violent separatist movement (hint: the answer is "they're already both").  Treat the GQP and their candidates like violent terrorists who want to end America, because that's EXACTLY what they are.

Texas A&M was all in with Jimbo, until they weren't.  

 

[The Dog 44,020]

Then there’s this:

 

[YGIFS 19,450]

Last week of October 2024 is gonna by yuge.  You'll have Q3 financial numbers coming in, right before Election Day.  I think we'll be fine on Q4.  Q1 could be dicey, but a final tapering off of interest rates should help.  Q2 & Q3 consecutively could be trouble for the Biden administration.  But we won't officially know it until literally a week before Election Day.  But I doubt anybody is waiting until that GDP report to decide to register and vote.  But maybe it'll be just decent enough news that Trump dies. 

[C-Man 27,214]

14 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Then there’s this:

 

That's good. One of our good friends is from Phoenix. Up until last year, she was living in St Louis and working for a US Congresswoman representing that part of Missouri. Our friend left DC and moved back to Phoenix. She's pretty plugged in politically and thinks POTUS for 2024-2028 could be decided by Maricopa County. I haven't checked math or reached out to Steve Kornacki to confirm, though.

[Biff Tannen 45,673]

42 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Either the GQP wins with and by MAGA, or they have to become a violent separatist movement (hint: the answer is "they're already both").  Treat the GQP and their candidates like violent terrorists who want to end America, because that's EXACTLY what they are.

I would add they are a violent separatist movement based on COMPLETE LIES.  They do not share the same reality as the rest of us.  Literally.  That's fucking dangerous.

[Satchel 6,938]

4 hours ago, Rimbo said:

There is a vast chasm between "Trump has a chance to win" and "Trump is going to be the next president" that you're pretending isn't there.

Besides, the Deep State will ensure his defeat.

[TexasEd 8,066]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

You've got recency bias going on.  The man is not doing anything to actually win WI/MI/PA/GA/AZ/NV - his recent rallies have been mostly in "safe" areas that were going to go for him no matter what (South Carolina, Iowa, Florida, Texas), and it's clear from who he is targeting with said rallies, that he's just grifting to pay his legal expenses.  And his rallies, they're just him whining about how everything is unfair. He's not doing anything to inspire the masses in the states he needs to win back (and his profile is so much lower than it was in 2020, probably thanks to social media bans).

Speaking of legal expenses, and his legal issues, he's got four different trials going on, and yet the MAGA masses are not trying to shut them down in any way.  There aren't hundreds of them showing up to cheer him on.

It's like somebody saying they are going to win the lottery, but they aren't actually playing the lottery - Trump is losing ground steadily in WI/MI/PA alone (thanks abortion and batshit would-be school board officials!) and the GOP is losing power in those and other states. Hell, candidates that he's endorse are even losing races that one would think they should easily win.

 

It’s like saying you are going to win the lottery but only buying raffle tickets at the local Elks lodge 

[BamaATL 16,593]

3 minutes ago, Satchel said:

Besides, the Deep State will ensure his defeat.

Mr. Lindell, your pillows are lumpy.  

[Gatorubet 30,209]

to everyone saying, the military will do the right thing, I can only say I was absolutely stunned at the large amount of current and former veterans participating in J6.  

On a more personal note, my ex brother-in-law was an artillery captain in the army (and a West Point grad)….and he is full down the QAnon warm hole -  believing every stupid MAGA thing. His kids have cut off most contact.  

[jimmyjazz 45,898]

15 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

to everyone saying, the military will do the right thing, I can only say I was absolutely stunned at the large amount of current and former veterans participating in J6.  

Oh come on.  J6 had how many people participate -- 10,000?  How many were veterans -- 1,000?  2,000?  That's a drop in the bucket.

 

Quote

On a more personal note, my ex brother-in-law was an artillery captain in the army (and a West Point grad)….and he is full down the QAnon warm hole -  believing every stupid MAGA thing. His kids have cut off most contact.  

Yes, there are MAGAts in the military.  However, research shows that brass is moving left and is likely better than 50/50 at this point, and the rank and file are probably no more than 40/60.  It's not a secret police force just waiting to be mobilized.

[locodos 5,387]

Well in the wonderful world of targeted ads/content,  veterans, police, and active duty military have been a prime target for conservative content.

[Brisketexan 105,095]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Oh come on.  J6 had how many people participate -- 10,000?  How many were veterans -- 1,000?  2,000?  That's a drop in the bucket.

 

Yes, there are MAGAts in the military.  However, research shows that brass is moving left and is likely better than 50/50 at this point, and the rank and file are probably no more than 40/60.  It's not a secret police force just waiting to be mobilized.

I think that's right.  The real risk here is that we are going to see American Loyalist units of our military facing off against MAGA-commanded units of our military.  Flynn's brother's troops against actual loyal units following their oath.  Actually shooting at each other.

Our trip to becoming a shithole banana republic is on the express route.

[wildcat09 29,349]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Then there’s this:

 

This is the real saving grace right now.  

[The Dog 44,020]

Enough doom porn. Here's some news: