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2023 Houston Rockets Offseason Thread - Time to Start Thinking About Winning Again

BigOrange1

By BigOrange1
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Murfdogg21

Murfdogg21 4413

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3 hours ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Thoughts on Middleton? Or I guess he is redundant.     

Middleton is minus one meniscus. It’s likely his game will erode along with the articular cartilage of his tibia. If he comes to Houston, it will be for the bag of money, not to win. And if money is his driver, would he put in the effort to keep his body healthy and delay his knee/game decline?

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ChickenSandwich

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Posted
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20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don't think we really disagree. I think Houston is fine as a FA destination, but not for the absolute apex predator. Lets just say in Giannis is on the market I'd expect him to go 5-8 places before Houston.  That's what I mean. If it's a Middleton on the market?  Sure.  That dude will sign with Houston if the money is right- we aren't Cleveland or Minnesota or Charlotte or something like that.  

And yeah- Harden to me is a bridge guy that gets you winning 50 games, in the playoffs, and then you flip his contract in year 4 for a couple pieces that will hopefully have you fully engaged in a win a title moment. That's my timeline for trying to win a title- 4 years.  Is yours significantly different.  

I think if you got Kawai and George you could be in the win a title now mode (if they are healthy). That's a low probability bet, but that's sort of my point- winning a title is a low probability bet by its nature (1/30 chance).  

Maybe one of the guys will be a star.  My definition of a star that matters isn't- hey- this guy made 4 all star games though, it's "hey this guy as a first team/2nd team all NBA guy for 1/2 a decade and if things break right you can win a title."

In the last 15 years this is the list of guys in that stratosphere:

Lebron, KD, Steph, Russ, Leonard, Joker, Luka, CP3, Harden, Blake, Embiid, George Dame, Giannis, Howard, Tatum

Dame, Blake and George is mostly 3rd teams (but they had more than 5 each) and Luka/Tatum is a bit early on the 1/2 a decade but I think everyone agrees that they will get there.

 

Titles:  Lebron-4, Steph- 4, KD- 2, Russ-0 (but did play for one in a finals), Leonard- 1, Joker- 1, Luka 0- but did make a couple conference finals, CP3- 0 (clearly second best team two years), Harden 0- (played for one, an injury away from another).  Giannis- 1, Embiid- 0 (eastern semis being furthest advancement is kind of gross.  Every team had one of those guys I mentioned on it (at least) going all the way back to 2011 Dallas. Obviously, Dirk was one of those guys in his prime.

 

I don't see anyone on the Rockets current roster at that level of star wattage right now, but there are only 10 or 15 guys at a time that fit those molds that are active at any time, and that's even too big a number when you consider that some of them are washed (LBJ, Russ, CP3) and some of them are on the come and not there yet (Tatum, Luka etc).  

Maybe I'm wrong and one of the guys on the current roster turns into that.  I don't see it. But I could be surprised.  

 

Will be interesting to see if the new CBA and second apron will distribute or consolidate more talent. 

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A-Tex Devil

A-Tex Devil 2451

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23 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Will be interesting to see if the new CBA and second apron will distribute or consolidate more talent. 

It's going to crush the middle class.  I think a guy like Middleton never in a million years opts out if it were 2025 because he risks there not being a market.  I presume he signs a longer cheaper deal with Milwaukee in the end.  But guys like that are going to get crushed if they want to play for good teams.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14754

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I think the Rockets are going to give a massive offer to Lopez. I don't think Milwaukee will be able to resign Lopez and Middleton.

I think they need a C and PG in FA. The PG will start while they develop Thompson, I also think Whitmore comes off the bench as well.

Martin, Porter, Washington, Christopher, and Tate need to be assets. The only other thing I see is if they can upgrade from Christopher at backup SG, then go for it. Please no Dillon Brooks.

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Wulaw Horn

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Posted
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7 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

I think the Rockets are going to give a massive offer to Lopez. I don't think Milwaukee will be able to resign Lopez and Middleton.

I think they need a C and PG in FA. The PG will start while they develop Thompson, I also think Whitmore comes off the bench as well.

Martin, Porter, Washington, Christopher, and Tate need to be assets. The only other thing I see is if they can upgrade from Christopher at backup SG, then go for it. Please no Dillon Brooks.

Lopez makes a ton of sense.  I'd do 2/60 as an offer to him in a heartbeat.  3/90 get it done for FVV you think?  4/120?  More? 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19136

Posted
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11 minutes ago, EvilCaseMcCoy said:

2*

Duh.  Thanks for the catch.  

18 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

i'd be pretty stoked if this was next year's lineup:

pg - FVV, Thompson, TyTy

sg - Green, Christopher

sf - KPJ, Whitmore

pf - Jabari, Tari

c - Sengun, Lopez/Capela, Garuba

I'd punt on KPJ but yeah- that's not bad.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19136

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3 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

i want to see him play off the ball for a year before completely throwing in the towel on him.

Ok.  But not if it stops you from brining in the best C or PG that you absolutely can.  I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze with him on a championship level team.  

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A-Tex Devil

A-Tex Devil 2451

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3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ok.  But not if it stops you from brining in the best C or PG that you absolutely can.  I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze with him on a championship level team.  

Yeah... KPJ has the worst case in the league of thinking he is the best player on the team when he isn't.   I just don't think he is a winning player.  There is a team to be made with KPJ, LaVert, Lavine, Townes, Dinwiddie, Jordan Poole and the Morris twins coming off the bench.  Call them the Baltimore Ball Stoppers or the Minnesota My Turns.  

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Harrison Stafford

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19 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

I get that we need to spend cap dollars, but really if Ime's coaching can develop those guys, I'm fine with that rotation next year. They should be entertaining as hell, Really, they only need a backup C that can defend the rim and be a rim-runner. Ideally, Capella would be that guy.

Thompson, Washington

Green, Christopher

Whimore, Eason

Smith, Garuba

Sengun

That is a hell of developmental rotation.

 

Porter, Tate, and Martin can all get the fuck out.

All we are saying…..is give youth a chance.

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Slacks

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On 6/22/2023 at 8:01 AM, HtownHorn said:

Ben Simmons was a star once too, until teams figured him out. You have to be able to shoot to be a star in this league and Amen Thompson is abysmal anywhere on the court at doing that.

Ben Simmons' problem is that he wouldn't keep shooting. He didn't believe in his game. He needs psychological assistance to recover. 

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Slacks

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On 6/22/2023 at 8:17 PM, HtownHorn said:

Yes, because he can't shoot. Amen Thompson has to completely rework his shot, but I have questions about his desire to do so, since he hasn't done anything to fix it in 2 years. It was obvious it was broken. It would be something if he was a good FT shooter, but he fucking sucks there as well. If I was the Rockets's owner I would have asked why he hasn't taken the steps to fix it.

 

I also worry about his dad being a helicopter parent, considering how much he has been their primary coach but neither are good at the most fundamental skill in the game.

There are a billion dudes who can shoot FTs. The most fundamental party of the NBA is being dominant at something. 

Think of it like this, Amen Thompson is closer to LeBron James than the 13th guy that can hit 85% from FT. 

Let's just see. 

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Slacks

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On 6/23/2023 at 5:25 AM, billfromlaketravis said:

Feels like the team is a lot of good young pieces, but no stars. Need a couple to emerge. 

Curry, Thompson, Green were not stars...

There are enough dudes in the mix that this team can emerge as winners with proper leadership and accountability. 

Let's just see. 

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Slacks

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50 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Was listening to an espn podcast and in passing they said the Rockets must spend $47 million more to hit the floor this season?

My math says $37 with potential to $50M. There is about $12M in cap holds for guys that may not be coming back. 

Rockets are currently at 85M with 25M in holds. 12M of that is for Amen and Cam. The rest of for his like DJ Augustin, Willie Caulie Stein, etc... I don't know how much of that will drop. I supposed out will depend on free agency or trades. 

The floor is 122M. Luxury cap at 165M.

2 vets are coming, at a minimum. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14754

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Posted (edited)

So, it appears the top of the FA wish list is Lopez, Brooks, and VanVleet.

PG - VanVleet, Thompson, Washington

SG - Green, Christopher

SF - Brooks, Whitmore

PF - Smith, Eason

C - Sengun, Lopez

Trade Martin, Porter, and Tate.

Probably enough wins to make the play-in games.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14754

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Here is a more complete list of potential targets for the Rockets in FA, According, to Feigen the Rockets are hoping to sign 3 or 4 FAs. Though not listed the top 2 appear to be Harden or VanVleet.

Free agent guards targeted by Rockets

  • Utah’s Jordan Clarkson, 31 years old: 20.8 points (44.4% FG, 33.8% on 3-pointers), 4.4 assists, 4.0 rebounds in 32.6 minutes
  • Golden State’s Donte DiVincenzo, 26 years old: 9.4 points (43.5% FG, 39.7% on 3-pointers), 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists in 26.3 minutes
  • Los Angeles Lakers’ Austin Reaves (restricted), 25 years old: 13.0 points (52.9% FG, 39.8% on 3-pointers), 3.4 assists, 3.0 rebounds in 28.8 minutes

Free agent wings targeted by Rockets

  • Memphis’ Dillon Brooks, 27 years old: 14.3 points (39.6% FG, 32.6% on 3-pointers), 3.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists in 30.3 minutes
  • Denver’s Bruce Brown, 26 years old: 11.5 points (48.3% FG, 35.8% on 3-pointers), 4.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists in 28.5 minutes
  • Brooklyn’s Cam Johnson (restricted), 27 years old: 15.5 points (47.0% FG, 40.4% on 3-pointers), 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists in 28.5 minutes
  • Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton, 31 years old: 15.1 points (43.6% FG, 31.5% on 3-pointers), 4.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists in 24.3 minutes

Free agent bigs targeted by Rockets

  • Toronto’s Jakob Poeltl, 27 years old: 12.5 points (62.9% FG), 9.1 rebounds, 1.7 blocks in 26.5 minutes
  • Milwaukee’s Brook Lopez, 35 years old: 15.9 points (53.1% FG, 37.4% on 3-pointers), 6.7 rebounds, 2.5 blocks in 30.4 minutes
  • Los Angeles Lakers’ Rui Hachimura (restricted), 25 years old: 11.2 points (48.6% FG, 31.9% on 3-pointers), 4.5 rebounds in 23.3 minutes
  • Dallas’ Dwight Powell, 31 years old: 6.7 points (73.2% FG), 4.1 rebounds in 19.2 minutes
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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14754

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Marc Stein is reporting that the Rockets are the favorites to sign VanVleet and Brooks. Two need positions. I wouldn't go more than 3 years if either of them. The center that makes the most sense is Powell, though he's an average defensive guy. Maybe he will be better without the 2 sieves that are Kyrie and Luka, though the Rockets have plenty of sieves as well. Though Brooks and VanVleet should be pretty good there. I'd also take a look at Mo Bamba if we strike out with the other bigs, the Lakers will likely release him because they have to save money for Hachimura and Reaves. DiVicenzo would be a great 4th guard, and definite improvement over Christopher.

I was reading today about the salary cap, and the Rockets owe the league the difference between what their cap is on the 1st day of the season and the 90% threshold. The league takes that money and divides it among the players.

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Js1

Js1 85449

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23 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

I’d be nervous to sign reaves after watching chandler parsons get a big contract after two good seasons. Reaves only had one good one. No thanks.

That’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14754

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3 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Isn’t the point to sign player(s) who make our first rounders play better, not guys who put up stats while playing with hall of famers?

Correct.

1) Outside of a 2-3 players this isn't a great FA class.

2) If Houston wants a star, they need to develop from the last three drafts. (Green, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, or Whitmore)

3) The only way those players develop into stars is to make the cast around them much better and they start learning how to play to win games.

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Tylerocks

Tylerocks 2553

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

I’d be nervous to sign reaves after watching chandler parsons get a big contract after two good seasons. Reaves only had one good one. No thanks.

 

12 hours ago, Js1 said:

That’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time 

Speaking of...I saw a commercial the other day for some ambulance chasers and he's on there giving a testimonial.

Funny it didn't reference who he was , just his first name.

"Morgan & Morgan got me x$ for my accident..."

What a dips hit he turned out to be.

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10518

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2 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Rockets are preparing to offer VanVleet a 2-year deal for $83.6M. Perfect contract. No deals should be longer than 3 years.

Yeah. I don’t care about the above-market AAV since it’s a short deal. They have to spend it somewhere. And it causes those rival bidders who are up against the cap a real dilemma. 

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Murfdogg21

Murfdogg21 4413

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$42M/yr is steep for Van Vleet, but that might’ve been what it took (probably not because Stone is probably in the running with Caserio for stupidest negotiator as GM in Houston). That’s a huge bump for FVV when you factor in Canadian taxes vs no state income tax. He was probably the #1 free agent in ability to help this team win more games AND make other players better. 

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Slacks

Slacks 6828

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27 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

$42M/yr is steep for Van Vleet, but that might’ve been what it took (probably not because Stone is probably in the running with Caserio for stupidest negotiator as GM in Houston). That’s a huge bump for FVV when you factor in Canadian taxes vs no state income tax. He was probably the #1 free agent in ability to help this team win more games AND make other players better. 

So it's a good deal for both parties. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14754

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I am ok with a VanVleet, Brooks, and Dwight Powell FA class. You get starters that play defense to go with Green, Smith, and Sengun. Powell is a perfect backup for Sengun, can play defense and is a great PnR player to pair with Thompson on the 2nd unit.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14754

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

i'd still kick the tires on a clint capela trade if the hawks are still looking to cut costs.  they may not be though after trading john collins.

Yeah, I don't see them making that move after getting rid of Collins, but supposedly they like Onyeka Okongwu a lot.

I do like this deal Martin, Tate, and Christopher for Royce O'Neal. Probably a better veteran to have at the wing over Brooks. Clears out the backlog of contracts, and O'Neal is only signed through this season. Career 38.4% from BTA.

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