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NBA Playoffs 2023

ztejas

By ztejas
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Blotto

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5 minutes ago, Fastbreak said:

Jokic is just in complete control on O

I'm still laughing at that earlier comment claiming Jokic is the best boring as fuck player we will ever see. There are few players in the league that I'd rather watch. 

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Blotto

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6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m betting on Boston. Philly can easily fuck this up. 

Yeah, I'll have to remember to check the series price when it updates later tonight on my book. Boston at +250 or more would be tempting. I don't really trust Philly either.

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Wulaw Horn

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24 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Yeah, I'll have to remember to check the series price when it updates later tonight on my book. Boston at +250 or more would be tempting. I don't really trust Philly either.

220 would make me bet Boston I think. 250 would be a definite. 

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PittsburghTiger

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8 hours ago, ztejas said:

Booker and Durant are dragging so much fucking dead weight. They really could have used CP tonight. 

I don't know if it was Paul they needed but, they needed something.

The way these rosters are put together it's just not plausible to have much good depth. Ayton makes $30,000,000, Booker makes $33,000,000, Paul makes $28,000,000 and Durant makes $44,000,000. That doesn't leave much, at least in today's world, for anyone else.

Payne makes $6,000,000 and Shamet makes $9,000,000, and I can't tell you that I have ever heard of them.

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ztejas

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35 minutes ago, PittsburghTiger said:

I don't know if it was Paul they needed but, they needed something.

The way these rosters are put together it's just not plausible to have much good depth. Ayton makes $30,000,000, Booker makes $33,000,000, Paul makes $28,000,000 and Durant makes $44,000,000. That doesn't leave much, at least in today's world, for anyone else.

Payne makes $6,000,000 and Shamet makes $9,000,000, and I can't tell you that I have ever heard of them.

They can't go into next season with both DA and CP on the books. My instinct would be dump that DA contract however you can - even if it means throwing a couple 2nd rounders or something in the deal. 

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PittsburghTiger

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21 minutes ago, ztejas said:

They can't go into next season with both DA and CP on the books. My instinct would be dump that DA contract however you can - even if it means throwing a couple 2nd rounders or something in the deal. 

Not to beat a dead horse, or anything but, it would be really interesting to see how the guys/teams back in the 80s would be paid. How could the Lakers pay Jabbar, Magic, Worthy, Wilkes, Scott, Green, etc. or the Celtics; Bird, Parrish, McHale, etc.?

Seems to me a lot of guys would be let go because the rosters just could not be maintained.

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MNLonghornFUKM

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Not to beat a dead horse, or anything but, it would be really interesting to see how the guys/teams back in the 80s would be paid. How could the Lakers pay Jabbar, Magic, Worthy, Wilkes, Scott, Green, etc. or the Celtics; Bird, Parrish, McHale, etc.?
Seems to me a lot of guys would be let go because the rosters just could not be maintained.

Just do what we did with Joe smith but have better accountants
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SilasCoade

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42 minutes ago, ztejas said:

They can't go into next season with both DA and CP on the books. My instinct would be dump that DA contract however you can - even if it means throwing a couple 2nd rounders or something in the deal. 

Suns are going to struggle in the offseason. I guess they had to do it, but the bottom line is they overpaid for KD and that has hurt them in the playoffs and will continue to hurt them in the future. I also think they're just overpaying about a third of their roster -- Ayton, CP3, Shamet, Payne, and Craig.

They are way overpaying him but I think they keep Ayton and try to re-work CP3's deal or just waive him.

I'm not sure who would even be interested in Ayton at that price right now. I guess Dallas is always good for doing something stupid but not sure what they would send back in return. Maybe Memphis is willing to move on from Steven Adams in hopes of getting more switchable on defense and more offensive production. Not sure that helps the Suns much in the short term but Adams only has 2 years on more reasonable deal. Memphis would have to throw in a mid-level guy like Kennard to make the money work. 

The Shamet deal is not quite Bertans-level terrible but it's not a good value for the club.

I'm not sure they can find better value in the short term but you can find similar production in younger players for less than what they're paying Cam Payne.

Landale has probably played his way into a bigger paycheck in the offseason. 

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SilasCoade

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7 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

I said this last year and the year before-- I'll take Ayton on the Mavericks in a heartbeat.

How can they afford him though? If they're paying Luka and Kyrie $40M each, and another $50M is tied up in Bertans, Hardaway, Kleber, and Bullock there's nothing left. Maybe they don't sign Kyrie, but that's a painful epilogue to a wasted season. Maybe they get Phoenix to take Hardaway and Bertans in trade but then they have inherited Phoenix's problem of absolutely zero depth and no cap room to acquire any.

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HamsterHookah

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1 minute ago, SilasCoade said:

How can they afford him though? If they're paying Luka and Kyrie $40M each, and another $50M is tied up in Bertans, Hardaway, Kleber, and Bullock there's nothing left. Maybe they don't sign Kyrie, but that's a painful epilogue to a wasted season. Maybe they get Phoenix to take Hardaway and Bertans in trade but then they have inherited Phoenix's problem of absolutely zero depth and no cap room to acquire any.

Right. I just meant from a body/talent standpoint, as everyone pretty much thinks he is a bum and phoenix hates him. I get it, but on the other hand: Dwight Powell.

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aggie08

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12 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

I said this last year and the year before-- I'll take Ayton on the Mavericks in a heartbeat.

Definitely. He's the exact personality you want in that locker room instilling professionalism and work ethic and reigniting Luka's love of basketball.

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ztejas

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3 minutes ago, SilasCoade said:

but the bottom line is they overpaid for KD and that has hurt them in the playoffs and will continue to hurt them in the future.

Completely disagree it has hurt them in the playoffs. I'm not sure what % of Booker going nuclear is attributable to Durant being on the floor but it's significant. Every team in the league would take KD and TJ Warren over Bridges and Cam Johnson in a playoff series and the fact that they've taken 2 games off what is most likely the best team in the NBA largely bears that out.

I mean - if you want to tell me that you had the Phoenix team we saw through February over this Denver team in a playoff series then okay. I don't think there's any way they'd be up 3-2 right now. 

 

Does it hurt them in the future? Maybe. Depends on what you think Bridges ceiling is. I'm not sure he'll ever be good enough to be the 2nd best player on a title team next to Booker. He's certainly not good enough to be the #1 guy on a team and win any playoff games. The '27 and '29 picks may wind up being good ones. The '23 one is meh and the '25 one likely won't be great. 

'21 was their best shot with that core and they weren't good enough. The "bottom line" is that you aren't winning a title with $60M committed to Ayton and CP and I believe that you agree with me there. The Durant vs. Bridges and picks debate is completely academic until they do something with at least one of those albatross contracts. 

1 hour ago, SilasCoade said:

I'm not sure who would even be interested in Ayton at that price right now. I guess Dallas is always good for doing something stupid but not sure what they would send back in return. Maybe Memphis is willing to move on from Steven Adams in hopes of getting more switchable on defense and more offensive production. Not sure that helps the Suns much in the short term but Adams only has 2 years on more reasonable deal. Memphis would have to throw in a mid-level guy like Kennard to make the money work. 

I'm guessing it would be a lottery team that's rebuilding and has cap space to burn. You take a flier on him because he's still young and see if you can squeeze something else out of PHO. Like you said, the tricky part is matching the salaries and PHO getting contracts in return that feasibly make the team better next season. I know CP's contract is only 25% guaranteed over the next 2 seasons - I'm not sure how that works trade-wise - I think they can waive him and only eat $15M in 23-24?

Ishbia and the FO have their work cut out but he's already proven he isn't afraid to blow it up. They just need another couple sticks of dynamite. It's not like they're that far off - they're making the 1 seed and best player in the league earn it. 

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SilasCoade

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44 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Completely disagree it has hurt them in the playoffs. I'm not sure what % of Booker going nuclear is attributable to Durant being on the floor but it's significant. Every team in the league would take KD and TJ Warren over Bridges and Cam Johnson in a playoff series and the fact that they've taken 2 games off what is most likely the best team in the NBA largely bears that out.

I mean - if you want to tell me that you had the Phoenix team we saw through February over this Denver team in a playoff series then okay. I don't think there's any way they'd be up 3-2 right now. 

Well, I guess I mean the lack of depth has hurt them. Those two guys conceivably match KD's 30pts/game between them and keep phoenix from having to start a bum like Okogie or give 25+ minutes to Shamet. Maybe Booker's production suffers a dip without the gravity KD exerts, but I don't think so. He's getting a lot of iso and making jump shots.

It's also clear that Denver has stepped up their game this  series. Jokic is doing Jokic things per usual, but Murray and MPJ and especially Gordon have been playing above their level from the regular season.

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ztejas

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1 hour ago, SilasCoade said:

Well, I guess I mean the lack of depth has hurt them. Those two guys conceivably match KD's 30pts/game between them and keep phoenix from having to start a bum like Okogie or give 25+ minutes to Shamet. Maybe Booker's production suffers a dip without the gravity KD exerts, but I don't think so. He's getting a lot of iso and making jump shots.

Durant does a lot more than just what shows up in the box score. Without even scoring he transforms other team's defensive gameplans. Watch every time he touches the ball and count how many times the other team doesn't either outright double him, bring help when he drives, or shade at least one player towards him. It's virtually zero. Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson haven't drawn that type of attention one time in their careers. Mikal is a great defensive player but the difference in his defensive impact vs. someone like Shamet isn't as great as the difference between KD and Cam Johnson. Cam's career high in TRB% over a season is 8.6 and he hasn't posted a BLK% above 1.0 since his rookie season. Durant is posting 14.6 and 3.2 respectively in this Nuggets series. Those are per possession numbers. He is easily the best defensive rebounder and rim protector on the team and that's while he's posting 30 ppg at their team average efficiency.

As for Booker - he has never had a stretch this good in his entire career - especially when you adjust for it being the playoffs. Career playoffs in 32 games Booker was 26 ppg on 45/35 splits with 4.5 assists and 3.5 turnovers before this season. This season he's at 36 ppg on 60/52 with 7.1 assists to 3.0 turnovers in 10 games. I find it basically impossible to believe that he's made one of the greatest volume + efficiency jumps in NBA history independent of playing next to someone that commands more defensive attention than all but maybe 3 guys ever. He is getting worse defenders on him. He is getting guys on him that are more fatigued because they're chasing Durant around. He is seeing far fewer double teams. 

That isn't to take anything away from Booker. He's been phenomenal - and is playing like the clear best player on the team. There are a ton of buckets - maybe even the majority - where it doesn’t matter who he's on the floor with. But he is still public enemy #2 in the eyes of the opposing defense and as a result he is enjoying a massive bump in efficiency at the margins. 

This Nuggets team is really, really fucking good. I don't think they would have had any issue dispatching a Chris Paul-less Phoenix team where they could have just blitzed Devin Booker on every possession (and where Phoenix would be wholly reliant on Ayton to clean up the glass and protect the rim against Jokic). Mikal Bridges is not going to beat you by himself when you do that. Kevin Durant will. 

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Chewbacca

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5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

This Nuggets team is really, really fucking good. I don't think they would have had any issue dispatching a Chris Paul-less Phoenix team where they could have just blitzed Devin Booker on every possession (and where Phoenix would be wholly reliant on Ayton to clean up the glass and protect the rim against Jokic). Mikal Bridges is not going to beat you by himself when you do that. Kevin Durant will. 

Nobody in the West can beat them when they play like they did last night.  When Jokic has a 25-30 point triple double (meaning other guys are hitting open shots when he passes to them), they boat race a lot of teams.  The Suns are gonna have to get 70-80+ from KD and Booker to bring this one back to Denver.  They just don't have any depth left after the KD trade.  Old man KD can still bring it, though.  I fucking hate Devin Booker.  Looks like a fucking rat with his beady eyes.

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Wulaw Horn

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2 hours ago, ztejas said:

Completely disagree it has hurt them in the playoffs. I'm not sure what % of Booker going nuclear is attributable to Durant being on the floor but it's significant. Every team in the league would take KD and TJ Warren over Bridges and Cam Johnson in a playoff series and the fact that they've taken 2 games off what is most likely the best team in the NBA largely bears that out.

I mean - if you want to tell me that you had the Phoenix team we saw through February over this Denver team in a playoff series then okay. I don't think there's any way they'd be up 3-2 right now. 

 

Does it hurt them in the future? Maybe. Depends on what you think Bridges ceiling is. I'm not sure he'll ever be good enough to be the 2nd best player on a title team next to Booker. He's certainly not good enough to be the #1 guy on a team and win any playoff games. The '27 and '29 picks may wind up being good ones. The '23 one is meh and the '25 one likely won't be great. 

'21 was their best shot with that core and they weren't good enough. The "bottom line" is that you aren't winning a title with $60M committed to Ayton and CP and I believe that you agree with me there. The Durant vs. Bridges and picks debate is completely academic until they do something with at least one of those albatross contracts. 

I'm guessing it would be a lottery team that's rebuilding and has cap space to burn. You take a flier on him because he's still young and see if you can squeeze something else out of PHO. Like you said, the tricky part is matching the salaries and PHO getting contracts in return that feasibly make the team better next season. I know CP's contract is only 25% guaranteed over the next 2 seasons - I'm not sure how that works trade-wise - I think they can waive him and only eat $15M in 23-24?

Ishbia and the FO have their work cut out but he's already proven he isn't afraid to blow it up. They just need another couple sticks of dynamite. It's not like they're that far off - they're making the 1 seed and best player in the league earn it. 

Rockets have plenty of cap space and could just trade him without anything coming back. I’d absolutely as a rockets fan be thrilled with Harden and Ayton and the #1 pick. 
not sure what Phoenix would want back for him. 

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LTtxfan

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16 hours ago, PittsburghTiger said:

Boston looked like complete shit. This is fascinating. Their shot selection was amazingly bad. Both teams shot a ton of FTs so nobody can look at that as a reason.

The Boston coach seems worthless... 

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