India - Burgeoning Global Superpower -- Friend & Foe?

[HamsterHookah 112]

I've been meaning to ask any Indiaphiles what the consensus is on India geopolitically speaking.

They are obviously a hyperfast growing economy the past few decades. They churn out a ton of intelligent-cum-wealthy (or at least, upper middleclass) immigrants to developed nations with established economies and markets (A large % of Indian origin people are CEO's of F500 even, the second largest after white males by a long shot), and the general transformation of their country the last half of the century has been nothing short of remarkable and impressive. In fact, I think they are taking 25% of the Apple manufacturing from China as well.

That said, they routinely talk out of both sides of their mouth-- friend to Russia and friend to China and friend to USA and friend to EU. If you take out the moral implications, it's actually impressive how India has been able to be self-serving and do what's best for them, with parties that hate each other.

India has nukes and they are soon to be the most populous country in the world (though as of press time, their army sucks).

That said, is this not worrisome:

Quote

 

Russia and India have resumed free trade discussions after initial talks were delayed by Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s Deputy PM made the announcement while visiting Delhi yesterday (Monday).

Even without a free trade agreement (FTA), India-Russia trade is flourishing. Russia’s exports to India have quadrupled since the West sanctioned Moscow last year. India now imports half its oil from Russia, up from 1% before the war.

And Russia isn’t the only one hoping to ink an FTA with India. Others are also lining up, as India surpasses China to become the world’s most populous country.

 

Could India potentially be a new "China" in a decade? What I mean is, not in a humans rights violations way, but in a power that the US cannot bully and bluster to get what we want, and must be cede to at times?

Edited April 18, 2023 by HamsterHookah

[horn4life 3755]

Former Friend - TBD?

[HamsterHookah 112]

1 minute ago, horn4life said:

Former Friend - TBD?

Frenemy?

[Willfully Horn 7918]

I have heard stories for most my life, about how citizens from a given country really like US citizens, but distrust the US government. And vice versa. I love Indian cultures, and food, and novelists. But I hate fascists, and authoritarians, so, I guess that country belongs with all the other countries that have the ability to fuck shit up on a massive scale.

Love the people. Distrust the government.

[HamsterHookah 112]

5 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

I have heard stories for most my life, about how citizens from a given country really like US citizens, but distrust the US government. And vice versa. I love Indian cultures, and food, and novelists. But I hate fascists, and authoritarians, so, I guess that country belongs with all the other countries that have the ability to fuck shit up on a massive scale.

Love the people. Distrust the government.

Further to note on India's growth and now their leverage:

Quote

According to a State Bank of India report, India will be the world’s third largest economy by 2029, up from the tenth slot in 2014.

which then answers why we don't bully them or shame them (I'd wager most American's don't even know or realize India is fueling Russia right now while they are in the teeth of western sanctions and would be horrified if they knew, and yes, pun intended).:

Quote

A US official said the US won’t look to sanction India for buying Russian oil, as India is one of its “most consequential relationships.”

which of course is code for, "we need them and can't bully them around, so we have to grin and bear them being self-centered".

[totallynotabuttpirate 5342]

3 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

...cum-wealthy....

How do you determine if one is "cum-wealthy"? Asking for a friend. 

[HamsterHookah 112]

15 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

How do you determine if one is "cum-wealthy"? Asking for a friend. 

Username checks out.

Also, if you can lose $50bn in 48 hours is the standard test: https://www.thestreet.com/technology/billionaire-adanis-empire-loses-51-billion-in-48-hours

[bolverk 29407]

I don't know a whole helluvalot about Indian foreign policy but have heard they have a couple of chips on their shoulder. 1) General distrust of the West, especially the UK, because of that whole colonialism thing that ended very badly in the late 1940s and 2) general unease with the US because of our long-term support of Pakistan, a neighbor they don't along with too well.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

3 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

which then answers why we don't bully them or shame them (I'd wager most American's don't even know or realize India is fueling Russia right now while they are in the teeth of western sanctions and would be horrified if they knew, and yes, pun intended).:

which of course is code for, "we need them and can't bully them around, so we have to grin and bear them being self-centered".

As bolverk mentioned, we (our government) backs Pakistan at times, so we have to admit that India has every right to be pissed at us.

India is buying from Russia at discounted rates, so on the one hand it's helping Russia, but on the other it's helping India a lot more.

We also see/need them as a counterweight to China.

If you want to take the really long game approach, India will pass China up at some point and not just in population either, but China's declining population and their one-child policy/favoring male children from decades past really fucked them over and those chickens are coming home to roost over the next few decades.

[Mullet Free 40]

The world’s largest democracy. Seems like we should lean towards working with them. 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

57 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

The world’s largest democracy. 

[HamsterHookah 112]

India better put on some shades or risk being blinded by the spotlight. It’s due to surpass China as the most populous country on the planet this year, according to a UN report released this week. And word on the pundit street is that it’s poised to get bigger in another way—by rivaling China and the US as a major economic superpower.

India has already eclipsed its former colonizer, the United Kingdom, as the world’s fifth-largest economy, and it’s projected to nick Germany’s No. 4 spot by 2025, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects India’s GDP to grow by 5.9% this year, more than any of the other 30 largest economies.

India’s domination of the global economy is far from guaranteed. Let’s explore why India’s future looks bright, and some of the obstacles on its path to international economic stardom.

The India “buy” case

India has a lot going for it, including a massive labor force. There are 900 million(!) working-age people in India. And that number is increasing—unlike in most major economies, where an aging population is sapping economic growth.

At the same time, India’s government has shoveled cash into infrastructure improvements and nixed some burdensome regulations to lure foreign investment. It’s paying off: Companies looking to diversify their supply chains away from China have embraced India as an alternative manufacturing hub. Apple recently began assembling its new iPhone in the country, and Volvo signaled it might start building EVs there.

But India also has plenty of homegrown success stories.

Over 100 unicorn startups call India home, and its $24 billion in venture capital investments last year put it in fourth place globally, ahead of Germany and Israel.

A long list of Indian-born business talents has achieved great heights internationally, including Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.

Meanwhile, its growing middle class is a gold mine for multinationals searching for the next big untapped consumer market. The first Apple Stores opened in the country this week, and in March, Dior went all out with a Bollywood-star-studded fashion show in Mumbai.

What’s holding India back?

Simply having a lot of people doesn’t mean that the workforce will be vibrant: India’s education system struggles to prepare job candidates for successful careers and strains the country’s social fabric. According to NPR, the unemployment rate in India for college grads is 20%.

A big rift between the rich and poor, still-deficient infrastructure, corruption, and waste management woes could give companies second thoughts about doing business in India.

Tough tariffs and messy politics might also act like a foreign investment repellant. Critics are sounding the alarm about the authoritarian tendencies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government and warn that his heavy-handed tactics in dealing with political opponents are a red flag for businesses.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Abhijit Banerjee thinks India should look inward before it projects its economic ambitions abroad. He says tackling runaway inflation and focusing on societal health will go a long way in wooing international investors.

Zoom out: The UN says that India’s population could start declining in 2047. Its current window to become a world economic power is wide open, but won’t be for long.

[HamsterHookah 112]

Índia, by being self-focused (NTTIWWT) is indirectly aiding Russia and killing Ukranians:

Quote

 

Russia is reportedly preparing to restock its foreign currency reserves for the first time since its invasion of Ukraine. This pivot from burning cash to stashing it suggests Moscow is managing to mend its budget, which has buckled under massive wartime spending.

[Chinese and...]Indian purchases have helped push Russian oil exports to their highest volumes since early 2020. But Western sanctions have suppressed Russian oil prices, so its revenues are still 43% lower than a year ago.

So all in all, the market seems to be telling us that Western sanctions are biting, just not enough to end Russia’s war machine. At least, not yet.

 

 

[Horn Dogg 3808]

The food is pretty good there

[HonkeyVape 107]

Narenda Modi vising Biden this week for a state dinner. 

It's pretty deft and artful how India is able to play nice with both the West and Russia and China, juggling all the balls in the air, while growing their GDP and economy at the same time. 

Modi is problematic with his ties to Adani and there are some anti-democracy accusations (mostly around media and censorship), but when I ask my Indian friends they all seem to like him because he is strong and aggressive versus being servile and taking a backseat to Europe/US

[SydneyCarton 47888]

It's pretty easy to stand on your own two feet when you have a billion citizens, are a nuclear power, and have plenty of your own industry, a top 5 world GDP, and an army that recently pistol whipped China like the douche from Goodfellas and has been laughing about it ever since. I'm not sure that requires all that much "deftness." Basically, they're in a position to tell anyone they want to fuck off, and people are going to be hesitant to call them to account because doing so will have negative ramifications on the folks doing the calling. Like Trump's fucking trade war with China that cost us a trillion or so dollars right off the top. 

It doesn't change the fact that Modi is a populist with plenty of anti-democratic tendencies. Lol at calling them "accusations." Not that anyone is shocked you'd couch easily verifiable behavior as an "accusation, and not that anyone here is surprised you're ready to hit your knees to suck off a populist autocrat. He's undermined their judges, their independent voting agency, their free press. Specifically he has expelled his opposition from parliament, taken over an independent television station critical to him, and "forced" twitter to censor shit critical to his government. 

Yeah, he's a real hero.solo

Edited June 21, 2023 by SydneyCarton

[tx 3 putt 76411]

On 4/18/2023 at 3:44 PM, bolverk said:

I don't know a whole helluvalot about Indian foreign policy but have heard they have a couple of chips on their shoulder. 1) General distrust of the West, especially the UK, because of that whole colonialism thing that ended very badly in the late 1940s and 2) general unease with the US because of our long-term support of Pakistan, a neighbor they don't along with too well.

pakistan and India will end up nuke’n each other 

[HonkeyVape 107]

On 6/21/2023 at 2:13 PM, SydneyCarton said:

It's pretty easy to stand on your own two feet when you have a billion citizens, are a nuclear power, and have plenty of your own industry, a top 5 world GDP, and an army that recently pistol whipped China like the douche from Goodfellas and has been laughing about it ever since. I'm not sure that requires all that much "deftness." Basically, they're in a position to tell anyone they want to fuck off, and people are going to be hesitant to call them to account because doing so will have negative ramifications on the folks doing the calling. Like Trump's fucking trade war with China that cost us a trillion or so dollars right off the top. 

It doesn't change the fact that Modi is a populist with plenty of anti-democratic tendencies. Lol at calling them "accusations." Not that anyone is shocked you'd couch easily verifiable behavior as an "accusation, and not that anyone here is surprised you're ready to hit your knees to suck off a populist autocrat. He's undermined their judges, their independent voting agency, their free press. Specifically he has expelled his opposition from parliament, taken over an independent television station critical to him, and "forced" twitter to censor shit critical to his government. 

Yeah, he's a real hero.solo

Funny you said that me saying he's accused of anti-democratic actions is "hitting my knees...", but no comment on the lavish state dinner and heroes welcome that Biden/USA gave him?

--

In other news (link at bottom):

Has India reached peak Russian oil?

India is hoovering up discounted Russian oil that’s been shunned by Western buyers. But there’s speculation this spree might be maxing out.

India gets nearly all its oil from abroad. And traditionally only around 1% has come from Russia, or around 43,000 barrels per day (bpd). But post-invasion, India now gets almost half its oil from Russia, or 2.3 million bpd.

So why are folks saying India might’ve reached its limit?

 Infrastructure: Few Indian refineries are equipped to process the Urals crude that Russia produces. And fewer seem interested in building the new infrastructure needed to handle more Urals.

 Currencies: India-Russia negotiations over longer term contracts recently collapsed, in part because Western sanctions prevent India from paying in US dollars, but Russia doesn’t want Indian rupees.

 Geopolitics: India’s purchase of Russian oil not only irritates the West, but potentially also India’s long-time suppliers like Saudi Arabia.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-russian-oil-buying-scales-new-highs-may-trade-2023-06-21/

Edited July 3, 2023 by HonkeyVape

[SydneyCarton 47888]

2 hours ago, HonkeyVape said:

Funny you said that me saying he's accused of anti-democratic actions is "hitting my knees...", but no comment on the lavish state dinner and heroes welcome that Biden/USA gave him?

--

In other news (link at bottom):

Has India reached peak Russian oil?

India is hoovering up discounted Russian oil that’s been shunned by Western buyers. But there’s speculation this spree might be maxing out.

India gets nearly all its oil from abroad. And traditionally only around 1% has come from Russia, or around 43,000 barrels per day (bpd). But post-invasion, India now gets almost half its oil from Russia, or 2.3 million bpd.

So why are folks saying India might’ve reached its limit?

 Infrastructure: Few Indian refineries are equipped to process the Urals crude that Russia produces. And fewer seem interested in building the new infrastructure needed to handle more Urals.

 Currencies: India-Russia negotiations over longer term contracts recently collapsed, in part because Western sanctions prevent India from paying in US dollars, but Russia doesn’t want Indian rupees.

 Geopolitics: India’s purchase of Russian oil not only irritates the West, but potentially also India’s long-time suppliers like Saudi Arabia.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-russian-oil-buying-scales-new-highs-may-trade-2023-06-21/

Simmering from a 2 week old post? It’s almost like you literally missed the whole point of my fucking post. Which is so sadly consistent for you. 
 

When you have over a billion people, the worlds 5th largest economy, and are a nuclear power you can do whatever the fuck you want. Like suppress anti democratic tendencies. 
 

Do Biden hosted him for a stage dinner? The only point of your post is to throw shade at biden, and be political, certainly not make any point germane to my statements. The US hosts him because hes indispensable right now if you’re fighting China and sanctioning Russia. Period. Politics are complicated. It doesn’t remake anything staged about Modi incorrect. 

[HonkeyVape 107]

29 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Simmering from a 2 week old post? It’s almost like you literally missed the whole point of my fucking post. Which is so sadly consistent for you. 
 

When you have over a billion people, the worlds 5th largest economy, and are a nuclear power you can do whatever the fuck you want. Like suppress anti democratic tendencies. 
 

Do Biden hosted him for a stage dinner? The only point of your post is to throw shade at biden, and be political, certainly not make any point germane to my statements. The US hosts him because hes indispensable right now if you’re fighting China and sanctioning Russia. Period. Politics are complicated. It doesn’t remake anything staged about Modi incorrect. 

I literally just saw it today when I went to post something. I didn't see it because you didn't use the reply or @ function, but sure, simmering about it if it makes you feel even one ounce better today

Do Biden hosted him for a stage dinner? I don't know, because I don't speak Cro-Magnon man and even if I did, I don't even think you know what you are asking there.

[Hornius Emeritus 12420]

On 5/3/2023 at 12:00 PM, Horn Dogg said:

The food is pretty good there

As a huge fan of Saag Paneer, I welcome our new Indian overlords.

[SydneyCarton 47888]

46 minutes ago, HonkeyVape said:

I literally just saw it today when I went to post something. I didn't see it because you didn't use the reply or @ function, but sure, simmering about it if it makes you feel even one ounce better today

Do Biden hosted him for a stage dinner? I don't know, because I don't speak Cro-Magnon man and even if I did, I don't even think you know what you are asking there.

Oh I’m sorry for two auto correct typos. That’s the best you can do, while again ignoring anyone else’s points, typo smack? It’s as pathetic as being banned from a website a dozen times and continuing to return because your life is empty. Speaking of which, I’m on vacation with my family, I think I’ll stop wasting time with your pathetic, needy posting. 

[HonkeyVape 107]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Oh I’m sorry for two auto correct typos. That’s the best you can do, while again ignoring anyone else’s points, typo smack? It’s as pathetic as being banned from a website a dozen times and continuing to return because your life is empty. Speaking of which, I’m on vacation with my family, I think I’ll stop wasting time with your pathetic, needy posting. 

Even now, it's hard to read because I know how much effort this took and generally how much effort you make and yet you still consistently confuse yourself and matters.

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

Meh, they don't even have toilets.

[Brisketexan 104631]

6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Meh, they don't even have toilets.

Counterpoint: apparently, neither does much of Russia.

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: apparently, neither does much of Russia.

And we've found out they ain't shit.

[InkaUtexas 25524]

Plus they can march......

 

[Brisketexan 104631]

22 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

And we've found out they ain't shit.

Counterpoint: we've found out that they can inflict serious fucking pain due to sheer numbers of disposal humans.  Who else has lots of disposable humans?  Yeah.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2799]

[The Original Greaser Bob 2799]

45 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Meh, they don't even have toilets.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2799]

You guys can use this if you haven't heard it because it's a huge hit with kids, even if they don't know what the fuck you're talking about, as long as you do the accent really strong and loud.

Q: "Why is there no Halloween in India?"

A:  (In you most overthetop Indian accent)  "Someone took all the Ghandi!"

[chainsaw 9838]

24 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

You guys can use this if you haven't heard it because it's a huge hit with kids, even if they don't know what the fuck you're talking about, as long as you do the accent really strong and loud.

Q: "Why is there no Halloween in India?"

A:  (In you most overthetop Indian accent)  "Someone took all the Ghandi!"

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

28 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

You guys can use this if you haven't heard it because it's a huge hit with kids, even if they don't know what the fuck you're talking about, as long as you do the accent really strong and loud.

Q: "Why is there no Halloween in India?"

A:  (In you most overthetop Indian accent)  "Someone took all the Ghandi!"

Make sure to roll your head side to side for full points.

[InkaUtexas 25524]

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I think it should be "Oh, Gods."

[LCHorn 2585]

1 hour ago, BeardIP said:

I find it interesting that India gets a pass from our collective (ethnocentrism/American) mindshare to their duplicity and cut-throatedness.

I don’t think they are getting a pass-they haven’t ever been a reliable regional ally (that was Pakistan, although it’s always one of those “with friends like these…” relationships) and they are useful as a counter balance to Chinese power.  

[nbmishoid 941]

Their importance is increasing.   But their reliability is low.  Not really a friend, as the US defines it (do what I say)

[LCHorn 2585]

9 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

If this thread is any indication, they are getting a pass if for no other reason than nobody takes them serious and they are just the butt of our jokes...until they aren't.

I don’t think it’s that, we just have rivals that need more urgent attention.  India appears be almost wholly unable to project strength outside its own borders (or chooses to not), while bad actors like Iran and China keep us engaged more deeply in the mid-East and needing to focus on our own domestic concerns, respectively (there’s a very good Politico article out today on Jake Sullivan and his role in articulating a post Reagan-Clinton-Bush era of “free trade” and democracy exportation-it makes the point that Chinese government subsidies for key industries have made it an unfair competition.  That may be going on, too, in India, but I don’t think they are considered a peer threat to US business interests).  

[The Original Greaser Bob 2799]

Interesting that two of my top 10 foods sound like a Nicaraguan Dictator.

Samosas.

Samoas

[chainsaw 9838]

It's shocking that a country of that size can't produce a single five star recruit

[tx 3 putt 76411]

China is the threat to India, not the US

[elfenix 34172]

5 hours ago, BeardIP said:

I find it interesting that India gets a pass from our collective (ethnocentrism/American) mindshare to their duplicity and cut-throatedness. In this case it's buying Russia's oil (and thus funding Putin directly to kill Ukrainians) while everyone else is trying to figure out how to make sacrifices to help Ukraine. It's a spit in the face to the West, really.

I don't know if it's because American Indians are so successful and increasingly powerful (title/status/wealth) or if it's because of old insidious racist stereotypes (docile as a Hindu cow, model minority, etc.) but they have grown exponentially in power and strength pretty much unabated. 

It's an understanding that India's primary foreign policy concern is keeping China somewhat in check and that doesn't happen if Dehli abandons Moscow entirely. India is abandoning Russian arms.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-pivots-away-russian-arms-will-retain-strong-ties-2024-01-28/

 

And keep in mind we also don't want Russia to become (even more of) a mining colony for China

Edited February 20 by elfenix

[Neonmoon 38127]

6 hours ago, BeardIP said:

I find it interesting that India gets a pass from our collective (ethnocentrism/American) mindshare to their duplicity and cut-throatedness. In this case it's buying Russia's oil (and thus funding Putin directly to kill Ukrainians) while everyone else is trying to figure out how to make sacrifices to help Ukraine. It's a spit in the face to the West, really.

I don't know if it's because American Indians are so successful and increasingly powerful (title/status/wealth) or if it's because of old insidious racist stereotypes (docile as a Hindu cow, model minority, etc.) but they have grown exponentially in power and strength pretty much unabated. 

You want us to kill India? They are growing in power unabated? America is distracted by China? What?

[chainsaw 9838]

9 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

You want us to kill India? They are growing in power unabated? America is distracted by China? What?

Not to be that guy, but I would like to know how much of that $877B has any relationship to the actual products being purchased and how much of it is lining the pockets of middlemen. I'm sure there are middlemen with China's and Russia's expenditures too but there's no way we aren't getting completely swindled by these defense contractors.

[F250 28692]

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Not to be that guy, but I would like to know how much of that $877B has any relationship to the actual products being purchased and how much of it is lining the pockets of middlemen. I'm sure there are middlemen with China's and Russia's expenditures too but there's no way we aren't getting completely swindled by these defense contractors.

I've seen defense companies fill slots with people that were paid to just sit in an office so that they could bill the military for the filled position.

I also had an uncle that worked at Kelly AFB back in the day and I am pretty sure that place is in the Hall of Fame for wasted defense spending.

[Smax 3800]

2 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Not to be that guy, but I would like to know how much of that $877B has any relationship to the actual products being purchased and how much of it is lining the pockets of middlemen. I'm sure there are middlemen with China's and Russia's expenditures too but there's no way we aren't getting completely swindled by these defense contractors.

 

 

 

[BamaATL 16592]

3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

China is the threat to India, not the US

The real threat might actually be pollution; for a country of over a billion, infertility is on the rise in a huge way.  Approximately 1 in 15 couples in India are infertile and that is trending upwards. While there are many potential causes, environmental causes are certainly at play.  Their population may well be headed for decline just like China's, albeit for very different reasons.  

 

[Surly Bevo 24696]

5 hours ago, chainsaw said:

It's shocking that a country of that size can't produce a single five star recruit

You interning for Three Year Letterman?

[tx 3 putt 76411]

3 hours ago, elfenix said:

It's an understanding that India's primary foreign policy concern is keeping China somewhat in check and that doesn't happen if Dehli abandons Moscow entirely. India is abandoning Russian arms.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-pivots-away-russian-arms-will-retain-strong-ties-2024-01-28/

 

And keep in mind we also don't want Russia to become (even more of) a mining colony for China

hopefully chinese military tech is based on russian tech

 

 

 

5 hours ago, chainsaw said:

It's shocking that a country of that size can't produce a single five star recruit

Edited February 20 by tx 3 putt

[Dnaguy 11777]

2 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Modi/BJP to start elections soon. Gamblers are predicting a landslide, for a 3rd term, which is almost unprecedented, but he's that popular. His opponents are concerned he will veer into dictatorship if he is elected by the landslide.

Saw a stat over 49 MILLION new voters since the last election (turning of age) in India. The whole election process takes like 6 weeks and costs $8 Billion dollars, there are so many people and places.

Crazy.

Oh, and India is still funding Russia and not even hiding it in the West's face, which is indirectly killing Ukranians and costing the West a ton of money in in aid and support. Doesn't seem like there are plans to stop either.

India doesn’t really give a shit about sustaining the old world order. Their aversion to the west due to colonialism isn’t surprising but also something that can really present a thorn when it comes to US foreign policy…. Which is crazy due to the fact that they’re the worlds largest democracy.

[elfenix 34172]

8 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

flaunt their funding Russia's war in our faces thus far.