2024 Transfer Thread - The Pedantic Circlejerk

[MuellerHorn 4228]

2 hours ago, NoName said:

he couldn't beat out Seth McLaughlin at center last year, so probably not

 

Man, the Brocks were so damn overrated out of high school. 

[Atticus 3973]

17 minutes ago, bEastTexas said:

Saban did a good job of churning his roster but his development was also outrageous. People have ran the numbers and his hit rate on 5* was around 50% while the rest of CFB’s was 20-25%. 

This is suspect, how did they define the hit rate? Bama has had a lot of guys not pan out, but they bring in so many decently vetted 5 stars that they hit on enough to look good.

Edited March 18 by Atticus

[bEastTexas 497]

3 minutes ago, Atticus said:

This is suspect, how did they define the hit rate? Bama has had a lot of guys not pan out, but they bring in so many decently vetted 5 stars that they hit on enough to look good.

I was a little off, 71% drafted and 45% went in the 1st round. Link below with the full article. 
 

https://www.si.com/college/alabama/player-development/nick-saban-turned-alabama-five-star-u

[Dbeasy 15042]

Just now, bEastTexas said:

I was a little off, 71% drafted and 45% went in the 1st round. Link below with the full article. 
 

https://www.si.com/college/alabama/player-development/nick-saban-turned-alabama-five-star-u

That’s what I thought. Your percentages for 5 stars seemed too low. So has Saban had a higher hit rate on 5 stars, or just basically average?

[Thiefery 4995]

26 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

Man, the Brocks were so damn overrated out of high school. 

Tommy wasn't.. he was dominating camps prior to his injury.. his lil bro is a different story though.. but he shot up the rankings and was the #1 Center in the country (lol)

[bEastTexas 497]

9 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

That’s what I thought. Your percentages for 5 stars seemed too low. So has Saban had a higher hit rate on 5 stars, or just basically average?

There’s a chart in the article, if you add up everybody else and compare them to Saban/Bama it’s pretty staggering. Drafted Bama 71% vs Field 59% but 1st rounders Bama 45% vs Field 17%. The mother fucker could develop no doubt. 

[Laga4 1270]

On 3/16/2024 at 9:43 PM, Bevo said:

Development is mostly BS anyway. Look at the percentage of Alabama recruits who were busts. Saban just did a good job of churning through the roster and bringing in a healthy number of replacements. They didn't have guys in their program hanging on like we did.

Not sure I agree with this.  

TCU,  KSU and that type of program have made a living developing players.  

[Bevo 13570]

12 minutes ago, Laga4 said:

Not sure I agree with this.  

TCU,  KSU and that type of program have made a living developing players.  

So, here is an article on Alabama bust rates: https://www.rollbamaroll.com/2023/7/11/23789325/alabama-hasnt-won-a-national-championship-since-2020-are-recruiting-busts-to-blame : The article doesn't matter much but its point was that lower bust rates meant more championships. Well, Saban always recruited well but at times he took guys who were highly rated by the magazines but we as fans had questions about for one reason or another. I assume that the Bama staff had questions as well but they didn't get all the guys that they wanted. The point is that Alabama didn't develop players better some years than others. Instead, I would say that they recruited better players some years over other years.

 

[Jimmy Two Times 795]

1 hour ago, Laga4 said:

Not sure I agree with this.  

TCU,  KSU and that type of program have made a living developing players.  

Not just that, but development on the fringes of recruiting classes is very important. Turning 3 star types like Murphy/Sweat, Chris Olave, Jordan Davis and Ladd McConkey into Day 1 guys can push a talented program over the edge. That said, the name of the game is still stacking your team with stud top 20 guys that require minimal development to contribute at a high level. 

[Drifterwood 159]

Not just that, but development on the fringes of recruiting classes is very important. Turning 3 star types like Murphy/Sweat, Chris Olave, Jordan Davis and Ladd McConkey into Day 1 guys can push a talented program over the edge. That said, the name of the game is still stacking your team with stud top 20 guys that require minimal development to contribute at a high level. 

Seems like putting 3 stars in the league would be a mix of good evaluations and development, not necessarily just development

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20393]

1 hour ago, Drifterwood said:

Seems like putting 3 stars in the league would be a mix of good evaluations and development, not necessarily just development

Good thing Jimmy Two Times didn't say "just"  development. 

[Atticus 3973]

4 hours ago, bEastTexas said:

I was a little off, 71% drafted and 45% went in the 1st round. Link below with the full article. 
 

https://www.si.com/college/alabama/player-development/nick-saban-turned-alabama-five-star-u

The numbers in that article are suspect. 

Also, it says Bama had a 45.2% hit rate, but the number is 10/42, which is actually 23.8%

If you look at some of the numbers for other schools, it uses the same (5-star first rounders/5 star recruits) and has more accurate numbers listed.

Shit, even Florida and Clemson have higher numbers there.

[Ricky's one-hitter 9084]

21 minutes ago, Atticus said:

The numbers in that article are suspect. 

Also, it says Bama had a 45.2% hit rate, but the number is 10/42, which is actually 23.8%

If you look at some of the numbers for other schools, it uses the same (5-star first rounders/5 star recruits) and has more accurate numbers listed.

Shit, even Florida and Clemson have higher numbers there.

Color me shocked that an SI article wasn't subject to editorial review. 

The number in the table is wrong. They're saying of 42 5* players recruited, 30 were drafted and 19*** went first round. 

Quote

I ran it in excel and everything else in the table is correct

Spoiler

 

[tokamak 6395]

Would be interesting to see some metric of NFL success as well. Were Bama guys under Saban truly just developed into better football players, or were they benefiting from a halo effect and being overdrafted because Bama?

[Michael Knight 12977]

4 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Would be interesting to see some metric of NFL success as well. Were Bama guys under Saban truly just developed into better football players, or were they benefiting from a halo effect and being overdrafted because Bama?

Yes

[Farmer Vincent 43]

6 hours ago, Thiefery said:

Tommy wasn't.. he was dominating camps prior to his injury.. his lil bro is a different story though.. but he shot up the rankings and was the #1 Center in the country (lol)

I guess we can debate wether Tommy Brockermyer was overrated, but he was an unquestioned bust. Thank You for not choosing Texas Tommy, that might have kept Herman around a little longer, and would have continued Texas' record of bringing in 5 stars that somehow never managed to play good football or make it to the NFL

[Born Burnt 6177]

20 hours ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

I ran it in excel and everything else in the table is correct

[NoName 16351]

On 3/18/2024 at 8:50 AM, BigHorn'13 said:

Wow. That list is pretty damming of Bryce Foster. 

to be fair it looks like he has Hudson Card-sized hands. has to make his life pretty difficult at center

[BurntOrangeBlooded15 1566]

its all paywalled behind the link but that’d be interesting

[Js1 85297]

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

On 1/15/2024 at 7:56 PM, closetojumping said:

I do, all the time. It’s objectively less of a headache and when I’m slowed boarding a plane, it is inevitably some dickhead in front of me who is having app problems or forgot to have the phone unlocked or whatever, just stealing seconds off of everyone’s life around them. Check bags in, print boarding passes while doing it, tuck in back pocket, show to Clear or TSA, show to board plane, throw in trash, done. Substance over style and it wins. 

I was just reminded of this conversation while sitting in a long line at the entrance to Changi airport immigration because some jackass had an electronic boarding pass which wouldn’t scan. I smiled as he was directed back to the ticket counter.

[Newy25 7668]

21 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

I was just reminded of this conversation while sitting in a long line at the entrance to Changi airport immigration because some jackass had an electronic boarding pass which wouldn’t scan. I smiled as he was directed back to the ticket counter.

You screenshot your boarding pass like everyone else and never rely on the app. Rookie move. 

[Bevo 13570]

1 minute ago, Newy25 said:

You screenshot your boarding pass like everyone else and never rely on the app. Rookie move. 

Then what is the move where you leave your cell phone on the shuttle bus?

[Junior Bonner 6242]

21 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Then what is the move where you leave your cell phone on the shuttle bus?

A savvy veteran move, of course… 

[Da Fino 2776]

2 hours ago, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

its all paywalled behind the link but that’d be interesting

Dude did a really lame rumspringa. Honestly kind of crazy that the rules are such that he can do that. 

[Henry Hill 3156]

No offense…but it’s Iowa

[Mother mopar 3318]

You screenshot your boarding pass like everyone else and never rely on the app. Rookie move. 

Agree or just add it to your google wallet.

[Funk Doctor Spock 12182]

26 minutes ago, Henry Hill said:

No offense…but it’s Iowa

Those dudes know how to make elite linemen and TE's, so he may just be stupid. 

[campcrunk 2438]

On 3/18/2024 at 8:50 AM, BigHorn'13 said:

Wow. That list is pretty damming of Bryce Foster. 

Top 5 finish! Put it on the wall! 

[hornian 5210]

14 hours ago, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

its all paywalled behind the link but that’d be interesting

 

11 hours ago, Da Fino said:

Dude did a really lame rumspringa. Honestly kind of crazy that the rules are such that he can do that. 

Bru McCoy must be managing his NIL and portal activity. 

[Js1 85297]

12 hours ago, Spider2YBanana said:

Those dudes know how to make elite linemen and TE's, so he may just be stupid. 

Or smart.  He transferred to Iowa, forced them to self report a violation for tampering and then he turned around and went back to Bama. 

Sleeper agent. 

[Revolution512 1487]

14 hours ago, Henry Hill said:

No offense…but it’s Iowa

Could've sworn it was heaven

[Ricky's one-hitter 9084]

21 minutes ago, Revolution512 said:

Could've sworn it was heaven

[Viper 12105]

On 3/18/2024 at 7:30 AM, NoName said:

he couldn't beat out Seth McLaughlin at center last year, so probably not

 

Are these lists saying Houston had -1 "bad catches" by the QB? How do they have 14 bad snaps that include bad catches but 15 bad snaps without including bad catches?

[Gut Wagon 8065]

On 3/18/2024 at 11:07 AM, Thiefery said:

...his lil bro is a different story though.. but he shot up the rankings and was the #1 Center in the country (lol)

Too bad we missed on him. Could have rounded out our unholy trinity with Jeff Raulerson and Terrell Cuney. 

[Huckleberry 32850]

53 minutes ago, Viper said:

Are these lists saying Houston had -1 "bad catches" by the QB? How do they have 14 bad snaps that include bad catches but 15 bad snaps without including bad catches?

Maybe they had one superhuman QB catch, so that it was a botched snap by the center but did not negatively affect the play overall so was a successful exchange.

Or maybe that guy just messed up.

[Funk Doctor Spock 12182]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Or smart.  He transferred to Iowa, forced them to self report a violation for tampering and then he turned around and went back to Bama. 

Sleeper agent. 

Bond takes many forms. Even a gigantic African American 300lb lineman. No rookie move. 

[futureman 22444]

1 hour ago, Spider2YBanana said:

Bond takes many forms. Even a gigantic African American 300lb lineman. No rookie move. 

he’s a lot more than 300 lbs

[Henry Hill 3156]

23 hours ago, Spider2YBanana said:

Those dudes know how to make elite linemen and TE's, so he may just be stupid. 

Really thought the Iowa having no offense joke would have landed. 
 

[Thiefery 4995]

on OTF this morning.. Bobby was talking about the Proctor situation..where it looks he will be portaling back to Alabama next month.. He said he has a source that said don't be surprised if Caleb Downs does the same thing.  Said that Bama has gotten their NIL together, they were used to get players lower because of the Saban factor.  They understand it's not like that anymore, so they have people who stepped up.

Says tosu NIL is ok but it's not as good as some would think.

 

Lastly, he said if Caleb does return, there will have to be a new rule where you can portal back but you have to sit a year.

[RomaVicta 29902]

On 3/18/2024 at 10:47 AM, Bevo said:

So, here is an article on Alabama bust rates: https://www.rollbamaroll.com/2023/7/11/23789325/alabama-hasnt-won-a-national-championship-since-2020-are-recruiting-busts-to-blame : The article doesn't matter much but its point was that lower bust rates meant more championships. Well, Saban always recruited well but at times he took guys who were highly rated by the magazines but we as fans had questions about for one reason or another. I assume that the Bama staff had questions as well but they didn't get all the guys that they wanted. The point is that Alabama didn't develop players better some years than others. Instead, I would say that they recruited better players some years over other years.

 

I only browsed the article and responses. It seems the author is applying the usual lack of depth to his analysis typical of sportswriters. 

Only highly rated players can be busts.

Does his simple percentage analysis allow for the notion that your chances of having a bust with two top 75 players are less than than having 10?

Does it account for the fact that a highly ranked player will be more likely to at least start on a team with less overall talent thus making becoming a bust less likely? Players that might bust at Bama won't as likely bust at Ole Miss or Florida because their backups won't be as good.

Three stars can't, by definition, be busts. If their development to NFL players is used only as a positive, how does that impact a team that has a relatively much lower proportion of 3 stars?

As many have said or alluded to, imprecise ratings by sportswriting hacks, incomplete understanding by sportswriting hacks, and simplistic analysis by sportswriting hacks rarely produce a clear picture of anything.

[Bevo 13570]

17 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I only browsed the article and responses. It seems the author is applying the usual lack of depth to his analysis typical of sportswriters. 

Only highly rated players can be busts.

Does his simple percentage analysis allow for the notion that your chances of having a bust with two top 75 players are less than than having 10?

Does it account for the fact that a highly ranked player will be more likely to at least start on a team with less overall talent thus making becoming a bust less likely? Players that might bust at Bama won't as likely bust at Ole Miss or Florida because their backups won't be as good.

Three stars can't, by definition, be busts. If their development to NFL players is used only as a positive, how does that impact a team that has a relatively much lower proportion of 3 stars?

As many have said or alluded to, imprecise ratings by sportswriting hacks, incomplete understanding by sportswriting hacks, and simplistic analysis by sportswriting hacks rarely produce a clear picture of anything.

I agree with what you said. My question is still on the importance of development. From a thoughtful approach, it should be obvious that we recruit body types and athletes with the right attitude a lot more these days than 30 years ago - These players often come from the inner city and don't have the training that suburban players get. So, development should be more important these days. OTOH, from an observational point of view, teams have proven that if you recruit the best athletes, you are going to compete for championships. There are a few exceptions like A&M but mainly those exceptions were for obvious reasons, like recruiting shitheads and druggies and dumbasses (people with the wrong attitude) or being one hit wonders (recruiting top players for a year or two only) or recruiting heavy some positions while ignoring other positions. A&M did all of those things so it is no surprise that they failed. Plus, they are aggies so they were doomed to fail. Anyway, I think the problem with the thoughtful approach is that there are many decent coaches out there that can develop players to some extent. So, it is hard to differentiate schools that develop better than others. And a lot of the development that we observe is more emotional like keeping drugs and country club attitudes away from the program than the physical development of players, like learning the position and becoming better athletes.

Edited March 21 by Bevo

[MuellerHorn 4228]

48 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

on OTF this morning.. Bobby was talking about the Proctor situation..where it looks he will be portaling back to Alabama next month.. He said he has a source that said don't be surprised if Caleb Downs does the same thing.  Said that Bama has gotten their NIL together, they were used to get players lower because of the Saban factor.  They understand it's not like that anymore, so they have people who stepped up.

Says tosu NIL is ok but it's not as good as some would think.

 

Lastly, he said if Caleb does return, there will have to be a new rule where you can portal back but you have to sit a year.

I agree - there will have to be. It's essentially a tool to hold your current school hostage. If you can just transfer back, it also harms the new school. Something about this loophole must change.

[Burt Macklin 19020]

53 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

Lastly, he said if Caleb does return, there will have to be a new rule where you can portal back but you have to sit a year.

This is a great idea. The NCAA absolutely needs to pass another rule it can’t/wont enforce. That’ll fix it! 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4739]

18 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

This is a great idea. The NCAA absolutely needs to pass another rule it can’t/wont enforce. That’ll fix it! 

I think NCAA will enforce whatever the SEC and Big 10 want/allow them to enforce. Making transfers sit out a year absent a head coaching change or real family issue seems like a reasonable way to curb the rampant player poaching/transfers. Probably not a good thing for Texas since at the moment we are a net winner of the current landscape.

[Red Five 40847]

We are supposedly talking to Indiana DT Philip Blidi. No offer yet. 6'3" 295. My initial thought is that we already have a handful of these types on the roster. Including one we just brought in from Arizona. 

[Bodacious Bevo 3584]

38 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

I think NCAA will enforce whatever the SEC and Big 10 want/allow them to enforce. Making transfers sit out a year absent a head coaching change or real family issue seems like a reasonable way to curb the rampant player poaching/transfers. Probably not a good thing for Texas since at the moment we are a net winner of the current landscape.

I don't think that's up to the NCAA and conferences. Unlimited transfers are allowed because a court found they were in violation of antitrust laws. They'll have to find a way to do this legally before anything else. 

[Park Gothic 5016]

43 minutes ago, Red Five said:

We are supposedly talking to Indiana DT Philip Blidi. No offer yet. 6'3" 295. My initial thought is that we already have a handful of these types on the roster. Including one we just brought in from Arizona. 

Agreed, except that he actually seems worse than what we have on the roster. He was a rotational guy at Texas Tech before transferring to start at Indiana in 2023. He's from NJ so it's not like he wants to come home to Texas. 

Maybe he's cheap in terms of NIL and we think he's experienced depth. But frankly he doesn't seem worth the scholarship. 

[Getafix 28569]

 

So, in case we're interested in any Michigan DL ... the gist of the Michigan situation.  

 

 

 

 

FYI, Michigan's spring practice began Monday.

 

 

[Park Gothic 5016]

3 minutes ago, Getafix said:

 

So, in case we're interested in any Michigan DL ... the gist of the Michigan situation.  

 

 

 

 

FYI, Michigan's spring practice began Monday.

 

 

lol, what a shit show