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Cruz vs Allred - 2024

Pancho

By Pancho
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Hank Kingsley
Hank Kingsley

Texans watching Allred fuck Ted Cruz on the debate stage tonight. 

NorthLoop
NorthLoop

I was at a friends house watching the UT game and there were other "friends" there that were aggy waiting for our game to end. One of those transgender prisoner commercials came on - now mind you I wa

bolverk
bolverk

Hey, motherfucker, YOU repeatedly claim to have all kinds of connections in the TX GQP. It's not MY responsibility for YOUR party to put up someone who isn't a "walking piece of toxic human shit" agai

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19118

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, South Austin said:

Could be, but yes, there are lots like this guy, I imagine.

At one point I asked my daughter if her friend shared her dad’s political views, and she looked at me with an eye-rolling “hell no” shaking of the head. 

My kid says her friends call her lucky because I’m not a brainwashed dotard supporter like their parents. 

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The Dog

The Dog 43771

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, bolverk said:

I'd love to see some kind of historical comparisons, like 2022, 2020, 2018, etc., but check out Collin and Denton counties. 

image.thumb.png.5147f8bd551dcef1c17fb86dd8c4aeb2.png

Here's how Collin County voted since 2000 in presidential elections:

image.png.b36e42fd86fc727733eb37c2a9bcb69e.png

and Denton:

image.png.14908bfae6ef8a7645b0392993e939f4.png

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bolverk

bolverk 29360

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Here's how Collin County voted since 2000 in presidential elections:

image.png.b36e42fd86fc727733eb37c2a9bcb69e.png

and Denton:

image.png.14908bfae6ef8a7645b0392993e939f4.png

 

Yep, they're both getting pretty dang close. In 2020, we saw Williamson and Tarrant counties finally make the move to blue. I'm very anxious to see if Collin (I think it does) and Denton (less certain) do the same. I did some calculations a little while back and said that once Tarrant, Collin, and Denton are all firmly with the good guys, that's when Texas can legitimately be considered a swing state.

Here's how the DFW vote went in 2020:

image.thumb.png.e3df9dcb55a61bb79226aa8187b942a3.png

 

And this is how they changed from 2016 to 2020.

image.thumb.png.827e2161fe415db6b48ec71addfd8ca9.png

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Ted Lange

Ted Lange 15991

Posted
Posted

Well, now sounds like this is going to be held at the Dynamo stadium.   Probably a better-sized venue (22K seats vs 45K).   But people are going to be sweating to death, because late October is the new early September.  

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Js1

Js1 85056

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Well, now sounds like this is going to be held at the Dynamo stadium.   Probably a better-sized venue (22K seats vs 45K).   But people are going to be sweating to death, because late October is the new early September.  

Woof. Was gonna try to go for my last day in Houston, but not now 

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texastough

texastough 1128

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If you're holding a rally, isn't it kind of a good idea to let people know where it's going to be?

They probably want to wait until the latest possible moment for security reasons. With Beyonce on top of the existing Kamala enthusiasm she won't have trouble filling it on short notice.

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tx ind

tx ind 6996

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Posted

Watched Allred’s speech from last night again, he’s better at public speaking than I expected.  If he slows down and adds about 10% more polish/confidence the sky is the limit.  He had complete control of that place.

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14071

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I was at a friends house watching the UT game and there were other "friends" there that were aggy waiting for our game to end. One of those transgender prisoner commercials came on - now mind you I was pretty drunk at the moment. I stood up and yelled out "OH MAN THOSE TRANSGENDER PRISONERS! BIGGEST PROBLEM TEXAS HAS FACED SINCE SANTA ANNA RIGHT????" ... my wife is in the back mouthing "stopppp" ... aggy friends are just staring at me like the drunk asshole I was. 

 

didn't care. Stupidest fucking ad ever. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25426

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6 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

I was at a friends house watching the UT game and there were other "friends" there that were aggy waiting for our game to end. One of those transgender prisoner commercials came on - now mind you I was pretty drunk at the moment. I stood up and yelled out "OH MAN THOSE TRANSGENDER PRISONERS! BIGGEST PROBLEM TEXAS HAS FACED SINCE SANTA ANNA RIGHT????" ... my wife is in the back mouthing "stopppp" ... aggy friends are just staring at me like the drunk asshole I was. 

 

didn't care. Stupidest fucking ad ever. 

Do you hang out with my clients in NB? I hear that shit all day in the break room. I just walk on by and head to my cave.

The group think is if Harris wins hordes of Salvadorans are going to rush the border and bring the gay and transgender with them. Fucktards. I hate my job right now

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted

NY Times released a Cruz +4 poll this morning. Their cross tabs are screwed though. There are 2 large, fundamental errors: whites are under sampled and college is oversampled. They have a sample that is 55% white and 42% non-white. The 2020 electorate was 62.4% white the 2024 EV so far is 68% white. Their poll has 26% with a BA and 16% advanced degrees. Texas is actually 18 and 9% in those categories. 

There is also a large tactical issue. The people actually voting skew much older than their sample. NYT has 25% of the sample from seniors (65+). The actual EV is 37.2% from this group. The sample is 15% from the 18-29 cohort. Current EV is 8.5% young adults. 

This poll is describing an electorate, but it’s not the Texas electorate. It’s certainly nothing like what we are seeing this year. They will be wrong on race and education. Age might change as more votes come in but we are close to 40% of the total votes already cast. I don’t think that it can move enough to look like their sample. The remaining electorate would have to be <15% seniors citizens and >20% young adults for that to happen. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted

I want to hope that Cruz is in trouble but we always run into a blue mirage that disappears as you get closer to it.

More so-called mainstream Republicans (Abbott, Cornyn) always seem to out perform their polls but this will be the first and only time Cruz and Trump are both on the ballot together. While Texas is red, even many Republicans dislike both. Yes, people do vote while holding their nose but some just don't vote.

From a Texas perspective this is the perfect storm for a blue flip. Or the most perfect storm that a Texas Democrat can hope occurs. Anyway this is what I tell myself. I don't believe it though.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32685

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

NY Times released a Cruz +4 poll this morning. Their cross tabs are screwed though. There are 2 large, fundamental errors: whites are under sampled and college is oversampled. They have a sample that is 55% white and 42% non-white. The 2020 electorate was 62.4% white the 2024 EV so far is 68% white. Their poll has 26% with a BA and 16% advanced degrees. Texas is actually 18 and 9% in those categories. 

There is also a large tactical issue. The people actually voting skew much older than their sample. NYT has 25% of the sample from seniors (65+). The actual EV is 37.2% from this group. The sample is 15% from the 18-29 cohort. Current EV is 8.5% young adults. 

This poll is describing an electorate, but it’s not the Texas electorate. It’s certainly nothing like what we are seeing this year. They will be wrong on race and education. Age might change as more votes come in but we are close to 40% of the total votes already cast. I don’t think that it can move enough to look like their sample. The remaining electorate would have to be <15% seniors citizens and >20% young adults for that to happen. 

Why are you comparing EV 2024 to final electorate 2020? What does EV versus final electorate 2016 look like? Do white rural voters historically vote early in larger numbers (yes they do)? And why are you using EV electorate to date when it comes to age but using overall demographics when it comes to education? We know that those having college degrees are more consistent voters. 

To be clear I wouldn't bet a single cent that Cruz doesn't win by at least 5 points.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Why are you comparing EV 2024 to final electorate 2020? What does EV versus final electorate 2016 look like? Do white rural voters historically vote early in larger numbers (yes they do)? And why are you using EV electorate to date when it comes to age but using overall demographics when it comes to education? We know that those having college degrees are more consistent voters. 

To be clear I wouldn't bet a single cent that Cruz doesn't win by at least 5 points.

I can’t find educational attainment stats for registered voters so I used population data that was available. I understand your argument for higher voting propensity; I doubt it can double that group’s representation in an electorate skewing rural. 

I’m using 2020 final as a smell test for poll’s demographic breakdown. I think that is the best case scenario for the NYT getting close on their demographics. It looks implausible. I introduce the 2024 EV so I can see what the remaining votes would have to look like for the poll to be close to the 2024 final electorate. I see that I did not explicitly state my reasoning and I apologize for that oversight. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

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7 minutes ago, WBT said:

It will be interesting to see which of Trump or Cruz run farther behind the Rs in the generic statewide judge races.

October: Cruz has 45 (favorable) - 40 (unfavorable) polling in Texas. Republican approval for him is at 76%. UT Link

August: Trump is 49 (favor) -48 (unfavor) Republican approval for Trump is at 88%. UT Link

I added the month because it would be better to have the results on the same time frame. Also the percentages of both polls, including Unsure, are <>100%. I don't know what that means.

 

 

 

 

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aggie08

aggie08 21380

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16 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

October: Cruz has 45 (favorable) - 40 (unfavorable) polling in Texas. Republican approval for him is at 76%. UT Link

Jesus fuck. Well that explains why my drunken fuck Ted Cruz post in the A&M game thread went over like a sack of bricks. (Well, that and I stupidly made it a little CR by referencing trans kids.)

I figured that even the people that feel like they have to vote for him still hate his ass. Nope. Must be his impressive Twitter game.

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