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Cruz vs Allred - 2024

Pancho

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bolverk

bolverk 29415

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Putting this here instead of one of the other two threads because this piece discusses both candidates and is really about the race. It's not exactly hard-hitting journalism, but it's the most I've seen from the national press.

 

Ted Cruz Is Again Fighting for Political Survival in Texas
The fiery senator, who was nearly unseated in 2018, has been trying to rebrand himself in a close race against a Democratic congressman and former N.F.L. player, Colin Allred.

On a late summer afternoon, Colin Allred, the Democratic challenger to U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, mingled his way through a barbershop in a historically Black neighborhood of Houston.

As he did so, a barber confessed that he had never heard of Mr. Allred, a Dallas congressman and former N.F.L. linebacker, until he was told the candidate would be coming by the shop. Neither had his client.

“Everybody knows Ted,” said the barber, Christopher Williams. “He’s not giving nothing up. It’s going to be a fight, and I love a good fight.”

In recent weeks, the race for U.S. Senate in Texas has grown increasingly competitive, with negative ads appearing with every channel flip and public polls showing a contest within single digits. Mr. Cruz, who is running for a third term, has been leading, but he attracts less support than former President Donald J. Trump does.

So what may have seemed like a sure thing for Republicans in the Republican-dominated state has some party officials in Texas concerned.

“The current reality is that Texas is too close for comfort,” Matt Mackowiak, head of the Travis County Republican Party, said in a letter to state party leaders.

The race is on track to be one of the most expensive in state history. But among Democrats, it has still not generated anything like the fervor or attention of 2018, when another little-known congressman, Beto O’Rourke, barnstormed his way to nearly defeating Mr. Cruz.

Mr. O’Rourke’s near victory is still frequently mentioned by Texas Democrats, the what-could-have-been moment that, in other elections since, they have been chasing and failing to replicate. A Democrat has not won statewide in Texas in 30 years.

But the near defeat has fueled Mr. Cruz’s determination not to let Republicans get overconfident this time. He has been trying to pull off a difficult political trick for a politician whose name ID is nearly universal: to remake his firebrand persona into something more approachable.

“They’re going to tell you I am a horrible creature who devours kittens at sunrise, which is ridiculous,” Mr. Cruz told campaign volunteers earlier this year, joking about his image in the media months before Republicans began accusing migrants in Ohio of eating pets. “Everyone knows you eat kittens at night.”

[Ha ha, Ted. You're such a fucking prick.]

cont'd:

Spoiler

The senator’s campaign has worried that a close race down the stretch could invite new rounds of investment from Democrats, and that some middle-of-the-road Texas voters, unsatisfied with either Mr. Trump or his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, may nevertheless vote in the Senate race.

That has led to a big fight over voters in the middle. Both candidates have tried to claim the mantle of bipartisanship. Both have rolled out endorsements by members of the opposite party.

Liz Cheney, the former Republican representative from Wyoming, is backing Mr. Allred. Kim Ogg, the Democratic district attorney for Harris County, which includes Houston, has been vocal in her support for Mr. Cruz.

Mr. Allred has demonstrated an ability to raise money to bombard the airwaves with ads and a willingness to go on the attack against Mr. Cruz.

Perhaps never has a race for Senate included so many mentions of Cancún, Mexico, where Mr. Cruz went vacationing during a 2021 winter storm in Texas that left more than 200 people dead. Mr. Allred finds ways to bring it up whenever possible, including in an ad about Social Security and Medicare.

Mr. Allred, 41, played linebacker for the Tennessee Titans before becoming a lawyer. In 2018, he defeated a Republican incumbent in a close race to win his congressional seat in Dallas.

“Change can happen quickly in Texas,” Mr. Allred, who is Black, said in an interview in which he talked about the diversity of the state. “What we have to do in Texas is embrace who we actually are, which is that diversity and that complexity that comes with it. Instead of being afraid of it.”

A first debate in the race is scheduled for Oct. 15.

Like many Democrats in 2024, Mr. Allred has made reproductive rights a central part of his campaign. He has also stressed his work on local projects, like getting a veterans hospital for the Dallas area. And he has tried to separate his race from the presidential contest, endorsing Ms. Harris while mostly not talking about her as he campaigns.

But Mr. Allred remains far less known than Mr. Cruz, even among voters in historically Black areas like Houston’s Third and Fifth Wards. Mr. Allred will need high turnout in such areas, and among Democrats in the state’s growing suburbs, to win.

It has not always appeared to be forthcoming.

“I’m not really into voting this year,” said Michelle Morris, 66, a resident of the Fifth Ward. She said she had heard of Mr. Allred, describing him as “pretty honest and pretty decent,” but said she remained frustrated by other Democrats who she felt had not followed through on their promises.

Her concerns were not about abortion or the border but the lack of grocery stores or good services in her neighborhood.

The Cruz campaign still sees the race as a very close one.

In an interview, Mr. Cruz said that Republicans had learned from the narrow victory over Mr. O’Rourke in 2018 not to take anything for granted.

“It is easier now to convince people that there is a real threat,” he said.

Mr. Cruz, 53, rose to prominence as a partisan warrior, part of the insurgent Tea Party wave. But recently he has stressed his record of working with Democrats in the Senate on bills, including addressing explicit “deepfake” imagery and creating new bridges for commercial traffic to and from Mexico.

At the same time, Mr. Cruz, who is the son of a Cuban immigrant, also blamed Democrats for the surge in migrants at the border, which he called an “invasion” and a deliberate attempt to increase their partisan advantage.

“They see future Democrat voters,” Mr. Cruz said.

The border with Mexico, which runs 1,254 miles in Texas, is a big issue for the state’s voters, many of whom experience the surges in arrivals firsthand.

This month, Mr. Cruz helped spread the baseless idea that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, had been eating household pets, posting an image of cowering kittens.

Mr. Allred, for his part, has distanced himself from the Biden administration on immigration and has tried going on the attack, airing ads with border sheriffs and constables highlighting Mr. Cruz’s opposition to a bipartisan border deal this year.

In response, Mr. Cruz has resurfaced comments that Mr. Allred made during the Trump administration calling a border wall “racist.” Mr. Allred said his description had been taken out of context.

Mr. Allred has tried to focus instead on the effects of Texas’ total ban on abortion, which does not provide exceptions in cases of rape and incest. He supports a national law to restore the protections of Roe v. Wade. Mr. Cruz said the matter should be left to individual states.

“Questions like that are decided by the voters,” Mr. Cruz said.

Elsewhere, the Allred campaign has attacked Mr. Cruz for a deal he has with iHeartMedia, which hosts his thrice-weekly “Verdict With Ted Cruz” podcast. Though Mr. Cruz is not paid, iHeartMedia has transferred nearly $800,000 of what it said was “advertising sales revenue” to a super PAC supporting the senator’s re-election. (Candidates are limited by law from soliciting more than $5,000 for super PACs.)

Mr. Cruz said that the podcast was “integral to the job” of talking to voters.

The vastness of Texas, with around 18 million registered voters, makes reaching voters costly and time consuming. Both candidates plan to sprint around the state in the closing weeks.

During his visit to the Houston barbershop, Mr. Allred spoke with Mr. Williams, the barber, describing his modest upbringing by a single mother and his determination to fight hard in the election. Mr. Williams appeared to be won over.

“I wasn’t going to vote before y’all came,” Mr. Williams said to the candidate.

But Mr. Cruz, too, has attracted new supporters. Michael Manuel, a clothing store owner from Beaumont, said he became politically involved after the pandemic, when business closures and violent protests against the police drove him to support Mr. Trump.

At an event in Houston, Mr. Manuel displayed his support for Mr. Cruz with a large “C” on his shirt.

“I wasn’t a registered voter before 2021,” Mr. Manuel said. “I went from zero to 100.”

As Mr. Cruz spoke at the event, a protester began shouting over him about his support for Israel. The crowd quickly drowned out the protester, with some chanting “Ted! Ted! Ted!”

A similar scene played out at a rally for Mr. Allred a week earlier. As the candidate spoke, a protester began yelling about Israel’s actions in Gaza. Mr. Allred responded by leading the crowd in a chant.

“Hope! Hope! Hope!” the Democrats said together.

 

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Hank Kingsley
Hank Kingsley

Texans watching Allred fuck Ted Cruz on the debate stage tonight. 

NorthLoop
NorthLoop

I was at a friends house watching the UT game and there were other "friends" there that were aggy waiting for our game to end. One of those transgender prisoner commercials came on - now mind you I wa

bolverk
bolverk

Hey, motherfucker, YOU repeatedly claim to have all kinds of connections in the TX GQP. It's not MY responsibility for YOUR party to put up someone who isn't a "walking piece of toxic human shit" agai

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27445

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On 9/24/2024 at 4:20 PM, bolverk said:

I’m not really into voting this year,” said Michelle Morris, 66, a resident of the Fifth Ward. She said she had heard of Mr. Allred, describing him as “pretty honest and pretty decent,” but said she remained frustrated by other Democrats who she felt had not followed through on their promises.

This is why Texas is not already blue

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13417

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12 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

This is why Texas is not already blue

Some Texas Democrats need to be given a strong reason to vote. And it's not really that big of a deal to vote. Yes, you need an ID which honesty most people should have anyway. Then you need to find an hour during early voting. 

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softlynow

softlynow 1786

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1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

This is why Texas is not already blue

More generally, this shows why Dems everywhere struggle despite a clearly superior platform for a majority of voters. People who could even consider voting Dem want something done, their Pub-leaning counterparts just want liberal tears and/or simply fear something non-sensical.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104687

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Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

You get arrested for doing that in blue districts. 

You get arrested for doing it anywhere in the state:

Quote

87-year-old LULAC volunteer said AG Ken Paxton sent 9 officers to raid her home

Lidia Martinez has been a LULAC member for over 35 years and works to expand voter registration among seniors and veterans in South Texas, CBS News reported.

And remember, every single person who votes GQP in this state -- EVERY.  FUCKING.  ONE OF THEM. -- is not just okay with that, but wants MORE of it. 

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Js1

Js1 85141

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8 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

Reminds me of an article I read where a guy in El Paso said he voted once, for a democrat, and "nothing changed."  So obviously never vote again, I guess? WTF 

These are the people in the UK who already hate Labour because they haven’t undone a decade plus of Tory rule in 3 months. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45504

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4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Pathetic that Cruz can only run on stopping "boys in girl sports." 

Just saw this ad for the first time while watching my recording of the Miss St game. Holy shit. It’s an argument a five year old would make. 
 

“Boys in girl’s bathrooms!  Ewwww!!!!”

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Cousin Strawberry

Cousin Strawberry 1261

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7 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Just saw this ad for the first time while watching my recording of the Miss St game. Holy shit. It’s an argument a five year old would make. 
 

“Boys in girl’s bathrooms!  Ewwww!!!!”

Have you seen the one where a large black man with an Allred jersey is standing over a small, white girl in a cheerleader skirt, laying motionless on the ground like he is about to sexually assault her.  Very classy.

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1627

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Allred keeps running a series of YouTube ads that play before my videos saying the "polls are tied" and showing a 41% to 41% graphic.  Not sure what poll he's using but the polls are not tied. This race will not even be as close as the Beto result in 2018.    

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33850

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3 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Allred keeps running a series of YouTube ads that play before my videos saying the "polls are tied" and showing a 41% to 41% graphic.  Not sure what poll he's using but the polls are not tied. This race will not even be as close as the Beto result in 2018.    

I know this is gonna blow your mind, but from everything I've seen, yeah, inexplicably, it's a tie race right now

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Js1

Js1 85141

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10 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I know this is gonna blow your mind, but from everything I've seen, yeah, inexplicably, it's a tie race right now

I don't know if I'd call it a tie, but more like Cruz is ahead but well within the margin of error.  And he's campaigning like it too. 

Turnout is going to decide this.  If the polls are even a point or two off with likely Harris voters (POC, young voters) and the suburbs continue to shift left,  Cruz is sweating. Anything that dampens GOP turnout in the next 33 days could turn this race fast. 

But on the flipside, a polling error in Trump's favor by a point or two probably saves Cruz from a close race. 

He will underperform Trump - and it depends on what Trump's margin is.  4-5 point Trump victory? Cruz likely eeks it out.  2-3 point Trump victory?  Oh boy, this may take a while to get a call on Election Night, since Harris County tends to deliver their results from the precincts to the vote centers via flying through Siberia. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13417

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Chronicle article (free link) about the changing demographics of Texas voters. The focus is on the increasing population along I-35 and Harris county in contrast of the relative lack of growth elsewhere.

i haven’t seen an election analyst flat out say that it’s 50-50 for statewide elections yet but the combination of Cruz and Trump this year creates a perfect storm of blue hatred. I’m convinced that if the Beto-Cruz race had been in 2020 instead of 2018, Beto would have won. In 2018 Cruz had Abbott running for governor but not Trump which helped Cruz.

Looking forward to seeing the early vote totals by county and state total in a couple of weeks. Hope I’m wrong but I don’t see how Allred retains the Beto vote and finds the 215k votes that Beto lost by. 

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bolverk

bolverk 29415

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Chronicle article (free link) about the changing demographics of Texas voters. The focus is on the increasing population along I-35 and Harris county in contrast of the relative lack of growth elsewhere.

i haven’t seen an election analyst flat out say that it’s 50-50 for statewide elections yet but the combination of Cruz and Trump this year creates a perfect storm of blue hatred. I’m convinced that if the Beto-Cruz race had been in 2020 instead of 2018, Beto would have won. In 2018 Cruz had Abbott running for governor but not Trump which helped Cruz.

Looking forward to seeing the early vote totals by county and state total in a couple of weeks. Hope I’m wrong but I don’t see how Allred retains the Beto vote and finds the 215k votes that Beto lost by. 

These two paragraphs are great news to read since we've historically had such low voter participation numbers:

The state’s voter registration rolls are expanding at a quicker pace than other fast-growing southern states like Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. And they're surpassing the state’s population growth, a sign that more than just new Texans are signing up to vote.

*****

While transplants from other states make up a good portion of that rise, voter advocacy groups say it is also a product of their work in places like Houston and San Antonio to find and register Texans who don't typically participate in elections. Also fueling the rise is the state's booming youth population coming of voting age. Many high schools have programs to help sign up new voters and people can also register when getting a driver's license.

 

Late edit to add that I had no idea Kinzinger had moved to Texas and, on top of that, had said he "would love to run against Ted Cruz."

Edited by bolverk
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89465

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5 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm under no illusions about how Texas votes, but it would be nice to only lose by 2 instead of 4-6 this time.

It would be nice if that happened and it panicked the Republicans into moving more towards the center instead of Hand Maid's Tale.

But we know that if they barely win, it'll be a sign they need to go into Taliban territory.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37533

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2 hours ago, bolverk said:

Great. So now traitor Ted's gonna fuck up our shot at taking down the Limeys, too.

Christ, we'd have lost the Revolution if Ted had been there.  I think he was still in Canada fucking an otter at that point.  Guy is at least 600 years old.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13417

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It would be nice if that happened and it panicked the Republicans into moving more towards the center instead of Hand Maid's Tale.

But we know that if they barely win, it'll be a sign they need to go into Taliban territory.

You’re right in that the Texas GOP could probably shift a few degrees to the left and they could corner 60% of the vote. The far far right ain’t going to vote for anyone else. Instead of a smart political shift they will try to take the vote away from large counties.

if they also fear that the governor or lt governor could be a Democrat, look for them to curb the powers of those offices. If Abbott thought a Dem would beat him, he would sign a law on the way out making the role ceremonial and add a term limit of 1.

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13116

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Posted (edited)
On 10/2/2024 at 10:10 PM, 0xdeadbeef said:

Allred keeps running a series of YouTube ads that play before my videos saying the "polls are tied" and showing a 41% to 41% graphic.  Not sure what poll he's using but the polls are not tied. This race will not even be as close as the Beto result in 2018.    

I mean there are few outlier polls that show it tied and even one where he has a slight lead, I have seen those polls and whenever I see one like that I know Collin is going to mention it. So it makes sense for him to act like those outliers are representative of most polling, but yeah a tad misleading.

I donated to Allred's campaign and would love for him to win and all but yeah. He will lose by 4 or 5 points sadly. If he only loses by 2 or 3 I will be very gruntled.

Still, got to keep chipping away at Republican power in Texas. Every percent counts.

Edited by Valmy77
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tx ind

tx ind 7004

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On 10/2/2024 at 10:10 PM, 0xdeadbeef said:

Allred keeps running a series of YouTube ads that play before my videos saying the "polls are tied" and showing a 41% to 41% graphic.  Not sure what poll he's using but the polls are not tied. This race will not even be as close as the Beto result in 2018.    

I've seen a similar ad from all kinds of Dems with the same charts, they're just trying to drum up support

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Satchel

Satchel 6908

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On 10/3/2024 at 5:30 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You’re right in that the Texas GOP could probably shift a few degrees to the left and they could corner 60% of the vote. The far far right ain’t going to vote for anyone else. Instead of a smart political shift they will try to take the vote away from large counties.

if they also fear that the governor or lt governor could be a Democrat, look for them to curb the powers of those offices. If Abbott thought a Dem would beat him, he would sign a law on the way out making the role ceremonial and add a term limit of 1.

Republicans in Texas choose to believe because we are essentially a non voting state, their stronghold on statewide offices is an endorsement of their failed leadership. It is not. It is proof of Texas’ lack of voter engagement.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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Take 2018 results. 215k difference.

65k Cruz voters died from old age and covid.  150k difference.

50k suburban 2018 Cruz women vote Allred because of Roe overturned.  50k difference.

25k new black voters turn out for Allred.  25k difference.

50k Beto latinos stay home.  75k difference. lol.

25k anti-Trump voters turn out for Allred. 50k difference.

25k new gen z voters turn out for Allred.  25k difference.

 

Allred isn’t going to win.  But there’s a version of this where the shit is really really fucking close.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9838

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Fundraising emails are hilarious.

"Oh no, we're not going to hit our totally arbitrarily-picked goal. If Allred loses this will be the reason why."

Meanwhile in reality

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/10/08/texas-senate-colin-allred-ted-cruz-fundraising/

Quote

Colin Allred raises $30 million in third quarter of 2024, outpacing Ted Cruz

 

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17576

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2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Fundraising emails are hilarious.

"Oh no, we're not going to hit our totally arbitrarily-picked goal. If Allred loses this will be the reason why."

Meanwhile in reality

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/10/08/texas-senate-colin-allred-ted-cruz-fundraising/

 

I was at a fundraiser for Allred on Monday.  I was chuckling with his handler about the magnitude of texts/emails I get from their campaign.  She laughed, but said, "that's because it works."  Evidently they're turning most of that directly into ad buys in these final days.  Let's see how it goes. 

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9838

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3 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

I was at a fundraiser for Allred on Monday.  I was chuckling with his handler about the magnitude of texts/emails I get from their campaign.  She laughed, but said, "that's because it works."  Evidently they're turning most of that directly into ad buys in these final days.  Let's see how it goes. 

Yeah I mean I figure they write emails that way for a reason. I'm just not the guy it would work on, and it amuses me.

If his margin is in Beto territory that's an SEC quality loss.

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