2020 Democratic Nominee

[JimmyJames 12,271]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s an impossible question to answer because there is no Bernie vs Trump model that includes the a six month GOP/Kremlin campaign against Bernie. 

I’m not asking you to prove it, I’m just asking what state you THINK Bernie loses that Hillary won and whether you think Bernie loses Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I’m not asking you to prove it, I’m just asking what state you THINK Bernie loses that Hillary won and whether you think Bernie loses Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania 

I’m saying I don’t know. Bernie might have beaten Trump.  He might not have either.  It’s impossible for me to guess.  

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Alabama is likely a loss unless the republicans serve up another loon, which is certainly possible.

Check out the 2020 Senate thread.

Tommy Tuberville is looking into running with Sean Spicer’s help.

If there’s anything Gumps hate more than Democrats it’s Tommy Fucking Tuberville.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Also, the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump in 2020 is Beto IMO...mostly because he puts Texas in play and he’s not going to run off the Biden voters. 

ETA: also the coveted midwestern suburban white moms. Yowza! 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[JimmyJames 12,271]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Also, the candidate with best chance to beat Trump in 2020 is Beto IMO...mostly because he puts Texas in play and he’s not going to run off the Biden voters. 

You might be right. If the republicans lose Texas it’s game over and they know it. 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

Just now, bad_teammate said:

Agreed.

How do we know who that is?

Polling X candidate versus trump, especially in swing states, but overall polling tells the tale anyway. 

Obviously the farther along we get into that the more relevant it becomes.

Bernie always polled better versus trump than Hillary did. Which is why I supported him in the primary in 2016.  Bernie would have won against trump. He doesn’t lose Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to trump. Hillary did and it cost the dems the election, and here we are. 

[Message Board User 12,395]

1 hour ago, EuroHorn said:

Bernie nomination will either give Trump four more years or guarantee an independent in the White House 

Probably this.  Bernie is a problem for the Democrats, and he's not even a Democrat.

[Message Board User 12,395]

19 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Also, the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump in 2020 is Beto IMO...mostly because he puts Texas in play and he’s not going to run off the Biden voters. 

ETA: also the coveted midwestern suburban white moms. Yowza! 

Beto also is the best candidate period (regardless of target demographics) and has more charisma and energy than the other dozen or so candidates combined.

[bad_teammate 13,195]

53 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Well, out-of-state would have to care.  If I get 33% from Texas to cover my $10k in tuition, why can't I take that same dollar amount to California?  

The states fund their universities. I don't follow what you're saying here. You wouldn't be getting a check from the State of Texas to take to UC-Berkeley.

45 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 If Bernie was the dem nominee in 2016 the republicans would have gone on an all out jihad against him.

Unlike all the Dems the Republicans are very chill about. lok ok bud

Quote

Also, the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump in 2020 is Beto IMO...mostly because he puts Texas in play and he’s not going to run off the Biden voters. 

Who are "the Biden voters" that Beto has in-roads with?

[Guest Lobo]

Say my tuition for an in-state school in my state is $10,000.  Bernie's plan has $6,667 coming from the Federal Government and $3,333 coming fro the state of Texas for me to attend Sul Ross State.  Right?  

What if I want to go to UC-Berkeley instead.  Fed contribution remains 2/3rds but does the remaining delta come from California or Texas?  Or neither?  In which case, I don't understand how it's "Free College"?  

Edited April 7, 2019 by Lobo

[bad_teammate 13,195]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Say my tuition for an in-state school in my state is $10,000.  Bernie's plan has $6,667 coming from the Federal Government and $3,333 coming fro the state of Texas for me to attend Sul Ross State.  Right?  

That's how I read the summary I posted, yes.

If someone sees it differently I'd like to hear.

Quote

What if I want to go to UC-Berkeley instead.  Fed contribution remains 2/3rds but does the remaining delta come from California or Texas?  Or neither?  In which case, I don't understand how it's "Free College"?  

I assume California, based on my reading.

[Guest Lobo]

And would California pay what it costs for a Californian to attend UC or what it costs for me, as a Texas citizen, to attend UC?  

[atomheartbevo 89,670]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

Probably this.  Bernie is a problem for the Democrats, and he's not even a Democrat.

Bernie isn't a problem, as long as after he loses the primary, his supporters show up and vote D in November.

[Message Board User 12,395]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Bernie isn't a problem, as long as after he loses the primary, his supporters show up and vote D in November.

Do you think they will?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Let’s see Bernie beat that!

Edited April 7, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[bad_teammate 13,195]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Bernie isn't a problem, as long as after he loses the primary, his supporters show up and vote D in November.

Bernie's voters will, yet again, do a better job voting for D's than Hillary's 2008 crew. Just like happened in 2016.

[atomheartbevo 89,670]

16 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Bernie's voters will, yet again, do a better job voting for D's than Hillary's 2008 crew. Just like happened in 2016.

I remember the Hilldawg voters jumping on the McCain Train.  That was nuts.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26,462]

Bernie's voters will, yet again, do a better job voting for D's than Hillary's 2008 crew. Just like happened in 2016.

Yeah the PUMAs were the worst

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Bernie's voters will, yet again, do a better job voting for D's than Hillary's 2008 crew. Just like happened in 2016.

Neglecting of course that Bernie primary voters put Trump over the top in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[Js1 85,338]

 

[bad_teammate 13,195]

9 hours ago, RayDog said:

Neglecting of course that Bernie primary voters put Trump over the top in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Bullshit.

8-12% switch is right in line with historical norms. McCain, for instance, got 10% of all self-identified Dems/liberals. (source)

13% (at least) of Trump voters in 2016 had voted for Obama in 2012 (source)

Something to notice: Black turnout was down 20% in 2016 in Wisconsin. (source)

She made zero effort to appeal to the black community there or basically anywhere else. She offered them nothing. She didn't even show up physically in Wisconsin.

Part of being a winner and winning these races is not relying on 100% predictability in voters. If your campaign is so shitty that you have to rely on higher-than-historically-precedented loyalty from every single slice of your base then your campaign sucks and you are responsible for your own loss. Which Hillary is.

Hillary Clinton is what cost Hillary Clinton those states.

If you care about winning in 2020 you need to understand why she lost and how we can avoid making the same mistakes again.

Edited April 7, 2019 by bad_teammate

[Brisketexan 105,142]

If you care about winning in 2020 you need to understand why she lost and how we can avoid making the same mistakes again.

Maybe you didn’t get the memo, but even mentioning possible missteps of the Hillary campaign is horrible, misogynist, and results in you being CANCELLED.

Single-minded Hillary supporters out front, who are still a sizable dem bloc, shoulda told ya.

[Brothahorn 10,087]

On 4/6/2019 at 9:44 AM, Incredulity said:

I don’t think any R is going to endorse or openly campaign for Biden.

I also don’t think Biden can get the nomination.  If he does I literally expect a few Bernie Bros. to self immolate in the street like that Vietnamese Buddhist monk.

They definitely will not openly support him during the primary. But I could see the establishment supporting Joe in the general. Especially financially.

Pretty sure old man Bush voted for Clinton in 2016. Plus we know how Meghan and Mittens fell about Trump.

As for the establishment dems, they definitely want Biden. And we all know what the establishment wants it gets(Hillary) by any means necessary.

Edited April 7, 2019 by Brothahorn

[bad_teammate 13,195]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Maybe you didn’t get the memo, but even mentioning possible missteps of the Hillary campaign is horrible, misogynist, and results in you being CANCELLED.

Single-minded Hillary supporters out front, who are still a sizable dem bloc, shoulda told ya.

 

[bad_teammate 13,195]

Hugo, we've found your candidate.

 

[Patrick Bateman 3,914]

This is another campaign in early trouble.  Need dat paper.

 

[Brothahorn 10,087]

This is another campaign in early trouble.  Need dat paper.
 

Outside of being a minority, I am curious as to what Corey was thinking. He had to know this was a bad idea.

[Patrick Bateman 3,914]

Just now, Brothahorn said:

 

Outside of being a minority, I am curious as to what Corey was thinking. He had to know this was a bad idea.

 

I think there are more than several candidates running to increase their name recognition and/or visibility to expand their options going forward.  Many of them just hope to get to the debates where they could possibly impress a broader audience.  They may hold out a small flicker of hope that something goes viral like Beto's response to NFL kneeling but most know it isn't about this election for them.  Booker probably falls into this category.

[maninblack 7,974]

I would think almost All D's are going to use this to help bring out the youth vote.
 
 

[mdmost 43,001]

Maybe Booker thought he could parlay the Kavanaugh hearings into something bigger. He seems like the first one out.

[Dropout 355]

2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

 

That’s pretty good. Watched 2x. Will watch again.

[henrygandorf 29,191]

3 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Hugo, we've found your candidate.

 

that was fucking awesome.

[Hank Kingsley 20,941]

Small sample size and polls are pretty meaningless right now, but Warren has got to start creating some momentum soon. 

 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Hank Kingsley

[Patrick Bateman 3,914]

Warren, in her own state, can't get any traction.  She seems like a good public servant but maybe this whole President thing isn't gonna be her bag.  Still hope there is a significant place for her at the table going forward as she supports and fights for more accountability going forward.  

[tantric superman 4,667]

19 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Small sample size and polls are pretty meaningless right now, but Warren has got to start creating some momentum soon. 

Will be interesting.  My gut, which is almost always wrong, tells me that this is as good as it gets for Bernie and JoeB.  I think Warren will move up a bit as they decline.

[bad_teammate 13,195]

This isn't (just) about dunking on Hillary, but a clear-eyed analysis of what happened. We have to know how to win. I'll even avoid quoting her name in the future and replace it with "CANDIDATE" to make it clear that it isn't about continue to attack the person.

There were warning signs.

This is from November 1, 2016. A week before voting day.

---------------------

CANDIDATE has a black voter problem in the nation’s biggest battleground state.

After the first full weekend of in-person early voting ended Sunday, African-American turnout failed to meet expectations — or historic precedent — leaving top Democrats and activists fuming or worried that CANDIDATE’s campaign isn’t living up to the hype in Florida.

“They’re not doing enough in the black community. I have been screaming for months about this and nothing changed and now look what’s happening,” said Democratic U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, who represents one of South Florida’s largest African-American communities.

Hastings said he told CANDIDATE aide John Podesta on a conference call last week that “you need to plus-up the spending in the African-American community and get out the vote.” Hastings said he was told someone would get back to him. “Nobody did,” he said.

African-Americans traditionally dominate early in-person voting. But they didn’t show in force this weekend. And Hastings said he wasn’t surprised. After Sunday night’s polls closed, black voters accounted for 16 percent of the in-person early vote ballots cast. And that included five previous days of in-person early voting.

But in 2012, in just two days of in-person early voting, blacks cast 25 percent of those early ballots, according to Dan Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who published some of the early voting data on his must-read Election Smith blog.

---------------------

Tactics.

Strategy.

[tantric superman 4,667]

I was wondering when we'd start talking about Booker.

[bad_teammate 13,195]

Iowa and NH are fine, but we really need to see who gets the black vote genuinely excited

We cannot win this shit without them. We can't ignore them. It's depressing that we let that languish in 2016.

[henrygandorf 29,191]

24 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Iowa and NH are fine, but we really need to see who gets the black vote genuinely excited

We cannot win this shit without them. We can't ignore them. It's depressing that we let that languish in 2016.

there was this great assumption that all black people and all women who voted for obama would vote for hrc.

narrator: they didn't.

[atomheartbevo 89,670]

1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Warren, in her own state, can't get any traction.  She seems like a good public servant but maybe this whole President thing isn't gonna be her bag.  Still hope there is a significant place for her at the table going forward as she supports and fights for more accountability going forward.  

I would like her to remain in Congress, in a Dem Majority.  I think she can do more.  

[maninblack 7,974]

Hugo announced his candidacy

 

 

[RayDog 682]

10 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Warren, in her own state, can't get any traction.  She seems like a good public servant but maybe this whole President thing isn't gonna be her bag.  Still hope there is a significant place for her at the table going forward as she supports and fights for more accountability going forward.  

Warren has to be the top vp candidate for any man who gets the nomination.

[bad_teammate 13,195]

 

[horncyclist 1,387]

Warren has to be the top vp candidate for any man who gets the nomination.

Liberal not-evil Dick Cheney. I'm sold. I want a Beto-Warren ticket.

[Hank Kingsley 20,941]

This is pretty frustrating to watch in real time. 

If anything, she's making Pete's point for him. 

Warren has great policies, but that's about it at the moment. Unfortunately based on polling or momentum, she's not doing very well right now.

Buttigieg has stressed promoting values first (then eventually getting into policy specifics) and he's had a huge surge in popularity in less than a month. 

Maybe Ds should start listening to Pete? So far his strategy is proving to be the better option. 

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by Hank Kingsley

[406W30th 1,111]

5 hours ago, RayDog said:

Warren has to be the top vp candidate for any man who gets the nomination.

Don't necessarily disagree, but I think it would be a monumental waste of her talents.  

She brings a lot to the ticket – experience, policy wonk, bold progressive ideas, she's a woman, etc – but I would prefer her as a vocal senator in a Dem majority, as someone else posted upthread.

[RayDog 682]

13 minutes ago, 406W30th said:

Don't necessarily disagree, but I think it would be a monumental waste of her talents.  

She brings a lot to the ticket – experience, policy wonk, bold progressive ideas, she's a woman, etc – but I would prefer her as a vocal senator in a Dem majority, as someone else posted upthread.

I agree that her talents are better utilized in the senate. I think the same of Bernie.

If i were to be the democratic nominee i would pick Warren over Harris, Klobachar, Gillibrand or Gabbard.

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by RayDog

[kevwun 15,788]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This is pretty frustrating to watch in real time. 

If anything, she's making Pete's point for him. 

Warren has great policies, but that's about it at the moment. Unfortunately based on polling or momentum, she's not doing very well right now.

Buttigieg has stressed promoting values first (then eventually getting into policy specifics) and he's had a huge surge in popularity in less than a month. 

Maybe Ds should start listening to Pete? So far his strategy is proving to be the better option. 

 

As best I can tell, Pete is the only D candidate who is gaining momentum.  I think it's because you only have to listen to him talk once to realize he has it.  It's doesn't take much for him to convert people in to supporters.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Unfortunately based on polling or momentum, she's not doing very well right now.

Warren's campaign strategy is unorthodox and isn't about driving the poll of the day to her cause.  Her game-plan from the beginning has been about a slow sustained grassroots effort.  She jumped in the race early so she could drive the policy discussions in the media throughout the campaign.  She knows this is a marathon and not a sprint.  While she's more likely not to get the nomination, she's shaping the conversation on policy within the democratic primary.  That has value. 

People assigning too much value to polls and those polls influencing their opinions of candidates and their policies is a big problem, especially this early in the game.  

[Hank Kingsley 20,941]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Warren's campaign strategy is unorthodox and isn't about driving the poll of the day to her cause.  Her game-plan from the beginning has been about a slow sustained grassroots effort.  She jumped in the race early so she could drive the policy discussions in the media throughout the campaign.  She knows this is a marathon and not a sprint.  While she's more likely not to get the nomination, she's shaping the conversation on policy within the democratic primary.  That has value. 

 

I absolutely agree. I love Elizabeth Warren. But her goal is win the Presidency, and I don't think her campaign strategy so far is working. 

She should be great in the debates and obviously there's plenty of time.