2020 Democratic Nominee

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

[Js1 85110]

I don't believe those numbers for a single second.

BUT if Trump is winning Texas by less than his 2016 margin (+9), he's going to lose nationally - bigly.  

Granted, some of that would siphon off to third party votes, but if a Democrat gets 46%+ in Texas in 2020, holy shit, Trump is losing the upper Midwest, Georgia, NC, AZ and Florida too. 

[EuroHorn 3204]

With those polls, no way Trump gets a second term...

Edited April 29, 2019 by EuroHorn

[bad_teammate 13132]

That's among Texas Democrats, right? lol

[Bama Chick 28596]

Fundraising numbers for Democratic candidates from Texas donors -

The above graph is from Emerson.

These results are from Change Research.



Full numbers (screenshot cut off Inslee and Ryan but they’re both at 0%)



We all know Emerson has had issues and I don’t know how accurate Change Research has been in the past.

But my takeaway is the reports of Beto’s demise seem to be premature.

[bad_teammate 13132]

"How do we come up with an alternative?" - Literal bankers scared of Sanders and Warren

Wall Street Dems Are Freaking Out

Quote

“There’s tremendous fear,” said one banker who was there. The candidates who had long cultivated relationships with Wall Street — such as Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand — were struggling to gain traction and had grown more hostile to finance as their party had, too. Joe Biden, leading in early polls, had a comforting history in the Obama White House and a reputation as an Establishment Democrat but had never, until a few months ago, maintained any meaningful relationship with Wall Street, hadn’t even announced his candidacy yet, and struck many bankers as a dubious bet to beat Donald Trump. Nearly everyone else in the field, the financiers felt, was being pulled leftward by Bernie Sanders (the preposterously well-funded contender they considered too crazy to even imagine in the White House) and Elizabeth Warren (less crazy, Democrats on Wall Street think, and way more competent). “She would torture them,” one banker told me. “Warren strikes fear in their hearts,” explained a New York executive close to banking leaders from both parties — so much fear that such investors often speak of the U.S. senator from Massachusetts, a former law professor and consumer advocate, as a co-front-runner with Sanders. “How do we come up with an alternative?” asked one person at the dinner.

There were a few options, none perfect. Beto O’Rourke had recently launched his campaign, and his congressional record was essentially a centrist-shaped blank slate. Pete Buttigieg was a McKinsey alum who came from the Rust Belt but talked like a Silicon Valley exec or an Obama Treasury official, but no one, yet, took him seriously.

Kamala Harris was a favorite of many in the room. The U.S. senator from California now describes herself as a populist and highlighted a past confrontation with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon over foreclosures in her pre-campaign book, but in 2012, as California’s attorney general, she passed on prosecuting OneWest and its CEO, Steven Mnuchin. In this cycle, she has been the Democrat perhaps most active in seeking Wall Street money (Citi vice-chairman Ray McGuire and Pine Street partner Brian Mathis are helping with her Wall Street outreach, and she recently headlined a fund-raiser hosted by LionTree CEO Aryeh Bourkoff) and occasionally its advice (BlackRock’s Michael Pyle, an Obama-administration alum, is advising her on economics). “People are generally in search of a candidate who has the right set of views, has the right character, but also can win,” Rattner told me later. “Right now, it is very hard to see who checks all three boxes.”

Harris, Biden, and Buttigieg will get the most love from Wall Street among the majors.

Hook me up to an IV drip of this and let me die happy.

Quote

“It’s kind of stunning how a bunch of these people running for president haven’t gotten ahold of [a list of top past contributors] and said, ‘What can I do to get this person?’ ” fumed a hedge-fund honcho out of the loop for the first time in two decades. “It’s sort of basic political IQ.”

“Everyone wants to seem relevant,” one prominent investor told me. But for the first time he or any of his friends could remember, “we’re just not fucking relevant. We’re not that big of a deal anymore. None of us!”

“A lot of the donor community is worried about losing their presidential perks and ambassadorial gigs to baristas,” said veteran New York Democratic fund-raiser Robert Zimmerman. “It’s long overdue.”

 

Edited April 29, 2019 by bad_teammate

[Bama Chick 28596]

Biden and Pete I can see, but Harris?

What’s her history with Wall Street/big banks/finance etc?

I haven’t heard that leveled at her before.

[bad_teammate 13132]

2 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Biden and Pete I can see, but Harris?

What’s her history with Wall Street/big banks/finance etc?

I haven’t heard that leveled at her before.

In this cycle, she has been the Democrat perhaps most active in seeking Wall Street money (Citi vice-chairman Ray McGuire and Pine Street partner Brian Mathis are helping with her Wall Street outreach, and she recently headlined a fund-raiser hosted by LionTree CEO Aryeh Bourkoff) and occasionally its advice (BlackRock’s Michael Pyle, an Obama-administration alum, is advising her on economics)

She doesn't have the same history that Biden does, but she's trying.

Some of the also-rans are trying (Gillibrand, etc...) but they're not worth thinking about right now.

[bad_teammate 13132]

God, this article is the best

But on a recent morning in Manhattan, a handful of Wall Street’s Democratic power brokers got to chatting after a breakfast fund-raiser for a congressman. The topic was unavoidable: In recent weeks, a new name had entered the fold. Now, as the donors spoke, more news trickled out. A growing array of influential bundlers in the finance world had made their choice to support the new entrant, even though many had planned to stay neutral far longer. Hedge-fund manager Orin Kramer, for one, was onboard after meeting the candidate in person a few weeks earlier. David Jacobson, the onetime ambassador to Canada who is now a BMO vice-chairman — and who helped organize the auditions in February — was too. And Steve Elmendorf, a D.C. lobbyist who has worked closely with Wall Street leaders for years, made his choice. He even changed the background of his Facebook page to match the moment: It’s now a wide shot of a large crowd looking up at a stage with a massive PETE 2020 sign staring back.

[tucker 238]

42 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

"How do we come up with an alternative?" - Literal bankers scared of Sanders and Warren

Wall Street Dems Are Freaking Out

Harris, Biden, and Buttigieg will get the most love from Wall Street among the majors.

Hook me up to an IV drip of this and let me die happy.

 

This should be a campaign ad for Warren

[bad_teammate 13132]

Just now, tucker said:

This should be a campaign ad for Warren

Bernie is fundraising hard off of this and Warren needs to do the same, yes.

An emerging narrative of those two as clean with everyone else wallowing in the Wall Street/lobbyist mud will go very well for them. A very underrated part of Trump's popular appeal was his, "I can't be bought" persona.

[Hank Scorpio 17723]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

"How do we come up with an alternative?" - Literal bankers scared of Sanders and Warren

Wall Street Dems Are Freaking Out

Harris, Biden, and Buttigieg will get the most love from Wall Street among the majors.

Hook me up to an IV drip of this and let me die happy.

 

[bad_teammate 13132]

A small handful of billionaires/mega-millionaires = the normal way of things

600+k thousand individual donors = "the fringe"

[troph 24562]

Bernie and Warren have fringe ideas, and to say otherwise just isn't accurate.  THAT SAID, both mitgate that with the anti-wall street sentiment.  if they were less socialistic (not meant as an insult, only a descriptor) on taxes and student loans I'd be all in on Warren.  I think eliminating Wall Street influence is paramount to taking our government back.  It does not mean we have to go as far on the offense as much as we need to defensively eliminate the Wall Street perks.  Platforms with reasonable corporate taxes, reasonably higher marginal rates on the uber-wealthy, modest but meaningful student loan system reform, consumer protection/jail time for wall street crooks, meaningful criminal justice reform, and Medicare for All or a single payer system of any reasonable kind would win me over.

[henrygandorf 29177]

16 minutes ago, troph said:

Bernie and Warren have fringe ideas, and to say otherwise just isn't accurate.  THAT SAID, both mitgate that with the anti-wall street sentiment.  if they were less socialistic (not meant as an insult, only a descriptor) on taxes and student loans I'd be all in on Warren.  I think eliminating Wall Street influence is paramount to taking our government back.  It does not mean we have to go as far on the offense as much as we need to defensively eliminate the Wall Street perks.  Platforms with reasonable corporate taxes, reasonably higher marginal rates on the uber-wealthy, modest but meaningful student loan system reform, consumer protection/jail time for wall street crooks, meaningful criminal justice reform, and Medicare for All or a single payer system of any reasonable kind would win me over.

while i agree in principle with what you're saying, i would also agree with the radical versions of reform some are suggesting for these issues - while they are campaigning.

a candidate should propose the radical version so that the voters absolutely know where they stand on certain issues that are important to them.  then once elected, the actual reform lands somewhere in the middle.  but better to start off on the far end and compromise (while making a point) than to support moderate change and have it blow over and disappear in favor of other "more important" legislation you've prioritized.

i don't think any reasonable voter (i know there aren't many left) thinks that radical proposals are just going to magically turn into law during the first 100 days of our new president.

[bad_teammate 13132]

18 minutes ago, troph said:

Bernie and Warren have fringe ideas, and to say otherwise just isn't accurate.

Like what, specifically?

In the grand scheme political thought, Bernie is a center-left candidate. A truly fringe idea would be something like nationalization of all industry with a centrally planned economy.

Bernie's planks:
- Tuition-free public college for all
- Medicare for All
- Universal suffrage
- Universal Pre-K
- $15/hr minimum wage

This isn't about instituting a socialist economy; it's just an expansion of the capitalist welfare state.

[Js1 85110]

Free college tuitions - 60% support

M4A - 70% support

$15 minimum wage - 55% support

FrInGe IdEaS

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

In case you haven't noticed being anti-status quo = far left.

Warren is radical because she's so openly opposed to the corruption that has become the status quo and she has designs to correct it. 

This is sold as "being far left" by those that what to keep things the way they are. 

Edited April 29, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[bad_teammate 13132]

Favorite thing of the day:

#RESISTANCE Twitter flipping out upon realizing that voting registration data is public and that political campaigns use that information.

Nothing says, "I've never actively participated in the political process beyond voting" like freaking out about the BERN app.

Very normal brains doing very normal things.

And my favorite Twitter warrior genre...

 

[GSU&UT 1798]

Yeah I literally got a text from the Beto campaign when he was running for Senate because I had previously voted in Texas. There is absolutely no way that every big candidate doesn't have something like this, it's all about enthusiasm from your base not just blanketly calling people.

[bad_teammate 13132]

Bernie Campaign: "Thanks for wanting to help reach out and promote this campaign. Search your friends and family to find out if they are registered to vote. If they aren't registered, get them to register."

#RESISTANCE: "This is targeted harassment and violence."

[henrygandorf 29177]

i'm not saying it's targeted violence, but depending on how it's worded, it could certainly be seen as targeted harassment.

[bad_teammate 13132]

Just now, henrygandorf said:

i'm not saying it's targeted violence, but depending on how it's worded, it could certainly be seen as targeted harassment.

lol how?

Explain how you think voter outreach works.

[henrygandorf 29177]

well i haven't seen specifics, but if it's what you say it is - and you can just see if friends and family are registered to vote, then sure, an email like "hey, this is an important time for our country, so please get involved, get registered, and help make a positive change" then that's great.  nothing wrong with friendly outreach.

but that twitter quote saying "search friends and family and see if they support our candidate, are undecided, or support someone else" leaves a different taste in my mouth.  if i got an email from anyone outside my family or close friends, and it implied they had specifically searched my status, and are now targeting their message in my direction based on their findings, i would not be cool with that approach.

the info is the info.  it's what happens next.  i'm assuming all undecideds and "supporting someone else" won't get any propaganda in their inbox? 

[bad_teammate 13132]

7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i'm assuming all undecideds and "supporting someone else" won't get any propaganda in their inbox? 

There isn't even a way to enter contact information.

The tool is just an organizer saying, "Here's the name of a person I know and how interested they are."

The campaign uses public voter data to then target promotion (PROPAGANDA!) like mailers.

If a certain area has a lot of potential voters, then canvassers will be sent to the area.

[henrygandorf 29177]

i guess the way it's worded "look up some of your friends and family members" makes it sound like an already established searchable database, instead of something people are trying to help build with contributions.

i totally understand the jump some will make to "harassment".  it's not a totally baseless fear.

[bad_teammate 13132]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i guess the way it's worded "look up some of your friends and family members" makes it sound like an already established searchable database

How does that even make sense? How would Bernie even have that information?

Quote

i totally understand the jump some will make to "harassment".  it's not a totally baseless fear.

yes, it is. Receiving mailers isn't "harassment". Canvassers at the door isn't "harassment". It's idiotic.

This is how politics have been done forever. It is literally just saying, "Hey, here are some voters I know who might be interested."

 

[Biff Tannen 45495]

[henrygandorf 29177]

11 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

How does that even make sense? How would Bernie even have that information?

yes, it is. Receiving mailers isn't "harassment". Canvassers at the door isn't "harassment". It's idiotic.

This is how politics have been done forever. It is literally just saying, "Hey, here are some voters I know who might be interested."

it doesn't make sense, and he wouldn't.  yet.

if you noticed, i'm saying the wording on the twitter post doesn't make sense out of context.  the campaign wants you to look up friends and family members and notate things about them.  the way that message (according to twitter) is worded is horrid, dude.  

if i get a knock on the door or a phone call and someone said, "we heard you're (something they learned from some list) and we'd like to explain why you're wrong and you should decide to do something else" then it's definitely targeted, and some will see it as targeted harassment.  sounds like some people already do.

that's why people canvassing or people at the grocery store or whomever start by saying politely "hi, do you have a minute to talk about..." instead of using information they got from these lists.

[bad_teammate 13132]

Just now, henrygandorf said:

if i get a knock on the door or a phone call and someone said, "we heard you're (something they learned from some list) and we'd like to explain why you're wrong and you should decide to do something else" then it's definitely targeted, and some will see it as targeted harassment.

Does this seem like a real scenario to you?

Quote

that's why people canvassing or people at the grocery store or whomever start by saying politely "hi, do you have a minute to talk about..." instead of using information they got from these lists.

Why would this be any different?

How broken by Twitter is your mind?

[henrygandorf 29177]

i'm giving you examples so you can see how some not wearing bernie-tinted glasses view the world.

personally, i don't think it's harassment.  i said people will make that leap.  it's already happening, so you can stop labeling anyone who doesn't agree with you as "idiotic".

[henrygandorf 29177]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Does this seem like a real scenario to you?

Why would this be any different?

How broken by Twitter is your mind?

i'm not on twitter.

[bad_teammate 13132]

Just now, henrygandorf said:

i'm giving you examples so you can see how some not wearing bernie-tinted glasses view the world.

No, you're giving me a glimpse of how brain-poisoned people view the world.

Why would the default assumption be that the Bernie Sanders campaign wants to send people out to argue with people who disagree? Have you ever done political organizing of any kind? Have you ever been a canvasser? Have you ever coordinated voter outreach?

Quote

it's already happening

Source your conspiracy-peddling.

Quote

i'm not on twitter.

That's fine, but when you see it on here you lose touch with your basic faculties.

[henrygandorf 29177]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Source your conspiracy-peddling.

i didn't say violence and harassment was already happening.  i said people taking the leap to assume it's harassment is already happening.  that's what you said with your first post about it.

[Fozzz 152]

Oh no.

 

 

[henrygandorf 29177]

6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Why would the default assumption be that the Bernie Sanders campaign wants to send people out to argue with people who disagree? Have you ever done political organizing of any kind? Have you ever been a canvasser? Have you ever coordinated voter outreach?

i don't have a default assumption about anything.  i would have the exact same reaction if this was associated with any candidate.  my biggest fuck-up was thinking that you'd listen to any type of reason coming from the other side of whatever you're talking about.  "this is what bernie is doing, and if you have any issue with it, then you're blah blah blah."  again, that was my fuck-up.

but sure, supporters of a certain candidate knowing information about voters who may support other candidates in the climate of 2019 american politics.  what could possibly go wrong? 

lulz.  

[Mojo Hand 4580]

I think it's creepy.  They are asking for supporters to report back with non-public info about family and friends.  I don't want my opinion on Bernie being crowd-sourced from people I know so that the campaign can decide the best way to target me. 

[henrygandorf 29177]

7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Oh no.

 

 

definitely seems legit.

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2019/04/pete-buttigieg-accused-sexual-assault-even-republicans-dont-believe-true/

[David Dennison 18658]

11 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Oh no.

 

 

Yeah.

No.

[Fozzz 152]

Sorry, but I believe all victims.

[Biff Tannen 45495]

jlawokay.gif

[henrygandorf 29177]

1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

Sorry, but I believe all victims.

the sad thing is (not about victims) is that if we are to assume the link i posted is true, and the allegation is false, it looks like a trump supporter trying to attack bernie and pete in one fell swoop.  they're scared.

[David Dennison 18658]

2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Sorry, but I believe all victims.

#NotMe

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Sorry, but I believe all victims.

We are all victims of your presence on this board.

[Fozzz 152]

Chuckie, that hurts.  

[Biff Tannen 45495]

Was this another Jacob Wohl job?

[BradInATX 9208]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Free college tuitions - 60% support

M4A - 70% support

$15 minimum wage - 55% support

FrInGe IdEaS

Source?

[BradInATX 9208]

50 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it doesn't make sense, and he wouldn't.  yet.

if you noticed, i'm saying the wording on the twitter post doesn't make sense out of context.  the campaign wants you to look up friends and family members and notate things about them.  the way that message (according to twitter) is worded is horrid, dude.  

if i get a knock on the door or a phone call and someone said, "we heard you're (something they learned from some list) and we'd like to explain why you're wrong and you should decide to do something else" then it's definitely targeted, and some will see it as targeted harassment.  sounds like some people already do.

that's why people canvassing or people at the grocery store or whomever start by saying politely "hi, do you have a minute to talk about..." instead of using information they got from these lists.

One part of Liz's platform to break up big tech relates to separating the data collection back ends from the profit-generating front-ends (advertisement). I realize that Bernie and Liz are not the same person, but I find that interesting. If you applied Liz's break up big tech plan to Bernie's campaign (as if it were a for-profit), she would want to break his campaign up.

[henrygandorf 29177]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

One part of Liz's platform to break up big tech relates to separating the data collection back ends from the profit-generating front-ends (advertisement). I realize that Bernie and Liz are not the same person, but I find that interesting. If you applied Liz's break up big tech plan to Bernie's campaign (as if it were a for-profit), she would want to break his campaign up.

agreed, it is interesting.  it all goes back to the data collection vs data uses argument.  nobody cared much about data being collected until they found out (gasp) that it was collected for a reason.  i know a lot of people who buy and sell lists almost daily - the more detailed the better (obviously).

@Mojo Hand used the word "creepy".  i think that's a good way to describe it.  hope it doesn't come out that i'm a communist.

[BradInATX 9208]

9 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

agreed, it is interesting.  it all goes back to the data collection vs data uses argument.  nobody cared much about data being collected until they found out (gasp) that it was collected for a reason.  i know a lot of people who buy and sell lists almost daily - the more detailed the better (obviously).

@Mojo Hand used the word "creepy".  i think that's a good way to describe it.  hope it doesn't come out that i'm a communist.

I'm not against data collection or usage, per the way Bernie (or big tech) is using it. There's both an implied social contract and a legal contract (terms of use agreements) that very much reaches the bar of "the user knows what they're getting into" when people sign up for services that aggregate data. I'm also biased though, because I work in big data (nothing anywhere close to this either in function or intrusiveness). 

I think ultimately the "line" will be what the public accepts, and companies and campaigns are going to have to toe that line carefully. Legally it's mostly settled, so it's more of a PR/marketing decision process in terms of how to use data. 

I think the BERN app or whatever is a little creepy, but I'm not horrified by it. I'd be annoyed as hell if a friend or family member used that app to try to solicit me though. Luckily my friends know I'm an asshole and they'd get got if they did that, and my family already know I'll vote for whichever Democrat is up, and also knows I'm an asshole.

Anyone got a link to the app BTW? I want to look around it..

ETA found the "app" online, but can't figure out how to stalk my neighborhood.

Edited April 29, 2019 by BradInATX