2020 Democratic Nominee

[BradInATX 9208]

I would wager that Bernie's voting base is far more conversant in policy than basically any voting base in the 2020 Dem primary.

You would lose a lot of money.

[bad_teammate 13132]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

His major proposal on pricing is the prescription drub price relief act, a peg to the average of five other western countries.

I think the Medicare for All bill he filed is quite a bit more "major" than a reformist bill.

His position as a presidential candidate is to regulate prescription drug prices through the single-payer system.

The legislation you're referring to is simply reform aimed at fixing an individual part of the problem from his position as Senator.

He's running for president, however, and his position as a presidential candidate is to not simply pass the single reform; it's the entire M4A package.

Shinebox, indeed.

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Bernie wants to be president and the way he’s trying to do it is through an emotionally charged/appeal to the people that are fed up with the system.

So Bernie just wants to be president and is using a politically expedient facade of policy and populist emotion to achieve that?

Do you honestly think that's believable?

It's a 50+ year long-game?

Astonishing.

[BradInATX 9208]

9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I'm saying that about most voters, across all candidates and parties, but I'm not sure that they do grasp the direction of the policies. I think they are more likely to project that onto candidates based on their perception of the major thematic elements of the campaign. 

Eh, I think you're splitting hairs a bit here.

I think generally they understand that Bernie is very far left and for broad-reaching social and fiscal programs like M4A, student loan forgiveness, etc. But we're in agreement that you could say the same for most candidates, that very few followers understand the nitty gritty of their proposals. I think you'd find that Warren and probably Pete would be at the top end of this, with everyone else grouped up below them. Probably directly correlated to education and affluence of their bases.

And b_t saying that his "policy details are right out there for everyone" is of course wrong. Nobody is going to go seek out failed bills from 5 years ago to understand how Bernie wants to fund things, except for super-nerds like those of us here.

Edited May 7, 2019 by BradInATX

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

5 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The legislation you're referring to is simply reform aimed at fixing an individual part of the problem from his position as Senator.

He's running for president, however, and his position as a presidential candidate is to not simply pass the single reform; it's the entire M4A package.

Shinebox, indeed.

Indeed. M4A is a somewhat fluid coverage policy model. It is independent of his prescription drug policy position. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

So Bernie just wants to be president and is using a politically expedient facade of policy and populist emotion to achieve that?

 Do you honestly think that's believable?

After Trump successfully used similar tactics, it’s absolutely believable.  I don’t think it’s true and the Trump comparisons are silly but Bernie has the strategy down.  I want Bernie to be better and more inspiring because I do believe dramatic structural change is necessary if we’re going to keep this experiment going.  

Basically I’m saying Bernie needs to be a better salesman which I’m not sure he’s capable of OR he needs to dedicate more time explaining how his ideas can become a reality without him being president. 

[David Dennison 18656]

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

After Trump successfully used similar tactics, it’s absolutely believable.  I don’t think it’s true and the Trump comparisons are silly but Bernie has the strategy down.  I want Bernie to be better and more inspiring because I do believe dramatic structural change is necessary if we’re going to keep this experiment going.  

Basically I’m saying Bernie needs to be a better salesman which I’m not sure he’s capable of OR he needs to dedicate more time explaining how his ideas can become a reality without him being president. 

It's not an experiment. It's a 250 year old system of governance that is clearly showing its age.

[bad_teammate 13132]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

After Trump successfully used similar tactics, it’s absolutely believable.

Trumps 2015/16 campaign influenced Bernie's 1980s political campaigns, which you can see on video everywhere and feature the exact same rhetoric and political beliefs you see from Bernie today.

Trump wasn't just colluding with the Russians, he was colluding with time travelers!

Quote

I want Bernie to be better and more inspiring because I do believe dramatic structural change is necessary if we’re going to keep this experiment going.

Love the concern trolling. It's nice to see.

Hugo, Mr. "WHERE ARE HIS TAXES!?" and "RUSSIA!!!!!!! RUSSSIIAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!" really wants to like Bernie. The guy who went full conspiracy freak mode when Bernie announced is just... so concerned about Bernie doing well.

Just start here and keep scrolling as Hugo loses his mind.

Quote

Basically I’m saying Bernie needs to be a better salesman which I’m not sure he’s capable of OR he needs to dedicate more time explaining how his ideas can become a reality without him being president. 

He is, quite literally, the ONLY candidate who talks about this.

Again, after he ended his 2016 primary campaign he started an entire organization dedicated to promoting progressive policies across the nation.

The Brazoria County branch meets at a Bass Pro Shop every 2 weeks.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

I think we’re done here.

[bad_teammate 13132]

Bernie Sanders in 1988, fresh from learning a good presidential-election strategy from 30 years in the future.

 

[Dbeasy 14967]

Bernie Sanders in 1988, fresh from learning a good presidential-election strategy from 30 years in the future.
 

Whew. Thank goodness all of those problems he described have been solved.

Fascinating to see the same issues being discussed thirty years ago.

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Just like to say Frank Luntz is a douchebag 

[bad_teammate 13132]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

The thing that gives me faith that a non-Biden will eventually defeat him.

The media gets tired of basically everything, and Joe isn't interesting enough to drive headlines on his own.

[David Dennison 18656]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The thing that gives me faith that a non-Biden will eventually defeat him.

The media gets tired of basically everything, and Joe isn't interesting enough to drive headlines on his own.

[bad_teammate 13132]

Donald is the exception, not the rule. (hence, "basically")

He's been a media sensation since the 80s and is an engaging and interesting character.

Joe Biden sucks and is extremely boring and lame.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

13 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

What is hidden in these numbers is how much Trump can influence the coverage.  

Trump freaked out over Biden on Twitter and this has an influence on the MSM coverage of Biden.

Trump can create a perception that the MSM has picked their winner by constantly bringing them up and complaining about the coverage bias he is helping manufacture.  

From Trump’s perspective it’s a win-win to keep going after Biden or whoever he wants his opponent to be because the media will follow his lead and in doing so, people will lose faith in the objectivity of the media’s coverage...  Or whatever faith they might have left.

Edited May 7, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[David Dennison 18656]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Donald is the exception, not the rule. (hence, "basically")

He's been a media sensation since the 80s and is an engaging and interesting character.

Joe Biden sucks and is extremely boring and lame.

He's also very popular with Democratic voters.

[troph 24562]

Indeed. M4A is a somewhat fluid coverage policy model. It is independent of his prescription drug policy position. 

The biggest issue in routine health care imo is script drug costs.

[JimmyJames 12271]

Trump went after Biden because his mental illness just can’t help it. It wound up helping Biden significantly. Trump can be an idiot, as we all know. 

For better or worse, Biden is gonna be the dem nominee in a large part because of the blacks. They have a very significant effect on the dem primary and like old joe. Plus they relate him to Obama. 

They have no sympathy for the gays because of their own experiences, or white women for obvious reasons, and dont like black women former prosecutors, again for what should be obvious reasons. 

This thread will go on for a hundred more pages but that’s gonna be the end result. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

10 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Trump went after Biden because his mental illness just can’t help it. It wound up helping Biden significantly. Trump can be an idiot, as we all know. 

For better or worse, Biden is gonna be the dem nominee in a large part because of the blacks. They have a very significant effect on the dem primary and like old joe. Plus they relate him to Obama. 

They have no sympathy for the gays because of their own experiences, or white women for obvious reasons, and dont like black women former prosecutors, again for what should be obvious reasons. 

This thread will go on for a hundred more pages but that’s gonna be the end result. 

I feel like Biden will be whatever the democrats need him to be in the end.  He’s not exactly ideologically locked in to anything.  The flaw with this is he lacks any real conviction to give it his all and ultimately why I don’t care for him. 

Nevertheless, this primary process isn’t just about finding a person, it’s also about developing a platform for the candidate to run on.  The good thing about Biden is he is more malleable than most.  

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I feel like Biden will be whatever the democrats need him to be in the end.  He’s not exactly ideologically locked in to anything.  The flaw with this is he lacks any real conviction to give it his all and ultimately why I don’t care for him. 

Nevertheless, this primary process isn’t just about finding a person, it’s also about developing a platform for the candidate to run on.  The good thing about Biden is he is more malleable than most.  

What complete, utter nonsense. The fact that you’re already trying to convince yourself and others is so fucking depressing.

Biden is a a fucking dinosaur that won’t change anything about himself. People generally don’t mold themselves into something different when they’re 85 years old. 45 years in D.C as a white male politician creates an ego that can’t be contained. Joe Biden has a shitload of conviction for Joe Biden.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

What complete, utter nonsense. The fact that you’re already trying to convince yourself and others is so fucking depressing.

Biden is a a fucking dinosaur that won’t change anything about himself. People generally don’t mold themselves into something different when they’re 85 years old. 45 years in D.C as a white male politician creates an ego that can’t be contained. Joe Biden has a shitload of conviction for Joe Biden.

Sorry I’m not going to go all bad teammate on Biden.  I don’t like Biden and he is in no way a solution to our most challenging problems but for better or worse, he is an experienced politician and that has some value.  

Let me put it this way, I would vote for Hillary Clinton over Joe Biden but if it comes down to him vs Trump I’ll have no hesitation.

As much as Biden is persuading people like JimmyJames and the poll watchers, it’s still wide open as to who will win the nomination.  I’ll respect the process and if the voters decide Biden is the guy, I’ll go along with it because tearing him down isn’t exactly productive in our current situation.  Trust the process and let democracy work itself out with the nomination is my approach to this.

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

I just don’t think there’s any need to sugarcoat Biden. He is what he is. 

 

[henrygandorf 29175]

21 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

What complete, utter nonsense. The fact that you’re already trying to convince yourself and others is so fucking depressing.

Biden is a a fucking dinosaur that won’t change anything about himself. People generally don’t mold themselves into something different when they’re 85 years old. 45 years in D.C as a white male politician creates an ego that can’t be contained. Joe Biden has a shitload of conviction for Joe Biden.

he's basically running on one issue - beating trump.  it's weirdly genius and probably will work considering where our country is right now.

it's disgusting and sad and nonsensical, but right now seems like the most likely scenario until i see something else that seems feasible.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I just don’t think there’s any need to sugarcoat Biden. He is what he is. 

Yes, he’s not Trump which is his entire campaign strategy. 

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

And he will lose with that strategy. No question.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

And he will lose with that strategy. No question.

I dunno, Trump being “Not Hillary” worked out pretty well.  Fear campaigns work, it’s scientifically proven. 

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

Fear campaigns work for Republicans.  A lot of Democrats actually believe in something. 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Fear campaigns work for Republicans.  A lot of Democrats actually believe in something. 

The independent voters and the reluctant Obama/Trump swing voters are the targets for Biden.  It’s not about playing up the base, it’s about winning the election.

[henrygandorf 29175]

6 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

And he will lose with that strategy. No question.

 

i have an odd feeling that trump is going to get his clock cleaned regardless. 

the sliver of people that voted for him because (1) he wasn't hillary, or (2) he was a complete unknown or (3) they just vote republican every cycle - that are disgusted by who he is and how he's governing seems to be growing.  i think a lot of people who fall into those categories will vote the other way in 2020.

i know a ton more people in that sliver (including folks on this site) than i know people that actively support biden (or trump even, but i'm sheltered).

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

8 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

he's basically running on one issue - beating trump.  it's weirdly genius and probably will work considering where our country is right now.

it's disgusting and sad and nonsensical, but right now seems like the most likely scenario until i see something else that seems feasible.

There's nothing genius about it. Somehow we've convinced ourselves - through the mythical "accuracy" of polling and the curious adoration from the media - that Biden is the best candidate to defeat Trump. How many times has Biden run for president before? How did that go? 

The reality is Joe Biden is old as fuck, the very definition of "the swamp", and the Democratic version of Make America Great Again.  Ds have a tough multiple choice test on their hands, and out of 22 possible answers, there's one obviously wrong answer. Biden.  Out of all the possible nightmare scenarios on how the left responds to Trumpism, this is the worst one hands down. 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Just now, henrygandorf said:

i have an odd feeling that trump is going to get his clock cleaned regardless. 

This is where I am but I don’t want to get complacent about it.  

[Hawndoh 2382]

Don't underestimate the stupidity of the general populace. Anyone can win. Including Trump. 

[henrygandorf 29175]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

There's nothing genius about it.

it's genius because all of his other issues suck.  as does his personality, voting record, and ability to speak like a sober person.

he's not a genius, but he's found the only likable thing about himself, and i can see it working.

doesn't mean i want it to, i'm just being realistic.  i hope i'm wrong.

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

20 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

he's basically running on one issue - beating trump.  it's weirdly genius and probably will work considering where our country is right now.

it's disgusting and sad and nonsensical, but right now seems like the most likely scenario until i see something else that seems feasible.

I don't really think this is it.  He's running as a centrist Democrat and as usual the hard left of the Democratic party overestimates what the lion's share of the population wants, including the independents and moderates.  Is he selling rosy retrospection?  Of course, but it's a viable strategy considering what's infected the office currently.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, Hawndoh said:

Don't underestimate the stupidity of the general populace. Anyone can win. Including Trump. 

Yeah, anyone can beat Trump but at the same time, anyone can lose to Trump.  

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

it's genius because all of his other issues suck.  as does his personality, voting record, and ability to speak like a sober person.

Gotcha. 

 

 

 

[henrygandorf 29175]

1 minute ago, Hawndoh said:

Don't underestimate the stupidity of the general populace. Anyone can win. Including Trump. 

100%.

but it was a closer election than most realize.  definitely closer than most realized on election day, when it actually did look like a blowout because of the electoral math.

if i take a step back and think like a reasonable person:

-a lot of people voted for trump in 2016.  the votes were spread around the right way to win the few swing states he needed.

-in my mind, everyone who was ever going to vote for trump, voted for him in 2016. 

-better put, his last 2.5 years haven't swayed any non-trump voters his way.  people who vote with their pocketbook likely voted for him in 2016.  i just don't see dems or undecideds voting for him now, strictly because of the economy (his only positive). i think he's lost a ton more than he could've possibly gained (since i think he's gained next to zero).

-the russia stuff may not help the dems, but i don't see it helping undecideds go his way.  if anything, people are more wary that something's up.  ditto any impeachment talk.  sympathy/playing the victim doesn't work like that.

-the only way trump wins is by rallying almost everyone who voted for him before, and a bunch of people that didn't vote at all.

-there are certainly some unqualified people trying to run against him, but nobody who's as unlikable as hillary (my opinion).  in other words, in this election, trump will be the unlikable one, guaranteed.

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

3 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I don't really think this is it.  He's running as a centrist Democrat and as usual the hard left of the Democratic party overestimates what the lion's share of the population wants, including the independents and moderates.  Is he selling rosy retrospection?  Of course, but it's a viable strategy considering what's infected the office currently.

 

Let's fight Republican rosy retrospection with Democratic rosy retrospection! That'll show'em!

Biden as POTUS is winning the battle but losing the war. 

Also, a "centrist Democrat" like Biden is actually a Republican on the real political spectrum.  Buttigieg is correct. The "center" has been pulled right over the last 30-40 years and Joe is the poster boy. 

 

 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

-the only way trump wins is by rallying almost everyone who voted for him before, and a bunch of people that didn't vote at all.

there are scenarios involving third party candidates that can seal the deal for Trump.  A third party candidate could also doom Trump like GHWB in ‘92

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

Almost everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again in 2020. And he'll pick up voters who are satisfied with the economy (assuming it's still considered strong). Plus he benefits from the fucker that is the electoral college.

Trump wins with a low and unenthusiastic turnout from Democrats. And that's how he defeats Biden. 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Almost everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again in 2020. And he'll pick up voters who are satisfied with the economy (assuming it's still considered strong). Plus he benefits from the fucker that is the electoral college.

Trump wins with a low and unenthusiastic turnout from Democrats. And that's how he defeats Biden. 

 

I’d really like to see some models with Pence as the nominee.  Do you think he’d be a weaker or stronger candidate than Trump?  I honestly don’t know. 

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

I have relatives that didn't vote for Trump in 2016 who will definitely vote for him in 2020. They only care about their money, they like the economy, and are worried a Democrat in office will only have a negative effect. 

Democrats only defeat him with a huge and enthusiastic turnout at the polls. 

 

 

[henrygandorf 29175]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Almost everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again in 2020.

maybe i'm naive, i just really don't think this is true.  unless somehow i personally know most of the people that fall under those previously mentioned categories.

7 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 And he'll pick up voters who are satisfied with the economy (assuming it's still considered strong).

like i said, i think anyone who votes based on that probably already votes r.  i could see maybe some pocketbook voters voting against bernie in some sort of irrational "anti-socialist" situation, but i doubt it.

8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Trump wins with a low and unenthusiastic turnout from Democrats. And that's how he defeats Biden. 

this is definitely the blue print for a trump win over someone uninspiring like biden.

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

13 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Let's fight Republican rosy retrospection with Democratic rosy retrospection! That'll show'em!

Biden as POTUS is winning the battle but losing the war. 

Also, a "centrist Democrat" like Biden is actually a Republican on the real political spectrum.  Buttigieg is correct. The "center" has been pulled right over the last 30-40 years and Joe is the poster boy. 

 

 

 

Maybe.  Maybe not.  But the ultra left part of the party always overestimates the velocity of the kind of change wanted or is needed.  It appears that folks prefer a centrist rather than a progressive.... at least early.  Perhaps a "progressive" like Bernie or Warren can effectively win over more votes as the debates exposes the differences in thoughts but at least right now, there is more of an appetite to wrestle power away from Trumpism with a known quantity.  It's incumbent on the others in the race to build or change consensus by delivering an impactful message.  Obama was able to do this to a poor and vulnerable candidate.  If Biden is as weak as you think, then maybe someone else will be able to do so.  All of that said, I don't think theres any reason to demonize the guy.  He isn't Trump.  

 

Not a Biden guy FTR, as I've stated.  Would prefer someone a little younger and bolder, but have to admit that right now, the non-Trumpist seem to prefer the old white guys (Joe and Bernie).

[JimmyJames 12271]

Trump won by 80,000 votes in three states that were specifically targeted by the trump campaign and the russians and their trolls, along with parts of Florida. All of which Hillary and the dems basically ignored. That will not happen again.

If the economy stays the same, and if he wasn’t such a dipshit, trump would win in a rout but instead he wont win at all because Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will flip and he likely loses Arizona as well. Florida and Iowa are toss ups but it wont matter and he probably loses those as well anyway. 

I don’t like Biden’s political stances in the past on a number of issues, or even today, but there is only one reason I am even posting on this board and that is because of the rise of trump, who must be stopped at all costs. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by JimmyJames

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Maybe.  Maybe not.  But the ultra left part of the party always overestimates the velocity of the kind of change wanted or is needed.  It appears that folks prefer a centrist rather than a progressive.... at least early.  Perhaps a "progressive" like Bernie or Warren can effectively win over more votes as the debates exposes the differences in thoughts but at least right now, there is more of an appetite to wrestle power away from Trumpism with a known quantity.  It's incumbent on the others in the race to build or change consensus by delivering an impactful message.  Obama was able to do this to a poor and vulnerable candidate.  If Biden is as weak as you think, then maybe someone else will be able to do so.  All of that said, I don't think theres any reason to demonize the guy.  He isn't Trump.  

You make some valid points. 

But Biden is essentially the Republican candidate out of 22 Ds currently running. And we shouldn't fall in to the trap of believing a significant number of 2016 Trump supporters will vote for Joe.  

Everything he represents is a step backwards, and Democrats need to wake the fuck up. 

 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

24 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

You make some valid points. 

But Biden is essentially the Republican candidate out of 22 Ds currently running. And we shouldn't fall in to the trap of believing a significant number of 2016 Trump supporters will vote for Joe.  

Everything he represents is a step backwards, and Democrats need to wake the fuck up. 

I think you might be overvaluing the presidency as far as bringing about meaningful change.  

The Roosevelts aren’t walking through that door but the future of the Democratic Party has never looked better in my lifetime then it does right now,  regardless of who wins in 2020.  

There’s a movement going on that not even the Joe Bidens can afford to ignore.  We’re not getting a savior of the republic in 2020 and if we’re counting on a savior, we’re really fucked. 

Still, Joe Biden sucks. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

PLAY THE HITS, JOE!!!

[texastough 1129]

Biden is so far ahead right now simply because of name recognition. In other words, most of the country knows who he is because he was Vice President, while most of the other candidates are only known to people who follow politics, and in their own home states. Once the primaries heat up and Biden shows his senility at the same time the others get their names out there to the masses, his lead will shrink. Will it disappear? I hope so.

My question is, does anyone know where to find historical polling data from this far ahead of the primaries? I'd be curious to see where other candidates were polling the year before the election vs where they ended up.