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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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The Six-year sitting mayor of New York is polling behind four people I’ve still never heard of (and I do side work in politics).  How is that possible?  

Looking forward to seeing the Houston debates next month before the Rice game. I’m sure some of these candidates when asked why they are still in the race, could reply, “I’m in it so long as Rice still plays Texas.  You never know!”  

Sometimes you do know Bill, sometimes you just know 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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If I was Beto, I wouldn’t want anything to do with the Texas senate race in 2020.   I couldn’t stand losing another one with how hard he fought against Ted Cruz.  

Texas decided Ted Cruz was a better public servant than Beto.   That’s a disgrace.  

However, Beto has to be on EVERYONE’S short list for Vice President because it would put Beto on the ballot in Texas in 2020.  That has value.  A lot of value. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

If I was Beto, I wouldn’t want anything to do with the Texas senate race in 2020.   I couldn’t stand losing another one with how hard he fought against Ted Cruz.  

Texas decided Ted Cruz was a better public servant than Beto.   That’s a disgrace.  

However, Beto has to be on EVERYONE’S short list for Vice President because it would put Beto on the ballot in Texas in 2020.  That has value.  A lot of value. 

Agree. I doubt he beats Cornyn and another loss would be really tough to bounce back from. His best bet for his long-term political prospects is a cabinet position, IMO. He's not getting VP though. If it's a white guy, it'll be Pete.

Edited by BradInATX
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

He's not getting VP though. If it's a white guy, it'll be Pete.

Pete offers no strategic value as a VP pick.  He’s a fan favorite VP choice because he’s inspirational and transformative but he’s not going to put Indiana in play.  Beto’s Texas value is unmatched among potential VP choices.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45491

Posted
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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Pete offers no strategic value as a VP pick.  He’s a fan favorite VP choice because he’s inspirational and transformative but he’s not going to put Indiana in play.  Beto’s Texas value is unmatched among potential VP choices.

This is where I'm at.  Beto as VP is a can't lose.  He puts Texas squarely in play and if not, he's got great charisma and can get people excited regardless.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

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I actually think Castro may be surging onto the short list of VP choices for Warren or even Harris.  He fits a badly needed demographic who is in a state which is hurdling towards being purple in a few cycles (and isn't rabid for Trump).  I get Beto's case as well, but I think Castro may check more boxes.  I think Beto's hoping for a cabinet or party position until maybe running it back vs Cruz.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Castro checks more boxes but he didn’t build a statewide organic grassroots movement in 2018 coupled with a monster fundraising machine.   The Beto campaign infrastructure still exists in Texas, those folks are still around.  Castro is good and he would be a quality VP selection but Beto is a ringer with celebrity status nationwide. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I actually think Castro may be surging onto the short list of VP choices for Warren or even Harris.  He fits a badly needed demographic who is in a state which is hurdling towards being purple in a few cycles (and isn't rabid for Trump).  I get Beto's case as well, but I think Castro may check more boxes.  I think Beto's hoping for a cabinet or party position until maybe running it back vs Cruz.

If Biden or Bernie - Castro, Harris, Booker or another POC/woman 

If Harris or Warren - Castro, Beto, Pete or a different white man 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Pete offers no strategic value as a VP pick.  He’s a fan favorite VP choice because he’s inspirational and transformative but he’s not going to put Indiana in play.  Beto’s Texas value is unmatched among potential VP choices.

I think you're exactly wrong. Beto is not going to flip Texas blue as a VP. But Pete's Midwestern sensibility will play in the rust belt, where Beto's aloof Gen X skateboarder guy act will play incredibly poorly up there. Look at how Beto is doing in Iowa despite spending a bunch of time up there - he's not even at 1%. 

Not to mention that a gay young Indianan vs. an old gay-hating Indianan will be must-watch TV. It will dominate the news cycle. And Pete will absolutely tear Pence to pieces with a smile. Whereas Beto and Pence would be about as milquetoast and boring as anything on this planet could be.

There is no chance a candidate is going to take O'Rourke, who has looked completely out of place on the national stage, as their VP on the off-chance of flipping Texas. If Texas flips, the Democrat already had it won anyway. It's all eyes on the rust belt, and Beto, at best, does nothing for the Dems there.

Edited by BradInATX
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I think you're exactly wrong. Beto is not going to flip Texas blue as a VP. But Pete's Midwestern sensibility will play in the rust belt, where Beto's aloof Gen X skateboarder guy act will play incredibly poorly up there. Look at how Beto is doing in Iowa despite spending a bunch of time up in Iowa - he's not even at 1%. 

Not to mention that a gay young Indianan vs. an old gay-hating Indianan will be must-watch TV. It will dominate the news cycle. And Pete will absolutely tear Pence to pieces with a smile. Whereas Beto and Pence would be about as milquetoast and boring as anything on this planet could be.

There is no chance a candidate is going to take O'Rourke, who has looked completely out of place on the national stage, as their VP on the off-chance of flipping Texas. If Texas flips, the Democrat already had it won anyway.

General election strategy is a different game from the primaries.  The Republicans were terrified when Beto enter the race for a reason and no one is going to change their vote over a VP debate.  

Biden was polling at 1% when Obama picked him, for strategic reasons.  He wasn’t added to the ticket because he was the best available. 

No one votes for the Vice President but people can vote against you because of your VP, see also Palin.  Between Beto and Pete, Beto is not only the safer play but also the most advantageous because he forces the Republicans to spend massive resources in Texas.  There is no path for the Republicans without Texas. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

General election strategy is a different game from the primaries.  The Republicans were terrified when Beto enter the race for a reason and no one is going to change their vote over a VP debate.  

Biden was polling at 1% when Obama picked him, for strategic reasons.  He wasn’t added to the ticket because he was the best available. 

No one votes just for the Vice President but people can vote against you because of your VP, see also Palin.  Between Beto and Pete, Beto is not only the safer play but also the most advantageous because he forces the Republicans to spend massive resources in Texas.  There is no path for the Republicans without Texas. 

Thanks for explaining to me that the general election requires different strategy than the primary.

So your contention is that forcing the Republicans to spend money in Texas is more important than actually winning the rust belt?

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Thanks for explaining to me that the general election requires different strategy than the primary.

So your contention is that forcing the Republicans to spend money in Texas is more important than actually winning the rust belt?

I’m saying by focusing their resources in Texas they will be neglecting other areas like the rust belt, Arizona, Utah, and Florida.  It spreads them thin. Trump is currently underwater in 10 states he won, including Texas (barely 49-48).  Democrats need to curb stomp the GOP in 2020, not just pander to the Midwest. 

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&utm_campaign=ticker

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m saying by focusing their resources in Texas they will be neglecting other areas like the rust belt, Arizona, Utah, and Florida.  It spreads them thin. Trump is currently underwater in 10 states he won, including Texas (barely 49-48).  Democrats need to curb stomp the GOP in 2020, not just pander to the Midwest. 

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&utm_campaign=ticker

The Republicans are not going to neglect MI/WI/PA in favor of Texas. They, like any rational person, understand that if they lose Texas, they already lost those three states, ergo Texas never mattered. And the impact of "making people spend money" is way overblown. Hillary outspend Trump 2:1 last time and we all saw what happened. You play to win the game.
 

"Democrats need to curb stomp the GOP in 2020, not just pander to the Midwest. "

That's silly and petulant. We need the Democrats to win. It doesn't matter by how much. Emotional catharsis for you and others is far less important than Trump GTFOing the White House. Hillary lost the election by trying to swing "rout" states like Florida/Ohio while never stepping foot in must-win Wisconsin. Terrible then, terrible now.

The path to victory is really simple. Win the rust belt. Win the presidency. I thought you'd have learned from your girl Hillary trying to style on Trump by campaigning in glamour states before she actually finished the dunk. Guess not.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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So your brilliant strategy for victory is to not try to beat Trump everywhere but only in a few key areas?  You understand this is exactly how elections are lost, right?   You sound exactly like a corporate pundit with this rust belt shit.  Yeah they’re important and the best candidate should be able to win them with a good messaging strategy.  

Also, Texas would be cool if it’s doable. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18652

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3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The Republicans are not going to neglect MI/WI/PA in favor of Texas. They, like any rational person, understand that if they lose Texas, they already lost those three states, ergo Texas never mattered. And the impact of "making people spend money" is way overblown. Hillary outspend Trump 2:1 last time and we all saw what happened. You play to win the game.
 

"Democrats need to curb stomp the GOP in 2020, not just pander to the Midwest. "

That's silly and petulant. We need the Democrats to win. It doesn't matter by how much. Emotional catharsis for you and others is far less important than Trump GTFOing the White House. Hillary lost the election by trying to swing "rout" states like Florida/Ohio while never stepping foot in must-win Wisconsin. Terrible then, terrible now.

The path to victory is really simple. Win the rust belt. Win the presidency. I thought you'd have learned from your girl Hillary trying to style on Trump by campaigning in glamour states before she actually finished the dunk. Guess not.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin should scare the shit out of Trump 2020.

 

 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So you’re brilliant strategy for victory is to not try to beat Trump everywhere but only in a few key areas?  You understand this is exactly how elections are lost, right?   You sound exactly like a corporate pundit with this rust belt shit.  Yeah they’re important and the best candidate should be able to win them with a good messaging strategy.  

And a good messaging strategy includes picking a VP who plays well to those people. Which Beto is not.

Your*

I sound like a "corporate pundit" for saying that the Democrats should focus on the three states that swung the last election? What are you even talking about? Pete is smarter, a better speaker, a better debater, more accomplished, and plays much better to the Midwest than skateboard Beto does. Your sole reason to pick Beto is to try to swing a state that would be completely meaningless other than getting style points in a victory that was already locked up.  You want to run up the score because you're mad, I get it. But you have to win the game before you start running the score up.

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bolverk

bolverk 29397

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50 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Beto's aloof Gen X skateboarder guy act will play incredibly poorly up there.

Then get him on that skateboard with the Violent Femmes (Wisconsin), the Romantics (Michigan), Devo (Ohio), and the Dead Milkmen (Pennsylvania) blaring in the background. For good measure, "Little Pink Houses" might do in a pinch for Indiana as well.

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bolverk

bolverk 29397

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5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Then get him on that skateboard with the Violent Femmes (Wisconsin), the Romantics (Michigan), Devo (Ohio), and the Dead Milkmen (Pennsylvania) blaring in the background. For good measure, "Little Pink Houses" might do in a pinch for Indiana as well.

On further thought, Okay Go would be a better fit for riling up the Indiana Gen Xers and Millennials -- but also definitely The Coog! for the Boomers -- because my less than encyclopedic knowledge of "Indiana Rock" is all used up now.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

tenor.gif

Kennedy won because of LBJ and Texas.   You make absurd claims, without evidence, that Beto can’t resonate with the rust belt as well as Pete.  While at the same time, with a straight face, say democrats shouldn’t even try in Texas because it’s not winnable. 

 I’d say you’re trolling or dumb but likely a little bit of both.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

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Biden has a female creeper problem, so IMO if he gets the nomination (don't think he will), he'll almost be forced to run with a female which will soften his issue up a lot.  Another white male on the ticket doesn't do a lot for Biden other than regionality.  I would guess Klobacher would be a name talked about for Biden if he wins.  She's from the North (they remember) and is politically a centrist like he is with a track record of working across the aisle.  It could be someone not in the race at all right now, like an Abrams but I doubt it's a Beto or Pete frankly.  Their best bets are Warren or Harris winning the nomination, IMO.

 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5782

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Fuck going hard for Texas. Looking at the demographics and the major metropolitan areas of Texas, there's no fucking reason it should be as red as it is. And Texas just elected fuck face Cruz over Beto on the back of the Trump train. 

The VP on the Dem ticket should boost PA, WI, or MI. Period. And if for some reason they don't, then it should boost NC or AZ. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Kennedy won because of LBJ and Texas.   You make absurd claims, without evidence, that Beto can’t resonate with the rust belt as well as Pete.  While at the same time, with a straight face, say democrats shouldn’t even try in Texas because it’s not winnable. 

 I’d say you’re trolling or dumb but likely a little bit of both.

You're using a 60 year-old map where the Republican won California, Oregon, and Washington as some sort of "proof" that Texas is super important in 2020, and calling me dumb? Hahaha. I guess we really need to defend those Democratic strongholds of Louisiana and Arkansas with everything we have!! GTFO. You're out of your depth, kid.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

You're using a 60 year-old map where the Republican won California, Oregon, and Washington as some sort of "proof" that Texas is super important in 2020, and calling me dumb? Hahaha. GTFO.

No, I’m saying choosing a VP strategically is more important than who you personally prefer.  It can be the difference in a close election, as it was in 1960.

 Pete Buttigieg never had more than 100,000 vote for him and he’s never run a major campaign against an incumbent Republican.  Four million people have already voted for Beto against an incumbent Republican in a solid red state with campaign assistance from Trump himself...and he nearly won.  That experience matters.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

No, I’m saying choosing a VP strategically is more import than who you personally prefer.

I agree. That's why you strategically pick a candidate that gives you the best chance of winning the areas that matter. Not the candidate that has a 1 in 10 chance of delivering you a state that has a 1 in 1,000 chance of being the state that swings the election, because you're angry at Trump and you're angry at Mueller and you're angry that you looked foolish for an entire year and you want retribution and validation via an electoral rout.

The rest of us that aren't emotionally invested for silly reasons want to pick someone who actually gives the Democratic nominee a better shot to be president.

I'm happy to make a friendly wager with you if you're as confident as you act. $100 donation to the charity of the winner's choosing on Pete vs. Beto as VP. Neither getting it means a push (nobody pays). 

Edited by BradInATX
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted

This South African tourist in Hong Kong perfectly exemplifies the American white centrist to me.

- "I just had an image of a happier place and I am in tears because the nice servants are acting upset!"
- "There's a good and bad to all sides (in this case, police beating protesters)!"
- "Due to the unruliness of the non-white people, I have been inconvenienced!"

It's uncanny.

 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted
Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Fuck off troll. Pete isn’t going to be the Democratic VP nominee.  I’ll bet you $100 straight up on that. 

lol. I never said he was. I said, my exact words "if it's a white guy, it'll be Pete". You argued with me relentlessly on that point. And now you're backing away from it. Your mouth wrote checks you can't cash. No problem, we've all been there. Peace.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

This South African tourist in Hong Kong perfectly exemplifies the American white centrist to me.

- "I just had an image of a happier place and I am in tears because the nice servants are acting upset!"
- "There's a good and bad to all sides (in this case, police beating protesters)!"
- "Due to the unruliness of the non-white people, I have been inconvenienced!"

It's uncanny.

 

I bet back home she lives in a nice gated community so as to keep the riff raff and the poors out.

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F250

F250 28680

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

This South African tourist in Hong Kong perfectly exemplifies the American white centrist to me.

- "I just had an image of a happier place and I am in tears because the nice servants are acting upset!"
- "There's a good and bad to all sides (in this case, police beating protesters)!"
- "Due to the unruliness of the non-white people, I have been inconvenienced!"

It's uncanny.

 

Wow, talk about a complete lack of awareness.

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