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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27608

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Ron Klain is Biden campaign guy.  It needs to be known.  Not saying his information is bad, just that he’s going to tweet out the most favorable Biden numbers possible.

That explains his snark. 

I don't want it misunderstood. I'm not thrilled about Biden. But, he's still leading. How many are going to drop out after this round? All those voters are going to someone. 

Who polls worse with the suburban semi-Republican sometimes Democratic white, college educated female? 

 

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Js1

Js1 85619

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Again, Trump at 38-40% against any of the candidates. 

 

Q-Pac: Trump averages 39.4
Emerson: 49 (push leaners and only provided 2 options) and the Dem averages 51
Fox: 38.75
SurveyUSA: 43.2
IBD: 44
 

So in the last 2 weeks, Trump H2H is somewhere around 42-43% (41% if you remove Emerson's weird polling).  In August 2011, incumbent Obama was averaging 48% of the vote against declared and hypothetical Republican challengers.  He never dropped below 41% in any poll (a shit Rasmussen poll). 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted

Almost every poll we see has Biden in a commanding lead but there are many indicators his lead is fragile.

The more people pay attention to the candidates and not the polls, the worse it gets for Biden. 

Before Iowa, Biden is going to have to survive four more nationally televised debates with Warren, Bernie, and Harris on the same stage.

It’s no surprise why the betting markets have Biden as an underdog to win the nomination. 

 

 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45750

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

these polls are getting me too excited and proud of my country.  if the final election looks like those numbers above and we end up with some electoral wipeout that rids us of this sort of stupidity for a generation, it will all be worth it.

Yeah, hold your horses there Mike TV.  We MAY get rid of the dotard, but the rest of his enablers?  Moscow Mitch, etc?  That would be a blowout of epic proportions.  

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6th Street

6th Street 6508

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It's only her biggest vulnerability because she has already overcome her previous biggest vulnerability. 

Once she wins black support, what will be her new biggest vulnerability? 

What is Warren doing to connect with minority voters? Right now her base is primarily college educated whites on the coasts. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

What is Warren doing to connect with minority voters? Right now her base is primarily college educated whites on the coasts. 

This is the wrong framing. The question should be, “What is Biden doing to maintain his iron grip on black voters?” 

The main reason Biden has insane support among black voters is because they currently perceive him to be the best shot to beat Trump.  

For Warren to win black voters, she needs to prove to them she is the better candidate to take down Trump.  The best way to do this is to beat Biden head to head in an actual primary election like Iowa and/or New Hampshire.  They need confidence in her ability to with the general. 

If Biden can’t win in the Midwest against Elizabeth Warren, what makes anyone think he’s the best candidate to beat Trump in the general?

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29197

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is the wrong framing. The question should be, “What is Biden doing to maintain his iron grip on black voters?” 

The main reason Biden has insane support among black voters is because they currently perceive him to be the best shot to beat Trump.  

For Warren to win black voters, she needs to prove to them she is the better candidate to take down Trump.  The best way to do this is to beat Biden head to head in an actual primary election like Iowa and/or New Hampshire.  They need confidence in her ability to with the general. 

If Biden can’t win in the Midwest against Elizabeth Warren, what makes anyone think he’s the best candidate to beat Trump in the general?

not sure this is true.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

not sure this is true.

It’s not Obama although I can see why some might think that.  Obama put Biden in his front runner position by selecting him VP so in a way it is Obama but the black voters affinity for Biden is more about his perceived ability to beat Trump than his connection to Obama. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29197

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s not Obama although I can see why some might think that.  Obama put Biden in his front runner position by selecting him VP so in a way it is Obama but the black voters affinity for Biden is more about his ability to beat Trump than his connection to Obama. 

is there evidence to support this? 

biden does everything he can do align himself with obama because it helps him with poc and "obama democrats".

overall, his numbers are strong because of name rec and perceived electability.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

Posted
Posted (edited)

At first, I was like where is she going with the whole ACA thing, but she finally got to her point. The problem was, she didn't seem to have ideas in place prior to the meeting. But, at the same time if one is going to listen to community members and community reps and then discover what their issues are and THEN form a plan based on the outcome of that meeting, is that so bad? It is more active and engaged than many politicians. However, at this point words are just words. Can she get traction and action?

*referring to the NowThis clip/tweet

Edited by Mrs Whiggins
edit for explanation
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s not Obama although I can see why some might think that.  Obama put Biden in his front runner position by selecting him VP so in a way it is Obama but the black voters affinity for Biden is more about his perceived ability to beat Trump than his connection to Obama. 

It’s also important to note the black vote is not monolithic. Biden doesn’t even have half of the black voting block. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Js1

Js1 85619

Posted
Posted (edited)

Nah, you have to release it even if it's divergent from the field.  That's what a good pollster does.  Hiding "bad" results is shady.  Also why you aggregate. 

Edited by Js1
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29197

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Also, among men, Warren is beating Biden in this one 22 to 17.  Page 166 

BUT...Biden is killing it among women over Warren..30 to 19.  

Weird. 

not that surprising.

there have been plenty of polls in the past showing that women often don't want to vote for a women.  women voters also (per the polls) trust men more as they (the candidate) get older, and trust women less.  if true, this would show why warren is where she is with women in these polls.  hopefully they'll come around.  

definitely weird though.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

not that surprising.

there have been plenty of polls in the past showing that women often don't want to vote for a women.  women voters also (per the polls) trust men more as they (the candidate) get older, and trust women less.  if true, this would show why warren is where she is with women in these polls.  hopefully they'll come around.  

definitely weird though.

Yeah, the disappointment number indicates women are much more open to Warren than Biden on the whole.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, longhornmatt said:

Is it weird, though?  Have you ever been to a school, or an office, or a family reunion?  Women as a group like Democrats more than Republicans.  They don’t necessarily like other women more than men.

The men number is more of the oddity. That Warren is beating Biden near convincingly across men. Did not see that coming. 

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