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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

By used2b
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11170

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Here we see the enduring rhetorical power of "the white establishment myth of meritocracy".

 

8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

that's the thing that's so baffling about the anger that this media critique elicits from white liberals.

Aren't you a white liberal?

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Aren't you a white liberal?

Yes.

Am I supposed to be in favor of white identity politics because I'm white? I don't get where this is going.

24 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

No and it shouldn't be because it's fucking stupid.

Sure, I'm just wondering where Mojo gets the idea that the media has roasted Warren over it when they haven't even brought it up in 9 months of campaigning.

20 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

For many people, "personality" isn't high up on their level of needs. But for a certain class of people, all they're really looking for is the right personality fit.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted

This is the demographic of people we need to activate to win 2020...

- young
- non-white
- HS or less
- $75k/yr or less

I think Warren is very well-suited to grab the working class, which is the largest chunk here, according to my class-first politics, the most important. Her hatred of banks and CEOs will resonate with the working classes who also hate banks and CEOs.

I'm not as confident on the other 3.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
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I had Bernie at 25% in Feb when he was #1 among declared candidates. I have him at 25% now when he's 2nd/3rd.

The only chance Bernie has to win the nomination and general is activating millions of current non-voters. If he cannot get young people and non-whites out then he loses the nomination. If it's a nomination process dominated by older whites, he loses.

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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted

October debate - will feature more than 10 (most likely, unless 1-2 drop out soon)

November debate - 

  • Polling threshold (must meet one)
    • Four-poll threshold - 3% or more in four qualifying national or single-state poll in Iowa, NH, SC or Nevada (up from 2%)
    • Early state polling - 5% or more in two single state qualifying polls in Iowa, NH, SC or Nevada 
  • Fundraising
    • 165,000 unique donors (up from 130,000)
    • Minimum of 600 from at least 20 states, territories or DC
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sachick

sachick 1189

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

October debate - will feature more than 10 (most likely, unless 1-2 drop out soon)

November debate - 

  • Polling threshold (must meet one)
    • Four-poll threshold - 3% or more in four qualifying national or single-state poll in Iowa, NH, SC or Nevada (up from 2%)
    • Early state polling - 5% or more in two single state qualifying polls in Iowa, NH, SC or Nevada 
  • Fundraising
    • 165,000 unique donors (up from 130,000)
    • Minimum of 600 from at least 20 states, territories or DC

When are we gonna get to debates with like a top 5 -3?

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

October debate - will feature more than 10 (most likely, unless 1-2 drop out soon)

November debate - 

  • Polling threshold (must meet one)
    • Four-poll threshold - 3% or more in four qualifying national or single-state poll in Iowa, NH, SC or Nevada (up from 2%)
    • Early state polling - 5% or more in two single state qualifying polls in Iowa, NH, SC or Nevada 
  • Fundraising
    • 165,000 unique donors (up from 130,000)
    • Minimum of 600 from at least 20 states, territories or DC

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11170

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

I agree about me being very very stupid, so could you please explain it?

Being stupid, and not getting things aren't the same.  I'm sure you're intelligent, but in terms of politics, you seem to be so far over your skis that you zoom right by the obvious.

For example, using identity politics (white liberals) while decrying identity politics.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45491

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

October debate - will feature more than 10 (most likely, unless 1-2 drop out soon)

November debate - 

  • Polling threshold (must meet one)
    • Four-poll threshold - 3% or more in four qualifying national or single-state poll in Iowa, NH, SC or Nevada (up from 2%)
    • Early state polling - 5% or more in two single state qualifying polls in Iowa, NH, SC or Nevada 
  • Fundraising
    • 165,000 unique donors (up from 130,000)
    • Minimum of 600 from at least 20 states, territories or DC

For the unique donors threshold, is that starting over after every debate?  Or is this just overall?

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

No and it shouldn't be because it's fucking stupid.

Actually, though, it has.   The media dug up the bar card in 2019, and there have been many stories about her "struggles" with the identity issue, like:

https://www-politico-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/08/27/native-american-critics-elizabeth-warren-1475903

https://www-washingtonpost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-new-document-is-revealed-warren-struggles-with-questions-of-identity/2019/02/06/bf380538-2a24-11e9-b011-d8500644dc98_story.html

The reality is that Warren has taken plenty of hits on this issue and others, and the reason they haven't sunk her is that she's done a fantastic job beating them back.   She's defeating the negative narratives each day.   

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

This is the demographic of people we need to activate to win 2020...

- young
- non-white
- HS or less
- $75k/yr or less

I think Warren is very well-suited to grab the working class, which is the largest chunk here, according to my class-first politics, the most important. Her hatred of banks and CEOs will resonate with the working classes who also hate banks and CEOs.

I'm not as confident on the other 3.

i understand one of bernie's big pushes is to get out the vote, regardless of who they vote for, which i greatly applaud.  i assume the thought is that the more people who come out to vote, the better chance a dem, any dem really, has to beat trump, so this needs to be a priority for everyone (not just bernie).

my question is this - using current polling, how are the "currently not-likely to vote" people likely to vote, if they were persuaded to get off their asses?

young seems bernie.

non-white seems biden (so far)

not sure about other two.  obviously you mention "working class" and warren.

also do we have any idea what parts of the country they're in?  i know biden is still doing well in the rust-belt and the south.  activating tens of thousands of dem voters in a few key states could really make this a fucking landslide. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted
4 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

For example, using identity politics (white liberals) while decrying identity politics.

Pointing out the existence of identity politics isn't "using" identity politics. Using identity politics would be me saying something like, "As a white person, I am more credible than others on this ..."

Your argument here is basically, "And yet you LIVE in a society."

Yes, I am a white liberal that acknowledges how white liberals are blinded by their privilege and don't recognize that what they see as meritocracy is actually just a system of class and racial dominance that they benefit from.

1 minute ago, Mojo Hand said:

The reality is that Warren has taken plenty of hits on this issue and others, and the reason they haven't sunk her is that she's done a fantastic job beating them back.

Two articles in 9 months doesn't really indicate some larger attempt to push a narrative. She's been handled with kid gloves on this not only by the media at large but by the people running against her. No one has brought it up, even obliquely. So her winning a battle against the pressure she's getting now among Democratic voters/establishment media types is kind of like winning a fight against someone who isn't even fighting you.

If you honestly don't think some no-hope loser candidate couldn't damage Warren tremendously by suicide bombing themselves on-stage with a, "And Senator Warren, you have never apologized properly to the Native American people for lying about your heritage to advance your career." then you're crazy.

I'm not saying it's definite or likely, but it's absolutely possible and we have no idea if she could handle such a direct assault. She does not always bear up well when confronted; she was gobsmacked by luminaries like Charlamagne tha God and Stephen Colbert.

She does super well in those hearings, but that's a heavily scripted and choreographed environment where she has tremendous power. (Oh how I love it when she scolds the most evil men on the planet, though.)

Very unfortunately for us, she is not going to be battle tested on this going into a general election, when everyone will finally start paying attention and not just those of us who are news junkies/partisans and Liz will be facing off against an elite-tier bullying talent who loves nothing more than to cloud every possible issue and sow doubt about everything he can.

22 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

not sure about other two.  obviously you mention "working class" and warren.

also do we have any idea what parts of the country they're in?  i know biden is still doing well in the rust-belt and the south.  activating tens of thousands of dem voters in a few key states could really make this a fucking landslide. 

I think Bernie's a stronger candidate to bring in working class voters than Warren because Bernie is more likely to be a cultural match for them (angry and openly hated by the people the working class hate). Pete and Marianne are absolutely right that people choose a candidate based on personality and values and then policy/ideology follow from that.

Both strong, though.

A Bernie risk is alienating sections of the suburban white professional class, which we absolutely need if we can't get the non-voting class to turn out.
A Warren risk is alienating some of the working class with her professorial style and can-seem-insincere "by gosh golly" delivery, especially if they get a bug in their ear about her lying about her race to get affirmative action points. (Not true, but Trump ain't going to trade in truth.)

As for where the working class is, it's everywhere. That's why the class-first focus is so important, because "working class" isn't just a white guy in a hard hat, it's everyone across the country who isn't in the Top 10%.

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11170

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12 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Pointing out the existence of identity politics isn't "using" identity politics. Using identity politics would be me saying something like, "As a white person, I am more credible than others on this ..."

Your argument here is basically, "And yet you LIVE in a society."

Yes, I am a white liberal that acknowledges how white liberals are blinded by their privilege and don't recognize that what they see as meritocracy is actually just a system of class and racial dominance that they benefit from.

Must be tiring living in your brain.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Uh, you first. 

I can’t.  

The easiest alternative case without going Revolutionary Bernie is that he’s a reform oriented progressive focusing on breaking up the corruption and going after the corporate oligarchs through regulation and anti-trust enforcement.  That would be Warren’s lane, which he clearly is not in. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26277

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The promise of Warren's housing plan in January was great; a huge focus on building a TON of public housing.

Her moves in the last two months have been really really poor. Her goal is to reduce the rate of rent increases by 10% over 3 years. Which is ... what?

And her state's rights argument against national rent control is just garbage. The "what they do down in Washington might work in the BIG CITY but it won't work for GOOD AMERICANS OUT HERE IN THE SMALL TOWNS" thing is white identity politics.

 

The problem with rent control is that it the returns diminish over time in any growing city and the result is a long term loss of affordability that is particularly acute in the range of ~80-120% of MFI, which is where most people are.

The current affordability problem in growing cities in America has two primary causes and rent control makes both a little worse:

 

1) A housing shortage that is usually caused by protectionist zoning codes and

2) Two decades of monetary stimulus intended to prop up/drive up housing values.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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56 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The problem with rent control is that it the returns diminish over time in any growing city and the result is a long term loss of affordability that is particularly acute in the range of ~80-120% of MFI, which is where most people are.

The current affordability problem in growing cities in America has two primary causes and rent control makes both a little worse:

1) A housing shortage that is usually caused by protectionist zoning codes and

2) Two decades of monetary stimulus intended to prop up/drive up housing values.

I absolutely agree with this and rent control in isolation absolutely isn't a solution. You're right.

I think your #1 is THE biggest issue.

And it is specifically addressed in Bernie's "Housing for All" plan. (ctrl-f "zoning" to see those sections specifically, "zoning" is mentioned 14 times)

Warren's housing plan mentions zoning once, and only in the context of how zoning regulations make development more expensive.

Pete's housing plan doesn't mention zoning at all.

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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Posted

Latest Morning Consult poll.  More good news for Warren. 

Check out the gains for Warren as second choice for supporters of other candidates.  She's now passed Bernie as second choice for Biden supporters, and has expanded her lead as second choice for Harris and Pete supporters.   For Harris supporters, second choice is 31% Warren, 18 Biden 14 Bernie.   For Pete, second choice is 30% Warren, 19 Biden 11 Harris. 

Warren is steadily becoming the consensus choice. 

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