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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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American Swindle

American Swindle 102

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Who gives a shit about impeachment.  

Yes, and while we are all paralyzed by the drama of climate change fear, potential impeachment, more war based on BS propaganda, the below gets a micro-blip of coverage:

Quote

U.S. drone strike kills 30 pine nut farm workers in Afghanistan

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-attack-drones-idUSKBN1W40NW

 

 

 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

Posted
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Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I don’t know what to make of Pete.  I’d like to think he’s pulling more from Biden and Sanders voters but I don’t know.  

Based on Jennifer Rubin editorials, Pete absolutely looks like the Biden backup plan that Kamala was supposed to be. 

Pete's numbers in NH have been solid for a while. But yes, he will need Biden to freefall in order to rise in the polls. 

 

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
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Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Another reason for Warren skyrocketing that isn't mentioned very much: I think she's swallowing up a lot of Hillary voters. She's raking it in from all sides of the Democratic Party. 

She’s also getting attacked from all sides. Hillary die hards and Berners, two groups that hate each other with a passion, have the knives out for Warren.  

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

Posted
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Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

She’s also getting attacked from all sides. Hillary die hards and Berners, two groups that hate each other with a passion, have the knives out for Warren.  

Right now, the general public is not seeing any attacks on Elizabeth Warren. It's been pixies and unicorns for 5-6 months. You have to get into Twitter replies to see any Warren negativity. 

But the "attacks" on Liz will be amplified soon, no question. 

 

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Right now, the general public is not seeing any attacks on Elizabeth Warren. It's been pixies and unicorns for 5-6 months. You have to get into Twitter replies to see any Warren negativity. 

The public has heard plenty of attacks on Warren from the president.  His routine is pretty much Pocahontas and Sleepy Joe Biden.  

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

It's been pixies and unicorns for 5-6 months.

The President of the United States has been calling her Pocahontas nearly every week.  

She has scratched and clawed her way from 5% in the polls to front runner on a campaign based around big ideas, raising taxes, and not playing it safe.  

Give credit where it’s due. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

When I say Warren's been drinking Bernie's milkshake, this is what I mean

70% of respondents are over 50.

The olds do not like Bernie and if that's the demographic breakdown of the actual voting population Bernie will be destroyed.

For reference, the 2016 demographic breakdown was 65% of NH primary voters were 45+.

A hopeful sign of that is that youth voter turnout doubled in NH between the 2014 midterms and the 2018 midterms.

But the olds will wreck Bernie if the young people do not show up.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

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2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The President of the United States has been calling her Pocahontas nearly every week.  

She has scratched and clawed her way from 5% in the polls to front runner on a campaign based around big ideas, raising taxes, and not playing it safe.  

Give credit where it’s due. 

Look, Pocahontas doesn't move the needle with D voters which is clear from her poll numbers.  Stop pointing to a Trump insult as proof that Liz is being "attacked". The MSM and social media pundits have overall been very positive with her. And for good reason, as she's positioned herself very well and deftly avoided any potholes so far.

I've said repeatedly she has been running a fantastic campaign. 

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

The MSM and social media pundits have overall been very positive with her.

Sorry but this is a horse shit talking point other campaigns are using as an excuse for their own campaign shortcomings. 

Things I’ve repeatedly heard in the media (CNN and MSNBC specifically) over the last six months.

I’m not sure Elizabeth Warren is likable.

I’m not sure Elizabeth Warren is electable. 

Trump will win 40 states if Warren is the nominee.

Elizabeth Warren is too far to the left.

Elizabeth Warren can’t win over POC. 

Elizabeth Warren is going to take away healthcare coverage from millions of Americans.

 

The media/pundit coverage has been fine though because they concern troll on all the other contenders too.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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11 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

70% of respondents are over 50.

The olds do not like Bernie and if that's the demographic breakdown of the actual voting population Bernie will be destroyed.

For reference, the 2016 demographic breakdown was 65% of NH primary voters were 45+.

A hopeful sign of that is that youth voter turnout doubled in NH between the 2014 midterms and the 2018 midterms.

But the olds will wreck Bernie if the young people do not show up.

 

He's going to be destroyed no matter who shows up

It is important to keep in mind that the race is still very much in flux. Monmouth analysts ran a variety of different likely voter models in addition to the benchmark reported in this release. A model that increases the share of lower propensity voters shows Biden with 27% support, Warren with 25%, Sanders with 14% and Buttigieg with 9%. A model that gives more weight to traditional primary voters shows Warren with 29% support, Biden with 24%, Buttigieg with 11%, and Sanders with 10%.

 

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Look, Pocahontas doesn't move the needle with D voters which is clear from her poll numbers.  Stop pointing to a Trump insult as proof that Liz is being "attacked". The MSM and social media pundits have overall been very positive with her. And for good reason, as she's positioned herself very well and deftly avoided any potholes so far.

I've said repeatedly she has been running a fantastic campaign. 

 

I don't agree with that first part.   I think Trump's attacks on Warren were very damaging — both directly, and from Dems worried about whether she would be vulnerable to Trump's bullying as the nominee.  It's a big part of the "electability" concerns that she's been fighting — including by the media.  Every Dem family member I've talked to about Warren, without exception, has said, "yeah but what about the Native American stuff, won't Trump destroy her with all of that?"  And I've seen tons of "Warren still struggles with identity" and "But is she electable?" concern stories throughout the media.  

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

I don't agree with that first part.   I think Trump's attacks on Warren were very damaging — both directly, and from Dems worried about whether she would be vulnerable to Trump's bullying as the nominee.  It's a big part of the "electability" concerns that she's been fighting — including by the media.  Every Dem family member I've talked to about Warren, without exception, has said, "yeah but what about the Native American stuff, won't Trump destroy her with all of that?"  And I've seen tons of "Warren still struggles with identity" and "But is she electable?" concern stories throughout the media.  

I had the same concerns, as my #1 issue is electability, and they've mostly gone away. I'm not sure if I'll vote for her, but I do like the idea of the left and center-left continuing to coalesce around her so that we avoid a drawn out primary fight. I think she's incredibly smart, effective, and on-brand, and it's going to be hard to make anything stick to her. Especially because she comes across as everyone's ideal badass grandma. That said, we haven't really seen her put on the spot in an "in-the-moment" situation lately, and in the past she's struggled at times with those. I'm sure we're going to see that in some of the debates as the field narrows, but we're still not going to get anything close to the grenades Trump is going to lob at her. And her judgement on the Native American thing was really questionable. She's incredibly tight and on point on the stump, in friendly debates, and with her general brand. But right now she's in boot camp, which is quite different from the war.

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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Posted
2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

He's going to be destroyed no matter who shows up

It is important to keep in mind that the race is still very much in flux. Monmouth analysts ran a variety of different likely voter models in addition to the benchmark reported in this release. A model that increases the share of lower propensity voters shows Biden with 27% support, Warren with 25%, Sanders with 14% and Buttigieg with 9%. A model that gives more weight to traditional primary voters shows Warren with 29% support, Biden with 24%, Buttigieg with 11%, and Sanders with 10%.

 

The proof will be in the pudding.   Either he can inspire the political revolution needed to pass his policies, in which case he'll be swept to the nomination and presidency, or he can't, in which case he'll hit a ceiling.    So far it looks like he's hit a ceiling and lost ground since 2016.  If he doesn't have a revolution behind him, it further supports the notion that we need a pragmatic progressive who can work with whatever situation she steps into. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Sorry but this is a horse shit talking point other campaigns are using as an excuse for their own campaign shortcomings. 

Things I’ve repeatedly heard in the media (CNN and MSNBC specifically) over the last six months.

I’m not sure Elizabeth Warren is likable.

I’m not sure Elizabeth Warren is electable. 

Trump will win 40 states if Warren is the nominee.

Elizabeth Warren is too far to the left.

Elizabeth Warren can’t win over POC. 

Elizabeth Warren is going to take away healthcare coverage from millions of Americans.

 

The media/pundit coverage has been fine though because they concern troll on all the other contenders too.

sheesh, i'm surprised she's still standing.

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I had the same concerns, as my #1 issue is electability, and they've mostly gone away. I'm not sure if I'll vote for her, but I do like the idea of the left and center-left continuing to coalesce around her so that we avoid a drawn out primary fight. I think she's incredibly smart, effective, and on-brand, and it's going to be hard to make anything stick to her. Especially because she comes across as everyone's ideal badass grandma. That said, we haven't really seen her put on the spot in an "in-the-moment" situation lately, and in the past she's struggled at times with those. I'm sure we're going to see that in some of the debates as the field narrows, but we're still not going to get anything close to the grenades Trump is going to lob at her. And her judgement on the Native American thing was really questionable. She's incredibly tight and on point on the stump, in friendly debates, and with her general brand. But right now she's in boot camp, which is quite different from the war.

No doubt about any of this.  The fire will keep getting turned up.   I just bridle at the narrative, often pushed by Bernie supporters to explain their candidate's failure to launch this cycle, that Warren is a creation of fawning media.   There have been negative stories about her in the media for years.  There have been negative stories in 2018 and 2019 and this week.  Yeah, she's also generated a lot of positive media coverage, but it's through her own efforts, which is an essential part of any campaign.   Yeah, she hasn't gotten attacked on a debate stage, but nobody has, aside from the front-runner Biden.   There's no special treatment going on. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted

There are two recent speeches Warren gave that clearly outline her general election strategy against Trumpism (both available on YouTube).  Her Los Angeles rally and her New York City rally.

In her LA speech she didn’t mention Trump’s name once but outlined her three main platform issues in order of priority:

1. Corruption

2. Economy

3. Strengthening American Democracy

These are issues that have broad non-partisan appeal and she sells most of her plans under one of these three umbrellas.  

 

The New York Speech was about Trump.  She started by stating, “Trump is corruption in the flesh”.  This aligns perfectly with her #1 priority.  She doesn’t really acknowledge Trump as a person but as a symptom of America’s most crippling issue.  

She is framing the general election as a vote for or against corruption. She’s going to make the case that she’s the perfect antidote to Trump because she is the anti-corruption candidate. 

This leaves Trump in a perilous position because he is going to have to convince swing voters that either he isn’t corrupt or that Elizabeth Warren is just as corrupt as he is. Pocahontas isn’t going to cut it for Trump either. 

Trump will fear monger on immigrants, socialism, guns, and abortion too but Warren can debate all these issues as good as anyone and stunt their influence. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

She is framing the general election as a vote for or against corruption. She’s going to make the case that she’s the perfect antidote to Trump because she is the anti-corruption candidate. 

This leaves Trump in a perilous position because he is going to have to convince swing voters that either he isn’t corrupt or that Elizabeth Warren is just as corrupt as he is. Pocahontas isn’t going to cut it for Trump either. 

once it becomes clear that she's going to be the nominee, he'll spend the next 10 months trying to get her disapproval rating into the 50's.  that's his entire playbook, and he's basically said as much.

he's gonna need a lot more than "pocahontas" or "socialism" to make a dent.

he's fucked.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted
7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

 

yep, this sounds exactly like something the cnn people would say.

Scaramucci has said this a few times, Bill Maher is where I first heard him say it and Maher repeated the talking point a few week later without any pushback.  

I’m all but certain the mooch has said it on CNN too.

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