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2020 Democratic Nominee


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18 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The original tweet that prompted this was that guy going through those things and then ending by describing it as the Bernie-Warren Wonk War.  So, anyone other than the person that prompted this.

And to each his own, but rather than wonkish, I find Bernie’s detailed policies a lot more naive and disqualifying than Pete’s comments on Kennedy or SCOTUS.   Warren trying to one up as many of them as she can just seems like craven political maneuvering, although I know many here obviously agree with them both.

The author isn't touting it as wonkish seriousness; he's mocking it.

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2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

despite my gigantic brain only being concerned with important things, my opinion of biden is actually lowered because of his F- quality tweeting.   every one of them reads as warmed over corporate consensus. 

Well yeah, because at the end of the day you’re only looking at the net-net effects.  I mean, record profits this year yo!

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58 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The original tweet that prompted this was that guy going through those things and then ending by describing it as the Bernie-Warren Wonk War.  So, anyone other than the person that prompted this.

And to each his own, but rather than wonkish, I find Bernie’s detailed policies a lot more naive and disqualifying than Pete’s comments on Kennedy or SCOTUS.   Warren trying to one up as many of them as she can just seems like craven political maneuvering, although I know many here obviously agree with them both.

 

There's absolutely nothing naive about shifting trillions of dollars of healthcare burden from corporations to taxpayers and expecting the corporations to fill that balance sheet void where an expense used to be with extra salary for their employees. Of course they'll do that. In corporations we trust.

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10 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

guy who mocks it - not serious

guy who mentions little girl getting pony - totally serious, let's give him shit

No, they're both doing the exact same thing:  mocking Sanders/Warren's wonkish reputations by focusing on frivolous things rather than the actual basis for those reputations.  It's the standard "leftist giveaway" narrative.  But whatever you think of their merits, M4A, student debt forgiveness, free higher education, a wealth tax, etc. are serious proposals addressing major issues in our country.   The core is not about one-upping with small numerical differences or giving away ponies. 

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11 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

No, they're both doing the exact same thing:  mocking Sanders/Warren's wonkish reputations by focusing on frivolous things rather than the actual basis for those reputations.  It's the standard "leftist giveaway" narrative.  But whatever you think of their merits, M4A, student debt forgiveness, free higher education, a wealth tax, etc. are serious proposals addressing major issues in our country.   The core is not about one-upping with small numerical differences or giving away ponies. 

if you want to continue using the word "mocking" then that's fine.  i think conflating someone's joke on surly with a politico story or a tweet talking about it is a little silly.

i think the back-and-forth poker game highlighted here is important because it brings attention to important issues and potential solutions.  they're pushing each other and that's a good thing.  having them both in the race is better for these issues, not worse.

anyone taking offense is being too sensitive and missing the point.

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16 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 Looking at Nate’s numbers, he’s trying real hard to make something out of nothing. 

Looking at your post it's pretty clear you didn't read the data. 

See page8 , where total favorability of M4A has slipped from the 60% range to 51% and Public option is sitting at 73%.

 

 

 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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3 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Looking at your post it's pretty clear you didn't read the data. 

See page8 , where total favorability of M4A has slipped from the 60% range to 51% and Public option is sitting at 73%.

 

 

 

My guess is that public sentiment hasn't really shifted that hard in time frame. The numbers are probably moving because the primary and all of the visibility around healthcare is offering clarity on the difference between true M4A and a public option. So there are people who saw "M4A" before and didn't realize it would remove private insurance, etc. who now have a better understanding of the nuances of the various plans and are responding to the polls accordingly.

 

Edited by BradInATX
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My guess is that people are reacting more to the narrative that M4A is a loser in the general.   The election is, first and foremost, about defeating Trump, and the anti-M4A message really ramped up when Warren starting passing Biden in polls.   Overcoming it will be a big test of Warren's leadership. 

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My guess is that people are reacting more to the narrative that M4A is a loser in the general. 

I completely disagree. This trend aligns what what happened when the GOP briefly convinced much of the public that ACA was a full shift to a single government monopsony.

 

I know it’s hard for progressives to accept, but a competitive public option is popular and universal multipayer is popular, but true universal single payer just doesn’t have a lot of popular support .

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2 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

My guess is that people are reacting more to the narrative that M4A is a loser in the general.   The election is, first and foremost, about defeating Trump, and the anti-M4A message really ramped up when Warren starting passing Biden in polls.   Overcoming it will be a big test of Warren's leadership. 

Oh man, that's some cable news level spin there.

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5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I completely disagree. This trend aligns what what happened when the GOP briefly convinced much of the public that ACA was a full shift to a single government monopsony.

 

I know it’s hard for progressives to accept, but a competitive public option is popular and universal multipayer is popular, but true universal single payer just doesn’t have a lot of popular support .

I'm not a Bernie supporter; that's not hard for me to accept at all.  I don't dispute the current polling and support levels.  What I question is the notion that public opinion is static and the result of careful, informed analysis of the options by each American.   I think most people have no clue whether single payer is better than a public option and are defaulting to the least amount of change because change is scary.  When powerful, inspiring voices push M4A, the public gets swept along, and when other powerful voices push back the other way, the public defaults to minimal, incremental disruption. 

But the reason that the M4A brand is so strong as to mislead is that Medicare itself is so popular.  It is mainly fear of the unknown that makes people reluctant to dive in all the way.  That's a real thing that M4A proponents have to deal with, but I don't think the opposition on that basis is written in stone.   Leadership means overcoming those fears and getting people to buy into your vision.  Which is Warren's challenge right now. 

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That’s a good post Mojo- I don’t think the support or opposition to M4A is generally sober or well informed. Rather, I think M4A is a great brand that will come to mean whatever the Democrats do next if they take both houses and the presidency.

 

But I also think that the simple proposition of a public option is a very popular and easy to understand, and the idea of moving everyone away from whatever they have to a single government plan funded by taxes is also easy to understand but less popular, probably in the 45-50% range.

 

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The healthcare debate in this race is a bit ridiculous.  Regardless of plan or details, advocating for a single payer healthcare system should not be a radical position.  I know they’re trying to separate themselves from each other but democrats beating each other up over public option vs single payer seems counterproductive to the overall goal of reducing the costs of healthcare in America. 

Imagine being a voter and thinking, “this candidate is great but they’re just a little too liberal on healthcare for me, I guess I’ll have to vote for the guy trying to kill the ACA and lying about everything 24/7.” 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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5 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

When powerful, inspiring voices push M4A, the public gets swept along, and when other powerful voices push back the other way, the public defaults to minimal, incremental disruption. 

Good thing Elizabeth Warren is such a powerful, inspiring voice who can genuinely connect with the middle class whites in the suburbs and minorities.

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57 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The healthcare debate in this race is a bit ridiculous.  Regardless of plan or details, advocating for a single payer healthcare system should not be a radical position.  I know they’re trying to separate themselves from each other but democrats beating each other up over public option vs single payer seems counterproductive to the overall goal of reducing the costs of healthcare in America. 

Imagine being a voter and thinking, “this candidate is great but they’re just a little too liberal on healthcare for me, I guess I’ll have to vote for the guy trying to kill the ACA and lying about everything 24/7.” 

I think a large percentage of Americans disagree with your premise that a single payer system is not a radical idea. The democrats aren’t beating each other up. That’s another false narrative. One side is being very progressive and one side wants more moderation for the General election. (of course one side is accusing the the other side of being horrible pieces of shit for not being for M4A and therefore they should go join the Republican Party)

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12 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I think a large percentage of Americans disagree with your premise that a single payer system is not a radical idea.

A large percentage of Americans consider an assault weapons ban and being pro-choice radical too.  It doesn’t mean they’re radical positions.

The funny thing is our current healthcare system is comparatively much more radical and nonsensical than a single payer system. 

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We got a black guy named Hussein in there.

Hillary got more votes than any candidate in history.

Yes, Kamala, you can win. I mean, you're not interesting or inspirational or good so you (hopefully) won't win the nomination, but if you win the nomination you've got a clear road to the White House.

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5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

This poll now qualifies Pete for December debate, and Yang, Klobuchar and Tulsi pick up their first qualifying poll for December debate.  Also is Tulsi's 2nd qualifying poll for November. 

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105 days left until NH primary.

My takeaway from the NH poll is perhaps people are beginning to look for an alternative to Biden but their isn't a consensus on the best one yet, at least in NH.  

Bernie's heart attack may have helped him consolidate some support by gaining some high profile endorsements. 

I look forward to media concern trolling of "Has Warren peaked too early?!?!?" which was inevitable at the first indication of her leveling off in some polls.  I don't think she's peaked yet given the deeper polling numbers like "candidates considering", "low unfavorability numbers",  and her growth in support among POC.  

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