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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

By used2b
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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immortal13

immortal13 4,059

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8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So we’re supposed to believe the lady with all the plans, the only candidate to overtake Biden in the polls over the past year, and the one that has never lost an election has terrible political instincts?  Yeah we’re going to need to see how this plays out.  

I hope the bullshit ends for the sake of the movement but someone is going to have to lose eventually. 

Are you ok with her past claims of being native American? Do you believe she truly thought she was?

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,485

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More Info

Black:
Bernie - 56%
Joe - 54%
Liz - 39%
Pete - 17%

Hispanic:
Bernie - 47%
Joe - 37%
Liz - 30%
Pete - 20%

President Trump, unsurprisingly, struggles mightily with both groups. Just 9% of African-Americans and 25% of Hispanics say they'd consider voting for him, with 79% of African-Americans and 62% of Hispanics saying they wouldn’t.

Some things to keep in mind here is that while we all love fighting about the candidates themselves (don't we folks? We love it), the coalitions they are building are profoundly important to winning. We have to get high turnout among non-whites, because white people are Republicans. We need the white proportion to shrink, basically, from the 2016 electorate compared to the 2020.

Bernie is the strongest. Joe close behind him.

Bernie set this campaign up from the jump to be run primarily by women and non-whites. Good luck finding a straight white male Christian in his campaign offices; it's like white genocide in there. You can say it's cynical, and that's totally fine and fair, but 11 months of hardcore minority outreach has transformed his base.

Pete is not a real option if your primary concern is beating Trump. We've all had our fun toying with this cute curiosity, but if your goal is to actually win, put him back in the incubator and lets see what kind of Pokemon he evolves into. (Is that how it works?)

The top 3 have universal name recognition, and Pete doesn't, so you might try to argue that he just needs more time for people to get to know him, but you need to stop saying that now. You don't have a map for him. You don't have a case for him. You just like him, and that's OK, continue to like him but pick a real horse to ride in the meantime. He can be your side piece, but pick someone to marry.

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So we’re supposed to believe the lady with all the plans, the only candidate to overtake Biden in the polls over the past year, and the one that has never lost an election has terrible political instincts?  Yeah we’re going to need to see how this plays out.  

The "never lost an election" thing is laughable, Hugo. She's in Massachusetts and she's in Ted Kennedy's former seat (which she won in 2012). The Republican she took it from (Scott Brown) won it in a special election in 2010 after Kennedy died. He ran against a Democratic woman who ran a laughably terrible campaign.

Then she won re-election. That's it. That's the juggernaut political career of Elizabeth Warren.

The only two people on that stage who could make credible against-the-odds election arguments are Sanders and Klobuchar.

We're already seeing how it plays out. But yeah, we'll all be watching.

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I hope the bullshit ends for the sake of the movement but someone is going to have to lose eventually. 

Serious question: What has the Warren campaign done or said today to try to end the bullshit? I don't keep up with them like you do so I actually have no idea.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90,567

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23 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

i think most everyone on that list would win the popular vote vs trump.

he got 63mm votes in 2016.  maybe that number goes up, but i don't really see how.  hillary got 66mm votes, and people fucking hated her.  i don't see nearly as many "vote against" types in this group.  regardless, everyone who went through the trouble of voting for hillary likely hates trump, and should show up.  about half of america voted in 2016.  that number should go up.

michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, arizona, north carolina, florida.  there's your election.

Yeah, no way it goes up.  We’ve had three years worth of the elderly dying off since then, and that’s a lot of Trumpkins.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90,567

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1 hour ago, immortal13 said:

Are you ok with her past claims of being native American? Do you believe she truly thought she was?

Half the state of Oklahoma claims to be descended from Native Americans.   Given that she was a poor Okie, and based on Okie relatives, I would guess that poor Okies claim it in far greater numbers than the rest of the state.  

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immortal13

immortal13 4,059

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7 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

Imma start negging motherfuckers who keep arguing the Bernie/Liz he said she said. Those assholes didn't lie, they just miscommunicated. CNN sucks as for making it a bigger thing. Liz said, I think you called me....they will hug it out if they are left alone. 

Somebody is lying 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,367

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33 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Both of them look stupid right now. Winner of this fight? Uncle Joe

Well you think Joe is winning anyway but what is the alternative here?  We would be talking more about boring ass Joe Biden?   Seems like Biden has benefited by being in the media spotlight even over the negative stuff because it elevated him.  

Both the Warren and Sanders campaigns are having fundraising surges over this bullshit.  America is really dumb and loves taking sides in these little soap operas.  See also Kavanaugh. 

I’m not sure it helps Biden that much because he’s out of the conversation entirely now and the only thing that could really hurt him is a media blackout while other candidates take the spotlight.  I can see how it’s easy to assume this helps Biden but who knows?

everything is upside down world in Trump’s America 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,367

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1 minute ago, washparkhorn said:

Dems are bad at this. If Trump is re-elected - this was the moment that sealed it for him. 
 

warren and sanders backers need to calm down now. No more woeman- no more snakes. Suicidal tactic spurred by CNN.  

Dude, we are going to have at least a dozen more Trump victory sealing moments.  This is the middle of JANUARY 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,367

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3 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Warren/Sanders Union is essential to beating Trump. That is where the energy is this cycle. Divided they fall. 

One has to bow to the other and that isn’t going to happen.  Both have to expand their base to win and there’s still room to grow for both.  None of the other candidates have as committed supporters.

 There is an outside possibility this ends up being a two way race between Warren and Sanders if Biden collapses.  Of course there’s no evidence of a Biden collapse but everyone paying attention knows he sucks and I think that will be reflected when people start voting. 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,968

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10 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

One has to bow to the other and that isn’t going to happen.  Both have to expand their base to win and there’s still room to grow for both.  None of the other candidates have as committed supporters.

 There is an outside possibility this ends up being a two way race between Warren and Sanders if Biden collapses.  Of course there’s no evidence of a Biden collapse but everyone paying attention knows he sucks and I think that will be reflected when people start voting. 

Point taken but not this day. Dumb move based on the 15% rule. Should have waited until Biden out of it. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,485

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If we want to solve this problem -- and we fucking need to tout de suite so Biden doesn't win and then lose to Trump -- then we need to look at it honestly.

Do you genuinely believe that Bernie is doing something to delay or stop reunification? What are you seeing that I'm not?

He literally tried to shake her hand and said that they shouldn't argue in public. His whole team and wife are trying to brush past it publicly today.

Warren openly tried to escalate it in public and, as far as I can tell, her team has done zero unity messaging today.

It's confusing. It's like a principal too lazy and uninterested to figure out a conflict and just saying, "Ehhh come on you two cut it out!" even though it's just one kid hitting the other. Nothing is resolved except the momentary irritation and the preconditions still just sit there ready to fire up again.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,485

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The problem in two parts...





Interlocking, interconnected teams of establishment actors running campaigns and coordinating with corporate media.

This is poison.

There is deep rot in the Warren campaign that is fucking it up for her and the left. It needs to be rooted out. Whoever worked with CNN on a doomed to fail strategy that ultimately just benefits their interlock clients needs to go.
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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 692

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On 1/14/2020 at 3:49 PM, FondrenRoad said:

If progressives cared about advancing progressive ideas, they'd rally behind a single candidate like the establishment tends to do.  We are going to get Joe Biden, but Joe is only going to win about 40% of the primary vote.  Don't those combined Bernie, Warren, Yang numbers look good enough to win though?

Bernie has a great message, but he is loath to let anyone else carry it.  Perhaps he should have joined the Democratic Party before running in its primary for President.

Then it goes to a brokered convention. What happens then if the progressives, collectively, have the majority? When do the superdelegates swoop in?

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Js1

Js1 87,032

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12 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Then it goes to a brokered convention. What happens then if the progressives, collectively, have the majority? When do the superdelegates swoop in?

40% of the popular vote =/= 40% of the delegates. Remember the 15% threshold for delegates. Especially if Joe is up 20-30 in the Southern primaries 

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burntorangebongos

burntorangebongos 10,809

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37 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

One has to bow to the other and that isn’t going to happen.  Both have to expand their base to win and there’s still room to grow for both.  None of the other candidates have as committed supporters.

 There is an outside possibility this ends up being a two way race between Warren and Sanders if Biden collapses.  Of course there’s no evidence of a Biden collapse but everyone paying attention knows he sucks and I think that will be reflected when people start voting. 

They need to hate fuck and chill already!!!!! Fucking CNN and twitter dweebs for blowing this into epic proportions. I think the Russians have plants in the Bernie Bros and CNN. hahahaha

Liz's campaign peeps were dumb to get pissed about the Bernie canvassers calling her elitist. She doesn't have great political instincts but fuck, she has great vision and policy ideas. Liz!!!!! Fucking get your shit together and get back to a détente with Bernie ASAP. 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13,050

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36 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

She’s a less weird and less incel-y version of Ted Cruz for the left, and she will have the same electoral record as him in a few months.  She’s smart, and she actually has great political instincts in terms of knowing how to position herself on the issues in all the ways her voting base wants at that given moment.  

However, she is also overly lawyerly in all the worst ways, way more transparent at pandering than she thinks, and she does not have very good instincts for how to just deal with people like a normal person.  Like Cruz, I think it ultimately boils down to them overestimating their own intelligence and how skilled they are at manipulating people.  They end up doing cringeworthy, too clever by half things all the time and making mountains out of molehills for the stupidest reasons.  Then they seem completely oblivious to how off-putting it can be to people or why everyone doesn’t just automatically vote for them because they nailed all the talking points of the day.

I'm pro Warren, but this is honestly a good take.

I also agree that Sanders/Warren need to make nice and get back to business. It's politics and January and the Trump campaign has been chugging away since 2016. You can't reach the end zone if you always run to the sidelines. Sometimes you gotta take a deep breath and run the ball up the middle.

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