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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

By used2b
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21054

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This was a solid three person race about a year ago between Biden, Sanders, and Warren.  

The campaigns of Steyer, Bloomberg, Pete, and Amy have done nothing but help Bernie so far by bleeding support from Biden and Warren.  
 

I can’t help but laugh at how this is playing out.

Warren’s campaign was bleeding support before Steyer, Bloomberg, and Amy even became any sort of threat.

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Tom

Tom 2959

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Context: “we need a Secretary of Education who believes in public education” has been probably the most used line in Pete’s stump speech for the last 9-10 months.

 

lolol

 

 

Did Pete copywrite that line?  Because nearly the same thing is said on Warren's website in her public education plan that's been up for who knows how long and she's also been saying it publicly for almost a year.

It's not even a unique quote or phrasing. It's a broad view I'm pretty sure is shared with every Democrat running.  But I guess it belongs to Pete because......I'm drawing a blank here.

Edited by Tom
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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21054

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

Did Pete copywrite that line?  Because nearly the same thing is said on Warren's website in her public education plan that's been up for who knows how long and she's also been saying it publicly for almost a year.

It's not even a unique quote or phrasing. It's a broad view I'm pretty sure is shared with every Democrat running.  But I guess it belongs to Pete because......I'm drawing a blank here.

I’m just laughing at his facial expressions.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21054

Posted
Posted

So is this going to morph back to a Bernie-Biden race in a couple of weeks?  Looks like it's possible Biden wins SC by 5-10 points, which will give him momentum.  I'm assuming Pete, Amy, and Warren drop out shortly after Super Tuesday (or maybe before then). 

Hard to wrap my head around Biden surging since he's been struggling with fundraising for a while. I guess if it becomes a 2 or 3 person race he could see more donations. 

Such a weird fucking primary. 

 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45742

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

So is this going to morph back to a Bernie-Biden race in a couple of weeks?  Looks like it's possible Biden wins SC by 5-10 points, which will give him momentum.  I'm assuming Pete, Amy, and Warren drop out shortly after Super Tuesday (or maybe before then). 

Hard to wrap my head around Biden surging since he's been struggling with fundraising for a while. I guess if it becomes a 2 or 3 person race he could see more donations. 

Such a weird fucking primary. 

 

If no one drops out before Super Tuesday, it's almost guaranteed that Bernie wins.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13224

Posted
Posted

Every time Bernie offers stickers I get sad because I'm already maxed out and I can't get the new stickers :(

Like, I want this sticker. But I could only get it if I get a friend or relative to donate and then give them the money but I would never do that because it's a federal crime and it's unethical and bad.

That's an awesome sticker, though.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21054

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

If no one drops out before Super Tuesday, it's almost guaranteed that Bernie wins.

Maybe. But if Biden has a solid victory in SC and gains momentum, he should put up solid numbers in Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina and Georgia. 

Klobuchar won't gain much traction in any state outside of Minnesota. 

Buttigieg could do reasonably well in Utah, Colorado, Maine. But he won't gobble up many delegates anywhere. 

Warren looks strong in Cali and Massachusetts. Maybe others as I haven't been paying close attention. 

Obviously Bloomberg could have a massive effect, but I'm still not sure what his actually vote results will be. Steyer spent a shit ton in Nevada and had nothing to show for it, and his number might be overrepresented in SC as well, which would be good news for Biden.

 

Bernie will definitely have the most delegates after Super Tuesday, the question is by how much over Joe. And if it were a clear Bernie-Biden battle after Super Tuesday, that could make things interesting. 

 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21054

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Biden will probably get a little SC bump but you're right in that he has a huge fundraising problem. Bernie raised over a million dollars during the debate last night, Biden apparently only 250k.

Yeah, that's a big issue. 

But post-Super Tuesday if Biden is the clear #2 in delegates behind Bernie and others drop out, the money will start to come in for Biden. 

The biggest factor/unknown is Bloomberg's results from Super Tuesday. 

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, 6th Street said:

The damage to large cap tech, healthcare, and energy alone would be a roughly 50-100bps impact to GDP growth. 

Got it - stock market valuation is more important to you than saving 68,000 lives and $450 billion a year. 

Just a thought, you could move your assets from those that require corporate welfare to pay for their negative externalities. Getting fat off of corporate socialism will not last forever. Good luck!

 

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16616

Posted
Posted

I don't think anyone drops out after SC unless it's Biden due to a disastrous result - i.e. third or worse.

Super Tuesday is three days later. No reason not to see how it plays out. After that, I expect some dropouts. Namely, Pete and Klobuchar. Biden at least has an avenue to success in the south, Warren just brought in a mountain of cash and looks to get delegates in CA and TX, and Bloomberg DGAF. Klobs and Pete don't have the resources and likely won't fare as well as those three.

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Longhorn94

Longhorn94 2458

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Interesting.  Why no Bernie or Pete?

I don't agree with Bernie's approach, philosophy, background, personality, pretty much everything about him except a few of his policies that he shares with Warren. But Warren comes at those policies from a capitalistic perspective. If I gave Warren everything she wanted, we wind up in a totally different place than where we would be if Bernie could have everything he wants.

Pete - no experience - life or political, no anything except a lot of snark and a really off-putting elitist, spoiled, bratty personality. 

This election is not about policies for me. Its about ethics, morals, experience, leadership. And I think Warren wins on all of those. And I think we would be fine with Biden, Bloomberg or Klobuchar as well. They are all good people with good experience. 

Of course, I would vote for either over Trump. But I would prefer not to if given the choice.

Edited by Longhorn94
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13224

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm just starting to think this won't be a cakewalk for Bernie, and if that's the case, Biden would be his primary competition.

It was never going to be a cakewalk. His opponents aren't dumb.

I don't think Bernie is going to do well in SC. I think he finishes 3rd behind Biden (who I think will in by 10+) and Steyer. He'll maintain the popular vote and delegate lead, but the current air of invincibility with shatter.

1 minute ago, Longhorn94 said:

I don't agree with Bernie's approach, philosophy, background, personality, pretty much everything about him except a few of his policies that he shares with Warren. But Warren comes at those policies from a capitalistic perspective. If I gave Warren everything she wanted, we wind up in a totally different place than where we would be if Bernie could have everything he wants.

Agreed 100%, which is why Sanders is the clear choice for me and it's not even close.

The obsession with being performatively capitalist is odd. It's like people who are loyal to Chevy or Ford and don't actually care about performance, reliability, or value.

giphy.gif

The goal is to have a society where people are motivated to innovate and work (not for its own sake, but for the betterment of mankind), everyone is provided for, and we live in peace and security, right?

What do the labels we place on things actually matter?

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Longhorn94

Longhorn94 2458

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

It was never going to be a cakewalk. His opponents aren't dumb.

I don't think Bernie is going to do well in SC. I think he finishes 3rd behind Biden (who I think will in by 10+) and Steyer. He'll maintain the popular vote and delegate lead, but the current air of invincibility with shatter.

Agreed 100%, which is why Sanders is the clear choice for me and it's not even close.

The obsession with being performatively capitalist is odd. It's like people who are loyal to Chevy or Ford and don't actually care about performance, reliability, or value.

giphy.gif

The goal is to have a society where people are motivated to innovate and work (not for its own sake, but for the betterment of mankind), everyone is provided for, and we live in peace and security, right?

What do the labels we place on things actually matter?

Agreed! Capitalism when married with progressive democracy is the best recipe to motivate and inspire people to innovate and work. It's the secret recipe in America's success. We do not have that right now. Capitalism has to be held in check by a democracy that includes regulations and freedom and a court system, etc.. That's what Warren wants.

Socialism/Democratic Socialism/Communism etc (not that these are all the same) do not have the same sort of mechanisms in place to inspire or incentivize innovation, invention or entrepreneurialism.

My guess is we agree on more than we disagree on but just come at it from different starting points and maybe end at different points as well with lots of overlap in the middle. 

Edited by Longhorn94
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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15092

Posted
Posted

Ok I’m typing a thought that I previously would not have typed until now. This is a big change for me and I realize many of you have already been thinking this for a long time. So, sorry I’m late to the party.

If Bernie holds off Bloomberg and Biden, and gets the nomination, I think he beats Trump. I know the polls have indicated this for a long time, but I always felt those polls weren’t reflective of people’s true voting plans, just like 2016. People don’t like to admit they would vote for Trump. I also thought Trump would chew him up during the race to November over the socialist label, and scare enough swing voters.

Why have I changed my mind? Trump is so bad, so despicable, and so hated, I don’t think the swing voters can take him for four more years. The grift. The lying. The embarrassment on the world stage. The stupidity. The dangerous actions like the assassination of the Iranian general. The dumb Syria move. The indifference to Ukraine. The alignment with Moscow. The embarrassing interaction with North Korea. The dumb tariffs. The irresponsible tax cut. His fundamentally bad moral character. His racism. Etc, etc, etc. It’s just too much.

So, enough will swing with Bernie.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45742

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Ok I’m typing a thought that I previously would not have typed until now. This is a big change for me and I realize many of you have already been thinking this for a long time. So, sorry I’m late to the party.

If Bernie holds off Bloomberg and Biden, and gets the nomination, I think he beats Trump. I know the polls have indicated this for a long time, but I always felt those polls weren’t reflective of people’s true voting plans, just like 2016. People don’t like to admit they would vote for Trump. I also thought Trump would chew him up during the race to November over the socialist label, and scare enough swing voters.

Why have I changed my mind? Trump is so bad, so despicable, and so hated, I don’t think the swing voters can take him for four more years. The grift. The lying. The embarrassment on the world stage. The stupidity. The dangerous actions like the assassination of the Iranian general. The dumb Syria move. The indifference to Ukraine. The alignment with Moscow. The embarrassing interaction with North Korea. The dumb tariffs. The irresponsible tax cut. His fundamentally bad moral character. His racism. Etc, etc, etc. It’s just too much.

So, enough will swing with Bernie.

We may have no choice but to walk this road.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13224

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Ok I’m typing a thought that I previously would not have typed until now. This is a big change for me and I realize many of you have already been thinking this for a long time. So, sorry I’m late to the party.

If Bernie holds off Bloomberg and Biden, and gets the nomination, I think he beats Trump. I know the polls have indicated this for a long time, but I always felt those polls weren’t reflective of people’s true voting plans, just like 2016. People don’t like to admit they would vote for Trump. I also thought Trump would chew him up during the race to November over the socialist label, and scare enough swing voters.

Why have I changed my mind? Trump is so bad, so despicable, and so hated, I don’t think the swing voters can take him for four more years. The grift. The lying. The embarrassment on the world stage. The stupidity. The dangerous actions like the assassination of the Iranian general. The dumb Syria move. The indifference to Ukraine. The alignment with Moscow. The embarrassing interaction with North Korea. The dumb tariffs. The irresponsible tax cut. His fundamentally bad moral character. His racism. Etc, etc, etc. It’s just too much.

So, enough will swing with Bernie.

giphy.gif

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gmr548

gmr548 16616

Posted
Posted




If Bernie holds off Bloomberg and Biden, and gets the nomination, I think he beats Trump. I know the polls have indicated this for a long time, but I always felt those polls weren’t reflective of people’s true voting plans, just like 2016. People don’t like to admit they would vote for Trump. I also thought Trump would chew him up during the race to November over the socialist label, and scare enough swing voters.


I think it's worth noting that the polls didn't miss that badly in 2016. The national polls conducted in the week leading up to the election averaged roughly Clinton +3 and it ended up Clinton +2. That's not a crazy miss. It's just not a big enough lead for a D to be supremely confident given the GOP advantage in the electoral college. The media and plenty of people, myself included, overlooked that and interpreted her narrow but consistent lead as meaning a Clinton win was highly likely. Hindsight is 20/20. The stars aligned for Trump and he squeaked by with historically tight margins in battleground states with that +2 margin.

Bernie's h2h RCP average vs Trump is +4.5 for polls conducted this month. Obviously that can change in nine months but if that were to come to pass it's very difficult to imagine Trump carrying the three critical midwestern states that won him the election.

It's also worth noting that there were a pretty high number of undecideds and they broke hard for Trump. I haven't seen data on that yet but I'd be pretty surprised if 10+ percent of voters were undecided on Trump vs anyone at thus point. Everyone knows him and everyone's got an opinion on him. The same is true of Sanders to a large extent and he's still consistently winning in polls.
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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31536

Posted
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Ok I’m typing a thought that I previously would not have typed until now. This is a big change for me and I realize many of you have already been thinking this for a long time. So, sorry I’m late to the party.

If Bernie holds off Bloomberg and Biden, and gets the nomination, I think he beats Trump. I know the polls have indicated this for a long time, but I always felt those polls weren’t reflective of people’s true voting plans, just like 2016. People don’t like to admit they would vote for Trump. I also thought Trump would chew him up during the race to November over the socialist label, and scare enough swing voters.

Why have I changed my mind? Trump is so bad, so despicable, and so hated, I don’t think the swing voters can take him for four more years. The grift. The lying. The embarrassment on the world stage. The stupidity. The dangerous actions like the assassination of the Iranian general. The dumb Syria move. The indifference to Ukraine. The alignment with Moscow. The embarrassing interaction with North Korea. The dumb tariffs. The irresponsible tax cut. His fundamentally bad moral character. His racism. Etc, etc, etc. It’s just too much.

So, enough will swing with Bernie.

I feel this way and the only thing I like about Bernie other than he's not Trump is that he's not the same ol shit.

I don't like his shit, I don't trust where it comes from, and I think ultimately he's a quiet demagogue.  He won't get to enact hardly any of his shit, but it might lead to something interesting.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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