2020 Democratic Nominee

[bad_teammate 13224]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

you described sanders supporters and you broke them into two different groups once bernie drops out (the topic today): those who will fall in line, and those who won't.

what is your definition of what this means?

I was responding to a post about "another few months of rape allegations, dementia allegations, etc".

Falling in line would be shutting up about Biden or even being positive about Biden.
Not falling in line would be continuing to explore uncomfortable truths about Biden.

[henrygandorf 29194]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I was responding to a post about "another few months of rape allegations, dementia allegations, etc".

Falling in line would be shutting up about Biden or even being positive about Biden.
Not falling in line would be continuing to explore uncomfortable truths about Biden.

thank you for clarifying.

[sccane92 16]

5 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Yes I would think dropping out and not being personally responsible for tens of thousands of Coronavirus deaths of people who had to trudge to the polls to vote might make him slightly more sympathetic to the masses.

I would rep you again if I could.

[bad_teammate 13224]

Joe Biden is probably a rapist.

Tara Reade's interview with DemocracyNow from yesterday is a gut punch.

And I handed him the gym bag.

And then he — it was one, as I described, fluid moment. He was talking to me, and he said some things that I don’t recall. And I was up against the wall. And he — I remember the coldness of the wall. And I remember his hands underneath my blouse and underneath my skirt, and his fingers penetrating me as he was trying to kiss me and I was pulling away. And he pulled back, and he said, “Come on, man. I heard you liked me.” But he was angry. It was like a tight voice. And he tended to smile when he was angry. And he isn’t like the Uncle Joe like everybody talks about now. He was younger. He was my dad’s age at that time and very strong. And he looked insulted and angry. And I remember feeling like I had done something wrong when he said that statement. And then I was standing there when he said — he was still near me. He said — pointed his finger and said, “You’re nothing to me. You’re nothing.” And he walked away.

And I don’t remember exactly where I went after. I think I went to the restroom to clean up, but I don’t remember precisely. The next memory I have is sitting on the cold stairs, on the Russell Building back stairs, where the big windows are. And I remember just my whole body shaking. And I remember knowing that — knowing that I had made him angry and that my career was probably over. And I didn’t comply. And I didn’t comply when I was asked to serve drinks at a cocktail party for donors, because, apparently, Joe Biden said, according to a legislative staffer, that I had pretty legs, and he thought I was pretty, and I should serve the drinks. And my supervisor had encouraged me to do so, and I did not. So, sitting on those stairs, the reality hit me.

The next thing I remember was that night and talking to my mom, and she was like, “You need to file a police report. It’s a sexual assault.” And I didn’t think of it as sexual assault, and I didn’t really understand. And I was trying to just get over the shock of it, because I looked up to him. He was supposed to be a champion of women. And I was so thrilled to be at that office and so honored, and it shattered my life and changed the trajectory of my whole career and life. And I lost my job after I complained, and I was fired.

[Hank Kingsley 21028]

BREAKING: Bernie's press secretary just posted proof that Bernie can beat Trump with a NYT op-ed from...late February, a day before the South Carolina primary. 

 

[bad_teammate 13224]

The premise of that argument is that Bernie has general election strength because he can bring in the youth and Latino votes.

-----------------------------------
In addition to the polling data about how voters might act in the future, there is now the much more valuable information of actual voter behavior in the first three nominating contests, in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. It is not just the fact that Mr. Sanders won the popular vote in all three states, it is how he won that portends hidden and underappreciated general election strength.

Exit polls and precinct analyses show that Mr. Sanders runs strongest with some of the most overlooked and undervalued sectors of the population — young people and Latinos in particular. In all three early states, he received twice as much support from voters under 30 than his closest competitor. In Nevada, he received about 70 percent of the vote in the most heavily Latino precincts.

Notably, the expanding sectors of the population are much more progressive and pro-Democratic than their aging and white counterparts. Mrs. Clinton defeated Mr. Trump by nearly 20 points among voters under 30, and the anti-Republican tilt of that demographic was even more pronounced in 2018, when 67 percent of them voted Democratic, 35 points more than the number who voted Republican. As for Latinos, nearly two-thirds of that population consistently votes Democratic.

The implications of these developments are most significant in the specific states where the election will be most fiercely fought. In Michigan and Wisconsin, which were decided in 2016 by roughly 11,000 and 22,700 votes respectively, close to a million young people have since turned 18. Beyond the Midwestern trio of states, the demographic revolution has even more transformative potential. Mr. Trump won Arizona, for example, by 91,000 votes, and 160,000 Latinos have turned 18 in that state since then.
-----------------------------------

This still holds up.

 

[HenryJames 66157]

[BradInATX 9208]

17 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The implications of these developments are most significant in the specific states where the election will be most fiercely fought. In Michigan and Wisconsin, which were decided in 2016 by roughly 11,000 and 22,700 votes respectively, close to a million young people have since turned 18. Beyond the Midwestern trio of states, the demographic revolution has even more transformative potential. Mr. Trump won Arizona, for example, by 91,000 votes, and 160,000 Latinos have turned 18 in that state since then.
-----------------------------------

This still holds up.

 

Which is exactly why Bernie dominated Biden in the Michigan and Arizona primaries, amirite?

Honestly though, this through should just end with the post above mine.

Edited April 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[Hank Kingsley 21028]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

The premise of that argument is that Bernie has general election strength because he can bring in the youth and Latino votes.

-----------------------------------
In addition to the polling data about how voters might act in the future, there is now the much more valuable information of actual voter behavior in the first three nominating contests, in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. It is not just the fact that Mr. Sanders won the popular vote in all three states, it is how he won that portends hidden and underappreciated general election strength.

Exit polls and precinct analyses show that Mr. Sanders runs strongest with some of the most overlooked and undervalued sectors of the population — young people and Latinos in particular. In all three early states, he received twice as much support from voters under 30 than his closest competitor. In Nevada, he received about 70 percent of the vote in the most heavily Latino precincts.

Notably, the expanding sectors of the population are much more progressive and pro-Democratic than their aging and white counterparts. Mrs. Clinton defeated Mr. Trump by nearly 20 points among voters under 30, and the anti-Republican tilt of that demographic was even more pronounced in 2018, when 67 percent of them voted Democratic, 35 points more than the number who voted Republican. As for Latinos, nearly two-thirds of that population consistently votes Democratic.

The implications of these developments are most significant in the specific states where the election will be most fiercely fought. In Michigan and Wisconsin, which were decided in 2016 by roughly 11,000 and 22,700 votes respectively, close to a million young people have since turned 18. Beyond the Midwestern trio of states, the demographic revolution has even more transformative potential. Mr. Trump won Arizona, for example, by 91,000 votes, and 160,000 Latinos have turned 18 in that state since then.
-----------------------------------

This still holds up.

 

Bernie does do well with young people and Latinos, both are very important. The problem is he does terribly with voters 50 yo+, and they are a much larger group of dependable voters.  

Also that article mentions Bernie's strength in Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe Biden won literally every single county in Michigan over Bernie. And holds a 25+ point lead in Wisconsin in the latest poll there. 

The argument for Bernie includes the idea that older Democrats would fall in line for him in the GE, but Bernie supporters argue that Biden won't necessarily get their vote .

It's all very stupid.  And doesn't hold up at all. 

 

 

[Incredulity 11682]

11 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Vanderbilt would be the best representative of the SEC in the college football playoff, since losing a bunch of contests by 25 points is obviously the telltale sign of a powerhouse just waiting for their shot on the big stage.

Why do you hate engineering?

[bad_teammate 13224]

Bernie does do well with young people and Latinos, both are very important. The problem is he does terribly with voters 50 yo+, and they are a much larger group of dependable voters.  
Also that article mentions Bernie's strength in Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe Biden won literally every single county in Michigan over Bernie. And holds a 25+ point lead in Wisconsin in the latest poll there. 
The argument for Bernie includes the idea that older Democrats would fall in line for him in the GE, but Bernie supporters argue that Biden won't necessarily get their vote .
It's all very stupid.  And doesn't hold up at all. 
 
 

You are conflating Sanders v Biden with Sanders v Trump.

These are different concepts. You can't map the primary and the general, otherwise you'd end up arguing that Trump would beat Warren 90-10.

[Hank Kingsley 21028]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

You are conflating Sanders v Biden with Sanders v Trump.

These are different concepts. You can't map the primary and the general, otherwise you'd end up arguing that Trump would beat Warren 90-10.

I have actual voting results on my side in this argument. You don't. 

Sanders beating Trump completely hinges on 50+ year old "establishment" Democrats falling in line and voting for Bernie. Yet the argument from Berners is that Biden can't count on getting votes from Sander's base therefore he'll lose to Trump. It's all of a bunch of bullshit.

When Biden literally wins every county in Michigan over Bernie, what is the argument for Bernie being a better option vs. Trump in Michigan? 

 

 

[Hank Kingsley 21028]

In a general election vs. Trump, I would argue that anyone that voted for a Dem should 100% vote for the eventual D nominee. If it was Bernie, everyone fucking vote for him. If it's Biden, everyone fucking vote for him. 

There will be hurt feelings. There will be people that complain that it isn't fair or something. Grow the fuck up. Unless Biden literally dies in the next few weeks, Bernie lost. It's over.Go to the polls in November, vote Biden, and then freely bitch about whatever happens afterwards. 

 

 

[bad_teammate 13224]

Sanders beating Trump completely hinges on 50+ year old "establishment" Democrats falling in line and voting for Bernie. Yet the argument from Berners is that Biden can't count on getting votes from Sander's base therefore he'll lose to Trump. It's all of a bunch of bullshit

The 50+ crowd are far more reliable voters than the youth, Latinos, and working poor.

It would be much easier for Sanders to win over a very reliable voting base than for Biden to win over a very fickle one.

Sanders would have to reassure the olds that Democratic Socialism wouldn't hurt them. Biden has to reassure the youth/Latinos/working poor that he will help them.

While both difficult, one of those sounds more likely than the other.

Biden's victories over Sanders are meaningful, of course, but they don't tell the whole story.

Fall in line! speech

Who are you talking to? I mean that both in the literal sense but also what audience needs to be reached and does that kind of speech make sense in reaching them?

[burntorangebongos 10752]

@tantric superman So I am curious. You have ugh'd at the thought of Abrams as a running mate a few times but have never elaborated as far as I've seen. If you have, I missed it.  What about her politics or discourse bothers you? Or is it just a straight up misogyny thing? Does she have vocal fry or something like that? Too meaty.....split teeth? 

I find her to be very capable of delivering a message and passionate against voter suppression. Her ability  to communicate in very simple terms why it is being used as a tool of the very few to hold onto power is stunning. Here she is explaining why we the people should care. I'm not sure you can embed tweets into a PM so I am sorry for the call out but it isn't intended as a shaming one since misogyny is real and you've been willing to acknowledge yours before. Thanks in advance.

 

[Chuckie Finster 22722]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

 

The 50+ crowd are far more reliable voters than the youth, Latinos, and working poor.

It would be much easier for Sanders to win over a very reliable voting base than for Biden to win over a very fickle one.

Sanders would have to reassure the olds that Democratic Socialism wouldn't hurt them. Biden has to reassure the youth/Latinos/working poor that he will help them.

While both difficult, one of those sounds more likely than the other.

Biden's victories over Sanders are meaningful, of course, but they don't tell the whole story.



Who are you talking to? I mean that both in the literal sense but also what audience needs to be reached and does that kind of speech make sense in reaching them?

 

It's a dark day when b_t reverts to the "Look, I know more people want Biden to be President, but us Bernie voters are really stubborn so gimme gimme gimme" argument.

Also, maybe I've missed it, but have we had b_t's take on the downballot effect between Bernie vs. Biden?

Edited April 2, 2020 by Chuckie Finster

[Fozzz 152]

11 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

@tantric superman So I am curious. You have ugh'd at the thought of Abrams as a running mate a few times but have never elaborated as far as I've seen. If you have, I missed it.  What about her politics or discourse bothers you? Or is it just a straight up misogyny thing? Does she have vocal fry or something like that? Too meaty.....split teeth? 

I find her to be very capable of delivering a message and passionate against voter suppression. Her ability  to communicate in very simple terms why it is being used as a tool of the very few to hold onto power is stunning. Here she is explaining why we the people should care. I'm not sure you can embed tweets into a PM so I am sorry for the call out but it isn't intended as a shaming one since misogyny is real and you've been willing to acknowledge yours before. Thanks in advance.

 

Stacey is at least honest about being in this for no reason other than making money.

Quote

“I’m not going to do class warfare; I want to be wealthy,” she tells the far-from-wealthy crowd at the Fair Fight rally. 

https://www.thecut.com/2019/03/stacey-abrams-whats-next.html

[bad_teammate 13224]

Where's the "so gimme gimme gimme" part of my post? In my mind, this has been functionally over since the evening of Super Tuesday.

The purpose of a primary is to pick who the Democratic primary voters want, which is not the same thing as picking the most likely general election winner. Those things have connections, but it's not some kind of obvious 1:1.

I wouldn't even argue personally that Bernie is significantly more electable than Biden in a general election, but a solid case could be made based on voting bases and it's not absurd to think someone other than the primary winner could win the general.

I think Bernie would've been a stronger candidate against Trump in 2016. I think Jackson would have been a stronger candidate against Reagan in '84 AND HW Bush in '88. I think Dean would've been stronger against W in '04. And we could go on and on.

[burntorangebongos 10752]

46 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Stacey is at least honest about being in this for no reason other than making money.

https://www.thecut.com/2019/03/stacey-abrams-whats-next.html

Thanks for this article about her. I haven't read it all but I am really impressed by her by what I have read so far.  And you took her quote way out of context, Rocko.

From the article:

Abrams ran on unapologetically left-for-Georgia stances on gun control, criminal-justice reform, health care, and education. But her progressivism isn’t completely in sync with today’s cutting-edge policy ideas — she’s not a socialist or even a democratic socialist. Yes, she talks forcefully about the chasm of economic inequality in the United States, the moral bankruptcy of a system that treats poor people as if they don’t deserve the dignity of health care or a functional social safety net. During a Q&A after a Fair Fight rally in Albany, Georgia, Abrams tore into what she says is the underlying message of state Republicans’ opposition to Medicaid expansion: “If you’re too poor to get health insurance, it’s your fault. That is not true, and that is not right … We live in a state that has a minimum wage of $5.15 an hour.”

But while Abrams supports raising the minimum wage to about $15 an hour in cities like Atlanta, she’d stop short of a statewide increase, explaining that Georgia’s history of resistance to unions has kept wages so low that a blanket hike would be too much of a shock to the economy.

“I’m not going to do class warfare; I want to be wealthy,” she tells the far-from-wealthy crowd at the Fair Fight rally. “You’ve probably got aspirations about that too.” Many in the room nod in recognition.

[bad_teammate 13224]

What does that context change?

[burntorangebongos 10752]

She said her aspiration aloud and acknowledged that class warfare isn't her gig. Bernie made money on his book and no one begrudges him for that. No one should begrudge Stacey for earning money using her myriad of talents. She is no more in it for just the money than Bernie.

She could be laser focused on just that but she spends time to explain what creates the class disparity and works to show how to repair it, via getting out the vote. That  is not a little endeavor. It is a long game strategy and very hard work. Hell, it tanked Bernie because he couldn't do it. 

 

[bad_teammate 13224]

She directly connects opposition to "class warfare" with her own personal desire to be wealthy, meaning she wants class disparity and she wants to be on the wealthy side of it. Which is fine with most people. She is actually in the majority for wanting to maintain an economically-disparate class system and be on the winning side of it. She's a very traditional Clintonian Democrat.

In fact, this is what makes Abrams so attractive to the corporatist center. She wants to drive up turnout among reliable Democratic voters while assuring everyone that she has no desire to threaten the economically oppressive system the donor class feeds off of. It's the center/center-right Democrat promise, "I will soften the sharper edges of crushing poverty, but I'm not coming for your exorbitant privilege. In fact, I want to join you in it."

"No other reason" is an exaggeration, but I get Fozzz's point where most will work very hard not to see it.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

41 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

she wants class disparity and she wants to be on the wealthy side of it. . . .  She . . . want to maintain an economically-disparate class system and be on the winning side of it.

yeah, that's definitely what she was saying.

Edited April 2, 2020 by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?
bracket s closed bracket does weird things to posts

[burntorangebongos 10752]

She seems like Pete but she isn't. She isn't Clintonian, she is more like Obama. A moderate democrat who also wasn't about class warfare either. In no way was he as big a grifter as the Clintons. I haven't read the full article but I find her promising. The fact that she is practical may be off putting to extreme progressives but I don't have an issue with that. It is the naked ambition that I find fascinating. It was off putting in Pete for me but I'm not yet put off by her for it. Something seems genuine for me, but I don't know why.

Anyway, you aren't Tantric and I am more interested in his Ugh than yours. He is honest about his misogyny whereas you are not. 

[bad_teammate 13224]

14 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

yeah, that's definitely what she was saying.

Assuming this is sarcasm, what do you actually disagree with? She opposes raising the minimum wage for poor workers.

She wants increased voting, which is great.
She wants to soften the edges of poverty, which is fine.

If I'm wrong about her view of economic policy then I'm happy to learn more about her, but nothing I read in that profile makes me think she has a policy worldview that would dramatically impact the wealth distribution of this nation. She looks like a traditional Democrat to me which I can't bring myself to give a shit about.

The identity signifiers don't mean anything to me.

12 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

She seems like Pete but she isn't. She isn't Clintonian, she is more like Obama. A moderate democrat who also wasn't about class warfare either. In no way was he as big a grifter as the Clintons. I haven't read the full article but I find her promising. The fact that she is practical may be off putting to extreme progressives but I don't have an issue with that. It is the naked ambition that I find fascinating. It was off putting in Pete for me but I'm not yet put off by her for it. Something seems genuine for me, but I don't know why.

Anyway, you aren't Tantric and I am more interested in his Ugh than yours. He is honest about his misogyny whereas you are not. 

I read the full article, and her dorky ambition is just as off-putting to me with her as it is with Pete.

I don't trust people who grow up thinking of themselves as destined to be in control of others.

[henrygandorf 29194]

convention pushed to aug 17th.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/02/2020-dnc-milwaukee-pushed-back-mid-august-amid-pandemic/5111822002/

[Hank Kingsley 21028]

Good (but really long) article and Twitter thread here: 

 

[Rougarou 594]

I'm not a political junkie like you nerds, but when I traveled pre-covid, I would always watch CNN in hotel rooms or have it on in the background (I cut the cord 4 years ago and haven't had a squakbox like experience at home since), and I remember at one point thinking "Wow Bernie is gonna win this thing". What a difference just a few months makes.

[bad_teammate 13224]

Just like he did before Florida, Joe is saying it's safe to go out voting on Tuesday.

Bernie is, rightly, calling for postponement.

After Florida, poll workers were infected and people are going to die because of it.

Here we go again.

#Leadership

[Storm the Field 5300]

This primary is no more. It has ceased to be. It has shuffled off the mortal coil and joined the choir invisible.

[bad_teammate 13224]

Biden led the entire damned way in terms of nationwide polling. Warren got close very very briefly and Sanders creeped slightly over him for about 2-3 weeks. Other than, it's been the Biden show.

Bernie couldn't ever beat Biden on Biden's terms. The only path for him was to forge an entirely new path and it didn't happen. Shooters shoot.

Biden owes Clyburn a lot.

[bad_teammate 13224]

Our leadership, from local to nation, Democrat to Republican, is sick in the head.

[Chuckie Finster 22722]

Just like he did before Florida, Joe is saying it's safe to go out voting on Tuesday.
Bernie is, rightly, calling for postponement.
After Florida, poll workers were infected and people are going to die because of it.
Here we go again.
#Leadership

Yes, this would be postponed in a perfect world. But now that it is clear that it won’t be, how many people are going to die because Bernie won’t drop out of an unwinnable race?

[Henry Hill 3156]

Get that rational talk out of here.

[bad_teammate 13224]

Yes, this would be postponed in a perfect world. But now that it is clear that it won’t be, how many people are going to die because Bernie won’t drop out of an unwinnable race?

Bernie is doing zero GOTV, all his fundraising is for COVID charities, he's telling states to delay, and his surrogates are telling people to stay home.

Bernie can't cancel or postpone these votes, which are not just presidential ballots (which you would already know if you are a voter).

So you're cool with the Democratic Party holding lives hostage to try and shame Bernie into dropping out?

[bad_teammate 13224]

Also, it's not unwinnable. Math is real.

[Chuckie Finster 22722]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Bernie is doing zero GOTV, all his fundraising is for COVID charities, he's telling states to delay, and his surrogates are telling people to stay home.

Bernie can't cancel or postpone these votes, which are not just presidential ballots (which you would already know if you are a voter).

So you're cool with the Democratic Party holding lives hostage to try and shame Bernie into dropping out?

Absolutely not, hence the first sentence of my post.  I wish the Democratic Party would move it back, but it doesn't seem they will. 

True or False?  Regardless of the other races on the ballot, turnout will be lower if the Presidential primary is down to one candidate.

Now Bernie can compound the problem, or he can make a difficult decision that will save lives.

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Also, it's not unwinnable. Math is real.

🙂

[bad_teammate 13224]

Turnout would drop if Bernie suspended his campaign. It would also drop if Biden suspended his campaign.

A man is demanding the password and has a gun to someone's head. Bernie isn't giving up the password, and is trying to talk the guy out of it.

Biden is suggesting a second hostage.

[Rougarou 594]

13 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Biden led the entire damned way in terms of nationwide polling. Warren got close very very briefly and Sanders creeped slightly over him for about 2-3 weeks. Other than, it's been the Biden show.

Bernie couldn't ever beat Biden on Biden's terms. The only path for him was to forge an entirely new path and it didn't happen. Shooters shoot.

Biden owes Clyburn a lot.

That J-Curve tho 😍

[FondrenRoad 4378]

We should postpone all remaining primaries to the same date in mid June.  And we should do the same for every primary in 2024. 

[bad_teammate 13224]

Good. Now I hope everyone gets the message and stays the fuck home.

 

[Hank Scorpio 17729]

 

[Hank Kingsley 21028]

This fucking dumbass

 

[bad_teammate 13224]

Who cares? Biden doesn't need anyone under 50 to win.

He doesn't need independent voters. He doesn't need young people. He doesn't need leftists. He doesn't need unwoke people. He doesn't need factory workers who like their guns.

Fuck them all.

IT'S HIS TURN

[Henry Hill 3156]

[Hank Kingsley 21028]

21 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Who cares? Biden doesn't need anyone under 50 to win.

He doesn't need independent voters. He doesn't need young people. He doesn't need leftists. He doesn't need unwoke people. He doesn't need factory workers who like their guns.

Fuck them all.

IT'S HIS TURN

 

[bad_teammate 13224]

I think it would be a good idea for the Biden campaign and those who support him to reach out to gettable votes.

The left does purity tests on policy. The center does purity tests on personality.

I think that's bad.

[Hank Kingsley 21028]

12 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I think it would be a good idea for the Biden campaign and those who support him to reach out to gettable votes.

Thinking he won't is basically something you've made up in your head. 

And maybe it would speed up his process to reach Bernie voters when, you know, Bernie has actually dropped out of the race. 

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Hank Kingsley

[bad_teammate 13224]

Biden doesn't make himself available to basically anyone for interviews and he doesn't really have any surrogates who do it, either. This campaign has been going on for a year+ now. Perhaps his campaign will change strategies. I think it would be a good idea.

Am I wrong about anything I'm saying or is it just what you are reading into what I'm saying?

[cactusflinthead 27601]

On 4/3/2020 at 6:35 AM, bad_teammate said:

Also, it's not unwinnable. Math is real.

You like drawing to an inside straight?

Keep on rocking. 

47 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This fucking dumbass

 

Oh nice. He's made a Breitbart post.

Yeah Joe Rogan that's right. A cabinet of people that know what the fuck to do instead of ass kissers.