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2020 Democratic Nominee

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G650

G650 14106

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On 9/6/2018 at 7:00 PM, Spankytoes said:

The funny thing is that some people think the Dem candidate actually matters. There is no way Trump is not getting re-elected unless he dies first. I’d just about bet my house on it. Charectar assasinations have emboldened those that voted him the first time. I think people are oblivious to how fucking idiotic it is to underestimate the man. He is a master manipulator with a growing base of loyal followers that feel like they have no voice. Making the media the enemy was an ingenious move on his part, especially since they letter in hyperbole and clickbait. PC culture unleashed the fury and wrath of middle America that won’t be tamed for a generation. When boys are no longer boys, and whites are painted as aggressive oppressors, there’s going to be serious blowback. Parading a liberal candidate out there is a fruitless exercise. He is a “I don’t give a shit what others think” idol for patriotic citizens tired of bending over in a subservient manner to the rest of the world when we play the part of savior. Our idiocracy has reached its peak and 2 years is not nearly enough time to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

A failed impeachment will seal the deal. 

 

Hahaha.

 

I was just perusing to see who people thought the Dem candidates would reasonably be and came across this gem. Woof.

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No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
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i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104624

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Posted
 
Hahaha.
 
I was just perusing to see who people thought the Dem candidates would reasonably be and came across this gem. Woof.

He’s right. Layer on the facts that the GOP is 1) doing all it can to purge or otherwise prevent minorities from voting (it’s a strategy they’ve openly admitted to), and 2) fighting like hell to keep our voting systems vulnerable to hacking/outside interference, and it’s a done deal.

Trump may not have more people who want him to be president, but you can be assured he’ll get the most “votes.”
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G650

G650 14106

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


He’s right. Layer on the facts that the GOP is 1) doing all it can to purge or otherwise prevent minorities from voting (it’s a strategy they’ve openly admitted to), and 2) fighting like hell to keep our voting systems vulnerable to hacking/outside interference, and it’s a done deal.

Trump may not have more people who want him to be president, but you can be assured he’ll get the most “votes.”

I wasn't talking about his prediction of another Trump term. It's all the rest of the wackadoodle shit.

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Dropout

Dropout 355

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Posted
4 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Moot. He's worse off than last time. No nomination for him 

Yea no... Worse off than last time in what way? Going up against Clinton who was already proclaimed the winner when the primaries started. No one outside of Vermont even knew who Bernie was. There is no way he is worse off than last time. Down 20 points in an early CNN poll to Biden is nothing compared to down 80 points to Clinton in every poll in 2016 when the actual primaries began. He came damn close at the end of it.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Dropout said:

Yea no... Worse off than last time in what way? Going up against Clinton who was already proclaimed the winner when the primaries started. No one outside of Vermont even knew who Bernie was. There is no way he is worse off than last time. Down 20 points in an early CNN poll to Biden is nothing compared to down 80 points to Clinton in every poll in 2016 when the actual primaries began. He came damn close at the end of it.

Bernie is worse off because his supporters will be split up among other candidates.

Bernie was the Dem alternative to Hillary Clinton. 

That strength in 2016 will be nonexistent in 2020.

When it comes to Bernie and Warren, I’m pulling more for their good ideas catching fire within the Democratic Party than them actually winning the nomination. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Dropout said:

Yea no... Worse off than last time in what way? Going up against Clinton who was already proclaimed the winner when the primaries started. No one outside of Vermont even knew who Bernie was. There is no way he is worse off than last time. Down 20 points in an early CNN poll to Biden is nothing compared to down 80 points to Clinton in every poll in 2016 when the actual primaries began. He came damn close at the end of it.

Two words. Black people.

Bernie Sanders has got to win them if he wants to be the nominee. It is not better than last time. I saw a poll a minute ago that he's polling worse in NH too. 

Did I vote for him in the primary? Yep, sure did. 

He's not any better with Latinos either. 

I said he would have to work at getting the poc vote and he did bupkis. His worshippers have done the opposite, they have managed to piss off every color in the rainbow. 

See the article I replied to BT upthread. That's what I see in Twitterville every damn day. 

Imagine that. Irascible old man alienates people. Color me shocked.

Go to Jackson. Insult Obama. Sounds like a great plan!

Quote

 

Former President Barack Obama, Sanders said, was a “charismatic individual ... an extraordinary candidate, a brilliant man.” But “behind that reality,” Sanders said, Obama led a party whose “business model” has been a “failure” for more than a decade.

It served as the latest confirmation that Sanders, even as he tries for new footholds in the black community, hasn’t mastered his precarious relationship with a key Democratic Party constituency that he will need if he hopes to reshape the party going forward, much less make another presidential run in 2020.

 

Bernie Sanders struggles with new path to black voters

and from Harry Enten, https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/21/politics/nixon-black-voter-problem/index.html

Quote

 

Why are progressive insurgents struggling with black voters? Black Democrats are more likely to consider themselves moderate or conservative than other Democrats. They also are more likely to identify as Democrats instead of independents who lean Democratic.

That is, they are far more comfortable with the more moderate Democratic establishment than other Democrats are, especially whites.

Now obviously it's possible for progressive challengers to win a primary even with this difficulty (see Ocasio-Cortez). But until candidates like Nixon and Sanders solve their black voter problem, they're going to be limited in their electoral victories.

 

 

Edited by cactusflinthead
mo stuff
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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 14871

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Posted

The Dems did such a good job with Bill Clinton and Obama picking charismatic younger candidates. They need to do that again. Americans have proven they don’t give a shit about qualifications. Obama had none and Hillary was the best on paper in a long time. Didn’t matter. It’s a popularity contest.

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Pancho

Pancho 44479

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11 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

The Dems did such a good job with Bill Clinton and Obama picking charismatic younger candidates. They need to do that again. Americans have proven they don’t give a shit about qualifications. Obama had none and Hillary was the best on paper in a long time. Didn’t matter. It’s a popularity contest.

Beyoncé it is!

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Dropout

Dropout 355

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5 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Bernie is worse off because his supporters will be split up among other candidates.

Bernie was the Dem alternative to Hillary Clinton. 

That strength in 2016 will be nonexistent in 2020.

When it comes to Bernie and Warren, I’m pulling more for their good ideas catching fire wishin the Democratic Party than them actually winning the nomination. 

 

3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Two words. Black people.

Bernie Sanders has got to win them if he wants to be the nominee. It is not better than last time. I saw a poll a minute ago that he's polling worse in NH too. 

Did I vote for him in the primary? Yep, sure did. 

He's not any better with Latinos either. 

I said he would have to work at getting the poc vote and he did bupkis. His worshippers have done the opposite, they have managed to piss off every color in the rainbow. 

See the article I replied to BT upthread. That's what I see in Twitterville every damn day. 

Imagine that. Irascible old man alienates people. Color me shocked.

Go to Jackson. Insult Obama. Sounds like a great plan!

Bernie Sanders struggles with new path to black voters

and from Harry Enten, https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/21/politics/nixon-black-voter-problem/index.html

 

Bernie’s ideas have already caught fire as far as I can tell. Every democratic candidate has pretty much adopted whose ideas? I think it’s premature to assume his supporters will be drastically split among other candidates. I could probably more easily assume more supporters. But let’s assume they are split... are we also going to assume he won’t be one of the last ones standing towards the end of the primary? Where will those supporters go at the end? Joe Biden? They will return to Sanders in lieu of male Clinton version 2020. It will take a young new charismatic progressive to steal Bernie’s thunder. Someone like Beto doing something like he’s doing in Texas.

The established democrats will lose again to Trump repeating the same mistake just 4 painful years later pushing Biden as they have. Biden has zero chance of pulling any Trump supporters. A guy who was the VP for Obama has no chance. Bernie has a little better than zero percent chance of pulling some of those Trump votes. Given the political climate someone like Harris or Warren close to zero chance. Someone like Beto is a gamble. Democrats putting all their money on a big enough jump in voter turnout is simply a bad bet for the future of this country.

Bernie’s above criticisms of Obama were on point. IMO the best president of my generation fell right back into the old democratic playbook. He ran and campaigned on something different but the reality was more of the same. This is fact. How much of that can be attributed to him being handcuffed by Republicans will never be known. The black vote may not side with Bernie in the primary for reasons mentioned. But let’s not forget that’s just the beginning. Someone has to beat Trump. The black vote goes to Trump? The guy who supports white supremacists pushed blacks out of his buildings and probably spews derogatory remarks at will in private. Or does the black vote go to pretty much any democrat Bernie included. The guy who got arrested while he was young fighting segregation. The same story for the latino vote for different obvious reasons.

Bernie is the transition. He is the old white guy to pull some old white guy votes in order to buy time for the changing demographics to usher in a real progressive era. An era where a woman or minority can win an election and perhaps actually govern without being obstructed at every turn. None of this every action has an opposite and equal reaction mess we have found ourselves in since Obama. Or maybe I just get snapped back to reality and 4 more nightmarish years of Trump. Who knows what would follow that. While I am still optimistic Brisket’s POV is becoming more and more clear everyday. Need a momentum shift.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

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Posted

It's a long way to 2020. We're going to argue about it no matter who gets the nod. Hell, one of the twins is taking up the charge. Kamala is renting an office in Iowa. We're all political junkies in here. And not one of us knows what is going to happen. Peering into the cup trying to decipher the tea leaves. 

Who was it that drops by to remind us we aren't gone yet in a puff of smoke?

I kinda miss it. Sometimes I need a reminder. 

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm annoyed people, including the media, are already talking about dotus in 2020 as if he'll even be in the running.  If Mueller doesn't drop the hammer before then or he doesn't die, we are completely fucked and it doesn't fucking matter who is running against him.

Talking about Trump 2020 motivates democrats. 

How well the midterms go for the Democrats will greatly influence the calculation on impeachment and 2020.

In some calculations, it might be advantageous for democrats not to attempt impeachment.  

 I mean, they’ll make his life torture for two years with investigations and subpoenas.  It could get bad enough to where the Republicans want to remove him for strategic reasons.  This would of course require Fox News and his base to abandon him, but it could happen.

America has always loved a good execution.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 14871

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Posted
Talking about Trump 2020 motivates democrats. 
How well the midterms go for the Democrats will greatly influence the calculation on impeachment and 2020.
In some calculations, it might be advantageous for democrats not to attempt impeachment.  
 I mean, they’ll make his life torture for two years with investigations and subpoenas.  It could get bad enough to where the Republicans want to remove him for strategic reasons.  This would of course require Fox News and his base to abandon him, but it could happen.
America has always loved a good execution.


So goes the economy so goes Trump. If the economy keeps humming he won’t care how painful the Democrats try to make it and the Republicans won’t do anything. He’ll just keep his roadshow of self-aggrandizement going and only listen to people who tell him how great he is. Kinda like now.
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45495

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6 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Talking about Trump 2020 motivates democrats. 

How well the midterms go for the Democrats will greatly influence the calculation on impeachment and 2020.

In some calculations, it might be advantageous for democrats not to attempt impeachment.  

 I mean, they’ll make his life torture for two years with investigations and subpoenas.  It could get bad enough to where the Republicans want to remove him for strategic reasons.  This would of course require Fox News and his base to abandon him, but it could happen.

America has always loved a good execution.

You're looking at this in terms of politics.  I'm looking at it in terms of preserving our country and a legitimate government.  If he is not removed from office before 2020, our system will have failed.  It will mean that Mueller failed in his task as special counsel and the Senate will have failed in their task as a Senate.  If we get to 2020 with trump as an incumbent, it's way over.  I'll enjoy my scotch with Brisket.  And I don't drink scotch.

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 14871

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Posted
You're looking at this in terms of politics.  I'm looking at it in terms of preserving our country and a legitimate government.  If he is not removed from office before 2020, our system will have failed.  It will mean that Mueller failed in his task as special counsel and the Senate will have failed in their task as a Senate.  If we get to 2020 with trump as an incumbent, it's way over.  I'll enjoy my scotch with Brisket.  And I don't drink scotch.


If Mueller presents all of the evidence of criminal activity, as he is almost certain to do, how will he have failed?

If Trump is impeached and the Senate chooses not to remove him from office, that’s actually the system working as designed. It’s happened before in just the same way.

It may not be the outcome we want but where is the system failure?
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted
13 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

You're looking at this in terms of politics.  I'm looking at it in terms of preserving our country and a legitimate government.  If he is not removed from office before 2020, our system will have failed.  It will mean that Mueller failed in his task as special counsel and the Senate will have failed in their task as a Senate.  If we get to 2020 with trump as an incumbent, it's way over.  I'll enjoy my scotch with Brisket.  And I don't drink scotch.

 

Mueller’s task as special counsel isn’t to remove Trump, it’s to get the facts.

I believe our Repubic is strong enough to survive four years of Trump, but it will suck hard. 

It needs to suck hard so future generations don’t make the same mistakes. 

We got ourselves in this mess and we will have to get ourselves out. 

For the record, I still think Trump resigns in 2019. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is true, I'm just assuming, you know like a rational human, that the facts will bear out that the president is a colossal fuckwad criminal douchebag.

Right but we shouldn’t need Robert Mueller to tell us the Sun rose from the East yesterday morning and set in the West in the evening.

Kavanaugh was the perfect Mueller trial run to show everyone how much the GOP DGAF about criminality or facts when they’re in power. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted
Just now, Biff Tannen said:

We shouldn't, but apparently we do.  Or at least Congress does.

We run this shit.  This is all on us.  

If you haven’t watched “Winter on Fire” yet you absolutely should. 

That’s the proper response to a Kremlin puppet like Trump and they did it just because Yanukovych wasn’t going to join the EU. 

We are ignorant and weak as fuck and so are our elected officials. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45495

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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We run this shit.  This is all on us.  

If you haven’t watched “Winter on Fire” yet you absolutely should. 

That’s the proper response to a Kremlin puppet like Trump and they did it just because Yanukovych wasn’t going to join the EU. 

We are ignorant and weak as fuck and so are our elected officials. 

I have and you are correct.

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Dropout

Dropout 355

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Posted

I agree with all this. We talk about Trump bc that’s the reality right now. Sad! Literal worst case scenario. If Trump isn’t running in 2020 I would still pull for Bernie/Warren but give me Harris. That’s a big IF from where I’m standing right now. America is far too comfortable to revolt a la Ukraine.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18658

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19 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Right but we shouldn’t need Robert Mueller to tell us the Sun rose from the East yesterday morning and set in the West in the evening.

Kavanaugh was the perfect Mueller trial run to show everyone how much the GOP DGAF about criminality or facts when they’re in power. 

Well, yeah.

It's amazing Democrats can't sell that.

Then you see Hillary in the news right before a midterm and it all makes sense.

The party is run by morons.

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Bat Guano

Bat Guano 359

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1 hour ago, MixtyMotions said:

Most detestable to least:

Avenatti

Warren

Sanders

Steyer

Clinton

Harris

Brown

Booker

Newsome

Bloomberg

Kerry

Klobuchar

Biden

No Beto? You know if he wins he'll be running for POTUS immediately. Maybe if he loses, too. How detestable is he to you?

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted
1 hour ago, MixtyMotions said:

Most detestable to least:

Avenatti

Warren

Sanders

Steyer

Clinton

Harris

Brown

Booker

Newsome

Bloomberg

Kerry

Klobuchar

Biden

Excellent analysis Tahoe on what makes each detestable.  You might as well have titled your list “Candidates I’m most afraid of”

Keep up the great work. 

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Js1

Js1 85110

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Excellent analysis Tahoe on what makes each detestable.  You might as well have titled your list “Candidates I’m most afraid of”

Keep up the great work. 

"All of them"

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Js1

Js1 85110

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Posted

It's going to be one of the following:

-Biden (the biggest name)

-Warren (the big name, but not as big as Biden)

-Bernie (the runner-up)

-Harris (the Obama-esque wildcard)

Por que, you ask? Because you need:

- Name recognition in Iowa? (Check Bernie and Biden)

- Immediate ability to turn around and compete in NH (Warren and Bernie due to proximity and name and Biden due to name recognition) or Nevada (Bernie due to it being a caucus but Harris because of proximity - she can send her CA ground game over the border to organize)

- Ability to compete in the heavily AA SC democratic primary (Harris)

After these 4 races, you have Super Tuesday, which includes

- Harris' home state of CA

- Warren's home state of MA (and Oklahoma)

- Bernie's home state (Vermont)

- 3 "Southern" states in Bama and NC and Virginia that favor Harris due to demographics (25%+ AA as a share of the Democratic primary total)

- Also Texas and Tennessee

 

 

 

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