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2020 Democratic Nominee

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

What are the thoughts here on Gillibrand?

Fuck her for Al Franken.

23 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

One of them should run against Cornyn.....

 

Honestly--I have a hard time imagining a more uninspiring candidate than either of the Castro boys.

Give me Victoria Neave or Colin Allred or M.J. Hagar.

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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5 hours ago, Js1 said:

This. They’re not risk takers. Beto has bigger balls than both of them combined. 

Not risk takers?  The children of a political organizer and a math teacher from a working class neighborhood of West San Antonio.  They toss aside every obstacle ever put in their way to achieve what they've accomplished.  Rep. O'Rourke is more of a risk taker to you?  That guy has been handed more over the course of one year of his life than the Castro brothers ever would have gotten.  You can continue the worship of Rep. O'Rourke, but to say he's ballsier than the Castro brothers is without merit. 

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bolverk

bolverk 30323

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Not risk takers?  The children of a political organizer and a math teacher from a working class neighborhood of West San Antonio.  They toss aside every obstacle ever put in their way to achieve what they've accomplished.  Rep. O'Rourke is more of a risk taker to you?  That guy has been handed more over the course of one year of his life than the Castro brothers ever would have gotten.  You can continue the worship of Rep. O'Rourke, but to say he's ballsier than the Castro brothers is without merit. 

The way I see it is that Beto had the built-in support (and melanin) to allow him to rebel a little, not get into too much trouble, and find his way. I can relate. On the other hand, the Castro brothers had to follow a very narrow path within "the system" to get to where they are today. I certainly think it affects their public personas - if not personalities.

I'm honestly not sure which makes for a better candidate as both require different skill sets. I'm willing to look at all comers at this point.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
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5 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Fuck her for Al Franken.

Honestly--I have a hard time imagining a more uninspiring candidate than either of the Castro boys.

Give me Victoria Neave or Colin Allred or M.J. Hagar.

Agreed about the Castro brothers. Joaquin was completely overshadowed by Beto when they shared a mic. Julian is not much better. At this point either of them could lose the primary if they run for Senate against someone like Colin Allred.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3966

Posted
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1 minute ago, RayDog said:

Agreed about the Castro brothers. Joaquin was completely overshadowed by Beto when they shared a mic. Julian is not much better. At this point either of them could lose the primary if they run for Senate against someone like Colin Allred.

Allred may be a contender although not much experience.  Neave with her DUI and Hagar being 0-1 are silly options.

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8350

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14 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

My position is the corruption at all levels in our society is what led us to Trump.  The racism and the GOP’s coddling/pandering of it is part of the corruption I’m talking about.  

They care about nothing but winning at all costs.  This is corruption.  

Are they winning for everyday people or their corporate/foreign masters that keep them in office?  Corruption.

How they use religion solely as a tool to keep power? Corruption 

The entire conservative movement has been subverted and overrun with con men and grifters serving the highest bidder and the highest bidders are some of the worst human beings on the planet (Putin, Mercers, Kochs).

Then Trump came along.

There are no more “good ideas” on the right that will move this county to a better place.  Lie, cheat, and steal as much as possible before you die is the new GOP doctrine.  It wasn’t always this way.

 A reincarnated Mark Twain would not agree. (Though it's duly noted that said that the GOP was like this 100 years ago, time, flat circle, etc.) This is from his autobiography. 

“Jay Gould was the mightiest disaster which has ever befallen this country. The people had desired money before his day, but he taught them to fall down and worship it. They had respected men of means before his day, but along with this respect was joined the respect due to the character and industry which had accumulated it. But Jay Gould taught the entire nation to make a god of the money and the man, no matter how the money might have been acquired.” 

4 hours ago, Lobo said:

Not risk takers?  The children of a political organizer and a math teacher from a working class neighborhood of West San Antonio.  They toss aside every obstacle ever put in their way to achieve what they've accomplished.  Rep. O'Rourke is more of a risk taker to you?  That guy has been handed more over the course of one year of his life than the Castro brothers ever would have gotten.  You can continue the worship of Rep. O'Rourke, but to say he's ballsier than the Castro brothers is without merit. 

You act like they grew up somewhere like Amarillo or Nashville. Rising in the ranks as a Mexican-American in San Antonio politics is hardly Barbara Jordan-level obstacle crushing. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Castro and O’Rourke are practically interchangeable. Both would be shitty presidents. 

I disagree. Whomever is elected in 2020 could preside over some of the most important legislative achievements in recent history if Bernie's and Warren's best legislative proposals are passed along with a new voting rights act. While it will take a combined effort, that president will get lots of credit and could conceivably become the greatest in recent history in some respects.

The tough part is overcoming the corporate interests who are opposed to healthcare,  anti-corruption, the green new deal, and other reforms. The right person who can provide the leadership necessary to do that would be great. I think Beto could do that.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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7 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

 

You act like they grew up somewhere like Amarillo or Nashville. Rising in the ranks as a Mexican-American in San Antonio politics is hardly Barbara Jordan-level obstacle crushing. 

SW Chicago actually.  Castro did "crush" it.  In nearly 175 years as a Hispanic-dominated American City, they've had what---3 Hispanic mayors in that whole timeframe?  Plus he was the youngest mayors in U.S. history of a city with more than a million people.  Yes, rising through City Council down there isn't impressive, but everything else he's achieved has come quickly, with merit, and even integrity.    He comes out of a subpar public school and very humble background, to attend Stanford undergrad, and Harvard Law.  One of only a handful of Hispanics to serve in the Cabinet, and certainly one of the youngest ever.  And on the shortlist for Hillary's V.P. in 2016.  All before he's barely in his 40's.  That's an ascension that should impress people, not Rep. O'Rourke's.   If Castro is still in the field when Texas' primaries come around, I look forward to supporting him.  

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Js1

Js1 87178

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

What risks has Beto taken? He's a rich guy (married to an heiress to extreme wealth) who could afford to travel the state for a year+? Did he fight some wolves?

He opted to run against Cruz and not for re-election and give up his House seat, win or lose.  Meanwhile, the Castros sat at home while Lupe Valdez tried to take on Abbott and Patrick got elected LG.

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UTDD

UTDD 362

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Posted
11 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Although she's supposedly evolved on gay rights, this type of shit will kill her before she gets far.... unless she's propped up by dat Russian money, yo.

 

Many amongst the roughly 1 to 2 thousand people that run a lot of the elite political/business arenas in Hawaii (especially Waialae Country Club conversations on a nice weekend day by the ocean away from the Pacific/Plaza type downtown area clubs) could probably tell you a story about her.  She knew/knows how to network and she is fairly unique for Hawaii in that a small percentage of well connected locals in Hawaii are very embedded in both the standard political/business/non-profit elite but also the defense industry/military arena which makes sense with her military background.  (Many people outside of Hawaii don't realize how strong the defense industry is for the state both in terms of economic impact, jobs, and influence)  The most dominant politician possibly in all of Hawaii history (certainly modern age in Daniel Inouye) was also very embedded in both of these worlds with equal power and strength at the top.   She's incredibly ambitious and waaaay back on the City Council it was obvious she was very different than her father Mike but she's only 37-38 or so I think, plus she's Hindu.  There are some rumblings in Hawaii that she actually has a different goal specifically for 2020 than President and if you think about it carefully I think it's maybe obvious given her current age and situation.  I did chuckle at her "Saudi Arabia's bitch" Tweet though.  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13511

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

He opted to run against Cruz and not for re-election and give up his House seat, win or lose. 

So, like every other politician that runs for higher office on-cycle? When's the Profiles in Courage documentary?

I wouldn't mind if Beto was the next president, but let's not pretend that running for office is an act of courage.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3966

Posted
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3 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

So, like every other politician that runs for higher office on-cycle? When's the Profiles in Courage documentary?

I wouldn't mind if Beto was the next president, but let's not pretend that running for office is an act of courage.

It's an act of ambition.  But it's also dubious to say it doesn't take some balls to run for another office in which the incumbent won by 16% last time.  Regardless, it's a silly argument.  Folks don't like the Castro's?  Fine, their right but Texas D's don't have many folks with name appeal.  

Moving on... Kamala.

 

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Js1

Js1 87178

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9 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

 

 

 


Beto is my guy but I really like Harris too and I think we’re going to see a lot of more casual “real” pieces like this during this election cycle.

 

This is her 2nd Spotify playlist video since she got to DC.

She got some good music taste.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13511

Posted
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Love to dab and pop the whip with literal 21st century slavers. #EPICWIN #THERESISTANCE

She was shocked when she found out what her office was arguing in court, though. Just blown away.

Quote

"I will be very candid with you, because I saw that article this morning, and I was shocked, and I'm looking into it to see if the way it was characterized in the paper is actually how it occurred in court," Harris told BuzzFeed News in an interview Monday. "I was very troubled by what I read. I just need to find out what did we actually say in court."

I'd be interested to see some investigative reporting into either (1) why the AG wouldn't know her own office's arguments in a case like this or (2) who she actually talked to about it and was/is lying about.

Because, you know... literal slavery in the 21st century.

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8350

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/kamala-harris-truths-we-hold-review/579430/

OVYnl20.png

 

Kamala needs to be constantly questioned about this kind of thing in the primaries. This is pretty gross

 

Like I said, she just gives Pantsuit Nation the feels. "A woman! A blek! A dot Indian! So much intersectionality! And she's mean to Republicans in hearings! She's got my vote, who cares about her record!"

Plus she shares a name with this fella. 

kamala.jpg

Edited by MaybeACoordinator
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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3871

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Data to support my belief that 2020 election is already over.  There is no upward or downward possibility in support for Trump.  All negatives and probably all positives are already baked in.

 

His approval ratings just don't move.

 

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/245567/trump-approval-stable-approval-prior-presidents.aspx?g_source=link_NEWSV9&g_medium=SIDEBOTTOM&g_campaign=item_203207&g_content=Trump%20Approval%20More%20Stable%20Than%20Approval%20for%20Prior%20Presidents

 

Very low approval rating (lowest on here) tied to very low standard deviation (smallest on here).

 

 

Average and Standard Deviation in Presidential Job Approval Ratings During First Two Years in Office
  Average Approval Rating Standard Deviation
  %  
Trump (Jan 2017-Dec 2018) 39 2.3
Nixon (Jan 1969-Jan 1971) 59 4.0
Johnson (Nov 1963-Nov 1965) 75 4.9
Eisenhower (Jan 1953-Jan 1955) 67 5.0
Kennedy (Jan 1961-Jan 1963) 74 5.1
Clinton (Jan 1993-Jan 1995) 48 5.4
Obama (Jan 2009-Jan 2011) 52 6.8
Ford (Aug 1974-Aug 1976) 48 7.2
G.H.W. Bush (Jan 1989-Jan 1991) 70 7.7
Reagan (Jan 1981-Jan 1983) 50 8.4
Carter (Jan 1977-Jan 1979) 54 10.0
G.W. Bush (Jan 2001-Jan 2003) 70 11.0
Truman (Apr 1945-Apr 1947) 61 16.0
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Data to support my belief that 2020 election is already over.  There is no upward or downward possibility in support for Trump.  All negatives and probably all positives are already baked in.

 

His approval ratings just don't move.

 

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/245567/trump-approval-stable-approval-prior-presidents.aspx?g_source=link_NEWSV9&g_medium=SIDEBOTTOM&g_campaign=item_203207&g_content=Trump%20Approval%20More%20Stable%20Than%20Approval%20for%20Prior%20Presidents

 

Very low approval rating (lowest on here) tied to very low standard deviation (smallest on here).

 

 

Average and Standard Deviation in Presidential Job Approval Ratings During First Two Years in Office
  Average Approval Rating Standard Deviation
  %  
Trump (Jan 2017-Dec 2018) 39 2.3
Nixon (Jan 1969-Jan 1971) 59 4.0
Johnson (Nov 1963-Nov 1965) 75 4.9
Eisenhower (Jan 1953-Jan 1955) 67 5.0
Kennedy (Jan 1961-Jan 1963) 74 5.1
Clinton (Jan 1993-Jan 1995) 48 5.4
Obama (Jan 2009-Jan 2011) 52 6.8
Ford (Aug 1974-Aug 1976) 48 7.2
G.H.W. Bush (Jan 1989-Jan 1991) 70 7.7
Reagan (Jan 1981-Jan 1983) 50 8.4
Carter (Jan 1977-Jan 1979) 54 10.0
G.W. Bush (Jan 2001-Jan 2003) 70 11.0
Truman (Apr 1945-Apr 1947) 61 16.0

 

Yet another reason I don’t think Trump will run.  

We really need to start considering who the GOP might put up other than Trump.  

You can see some positioning going on by Lindsey Graham and Rand Paul pandering to the Trump base.

You also see Romney and Kasich trying to pull off the compassionate conservative schtick. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Yet another reason I don’t think Trump will run.  

We really need to start considering who the GOP might put up other than Trump.  

You can see some positioning going on by Lindsey Graham and Rand Paul pandering to the Trump base.

You also see Romney and Kasich trying to pull off the compassionate conservative schtick. 

And then there is Vulvarine.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34626

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Isn't most movement in approval ratings for first termers in the last half(ish) part of the their term.... at least downward?  Then a pop up towards election time?

 

 

The chart states that they are only analyzing approval ratings during a Presidents first two years in office.

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Js1

Js1 87178

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I'm more sympathetic to a female former-conservative than a male former-conservative. There's more pressure on a woman to appear "tough" than a man.

Near 180 from blue dog to progressive post-NY senate appointment. Bothers me a bit. 

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