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2020 Democratic Nominee

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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You don't get access to the secret harassment app until you get enough get enough Twitter blocks and reports.

In all seriousness, I invite any of you to check the app out if you're good-faith concerned.

I asked henry if he'd ever been involved in any kind of political action. I didn't get an answer, but my assumption is "no" and I would also assume "no" for pretty much everyone here. Even in Obama's 2012 campaign, which was huge, the number of people who we had actively involved on the management side was pretty low. (Obama '08, Kerry '04, Gore '00 were all smaller) So it's normal for people to not actually know how these things work.

If you're actually curious...

The premise is simple: Campaign funds and volunteers are limited.
- If we're going to spend money on mailers, who do they go to?
- If we're going to spend volunteer hours on block-walking, where do we send them?
- If we're going to spend money on ads, who do we show the ads?

That's basic. Every state/national campaign worth a shit targets at that level.

Each campaign builds its own voter file and guards it preciously (and sells it, either in whole or bits and pieces). That voter file has all of the information the BERN app collects and more. The software to scrape the public data (voting records, registration, addresses, phone numbers, place of work, etc...) has been in place for decades at this point.

All the Bernie campaign is getting from the BERN app at this point is this: Is it worth our resources to talk to this person?

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29176

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12 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I asked henry if he'd ever been involved in any kind of political action. I didn't get an answer, but my assumption is "no" and I would also assume "no" for pretty much everyone here. Even in Obama's 2012 campaign, which was huge, the number of people who we had actively involved on the management side was pretty low. (Obama '08, Kerry '04, Gore '00 were all smaller) So it's normal for people to not actually know how these things work.

i actually didn't see the question (it was in between other fun stuff) but my answer is no (no quotes necessary).  my old roommate and one of my best friends was pretty involved with socal obama volunteer groups in 2008 and lesser so in 2012, so i got a general sense of his role (and his group's role) but never devoted time to it myself.  even within his small group of his small group, there seemed to be people who assisted on occasion all the way up to people who seemed to make their entire life revolve around it.

i have several friend-of-friend types that are currently doing it for beto and were pretty heavy in his senate campaign.  i respect all their volunteer work.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29176

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5 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

#RESISTANCE Dems have strong, stable brains

 

"hey stranger, nice to meet you.  since i know your name now, you mind if i share your views with this online database i'm contributing to?  i don't really need your permission."

there was definitely a smarter way to word this stuff.

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Js1

Js1 85109

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

republicans have been doing this shit for so long i only assumed they'd be better at it by now.

No these new wave grifters like Wohl and Owens are just shitty versions of Atwater and Rove 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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10 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

"hey stranger, nice to meet you.  since i know your name now, you mind if i share your views with this online database i'm contributing to?  i don't really need your permission."

there was definitely a smarter way to word this stuff.

Act II, Scene 3 - In which a grown man pretends to be shocked by normal life that's been happening forever

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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1 minute ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

That poll with Biden making a huge jump is.....disappointing. 

An announcement bump is expected and he's been leading in the polls without even entering.

He's failed spectacularly twice, and it will be interesting to see if his candidacy is Too Big To Fail at this point.

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Js1

Js1 85109

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38 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Seems like Warren is making some gains.  Top 3 and 8% is the best I've seen for her.   Biden seems to be taking from Beto and Kamala, but Warren's core is solid. 

FUCK YES.

GET SOME EW.  

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gmr548

gmr548 16512

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Seems like Warren is making some gains.  Top 3 and 8% is the best I've seen for her.   Biden seems to be taking from Beto and Kamala, but Warren's core is solid. 

I would imagine Warren is probably the candidate least hurt by Biden's entry. Her supporters aren't real likely to flip to Biden, unlike many other candidates. Bernie is really the only one in her political lane. Bernie loses the frontrunner angle now, so Biden does hurt him more. The same thing that protects her from Biden is also what is likely to hold her back though: the D primary electorate largely knows who she is and she's still stable at 7-10 percent. She isn't likely to pull supporters from some of the more establishment or moderate candidates. Bernie supporters, in the event he goes under, are really the only ones out there for her. But it's hard to envision Bernie not carrying a loyal following to the convention.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Js1

Js1 85109

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6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Warren and Bernie have the least to fear from Biden as far as defections. If you look at Harris and Beto's numbers, though, yikes.

A) Yeah, Warren and Bernie have a different base of support than Biden.

B) Harris and Beto take the biggest hit from Biden, but then I'd say they may be the biggest beneficiary if (when) he busts. 

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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23 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The same thing that protects her from Biden is also what is likely to hold her back though: the D primary electorate largely knows who she is and she's still stable at 7-10 percent. She isn't likely to pull supporters from some of the more establishment or moderate candidates. 

Although this is a reasonable take, I think (and hope) that it's wrong.   I think that the electorate thinks they know who Warren is, but largely based on misconceptions.   I think the more people hear from her, particularly in the debates, she's really going to appeal to a lot of Dems who haven't given her much thought so far.   We're already seeing this in smaller situations, like how she blew the audience away, and particularly black women, at that multi-candidate event last week. 

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Js1

Js1 85109

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3 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Although this is a reasonable take, I think (and hope) that it's wrong.   I think that the electorate thinks they know who Warren is, but largely based on misconceptions.   I think the more people hear from her, particularly in the debates, she's really going to appeal to a lot of Dems who haven't given her much thought so far.   We're already seeing this in smaller situations, like how she blew the audience away, and particularly black women, at that multi-candidate event last week. 

She's going to go on the debate stage and talk about ideas and plans, while the rest blow hot air and generic platitudes.

It will make a difference. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16512

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Although this is a reasonable take, I think (and hope) that it's wrong.   I think that the electorate thinks they know who Warren is, but largely based on misconceptions.   I think the more people hear from her, particularly in the debates, she's really going to appeal to a lot of Dems who haven't given her much thought so far.   We're already seeing this in smaller situations, like how she blew the audience away, and particularly black women, at that multi-candidate event last week. 
She's going to go on the debate stage and talk about ideas and plans, while the rest blow hot air and generic platitudes.
It will make a difference. 

I hope so as much as anyone. When it comes to things you want to believe, you have to scrutinize them especially hard. Her approach, as much as I appreciate it personally, is not what the electorate typically responds to. I doubt that changes this cycle, but we'll see I suppose.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Js1

Js1 85109

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6 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Consider me skeptical that the debates will really change much unless Biden calls her a c**t or something and people finally drop him.

Last time he was in a presidential primary debate stage, he called Obama a clean and articulate black guy.

Don't discount how dumbass he can get.  That was panned in 2007; he will get killed for saying something similar in 2019. 

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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I get that, but he's got a base that likely isn't going to care that much because many of them aren't going to tune in for a single debate. I'd like to see some polling after the first few debates on percentages of people who changed their primary vote based on performance.

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Zavala

Zavala 1384

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5 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Because it's Biden's turn!

I think they pick Biden because he will raise and funnel the most money, but dang he sounded like a worn out drunk in this speech recently.

Skip to 2:30

 

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American Swindle

American Swindle 102

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I appreciate her sincerity and passion and her desire to “end all war”, as she puts it.

I think it’s a bit naive but I believe she’s honest in her beliefs.

But for her to say there’s no difference in Trump and the other democratic candidates just because they don’t meet her purity test on this issue is utter hogwash.

That, along with her past association with Assad and her sketchy association with anti-gay groups makes her the only democratic candidate I cannot support.

She has no shot at the nomination, so I’ll never be faced with the Trump or Gabbard Sophie’s Choice.


Has Trump or any of the other Democratic candidates been as vocal about ending war as she has? How many have criticized Trump for being Saudi’s Arabia’s bitch, as she put it, and enabling them to commit the atrocities in Yemen? If you are saying that her position that Trump and most Democratic candidates are the same regarding their skirting of these issues (which, you know...result in MAJOR LOSS OF HUMAN LIFE) is hogwash, then I respectfully disagree.

According to CNN, she’s tied at 2% with Booker

But you wouldn’t know it by the coverage she’s received.

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4667

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10 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Because it's Biden's turn!

Lesson No. 4 from 2016 election - beware the candidate who if way past her "Use or Freeze by" date.

Interestingly, on the News Hour last night, one of the pundits was saying that Booker would be doing better if he wasn't in the Senate -- then he could be the outsider, recent Mayor like Mayor Peter.

I was kind of impressed with Cosa 1 Castro  the other day as well.

If Biden looks tired or old in any of the debates, people will quickly jump to the the "mainstream" dem who distinguishes him or herself.  At least I hope so.

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4667

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42 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

The new Biden polling is depressing.  Jesus Christ if he, out of everybody, gets the nomination...  What's even the fucking point of having these elections if Trump and Biden are our choices?

I don't think a slab of ham between two slices of white bread is the greatest tribute to human culinary endeavor, but it's better than a pile of pig shit.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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8 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

I don't think a slab of ham between two slices of white bread is the greatest tribute to human culinary endeavor, but it's better than a pile of pig shit.

You are giving Biden far too much credit.  He doesn't have Trump's eccentricities but a Biden administration would not be that different from the current administration in practice.  

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Just now, David Dennison said:

It would be very different. It just wouldn't be progressive.

His cabinet would be filled with similar people with similar beliefs and objectives.  Then if the economy cools off we get President Tom Cotton in 2024 and y'all will be pining for the days of the Trump presidency.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18656

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1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

His cabinet would be filled with similar people with similar beliefs and objectives.  Then if the economy cools off we get President Tom Cotton in 2024 and y'all will be pining for the days of the Trump presidency.

Yes, they would all be neo-liberal capitalists.

Tulsi Gabbard would have a similar cabinet.

So would Bernie Sanders.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Just now, David Dennison said:

Yes, they would all be neo-liberal capitalists.

Tulsi Gabbard would have a similar cabinet.

So would Bernie Sanders.

If you are this cynical why even discuss electoral politics?  Only options in your view appear to be resignation to our collective fate or violent direct action.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18656

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2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

If you are this cynical why even discuss electoral politics?  Only options in your view appear to be resignation to our collective fate or violent direct action.

Because I know the blue team will be in charge again soon. I also know that change is slow and that the blue team is currently made up of wealthy individuals who have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. This is America, after all, and the business of America is business. I keep voting for the blue team because some of the people on that team are not traditional neo-liberal capitalists. But it's going to take a very long time before capitalism is reined in in this country. The proletariat still believes in the American Dream. That is to the advantage of capital. 

 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20697

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38 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i said it a week ago and it's happening.

i think you guys are underestimating how much biden is playing to the "i want someone who can beat trump" crowd.

people are blinded by this, and for good reason.  

The reasoning is extremely flawed. Acting like we can properly predict "who can beat Trump" based off polls/punditry is a huge mistake.

People like Joe Biden are part of the reason we ended up with Dotard in the Oval Office. 

 

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